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Next Season's Roster (All Trade, UFA Signing and Re-Signing Discussion) Part II

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06-09-2011, 01:54 PM
  #1
Led Zappa
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Next Season's Roster (All Trade, UFA Signing and Re-Signing Discussion) Part II

No Reason to Wait.

Big questions:
1. Can we deal Heatley?
2. Should we re-sign White?
3. How do we add more speed into the top 9 fwd set?
4. What should our top 4 dman be after Boyle, Demers, Vlasic. We need a Coburn, Burns, JBo?? We won't get Staal or Weber.

Edit: 2011-12 RFA draft pick compensation
(offer sheet value (annual cap hit): compensation (2012 draft))

Less than $1,034,249: No compensation
More than $1,034,249 -- $1,567,043: Third-round pick
More than $1,567,043 -- $3,134,088: Second-round pick
More than $3,134,088 -- $4,701,131: First and third-round pick
More than $4,701,131 -- $6,268,175: First, second and third-round pick
More than $6,268,175 -- $7,835,219: Two first-round picks, a second and third
More than $7,835,219 and higher: Four first-round picks

Part I - http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=917381

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Old
06-09-2011, 01:59 PM
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I want Drury.

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06-09-2011, 02:15 PM
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how much money do you think Vlasic could/should get as a UFA?

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06-09-2011, 02:36 PM
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how much money do you think Vlasic could/should get as a UFA?
If they go by comps, which they generally do, to his current level, the best he could expect would be in the $3mil range. $4.5mil is the top of the range for a defensive dman with little offense. Guys like Regehr, Foote (at the time of his CBJ signing, etc.). Here are some guys that have been in and around Vlasic comps at the time of signing: Poti, Zanon, Willie Mitchell (a little on the high side in terms of comps).

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06-09-2011, 02:46 PM
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Big questions:
1. Can we deal Heatley?

Nope.

2. Should we re-sign White?
Perhaps the single biggest question of the offseason. He was real solid in the playoffs, wants to be a shark, is good both ways and helps the powerplay. However, his size and less-than-ideal defensive play leave a lot to be desired for the current make up of the team. He dramatically improved the play of our team, simply because he gave us three pairings with offensive ability. Also, he was our #3 PP guy on the point, and the #2 d-man in that situation. At the same time his pking isn't nearly what we need, and for 25-33% of the price, we could have Justin Braun, and I am not sure that we can use Boyle, Braun, Vlasic, White, and Demers at the same time. That's not to say Braun is as good or better, but if the question is Braun+Leino or White+Mitchell, I may lean toward the former.

3. How do we add more speed into the top 9 fwd set?
Our slow forwards (Clowe, Couture, Pavelski, Heatley, and to a lesser degree Jumbo) either aren't likely to be traded (the rest), or absolutely should not be. Setoguchi and Mitchell are 7th and 9th least necessary (I've got Wellwood 8th), yet two of the three fastest. Despite his 7th position I think Setoguchi must stay, but we could look to upgrade on Mitchell, via Eric Cole (40-60 points consistently, blazing speed, excellent forchecker, somewhat gritty) or Ville Leino (in this case, Wellwood, rather than Mitchell, would likely be the odd man out).

I think that we can actually get a little slower, but the team absolutely needs to bring in some effective speed (i.e. more Erik Cole, less Torrey Mitchell). Barring a miracle of Heatley being dumped (still think he is a good player, but a poor fit), I just don't see how our speed can change much without making a major mistake in a trade.

4. What should our top 4 dman be after Boyle, Demers, Vlasic. We need a Coburn, Burns, JBo?? We won't get Staal or Weber.
I highly doubt Coburn is available, and while I am a huge fan of Brent Burns and Ryan Suter, I don't know if there is a way we can acquire them in an intelligent move. Should they be on the table, the sharks would likely have better assets than just about anyone, but do you want to move Couture, or Pavelski+ for a guy who could walk 10 months later. Staal, Girardi, and Coburn would be great fits, but I imagine all are unavailable.

I'd rather have Jbou than Heatley, but I doubt all parties would agree, so it likely breaks down somewhere. As noted above, having White and Murray to platoon as your #4 and #5 is pretty damn good, but it brings with it other issues (mainly stemming from three smaller/non-physical who are, on the whole average defensively, in front of them). I think at 4.25 million Eric Brewer would be a nice fit over White, but than we are short a puck mover (maybe utilize Vlasic to acquire one- but that leads to a lot of turnover). Granted Brewer is quite a bit better than Vlasic offensively, and his heavy shot (though it doesn't find twine nearly enough) would be welcome on the backend.

The way I see it, the team (provided it can move Niittymaki) has three choices:
1) 2 top 4 d-men (including White)
2) 1 top 4 d-man and 1 top 6 forward
3) 1 top 4 d-man or 1 top 6 forward, and a upgrade bottom 6 (I.e pursue as many as three quality bottom sixers like Reasoner, Dvorak, Larose, Dupuis, Talbot, Asham, Higgins, trading for Lapierre; maintaining Eager would fall into the lower levels of this category, but could still be a good signing).

FWIW, I also believe we will, or at least should sign Wellwood (unless we sign Leino). Aside from the Vancouver series, I thought he was great.

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06-09-2011, 02:46 PM
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Another big topic that we should be discussing is what to do with our 4th line. Going into the playoffs I thought DW had put together a nice 4th line for the playoffs with Eager - Nichol - Mayers. They have grit, speed, and experience. But they were horrible. Do any of these guys get offered a contract?? What should the 4th line look like? Cheap UFAs or give some of the kids a chance?

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06-09-2011, 02:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
If they go by comps, which they generally do, to his current level, the best he could expect would be in the $3mil range. $4.5mil is the top of the range for a defensive dman with little offense. Guys like Regehr, Foote (at the time of his CBJ signing, etc.). Here are some guys that have been in and around Vlasic comps at the time of signing: Poti, Zanon, Willie Mitchell (a little on the high side in terms of comps).
thanks. 3-4 is what i was thinking.

so you don't think his age or potential will have anything to do with his new contract?

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06-09-2011, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
Another big topic that we should be discussing is what to do with our 4th line. Going into the playoffs I thought DW had put together a nice 4th line for the playoffs with Eager - Nichol - Mayers. They have grit, speed, and experience. But they were horrible. Do any of these guys get offered a contract?? What should the 4th line look like? Cheap UFAs or give some of the kids a chance?
Drury if he will come on the cheap.

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06-09-2011, 02:56 PM
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thanks. 3-4 is what i was thinking.

so you don't think his age or potential will have anything to do with his new contract?
I think the Sharks overhype him internally. He would likely get towards $4mil with the Sharks. I doubt he would see that level as a UFA where he is more under the microscope without tinted lenses. $4.5 is a shutdown dman who can anchor a pairing or a guy who has a good two-way game (Hamhuis, Michalek). Secondary dmen always fall under $4mil and usually below $3mil.

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06-09-2011, 02:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CupfortheSharks View Post
Another big topic that we should be discussing is what to do with our 4th line. Going into the playoffs I thought DW had put together a nice 4th line for the playoffs with Eager - Nichol - Mayers. They have grit, speed, and experience. But they were horrible. Do any of these guys get offered a contract?? What should the 4th line look like? Cheap UFAs or give some of the kids a chance?
Nichol was injured late in the season and then got a bad gash from a skate. I wouldn't judge anything about him based on the end of the season. If he's got another year in him physically I sign him.

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06-09-2011, 03:01 PM
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Nichol was injured late in the season and then got a bad gash from a skate. I wouldn't judge anything about him based on the end of the season. If he's got another year in him physically I sign him.
They have McCarthy and Desjardins for Nichol's spot. Neither have his faceoff or PK. Desjardins has the edge on forecheck.

Their biggest shortcoming is speed on the wings for forecheck. They need a bit more IQ regarding forecheck than is brought by McGinn. A guy who can bump up a line or two in a pinch as the forecheckers are the ones whose performance falls most easily due to bumps and bruises.

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06-09-2011, 03:01 PM
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i would let Nichol go. he was bad all season IMO. he's not the same player, and i dont think that it was just the injuries.

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06-09-2011, 03:10 PM
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If anyone had interest in him.

@Real_ESPNLeBrun Pierre LeBrun


Kostitsyn deal in Montreal is worth $3.25 M for 1 year

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06-09-2011, 03:14 PM
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If anyone had interest in him.

@Real_ESPNLeBrun Pierre LeBrun


Kostitsyn deal in Montreal is worth $3.25 M for 1 year
He's a Seto comp.

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06-09-2011, 03:24 PM
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He's a Seto comp.
Darn...

Odd, he didn't get a raise at all. He just came off a 3 yr/$3.25m per deal.

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06-09-2011, 03:33 PM
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Darn...

Odd, he didn't get a raise at all. He just came off a 3 yr/$3.25m per deal.
They had to give him a qualifying offer of 1 year 3.25 million or he would have become an UFA. It's possible they think he is worth 2.5-2.8 million, but they knew as a UFA he'd get 3.25-3.75 million. The Habs hope he can earn the contract and more, Andrei's camp hopes he can get himself a long term deal of 3.25-4. I do think he is similar to Setoguchi, but the Hab's hands were tied here.

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06-09-2011, 03:34 PM
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He's a Seto comp.
Based on his team stats I don't see his JT. Seems like he works harder for his points. I still don't see Seto getting over 3, probably closer to 2.5, though I'm no expert. We need a poll. To bad we lost that Hye Guy.

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06-09-2011, 03:39 PM
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Based on his team stats I don't see his JT. Seems like he works harder for his points. I still don't see Seto getting over 3, probably closer to 2.5, though I'm no expert. We need a poll. To bad we lost that Hye Guy.
Hard work and AK are not synonymous.

He's older than Seto. He has a higher ranking within his team. He does have a JT, Plekanec (not as good as JT). AK also has issues that are similar to Seto's. Seto is a better fit for the Sharks than AK in that Seto is heavy forecheck, AK not so much. AK has a bit more puck control (Leino type) on his own.

He is close enough to Seto that he is comparable, but he is a high comp.

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06-09-2011, 03:50 PM
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Gotta hope something becomes available for DW on the trade market. The chances of a UFA signing here and solving our most pressing issue is slim at best. And with the notable exception of Heatley, we generally don't know it until it happens.

Obviously a two-way #2 on the left side is the ideal acquisition to make. I am also open to moving Vlasic in order to make room for that player. As much as I like Vlasic and know that he's young and showed some good signs as the year progressed, he's not where he needs to be for the team to take that next step. He may be the best defensive defenseman on the team but he's not succeeding against top competition and he's not first pairing on the PK either. And even in the secondary situations, he's not performing all that well. His play overall is replaceable and that is especially if a d-man that will improve the goal differential in all situations is on his way in.

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06-09-2011, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SJeasy View Post
Hard work and AK are not synonymous.

He's older than Seto. He has a higher ranking within his team. He does have a JT, Plekanec (not as good as JT). AK also has issues that are similar to Seto's. Seto is a better fit for the Sharks than AK in that Seto is heavy forecheck, AK not so much. AK has a bit more puck control (Leino type) on his own.

He is close enough to Seto that he is comparable, but he is a high comp.
GI notes that AK had a 3yr/3.25m contract. That would make him 1 year younger than Seto is this year when signed. Why the HUGE disparity if he's a comp.

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06-09-2011, 03:51 PM
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Also, here is the line-up I'd go with (assuming it were possible)

Cap: 63.5 (perhaps overzealous, but I am reasonable everywhere else)

Trades:
Niittymaki to Toronto/Columbus/Colorado/Edmonton/Phoenix/Florida/TBL for a 6th.
Mitchell for a 4th/prospect.

Signings:
Devin Setoguchi- 2 years 2.75 million
Ian White- 3 years 3.35 million per
Erik Cole- 3 years 3.35 million per (if he'll take two even better)
Kyle Wellwood- 1 year 850k
Jamal Mayers- 1 year 650k
Andrew Desjardin- 1 year 550k QO.
Jamie McGinn- 1 year 650k (less than QO, but one-way)
Scott Nichol- 1 year 700k (someone else is fine here as well)
Ruslan Salei- 1 year 700k (essentially a veteran stay at home #6 d-man, doesn't have to be Salei. Just give some insulation should Petrecki,
Doherty, Irwin, Moore and Braun be overmatched on defense, should an injury occur).
Greiss or equivalent- 1 year 650k
Benn Ferrerio- 1 year at QO 720k?
John McCarty- 1 year at 605k QO
Stalock- 2 years 800k.
McLaren, Eager, walk.

NHL roster
Marleau (6.9)- Thornton (7)- Cole (3.35)
Clowe (3.625)- Couture (1.242)- Heatley (7.5)
Wellwood (.85)- Pavelski (4)- Setoguchi (2.75)
McGinn (.65)- Nichol (.7)- Mayers (.7)
Desjardin (.55)

Murray (2.5)- Boyle (6.67)
Vlasic (3.1)- Demers (1.25)
Salei (.7)- White (3.35)
Moore (.5125)

Niemi (3.8)
Greiss (.65)

Total: 62.3 million (1.2 million cap space)

AHL roster
Treveleyan- Swift- Ferrerio
Mashinter-McCarty-DaSilva
Connolly-Viedensky-Livingston
Reid-Wingels-Macintyre
Lucia

Ferrerio, Mashinter, Viedensky should be used for an opening in the top 9. McCarty and Wingels for an opening on the fourth line.

Petrecki-Braun
Doherty-Irwin
Alacost-Schaus

Braun will be expected to play 25 minutes per night and dominate. Any injury, fatigue to White, Demers, Boyle, and possible Vlasic will result in his call-up. Should count on giving him 40 games over the course of the year regardless of injuries.

Sateri
Hutton
Stalock (injury/rest)
Sexsmith

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06-09-2011, 04:01 PM
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Pull Craig Adams of the wish list (exceptional penalty killer and solid 4th liner). Re-upped with Pitt 2 years 675k.

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06-09-2011, 04:05 PM
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GI notes that AK had a 3yr/3.25m contract. That would make him 1 year younger than Seto is this year when signed. Why the HUGE disparity if he's a comp.
They paid for potential and ranking within the team. Note that I also said that he has a higher ranking within his team than Seto. Sort of like Stafford. The raw goal and assist count is not as meaningful as whether he is first, second or third in goals on his own team. Seto is way down the list on the Sharks. In some senses Raymond is a better comp, more TOI, less points. More similar ranking. What I am saying is that AK is within the range of comps that Seto, DW and Seto's agent will use.

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06-09-2011, 04:13 PM
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Blow up the team and sign no namers for cheap. Worked for Chicago right?

HEH.

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06-09-2011, 04:22 PM
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Quote:
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i would let Nichol go. he was bad all season IMO. he's not the same player, and i dont think that it was just the injuries.
He was good enough Todd still used him for critical defensive zone faceoffs, even after his injuries. I think if he can do that he's worth the 600k or however much it costs to keep him.

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