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What is our first overall pick worth ?

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Old
06-10-2011, 09:00 AM
  #51
I am the Liquor
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bangers View Post
Agreed.

As an addendum, here is a list of how they compare with the 5th overall picks over that same time frame:

Kovalchuk >>>>>>>> Stanislav Chistov
Nash > Ryan Whitney
Fleury ~ Vanek
Ovechkin >>>>>>>>> Wheeler
Crosby >>>> Price
Johnson < Kessel
Kane >>> Alzner
Stamkos > Luke Schenn
Tavares > Brayden Schenn
Hall > Nino Neiderreiter

That's funny - only Kessel was a better pick, Vanek was about even with Fleury, and in every other instance, the 1st overall blew the 5th overall pick away.
Good point. Ive seen a comparison done from first to sixth as well. The disparity was rather striking. There is a rather large drop off. First overall, while not 100%, is the closest thing to it when it comes to the draft.

Added to that technology today, internet, satellite, the money at stake, the tools available to the scouting staff/management, psychologists at the combine, etc... it is very, very difficult to pick a bust first overall these days.

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Old
06-10-2011, 09:07 AM
  #52
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Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
You couldn't make trades in NHL 94.
Post of the year. Seriously hilarious way to start the day. Kudos, sir.

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Old
06-10-2011, 09:34 AM
  #53
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What fans of other teams who are reading this board really need to understand is that we don't care about what deal is fair to them. If the Oilers trade their first overall pick, it is going to be for a package that will make fans of the other team want to give up on hockey.

Don't tell us "pshh, that's way too much" because getting way too much is the only reason Tambi would deal the pick. And frankly, what most think is way too much probably still isn't enough make it happen.

We're not trying to devalue your players/prospects, we know what their potential is, and what they're worth to you, but you have to understand what this pick is worth to us. It's probably worth more to us than it is to other teams because RNH just seems like the perfect center for this rebuild.

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Old
06-10-2011, 10:18 AM
  #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
How many times has the first overall pick ever been traded? In the last twenty years even?
I can think of 4 times in the last 13 years off-hand.

It doesn't happen that often but it's definitely not unprecedented.

1998, SJ-> Tampa
1999, Tampa-> Vancouver-> Atlanta
2002, Florida-> Columbus
2003, Florida-> Pittsburgh

In each of those, the team with 1st overall never fell out of the top 5.

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06-10-2011, 10:59 AM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alanschu View Post
You couldn't make trades in NHL 94.
I was thinking that too. Still the game against which all others should be judged.


Last edited by madmutter: 06-10-2011 at 11:09 AM.
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Old
06-10-2011, 11:07 AM
  #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle View Post
I can think of 4 times in the last 13 years off-hand.

It doesn't happen that often but it's definitely not unprecedented.

1998, SJ-> Tampa
1999, Tampa-> Vancouver-> Atlanta
2002, Florida-> Columbus
2003, Florida-> Pittsburgh

In each of those, the team with 1st overall never fell out of the top 5.
4/13=30%, that actually is quite common. It is often said at the draft that a pick is worth more before it's made than it will likely ever be after and the #1 should be no different. If the other team is not getting absolutely fleeced then Tambo is screwing it up. Of course he should entertain offers but the if the deal isn't amazing he should stand pat.

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Old
06-10-2011, 11:51 AM
  #57
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Originally Posted by agentblack View Post
Shaking head...yep THIS years No.1 OV pick aint gonna get you the haul you guys are expecting. Vanek,Carter, Stastny and a top ten pick? really? Talk about risky management. Maybe if Crosby/Nash/Ovi were being drafted.
And your right about changing a team's destiny. I'd imagine any team doing what you guys propose would find themselves way worse off than before. This isnt NHL94 teams make trades to improve their situation not because oh goody we get to pick first yippie. It may have cost us this good prospect and this other good player and our own top ten pick who probably will be as good as the no.1 guy anyway, but forget all that we get to pick 1st
weeeeeeee
And RNH wasnt and most scouts still dont think is the clear cut no.1 At one point it was SC, or Larsson, or Lando. CSS finally decided in march it was RNH. Hell most scouts think Huberdeau is as good as he is. So based on that why would a team trade away their own 1st and a top player to draft a guy they probably couldve had anyway

Show us proof of ONE scout that does not have him at no.1.
Show us proof of ONE scout that thinks Huberdeau is as good as him.

You said most scouts think the above, show us. If you cannot you are a troll.

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Old
06-10-2011, 11:53 AM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
Here is a list of first overall picks from the last ten years.

Ilya Kovalchuk - Spezza, Svitov, Weiss, Chistov, Komisarek
Rick Nash - Lehtonen, Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney
Marc Andre Fleury - Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek, Suter
Alex Ovechkin - Malkin, Barker, Ladd, Wheeler
Sidney Crosby - Ryan, Johnson, Pouliot, Price
Erik Johnson - Staal, Toews, Backstrom, Kessel
Patrick Kane - JVR, Turris, Hickey, Alzner
Steven Stamkos - Doughty, Bogosian, Pietrangelo, Schenn
John Tavares - Hedman, Duchene, Kane, Schenn
Taylor Hall - Seguin, Gudbranson, Johansen, Niederreiter

Now why dont you tell us all who "hasnt done jack" in the nhl so we could all have a good laugh.
I want to draw more attention to this post, I've added the next 4 players picked and if no D man was in there I added the highest drafted Dman. I bolded the cases where one could make an argument that one or more of the players drafted after the #1 over all is better and makes more of an impact in the NHL. The only clear cut time in the last 10 years that the #1 overall was not better than every player in the following 4 picks was when a defender was taken first overall, the only other debatable year was when a team picked a goalie #1. See a trend? I'd argue the Doughty year could be brought into question but who would you rather have on your team, Stamkos or Doughty?

In my opinion, even if the defender has a higher ceiling, the chances of pick the forward increase your chances of having an impact NHLer as the defenders are harder to predict. At #2 I would take Larsson I think. Landeskog is great but his average points would lead me to believe his top end potential is that of a second line, impact scorer. A ideal line mate for Gagner but I'd take the chance on Larsson I think.

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Old
06-10-2011, 11:59 AM
  #59
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseppi View Post
The moon.

The pick is worth the moon, and no team will be willing to give that up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by oilWILDcountry View Post
No no, it's worth more than that.

It's value is closer to an elephant.

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Old
06-10-2011, 12:16 PM
  #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kyle View Post
I can think of 4 times in the last 13 years off-hand.

It doesn't happen that often but it's definitely not unprecedented.

1998, SJ-> Tampa
1999, Tampa-> Vancouver-> Atlanta
2002, Florida-> Columbus
2003, Florida-> Pittsburgh

In each of those, the team with 1st overall never fell out of the top 5.
Nice post. To those that think trading the 1st is a good idea because you can get some extra assets because you just don't know how these palyers will turn out. I ask you this, how much better would Florida be if they had:

Rick Nash over Jay Bouwmeester? All they got was an option to flip spots in 2003. Subsequently they got the 1st again, so basically they got nothing for trading down to 3.

MAF over Nathan Horton? The only compensation they received for trading down was they got Pitts 2nd rounder and Pitts got Floridas 3rd rounder

I'm pretty sure people would have committed suicide if Tambo made/makes any of those trades with the 1st overall.

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Old
06-10-2011, 12:18 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by bombers15 View Post
Well it didn't say from what perspective. Standing on earth an elephant looks way bigger. I totally understand how she made that mistake.

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Old
06-10-2011, 12:31 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Well it didn't say from what perspective. Standing on earth an elephant looks way bigger. I totally understand how she made that mistake.
That poor girl, that moment is immortalized for all of history. I have always felt sorry for her.

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Old
06-10-2011, 12:33 PM
  #63
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Originally Posted by Seachd View Post
It's not an A+B=C situation. If the Oilers like Nugent-Hopkins I'll bet you anything Rundblad and the 6th wouldn't be near enough.

The pick's perceived worth, and the actual offer needed to move the pick (its actual worth) are likely two very different things.

If the Oilers want who they think is the very best player from this draft, why would they give it up for "a nice haul"?
I like Runblad and the 6th pick may turn out to be something, but if Tambo is even thinking of that deal he needs to be fired before he does it.

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06-10-2011, 12:45 PM
  #64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Nice post. To those that think trading the 1st is a good idea because you can get some extra assets because you just don't know how these palyers will turn out. I ask you this, how much better would Florida be if they had:

Rick Nash over Jay Bouwmeester? All they got was an option to flip spots in 2003. Subsequently they got the 1st again, so basically they got nothing for trading down to 3.

MAF over Nathan Horton? The only compensation they received for trading down was they got Pitts 2nd rounder and Pitts got Floridas 3rd rounder

I'm pretty sure people would have committed suicide if Tambo made/makes any of those trades with the 1st overall.
I dont think anyone is saying that trading down is always a good idea. It depends on the deal that you can get. Those deals you listed were not good deals. Thing is the Panthers wanted Bouwmeester so they would have taken him with the #1 pick and not got Nash even if they hadnt traded down.

The Horton pick doesnt look great but neither does MAF if you consider the players that went later. That second round pick wasnt enough to do the deal but if they'd got the earlier 2nd they still could have got some decent players, like Shea Weber for one.

It's obvious that dropping from #1 even just to 2 or 3 is worth more than a second round pick. If you can get two firsts or the first and a good prospect it might be worth considering but it all depends on the players available. If it's a toss up for us between Hopkins and Larsson and nobody else is even close then it's worth seeing if Colorado will give up anything to swap up and have their pick. With the # of holes on this team if you can get something that could help out you've got to consider it. I'd be really tempted by something like the #1 and #19 for #2 and #11 from Colorado but I dont think the Av's go for that and I'm not sure our scouts would agree either.

I'd say it's really doubtful you get a deal though. Too hard to balance out what each team considers equal value. It's a good idea to talk though, see what other possibilities are out there what pieces are in play.

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Old
06-10-2011, 12:49 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by I am the Liquor View Post
How many times has the first overall pick ever been traded? In the last twenty years even?
My thoughts exactly. The fact that its hard place supposedly to get high end talent to come to. We would be taking a huge chance on another player that might not want to come here in the first place. Its just easier to go with experts. And they pretty much unanimously agree RNH is IT!! Don't drink the kool aid Tambo.

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Old
06-10-2011, 01:04 PM
  #66
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Our 1st pick, Gilbert and Hemsky for Weber. Sign weber to 7 yr 7 mill per.

Sign Talbot, R. Niedermeyer and Selanne.

So essentially, we pull another trick like 2005 where we got Peca and Pronger. Everyone thought Peca was washed up back then and York was better.

Niedermeyer can be our 3rd line checker. Talbot to play with Hall and Horcoff.

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Old
06-10-2011, 01:23 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by OilerBoy888 View Post
Our 1st pick, Gilbert and Hemsky for Weber. Sign weber to 7 yr 7 mill per.

Sign Talbot, R. Niedermeyer and Selanne.

So essentially, we pull another trick like 2005 where we got Peca and Pronger. Everyone thought Peca was washed up back then and York was better.

Niedermeyer can be our 3rd line checker. Talbot to play with Hall and Horcoff.
Delete your account.

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Old
06-10-2011, 01:40 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Oilersfan2354 View Post
A #1C and a pick in the top 10 or a #1D and a pick in the top 5. Otherwise I want RNH.

So
Stastny + 11
Or Rundblad + 6 would probably get it done
If Tambo accepted a deal like that, he's be run right out of town.

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Old
06-10-2011, 01:52 PM
  #69
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Delete your account.
Only if you delete yours first.

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06-10-2011, 01:59 PM
  #70
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Delete your account.
This post made me spit juice all over my keyboard.

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06-10-2011, 02:11 PM
  #71
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Reimer View Post
Nice post. To those that think trading the 1st is a good idea because you can get some extra assets because you just don't know how these palyers will turn out. I ask you this, how much better would Florida be if they had:

Rick Nash over Jay Bouwmeester? All they got was an option to flip spots in 2003. Subsequently they got the 1st again, so basically they got nothing for trading down to 3.

MAF over Nathan Horton? The only compensation they received for trading down was they got Pitts 2nd rounder and Pitts got Floridas 3rd rounder

I'm pretty sure people would have committed suicide if Tambo made/makes any of those trades with the 1st overall.
...And Mikael Samuelsson. Though he didn't amount to too much in Florida. 9pts in 37 games before leaving as a free agent. Ho hum.

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Old
06-10-2011, 02:19 PM
  #72
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what's our 1st overall worth? if you listen to some, three 1st rounders, three 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders!!

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Old
06-10-2011, 02:23 PM
  #73
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Originally Posted by Best Oil Ever View Post
what's our 1st overall worth? if you listen to some, three 1st rounders, three 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders!!
If there was a team that could make this happen do you do it?

That's a lot of prospects in one year. But I think I'd rather strike out on the 1st overall than have 9 NHL plugs. Tough call though.

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Old
06-10-2011, 02:24 PM
  #74
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I still wouldn't do it.
I agree. I'd pass on both of those deals, not good enough IMO.

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Old
06-10-2011, 02:24 PM
  #75
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Originally Posted by Supermassive View Post
That's right - All the tea.
classic

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