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Joffrey Lupul Next Season

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Old
05-26-2011, 04:52 PM
  #51
Schenn
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I have some modestly high expectations, if he can stay healthy. I will say 33G, 41A.

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05-26-2011, 04:55 PM
  #52
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50-55 points over a full season is a reasonable expectation for him.

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05-26-2011, 04:57 PM
  #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Not sure why you keep disputing my post when your figures and expectations are similar to mine, which were based on what they should be based on contract $.

Take Boston for example as they're a Cup contender, a division rival for our Leafs and division leader. Lets compare Lupul's salary (outside of the vacuum) of Leafs team only, now to our competition.

Their highest paid forward Bergeron @$4.75 mil (80 games 22-35-57 points) is +$500k more than Lupul, who would be #2 @$4.25 mil highest among Boston's forwards.

Boston's entire 1st line Cap and production consisted of;

Milan Lucic @$4.08 mil (79 games 30-32-62 points)
David Krejci @$3.75 mil (75 games 13-49-62 points)
Nathan Horton $4.0 mil (80 games 26-27-53 points)

So why do you feel its unreasonable to expect Lupul making slightly more $$ and also playing on Leafs top line shouldn't be expected to produce in comparison similarly to our Div rivals top line, if we want our Leafs to be a competitive playoff team?.

If teams have 4 or 5 players outproducing our #2 highest than it makes it that much tougher to remain competitive. We certainly are not going to gain the advantage defensively as Bruins are one of the lowest goals against best defensive teams in the league.
Haha I DO Think that Lupul can be that productive. I'm saying that if he can put up "Nathan Horton" numbers, lets say 25 and 25... thats definitely adequate production for a 4.25 million dollar forward. So if thats what you're saying, then we DO agree.

Also I think we can't just look at a forward group, we have to look at the big picture. For example in Reimer (assuming he plays similar to last year thats a diff argument though) we have likely only 1.5-2 million plus a backup, so lets say 4 million (overestimate) tied up in goal. Thomas is making 6+ so what we save there we can spend somewhere else. While Thomas may be better than Reimer is he 4.5 million better? Thats up for debate. Same goes for defense.

A contending team can have a bad contract or two provided theyve also got a couple bargains. You need your salary to be spread out evenly through your forwards, defense and goalies. It's not the end of the world if your top line is making 1/4 or 1/3 of your teams salary if you can balance that out by having some young guys on ELC's spread through your lineup.

The key is balance and I hope that whatever moves Burke makes going forward he keeps everything in perspective. He has shown that he has good cap management skills in his career for the most part, and I hope he continues down that road.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Schenn View Post
I have some modestly high expectations, if he can stay healthy. I will say 33G, 41A.
So Lupul is now bobby ryan?

I wish I wish, but I think we gotta keep the expectations a little more "modest" than that!

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05-26-2011, 05:01 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by mooseOAK View Post
No one carries a roster of 23 players these days, 19 or 20 is more like it.
Well teams dress 20 players (12-6-2) for a regulation NHL game so not sure how many NHL teams you feel carry only 19 regularly?

Only in tight cap situations or injuries are teams at times playing a man short but its certainly not desirable nor preferable..

That is more a direct result of GM with bad cap management skills, or my point about overpaying players and having it hurt your team if they don't produce accordingly because it cuts into the rest of your 23 allowable NHL roster.

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05-26-2011, 05:06 PM
  #55
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To me, this guy is the definition of "injury-prone".

Hopefully he can prove that he can actually be a healthy NHL player, for his own sake and for the Leafs'.

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05-26-2011, 05:21 PM
  #56
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Lupul and Kessel have fantastic chemistry and Lupul is actually a pretty good playmaker too, he made some nice passes to Kessel quite often. They just need a centre that fits their line and skill levels (no offense, Bozak).

A healthy, motivated Lupul with lots of ice time has the potential to score at least 25, maybe even 30 next season. He was scoring at a 25 goal pace in his time with the Leafs this season and that was after coming off a major injury where he clearly looked slower and not in the best shape.

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05-26-2011, 05:21 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by stanleyorbust View Post
First trade... because of "potential"
second trade... because of Cap

He is lazy... read up on the boards of the teams he has played for.. they all say he is lazy and floats.
Oh No! Not the boards!

Burke knows exactly what Lupul is.

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05-26-2011, 05:22 PM
  #58
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I'd expect about 25-25 from him. However the potential for a lot more is there -- he started off really slow and missed a number of quality chances. You could see the more he played the better he got though -- he seem faster and his shot seemed to get better. He also found some good chemistry with Kessel -- for all the people who thought he was a horrible fit, they seemed to work together pretty well.

If we can pot 25 goals and 50-or-so points then I won't have a problem with him playing on our first-line or making 4 mil.

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05-26-2011, 05:27 PM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Influence View Post
20 goals, 50ish points total. Although that could go up or down depending on who the Centre is.
Pretty much what he said

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05-26-2011, 05:29 PM
  #60
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these links never work for me got going to try anyways


Last edited by Mess: 05-26-2011 at 05:36 PM.
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Old
05-26-2011, 05:32 PM
  #61
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Joffrey Lupul is a player that can put the puck up when hes in front of the goal with regular success to score those garbage goals.

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Old
05-26-2011, 05:34 PM
  #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Example a top line $$$:

Lupul $4.25 mil + Richards $7-8 mil + Kessel $5.5 mil = ~$18 mil of a $60 mil Team Salary Cap = 30% or nearly 1/3 of your teams total salary Cap tied up in only 3 players one of which the player in question Lupul.

Your remaining 20 players (9 forwards, 6 dmen, 2 goalies + 3 spares) on your 23 man roster can now only account for the 2/3 balance remaining.

So as you can see 3 players invested @ 1/3 cap cost + 20 players = 2/3 cost than those 3 players better be highly productive and if Lupul is one of those 3 players he better increase his linemates production significantly as that line will be relied on to carry the team.
I guess what I was saying is that if Kessel is putting 70/80 + points, I will be very happy with Lupul scoring 55p.

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05-26-2011, 05:36 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Well lets look at this from a Team perspective and bang for your buck $$ in a cap World, irregardless of the unknown center as of today.

Lupul is the Leafs 2nd highest paid forward bringing in $4.25 mil per in cap hit to the team. That means he is being paid like a #3-4 forward league wide.

Therefore he is likely to play on the top line with Kessel and based on his salary should be putting up 25-30-55 points minimum. So as the team gets more competitive his remuneration should be a reflection on his contribution made to the team. Good Cup competitive teams don't have the luxury of paying out high salaries without getting production worthy of it, without it affecting the team negatively in the big picture.

In comparison Kulemin playing on the 2nd line at 1/2 the $$ is producing 30-27-57 points. While Grabs at $2.9 mil recorded 29-29-58 points.
I think the logic of why Lupul should reach those numbers is sound but I would like to add that it is difficult to compare the cap structure of a contending team to that of a rebuilding team like ours. I know that we will be turning the corner soon and will have to look at that stuff but some of the contracts we carry are stop gap contracts that fill cap space because we don't have an internal budget.

By the time we can reasonably be seen competing for a cup, players like Kule and Grabo are going to be on bigger contracts. That is the time we have to evaluate contract values closely like we do now. Maybe then Lupul doesn't make the cut or a player like Grabo. Until then it is really only a fun game.

Also, there are more factors to contracts then simple point totals. I think that at 50-60 pts, Lupul earns his money based on his output, chemistry with Kessel (if it continues) and I also think he brings some needed leadership qualities to that group of forwards.

Lupul at 4.5 is going to be a movable asset for awhile, unless he gets seriously hurt again.

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05-26-2011, 05:44 PM
  #64
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If he's healthy, he's show he's capable of 20-25 goals and about 50 points. And asides from 07-08, when he averaged 18 minutes in ice time, he's only average more than 16 minutes per game once (05-06). If he gets 1st line minutes, those goals shouldn't be unreasonable at all.

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05-26-2011, 08:35 PM
  #65
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I have a really good gut feeling about Lupul having healthy, productive season. I expected pretty much nothing out of him, but he was rock solid out there for us. I see him flirting with 30 goals / 30 assists type season.

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05-26-2011, 09:01 PM
  #66
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I'd be happy with 20-20 for his first full season as a Leaf. 20-30 I'd be ecstatic.

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05-26-2011, 09:28 PM
  #67
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Hey if he can score 20+ I'd be okay

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05-26-2011, 09:34 PM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stanleyorbust View Post
This.... I don't think anyone has ever questioned Lupul's talent and ability. He has what it takes skill wise to be a top 3 winger... When drafted he was compared to Mike Bossy... thought to be the best scorer available in the draft. YES better than Nash at the time.

He's been held back by injuries, constant movement from team to team, and teams give up on him because he is "lazy" I wonder if he has a little Zherdev syndrome going on? Lots of talent, shy on the drive.

IF he finally put it all together, he definitely has a 30-35 Goal/ 70pt season in him skill wise.. but I just don't see it happening. People were so excited with the leafs winning they overlooked how he would disappear for games on end and you would barely notice him.

With or without a top line center... I'd be inclined to predict a 25/25 season from him and being the new whipping dog all season long.. I hope he proves me wrong!
Lazy?? The guy loses 30 pounds recovering from back surgery and a blood inection, works his ass off training, puts all the weight back on, then puts up fantasic numbers while being centred by Bozak. Nothing lazy about that my friend.

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05-26-2011, 09:40 PM
  #69
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Schenn View Post
I have some modestly high expectations, if he can stay healthy. I will say 33G, 41A.
Modestly high?

I'd love to hear jfried's explanation for how hes a waste of cap if he does that.

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Old
05-26-2011, 10:10 PM
  #70
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22 goals

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Old
05-27-2011, 01:26 AM
  #71
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Originally Posted by Pheasant the peasant View Post
What, exacty, goes entirely wrong when people make predictions?
They fall short and then people consider the season a failure.

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Old
05-27-2011, 07:52 AM
  #72
Pheasant the peasant
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Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
They fall short and then people consider the season a failure.
So we should expect nothing, then the season will be considered a success?

You do realize that there are dozens of hockey analysts, web sites and magazines who will make predictions, right? Whether we do or not. And they will probably be similar to the average one here.

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05-27-2011, 08:53 AM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Mess View Post
Not sure why you keep disputing my post when your figures and expectations are similar to mine, which were based on what they should be based on contract $.

Take Boston for example as they're a Cup contender, a division rival for our Leafs and division leader. Lets compare Lupul's salary (outside of the vacuum) of Leafs team only, now to our competition.

Their highest paid forward Bergeron @$4.75 mil (80 games 22-35-57 points) is +$500k more than Lupul, who would be #2 @$4.25 mil highest among Boston's forwards.

Boston's entire 1st line Cap and production consisted of;

Milan Lucic @$4.08 mil (79 games 30-32-62 points)
David Krejci @$3.75 mil (75 games 13-49-62 points)
Nathan Horton $4.0 mil (80 games 26-27-53 points)

So why do you feel its unreasonable to expect Lupul making slightly more $$ and also playing on Leafs top line shouldn't be expected to produce in comparison similarly to our Div rivals top line, if we want our Leafs to be a competitive playoff team?.

If teams have 4 or 5 players outproducing our #2 highest than it makes it that much tougher to remain competitive. We certainly are not going to gain the advantage defensively as Bruins are one of the lowest goals against best defensive teams in the league.
...and if the Leafs had signed Chara (who wanted to sign here) rather than Kubina and Gill ...then would not have needed to trade Rask ...we would likely be the team in the Finals

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Old
05-27-2011, 09:23 AM
  #74
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I like it how someone pointed out the bruins first line salary and production, we got that out of our second line this year for 1/2 of the cost.

I mean, it won't stay that way (will be more expensive) but I one of the things I really like about the current team is the strength of our second line, and depth wins playoff series'.

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Old
05-27-2011, 02:16 PM
  #75
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I he's capable of being a regular 30-30 per season guy.It still amazes me that Lupul was traded by the Anaheim Ducks along with Jake Gardiner and a conditional 2013 draft pick to the Leafs for...François Beauchemin.My god they were robbed!

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