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Geoff Paukovich vs. Kyrill Lyamin and what it tells us about the Oilers BPA

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Old
07-20-2004, 11:59 AM
  #26
oilswell
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Excellent post YKOil. It nicely complements the last thread on this comparison. The point about being in different parts of the drafting cycle is critical, although generally both teams still want to maximize the amount of good players they get whether they use them or trade them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
So Ottawa has been drafting, on average, 6 spots behind Edmonton for the last 8 years. On that record alone we should be doing a better job of it.
Possibly. But amounts and locations of all drafts and the years they occur in is important.

The main problem of your otherwise nice comparison is that you do not list the picks the teams have wasted. The secondary problem (to my mind anyway) is that picking top 2 is not like picking top 10 is not like picking 2nd round is not like picking after 180. What I'm saying is that asking "which did better" is too coarse a question, and rather one should be asking (say) "which did better in the late rounds?, Which did better in the 30-60 area? ... etc.".

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Old
07-20-2004, 12:42 PM
  #27
YKOil
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All true oilswell. I know that I have a 24 year review of the Oilers drafting history done... maybe it is time to go insane and do that work for the Senators and Devils as well. Be easier for the Sens of course - fewer years.


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Old
07-20-2004, 01:39 PM
  #28
oilswell
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
A\I have a 24 year review of the Oilers drafting history done
Yes, its impressive and a very useful online resource. I'm not really enamoured with your rating system, but I don't have a better one.

In the end I suspect the effort to go through the other draft records in the same way may noth be worth it. I am toying with what to do about such analysis myself for the future when I have some spare time . But this is a question that won't be nailed down very well since situations are tough to compare and we won't know how much luck is really involved. I suppose the luck question can be narrowed down somewhat by an odds analysis but the whole analysis can be submarined by luck and arguments that to the team some skill guy isn't really worth as much as some physical brute, etc.

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07-20-2004, 10:46 PM
  #29
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I think that right now, the point is somewhat moot.

What are Oilers fans constantly screaming for? Skill guys.
What do Ottawa seemingly have in abundance? Yep.

What are Senators fans constantly screaming for? Guys who play big.
What do Edmonton seemingly have in abundance? Check.

Ottawa has more than decent showings in the regular season, but just can't seem to get it done in the playoffs.

Edmonton has... average showings in the regular season, but do almost as well in the playoffs.

I'm not sure how either drafting system is much better. Most here argue that you can easily trade for guys who play big and don't hurt you defensively, but I think Ottawa's made it pretty clear that's not so.

I say the mix idea is best, but then the risk is too much dilution - you play it safe and so wind up getting stranded on second base cos the next guy singled and the two after him struck out.

I'm glad I'm not an NHL scout.

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07-20-2004, 11:44 PM
  #30
The Rage
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kraigus
I think that right now, the point is somewhat moot.

What are Oilers fans constantly screaming for? Skill guys.
What do Ottawa seemingly have in abundance? Yep.

What are Senators fans constantly screaming for? Guys who play big.
What do Edmonton seemingly have in abundance? Check.

Ottawa has more than decent showings in the regular season, but just can't seem to get it done in the playoffs.

Edmonton has... average showings in the regular season, but do almost as well in the playoffs.

I'm not sure how either drafting system is much better. Most here argue that you can easily trade for guys who play big and don't hurt you defensively, but I think Ottawa's made it pretty clear that's not so.

I say the mix idea is best, but then the risk is too much dilution - you play it safe and so wind up getting stranded on second base cos the next guy singled and the two after him struck out.

I'm glad I'm not an NHL scout.
Yeah, a mix is ideal, and I'm not sure if the Oilers haven't been doing that. They take big bodies in the middle of the draft, but also draft skill at the begining and the later stages (just like Lowetide says). I think this strategy could really pay off.

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