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The OFFICIAL 2011 NHL Draft Thread (7PM 6/24 on VS)

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Old
06-15-2011, 12:31 PM
  #176
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Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
Try to focus when you read, it will make following easier. I actually wrote that he was not the same type of player. Where they were alike is that both had a lot of tools to potentially become an impact player, but both were very raw. Again, the similarity was not in the style of play, but in the fact that both were very raw.

And I've written many times that this is one of those things that could allow you to pull an impact player because rather than sacrificing on overall talent, you are sacrificing on the player being very raw, and thus, very high-risk.

Basically, if a player falls to #15, there must be a reason for it because by then, only 10% or so of the players become top-6 forwards. The flaw can be size, the flaw can be injury, the flaw can be being very raw... or the flaw can be limited potential.

But a flawless player will not fall to #15. It just won't happen. Either you are drafting a bottom-6 player with a high probability of making the NHL or you are drafting someone who is very high risk, but has a chance of being top-6. But not both. Not at #15. And especially not in a weak draft.

You can fantasize otherwise, but the facts don't support the idea that you can draft a blue-chipper at #15. Sure some players at #15 will become a star, but again, they were usually high-risk at the time of the draft... and if not, the odds of this happening based on statistics from previous drafts are under 5%. But of course, everyone will focus on those 5% who exceeded all expectations and forget the 95% of all-around players who became Malhotra-style scrubs.

The picks were NOTHING alike.

Kreider was always a hard competitor, strong, fitness addict, smart, and had elite level physical tools.

Kreider has been a dynamic player at every level he's played.

What needed work was his two way game, and he learned it at BC.

All of which Jessiman had none of.

Jessiman could skate "well" for his size, and had decent hands. That was it. He wasn't overly physical either. He was drafted for his size. And he worked hard one summer doing boxing...which helps his game how, i don't know.

The picks were nothing alike.

This Kreider was raw thing is erroneous. Show me a player drafted recently that is 6-3, 220, has elite speed, a high-end shot, grit, compete level, and character.

If raw means he didn't have the opportunity yet to play at a higher level, then, OK. The player was not a risky pick, at all. Players with Kreider's package of physical tools, work ethic, and mental make up/character are not risks.

Him going back to BC for his Junior year doesn't make him a risk, either. He's accelerating his studies, just like he did at Masconomet over a summer so he could go to Andover. He will graduate BC early and sign next summer.

I don't care what the percentages are. And you think drafting a player with a high likelyhood of reaching the Pro level is a poor decision, yet drafting the smallest player in the draft, who would be the smallest in the NHL is a wise decision?

Scheifele, McNeill, Miller, Biggs, Armia... these guys have exponentially higher potential of success then Grimaldi.

No percentage can be posted that will make drafting the smallest guy in the draft at 15 a smart decision. And luckily, Leslie already hinted that he isn't going to be the pick.

I also don't care what the percentages are, the draft is important, and pick #15 is decent enough in the top half of the round.

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06-15-2011, 12:38 PM
  #177
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SNY blog posted a video from the sens of a few of their interviews at the combine...nothing earth shatter but interesting to see the process. some of the questions they asked. and how they invited mark mcneil back for a 2nd interview over breakfast cause they felt his answer were robotic and rehearsed so they wanted to talk to him in a more relax environment (possibly indicating he is a player they are looking at)

http://www.snyrangersblog.com/2011/0...aft-prospects/

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06-15-2011, 12:40 PM
  #178
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Originally Posted by jas View Post
I know...with all the talk that players like Ziba, Oleksiak and Klefbom are rising, the player I keep hoping may fall is Strome...let him get to 10, and make a deal with the Wild.
any pipedream scenario where we can grab 8/9/10 and still hold onto 15? LOL

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06-15-2011, 12:55 PM
  #179
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
any pipedream scenario where we can grab 8/9/10 and still hold onto 15? LOL
We already did...Tim Erixon says "hi". Oh, and good to see they have interest in McNeil...it still remains the same for me - 1) Scheifele, 2) McNeil and 3) Miller...unless they decide to move up.

Oops...I read it wrong...I thought you said the Rangers asked McNeil back, and now, reading it over, it was the Sens.

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06-15-2011, 12:57 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
We already did...Tim Erixon says "hi". Oh, and good to see they have interest in McNeil...it still remains the same for me - 1) Scheifele, 2) McNeil and 3) Miller...unless they decide to move up.

Oops...I read it wrong...I thought you said the Rangers asked McNeil back, and now, reading it over, it was the Sens.
Great minds.

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06-15-2011, 01:00 PM
  #181
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Originally Posted by nyrfan444 View Post
Great minds.
Hey, you rate aces in my book...you were the first Ranger fan to clue me in to Kreider, so your opinion has weight with me.

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06-15-2011, 01:02 PM
  #182
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That's my list, too.

Armia is at the top, but he's unrealistic.

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06-15-2011, 01:14 PM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jas View Post
We already did...Tim Erixon says "hi". Oh, and good to see they have interest in McNeil...it still remains the same for me - 1) Scheifele, 2) McNeil and 3) Miller...unless they decide to move up.

Oops...I read it wrong...I thought you said the Rangers asked McNeil back, and now, reading it over, it was the Sens.
no i want another top 10 pick in addition to erixon and #15...and without giving up anything of real value LOL. where are prucha and malik when you need them?

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06-15-2011, 01:26 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
That's my list, too.

Armia is at the top, but he's unrealistic.
Strome/Armia/Zibanejad rank above for me too but I can't see it happening, unfortunately.

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06-15-2011, 01:26 PM
  #185
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
no i want another top 10 pick in addition to erixon and #15...and without giving up anything of real value LOL. where are prucha and malik when you need them?
Or the rights to Rachunek, Baranka and Immonen. (Wait, we still have the last two, right?)

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Old
06-15-2011, 01:36 PM
  #186
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My top 20:

1-Landeskog
2-Nugent-Hopkins
3-Huberdeau
4-Larsson
5-Strome
6-Hamilton
7-Zibanajed
8-Beaulieu
9-Couturier
10-Armia
11-Namestnikov
12-Siemens
13-Klefbom
14-Murphy
15-Bartschi
16-McNeil
17-Scheifele
18-Khokhlachev
19-Puempel
20-Jensen

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06-15-2011, 01:41 PM
  #187
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Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
My top 20:

1-Landeskog
2-Nugent-Hopkins
3-Huberdeau
4-Larsson
5-Strome
6-Hamilton
7-Zibanajed
8-Beaulieu
9-Couturier
10-Armia
11-Namestnikov
12-Siemens
13-Klefbom
14-Murphy
15-Bartschi
16-McNeil
17-Scheifele
18-Khokhlachev
19-Puempel
20-Jensen
Hey Bluenote can we expect your annual "Draft Preview Extravaganza" this year? I always enjoy it and missed it last year.

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Old
06-15-2011, 01:43 PM
  #188
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My top 20:

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Adam Larsson
3. Jonathan Huberdeau
4. Gabriel Landeskog
5. Dougie Hamilton
6. Ryan Strome
7. Ryan Murphy
8. Mika Zibanejad
9. Sean Couturier
10. Mark Scheifele
11. Oscar Klefbom
12. Sven Bartschi
13. JT Miller
14. Mark McNeil
15. Duncan Siemens
16. Nicklas Jensen
17. Jamie Oleksiak
18. Nathan Beaulieu
19. Joel Armia
20. Vladislav Namestnikov

I know some people will question Armia's spot, but for me a big red flag is always guys who don't bring it every night. Armia unfortunately lacks some of the work ethic I'd want in a top 15 pick, so I bumped him down a fair amount because of it.


Last edited by Trxjw: 06-15-2011 at 01:49 PM. Reason: I'm dumb and mixed up Brodin and Beaulieu
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Old
06-15-2011, 02:01 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pugs35 View Post
Hey Bluenote can we expect your annual "Draft Preview Extravaganza" this year? I always enjoy it and missed it last year.
It'll be an abbreviated version with the 2nd rounders missing, but I'll give my usual top 60, top 5 choices for #15, and some later round Bluenote specials

Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
My top 20:

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Adam Larsson
3. Jonathan Huberdeau
4. Gabriel Landeskog
5. Dougie Hamilton
6. Ryan Strome
7. Ryan Murphy
8. Mika Zibanejad
9. Sean Couturier
10. Mark Scheifele
11. Oscar Klefbom
12. Sven Bartschi
13. JT Miller
14. Mark McNeil
15. Duncan Siemens
16. Nicklas Jensen
17. Jamie Oleksiak
18. Nathan Beaulieu
19. Joel Armia
20. Vladislav Namestnikov

I know some people will question Armia's spot, but for me a big red flag is always guys who don't bring it every night. Armia unfortunately lacks some of the work ethic I'd want in a top 15 pick, so I bumped him down a fair amount because of it.
Good list. I like to see I'm not the only one down on Couterier. Prospects like he and Armia are still young, at that size I maybe put too much expectations on them. Both are a work in progress whereas other talented players are showing more of what they can do.

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06-15-2011, 02:03 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
I know some people will question Armia's spot, but for me a big red flag is always guys who don't bring it every night. Armia unfortunately lacks some of the work ethic I'd want in a top 15 pick, so I bumped him down a fair amount because of it.
I mean yeah he wasn't scoring every night and his defencive game and game without the puck still have flaws, but in most games I thought he was trying, shooting and stuff. Sure he could drop, but I'm not really seeing the big problem with his work ethic like many people are.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
Good list. I like to see I'm not the only one down on Couterier. Prospects like he and Armia are still young, at that size I maybe put too much expectations on them. Both are a work in progress whereas other talented players are showing more of what they can do.
IMO Armia is both, I mean 20 goals in a quality league against men mainly relying on his skill as a 17 yo is showing quite alot, but he still likely has to develop two (one if things go better than expected) years before coming to the NHL.


Last edited by Juzmo: 06-15-2011 at 02:12 PM.
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06-15-2011, 02:15 PM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
My top 20:

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2. Adam Larsson
3. Jonathan Huberdeau
4. Gabriel Landeskog
5. Dougie Hamilton
6. Ryan Strome
7. Ryan Murphy
8. Mika Zibanejad
9. Sean Couturier
10. Mark Scheifele
11. Oscar Klefbom
12. Sven Bartschi
13. JT Miller
14. Mark McNeil
15. Duncan Siemens
16. Nicklas Jensen
17. Jamie Oleksiak
18. Nathan Beaulieu
19. Joel Armia
20. Vladislav Namestnikov

I know some people will question Armia's spot, but for me a big red flag is always guys who don't bring it every night. Armia unfortunately lacks some of the work ethic I'd want in a top 15 pick, so I bumped him down a fair amount because of it.
Man, if Courterier dropped that far, I'm putting together a nice package to grab him

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06-15-2011, 02:38 PM
  #192
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Man, if Courterier dropped that far, I'm putting together a nice package to grab him
I don't think he has the upside some folks seem to attribute to him. I think he'll make a very good #2 two-way center that can contribute 50-60 points, but I don't think he'll go beyond that.

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06-15-2011, 02:41 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Bluenote13 View Post
Good list. I like to see I'm not the only one down on Couterier. Prospects like he and Armia are still young, at that size I maybe put too much expectations on them. Both are a work in progress whereas other talented players are showing more of what they can do.
Thanks. Nice job on yours as well.

I wouldn't say I was "down" on Couturier, just that I think he's been overrated from the get go. Hell, even I bought into the hype for a while last year. Seems like people saw Vinny Lecavalier, but IMO he's more David Legwand. Not that that's a bad thing, just not really a home run pick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Juzmo View Post
I mean yeah he wasn't scoring every night and his defencive game and game without the puck still have flaws, but in most games I thought he was trying, shooting and stuff. Sure he could drop, but I'm not really seeing the big problem with his work ethic like many people are.
To be fair, I haven't seen nearly as much of him as I would like. Still, from what I have seen is that he looks a little disinterested when the puck isn't on his stick. However, when he is, I think he's one of the most talented players in the draft. If he showed more determination in retrieving the puck and less waiting around for it to come to him, I'd have no problem taking him in the top-10.

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06-15-2011, 02:43 PM
  #194
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I don't think he has the upside some folks seem to attribute to him. I think he'll make a very good #2 two-way center that can contribute 50-60 points, but I don't think he'll go beyond that.
what about the forwards you put ahead of him? do you see mika and strome as slightly better 60pt guys, or as point/game players?

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06-15-2011, 02:45 PM
  #195
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The only time I've seen Couturier play was at the WJC, but I wasn't that impressed either.

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06-15-2011, 02:54 PM
  #196
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Originally Posted by CM PUNK View Post
what about the forwards you put ahead of him? do you see mika and strome as slightly better 60pt guys, or as point/game players?
Zibanejad is a total package. The issue is he hasn't proven that he can be a top-end point producer. However, I think the skill level is there and he's going to break through. The rest of his game is money. He's defensively responsible, stellar in the face-off dot, and plays with a ton of edge in his game. He has the potential to be a 70+ point guy who really does everything you could ask of a first line center. If he doesn't pan out, at worst he's a very good 2nd line center, IMO.

Strome is so dynamic, but he's also pretty weak and I don't think his frame projects all that well for growth. Still, there's no denying that he has some of the best skill in the draft when it comes to offense. If all goes well, I see him being pretty close to David Krejci. However, if he doesn't translate his game to the big stage, he's probably a future AHLer.

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06-15-2011, 02:56 PM
  #197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trxjw View Post
To be fair, I haven't seen nearly as much of him as I would like. Still, from what I have seen is that he looks a little disinterested when the puck isn't on his stick. However, when he is, I think he's one of the most talented players in the draft. If he showed more determination in retrieving the puck and less waiting around for it to come to him, I'd have no problem taking him in the top-10.
I would guess that would mean some U20 and maybe U18 games?

And if Winnipeg would get Murphy instead of Couturier I would be one sad panda.

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06-15-2011, 02:59 PM
  #198
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Would Mike Richards be a good comparison for Zibenjad?

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06-15-2011, 03:13 PM
  #199
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[QUOTE=SupersonicMonkey;33648823]The picks were NOTHING alike.

Kreider was always a hard competitor, strong, fitness addict, smart, and had elite level physical tools.

Kreider has been a dynamic player at every level he's played.

What needed work was his two way game, and he learned it at BC.

All of which Jessiman had none of.

Jessiman could skate "well" for his size, and had decent hands. That was it. He wasn't overly physical either. He was drafted for his size. And he worked hard one summer doing boxing...which helps his game how, i don't know.

The picks were nothing alike.

This Kreider was raw thing is erroneous. Show me a player drafted recently that is 6-3, 220, has elite speed, a high-end shot, grit, compete level, and character.

If raw means he didn't have the opportunity yet to play at a higher level, then, OK. The player was not a risky pick, at all. Players with Kreider's package of physical tools, work ethic, and mental make up/character are not risks.


No percentage can be posted that will make drafting the smallest guy in the draft at 15 a smart decision. And luckily, Leslie already hinted that he isn't going to be the pick.

QUOTE]

Fist, the "connection" between Kreider and Jessiman was that in both cases it was difficult to evaluate their talent level because of the inferior competition they had faced before their drafts.

Second, while I agree with Esq that players selected in teens range have (more) flaws compared to high draft picks, his conclusion that it would make sense to draft 5'6'' highly skilled prospect is flawed as well (no pun intended).
Not all flaws (or reasons for prospect to drop) are created equal. Kreider is the PERFECT example - everyone agreed that on surface his skills and size seemed to make him a no miss blue chip. However, because of the inferior competition a lot of scouts had doubts that his attributes might simply be an "illusion". As a very extreme analogy, most of us here would've looked like world beaters against 5-year-olds but unfortunately it doesn't translate into NHL level talent. Similarly but differently "flawed" were Cherepanov, Anisimov and Grachev - they would've been drafted higher if they didn't carry Russian passports.

So, if you are looking for prospects that are boom or bust - look for uncertainties due to lack of information, prospects' age or other type of "flaws" that could be corrected. 5'6' I'm afraid is not one of these.

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06-15-2011, 03:14 PM
  #200
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Would Mike Richards be a good comparison for Zibenjad?
Reminds me of Jordan Staal/Ryan Kesler.

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