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Phoenix, worst case scenario

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Old
06-21-2011, 11:01 AM
  #26
SoCalShark
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Originally Posted by LadyStanley View Post
Well, that's some of the highlights of issues of having a team in Vegas. YMMV.
LS, I think you summed up the issues with Las Vegas very well. The economy is in the tank there and I know because I was looking to relocate. There are no tangible jobs for my industry at the level of income required to be a STH.

The NHL might have to go the Expos route and move the franchise to a market with fan interest and an NHL quality arena. The bar has been lowered a bit now that MTS in Winnipeg is considered a suitable site.

Every market mentioned earlier has its issues!

Quebec - Fan interest, potential owner but no current or approved arena
Kansas City - Arena w/ possible ownership but luke warm fan interest (is that why the Pens are playing a pre-season game there to gage fan support)
Portland - Arena but no interested ownership and unproven fan support (WHL team but not an AHL/ECHL team)
Houston - Arena w/ an owner that showed an interest a while ago and some fan support (Aeros of the AHL) but with a non-traditional NHL sports saturated market (a la Atlanta).
Hamilton - Arena (needs upgrades) with fan support (Ballsile ticket drive) and a possible owner (rumors of interested parties) but the fees associated encroachment of Toronto / Buffalo markets would be costly.
Seattle - No Arena, possible ownership group and unproven fan support (see Portland).

Las Vegas is not a long term realistic option. The Pacific Northwest could work but the rumored Seattle ownership group would have to use Portland's arena to really get the franchise going. So the NHL would have to pick its poison and the Pens playing in KC might be an indicator the way the NHL is thinking.


Winnipeg was the perfect storm of ownership, fans and arena at the right time.


Last edited by SoCalShark: 06-21-2011 at 11:08 AM. Reason: Added link to Pens pre-season game
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06-21-2011, 11:22 AM
  #27
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forget about Quebec city for the moment. With the crap that is happening about the new arena, I can't see a team coming here before at least two years.

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06-21-2011, 11:24 AM
  #28
Killion
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Originally Posted by Hamilton Tigers View Post
The NHL retains ownership and moves the franchise themselves to wherever.
Still on that one huh?. It could happen, but I dont think its very likely. They wont Contract, but they may be forced to Retract (their statements of no more relo's, their beyond reasonable & obtuse position over Copps & Hamilton). The price tag just keeps going up & up & up, and a Vegas, KC, Portland or Houston even if the buildings were not an issue and owners available, who BUT someone in Southern Ontario's going to dig into their jeans & pay whatever the league needs to get themselves out of hock over this debacle?. Its the only place in North America where a franchise is worth the kind of money the leagues lost.

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06-21-2011, 11:28 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
Hamilton - Arena (needs upgrades) with fan support (Ballsile ticket drive) and a possible owner (rumors of interested parties) but the fees associated encroachment of Toronto / Buffalo markets would be costly.
How costly? It could be as costly as the league alllows it to be. If there are no other alternatives, then the league just might be willing to coax Buffalo and Toronto or impose their will. Ya never know.

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06-21-2011, 11:33 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Hamilton Tigers View Post
How costly? It could be as costly as the league alllows it to be. If there are no other alternatives, then the league just might be willing to coax Buffalo and Toronto or impose their will. Ya never know.
Unfortunately, the league might think KC is a lessor "evil" than Hamilton. By "evil", I mean as having to move a franchise and the issues with the new market.

What were the relocation cost of Hamilton quoted by the league during the Phoenix bankruptcy?

Honestly, Hamilton would be the best if the hurdles can be overcome, but I don't think the league sees it as the HFBoard members do.

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06-21-2011, 11:48 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
Unfortunately, the league might think KC is a lessor "evil" than Hamilton. By "evil", I mean as having to move a franchise and the issues with the new market.

What were the relocation cost of Hamilton quoted by the league during the Phoenix bankruptcy?

Honestly, Hamilton would be the best if the hurdles can be overcome, but I don't think the league sees it as the HFBoard members do.
I agree, but as Killion points out, the longer the team stays in Phoenix the higher the price tag, and is K.C. going to command the coin necessary to cover the NHL's losses from buying and running the Coyotes?

Just how much of a discount, or hit is the NHL willing to take to try entice a K.C. buyer?

What kind of ticket prices would a K.C. franchise need to be viable. Salary cap is going up again.

Interesting times indeed.

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06-21-2011, 11:58 AM
  #32
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They will not contract while they're on the hook for $170+ million. Pretty much the same as giving it away at that point.

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06-21-2011, 12:01 PM
  #33
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You know what, I've been thinking about it. I ALMOST could buy into the move on spec thing.

I could see this if the league did some market research on two things: 1) shake the trees to see if there is any interest in owning a team, and 2) check the market wrt fan support.

If both of these were to pan out, the league could run a "Drive to 13" styled on TNSE's program complete with long term commitments. This would provide the team with guaranteed revenue streams intially and would give potential owners confidence to jump in with both feet.

Potentially this could be the way out if PHX doesn't work out (IMO any owner in PHX should make the purchase conditional on a minimum number of ST subscriptions too).
Okay, but let's take the Expos route to an extreme.

For years the DC area was clamoring for a baseball team, as the largest market in the States without one, even over the objection of the Orioles. That was somewhat mollified by giving the Orioles control of the newly-created MASN by putting the Nationals games on the station as well. Think of it as the indemnification fee.

So let's go with the theories that it has to be a larger market that would receive a team, or one with a ready arena and no tenant where the NHL team can control the arena revenues:

Largest in Canada:
Quebec - let's see if the replacement for Le Colisee gets off the ground by the end of the year
Hamilton - frought with the possible issue of paying a double indemnification fee.
Kitchener/Waterloo - needs arena

Largest in the US:
Atlanta - not with Atlanta Spirit ruini.. I mean running the show
Houston - only if Les Alexander (NBA Rockets owner) owns the team
Seattle - NHL has been talking to someone there; City of Seattle not interested in team or building new arena, so new arena would have to be built in suburbs
Sacramento - NBA team could be on brink of moving unless new arena built; new arena in planning stages but NBA owners couldn't buy team
Cleveland - Would have to be the guy that owns NBA Cavaliers
Orlando - Would have to be the guy that owns NBA Magic
Portland, OR - Would have to be the guy that owns NBA Trailblazers

Kansas City - Brand-spanking new arena without tenant; NHL team would help control arena with AEG (arena management company)

The only places for the NHL to relocate and auction off the team are Kansas City and Hamilton, with Quebec a possibility if they can get a new arena built.

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06-21-2011, 12:06 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by LadyStanley View Post
I've lost track of the BOH threads, but there have been some following the saga of trying to get an arena approved.

First, the UNLV facility is a goodly size, but they host so many events during the year, including year end rodeo in December that would mean any hockey team would traveling most of that month, and probably have horrendous ice and non-weekend schedules.

Second, there are economic issues way out of proportion to the rest of the country. Vegas is founded on gambling, which is discretionary spending and when the economy tanks in the country, Vegas has drastic reductions in revenue (think penthouse to tin shanty discrepancy).

Third, there's an issue of a single casino (think MGM Grand, Mirage, etc.) owning the facility. Other casinos, their competitors, may not get the suites, blocks of club seats, which the team/arena would need to support the team (corporate).

Fourth, there were some city zoning issues IIRC of one proposed (independent) site. And financing issues with the economy flailing.

Fifth, I have never seen an economic report/analysis that show how a franchise would fill it's arena. Are there enough tourists that would get tickets to come watch a visiting team? Are there enough folks/families who don't work nights willing to come to a game? (ECHL Vegas has only a 3000 seat venue; they have $3 "day of game walk up" seats available.

Sixth, there's the elephant in the room. Gambling. Another reason casinos wouldn't like it is that their sports book would be prohibited from taking NHL bets. Not to mention the potential for addiction in team personnel that could radically make NHL Security's life a living hell.

Well, that's some of the highlights of issues of having a team in Vegas. YMMV.
The only concrete proposal left is the Caesars/Harrah's owned project. That ballot proposal is going to the courts as I mentioned earlier in this thread. All the other proposals have flatlined due to various issues (zoning, financing, state legislature, etc.) It's funny that you call the Mack Center "a good size". The proposed Caesars arena would hold 22,000 people which is much larger than the 17,000 that the Mack Center holds for hockey. There has been some talk of replacing the Mack Center or using the Caesars arena for UNLV games. There's a good chance that the National Rodeo Finals that you mention will move to the new Dallas Cowboys stadium unless a new Vegas arena is built. The NRF's contract with Vegas runs out next year leaving them open for bidding and the Cowboys have already made heavy overtures. Also, the ECHL Vegas team averages 3,000 but they are in a 8,000 seat arena for hockey. The Orleans arena is pretty large for an ECHL team in a non traditional market.


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06-21-2011, 12:18 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Hamilton Tigers View Post
I agree, but as Killion points out, the longer the team stays in Phoenix the higher the price tag, and is K.C. going to command the coin necessary to cover the NHL's losses from buying and running the Coyotes?

Just how much of a discount, or hit is the NHL willing to take to try entice a K.C. buyer?

What kind of ticket prices would a K.C. franchise need to be viable. Salary cap is going up again.

Interesting times indeed.
Agreed with the higher price tag no matter where they end up. I really don't think there is an ownership group with deep pockets that Ballisle once had. Maybe AEG but then they would need to find an owner in the LA market to take the Kings (which won't be that hard and Bruckheimer might get his team then).

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06-21-2011, 12:30 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
Agreed with the higher price tag no matter where they end up. I really don't think there is an ownership group with deep pockets that Ballisle once had. Maybe AEG but then they would need to find an owner in the LA market to take the Kings (which won't be that hard and Bruckheimer might get his team then).
AEG is also part of the Vegas arena proposal. While it doesn't appear that they will have ownership in it, they will have the operating rights should it get approved on the ballot. AEG originally had plans to own and build an arena in Downtown Vegas before dropping out to join the Caesars/Harrah's proposal.

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06-21-2011, 01:31 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Mwd711 View Post
AEG is also part of the Vegas arena proposal. While it doesn't appear that they will have ownership in it, they will have the operating rights should it get approved on the ballot. AEG originally had plans to own and build an arena in Downtown Vegas before dropping out to join the Caesars/Harrah's proposal.
Yeah just saw that on the Wikipedia page. So IF the NHL unloads the 'Yotes to a non-local buyer, AEG owns/manages arenas (including the Rose Garden) or is planning to manage arena in cities that have been rumored as US relocation targets. I think Portland would be a much better market than KC. The Leiweke brothers had a common tie in Portland (Tod Leiweke was the CEO of Paul Allen's Vulcan Sports and Entertainment while Tim is the CEO of AEG).

Could the rumored Seattle group that met with Daly be associated with Tod Leiweke?


Last edited by SoCalShark: 06-21-2011 at 01:43 PM. Reason: Leiweke connection
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06-21-2011, 01:48 PM
  #38
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Okay, but let's take the Expos route to an extreme.


The only places for the NHL to relocate and auction off the team are Kansas City and Hamilton, with Quebec a possibility if they can get a new arena built.
I think that Portland could be on that list as well since there is a rumored Pacific NW group kicking the NHL tires. Quebec really has to sort the Arena mess out by the end of the year to be even considered. Unfortunately, KC is at the top of the list.

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06-21-2011, 01:49 PM
  #39
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Lol, I thought the thread title was a statement.

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06-21-2011, 02:06 PM
  #40
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Here's a question/scenario:

If there isn't a buyer either local or from another city and the CoG doesn't want to foot the bill (again)...

I'm going the Expos route: (Since DC was the biggest market in the US clamoring for a team.)
  • Which city would be the best city to relocate the team to?
  • Which city would provide the best chance for the team not to be a temporary resident, but make the move from "rental" to "mortgage"? (you know what I mean!)
  • Which city would provide the best chance at developing a fan base?
  • Which city would be the best at making the most money so the NHL (and the other 29 teams) don't have to foot the bill too much?

Quebec?
KC?
Portland?
Seattle?
Houston?
Hartford (yes, Hartford might be stretch)
Vegas?

Or, does the NHL finally sell it to Balsille and let him move them to Hamilton?

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06-21-2011, 02:08 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
So IF the NHL unloads the 'Yotes to a non-local buyer, AEG owns/manages arenas (including the Rose Garden) or is planning to manage arena in cities that have been rumored as US relocation targets. I think Portland would be a much better market than KC. The Leiweke brothers had a common tie in Portland (Tod Leiweke was the CEO of Paul Allen's Vulcan Sports and Entertainment while Tim is the CEO of AEG).

Could the rumored Seattle group that met with Daly be associated with Tod Leiweke?
And of course, AEG is also associated with Katz group's involvement with Hamilton's Copps Coliseum.

Quote:
Bob Black, Executive Vice President, Sports and Entertainment, Katz Group, said, "We are very pleased to work with the City of Hamilton to build on what is already a rich sports market and a key stop for major cultural attractions and live performances. For the Katz Group, this venture continues the growth of our sports and entertainment business, builds on our relationship with AEG, and opens the door to exploring additional real estate investments in Hamilton."...

..."Working with the Katz Group, we are on our way to creating a world class arena and sports and entertainment district in Edmonton and are looking forward to developing equally dynamic work in Hamilton," said Ted Tanner, Executive Vice President, AEG Real Estate Development.

In November 2009, the Katz Group engaged AEG Development and AEG Facilities, both divisions of AEG, to advise the company on all aspects of a new entertainment and sports district in downtown Edmonton, including the development of a new arena for the Oilers.

"Our work with the Katz Group in Hamilton is a natural expansion of our relationship," said Bob Newman, AEG Facilities Chief Operating Officer. "We strongly believe the greater Hamilton marketplace has the potential of becoming one of the region's most active sports and entertainment markets. We look forward to working with the City and stakeholders in creating this new state of the art venue."
http://revitalizedowntown.ca/katz-gr...s-in-hamilton/



And of course, the $1 million guarantee which has yet to be signed.

Quote:
CTV News has learned the owner of the Edmonton Oilers has made a $1 million guarantee to bring a National Hockey League team to southern Ontario...

...this is about Hamilton.

"It is an area we think is… very interesting from the point of property development. We really like what is going on here."

Sources say the confidential negotiations include four years of NHL rights for Copps Coliseum. If an NHL team does not serve as the anchor tenant, Daryl Katz would be on the hook for the pledged $1 million.

Hamilton officials will not speak publicly about the meeting because they say many details still need to be ironed out

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06-21-2011, 02:18 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by Crazy Ivan View Post
Yes, I was looking for something more concrete.

So, we are left with:
1) Leave the team in Glendale, keep searching for a buyer there or elsewhere, while the NHL operates the team and eats the losses.
2) The NHL moves the team to someplace and goes the Montreal Expos route:
a) Kansas City: There's an arena there. Try to find fan support and a buyer.
b) Quebec: Arena on the way...facility to play in in the mean time.
c) Convince Lee in Houston to buy the team.
d) Vegas: See Kansas City.
e) Portland? Being granted a team might jump-start 'new arena' talk since they have an NHL team. The Rose Garden houses the Portland Winterhawks, so, they do have a rink ready.
f) Seattle? Don't know if they have an arena ready.
1) I don't see this happening, really. Glendale won't be able to eat another year, and the owners will revolt if they're stuck with the tab again. Unless they get a new owner by the end of the upcoming season, the NHL will be shopping the team to interested buyers elsewhere.

2)A) Kansas City is possible, but I'd put them in thirds in the grand scheme of things for the simple fact that I'm not sure that there's a really strong potential owner in place there that has expressed interest yet.

B) Quebec City entirely depends on if they can get funding for their new arena in the next year. If they can, they're the #1 choice for an expansion/relocation team even if they need to play for 3 or 4 years in the Colisee.

C) Houston is an interesting option. If Lee's interested, Houston has to be a prohibitive favor as well. That'd be especially interesting as there'd finally be a sensible rival for the Stars.

D) No way. Ignoring the simple fact that Las Vegas has been hit harder than almost any other city by the recent recession, the issue of gambling is a major sticky issue, not to mention the lack of a suitable, modern arena and questions if Vegas is really a suitable sports town or not.

E) Eh, I don't know.... call me a skeptic, but I don't see Portland being large enough to simultaneously house an NBA and an NHL team. That'd just split the public's ability to spend money on sports at the same time. Portland is a stronger candidate for an MLB team for the simple fact that the overlap between the MLB and NBA seasons is fairly small.

F) They don't, they won't get an NBA or NHL team until they get a new facility, and that's probably at least a decade away.

So, if I had to rank 'em....

Quebec City (with an arena plan) > Houston (with a willing owner) > Kansas City (with a willing owner)

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06-21-2011, 02:36 PM
  #43
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I agree, but as Killion points out, the longer the team stays in Phoenix the higher the price tag,
This is incorrect. As much as the NHL would love to do so, raising the price tag to cover the accumulated losses from Phoenix is unrealistic. That would be like trying to sell RIM stock at $60 because it was bought at that price and you want to recoup all of your losses. If anything, the NHL is more likely to get less from a sale of the Coyotes as their annual losses accumulate because a prospective buyer might jump in try and buy a team on the cheap knowing that some of the BoG must be getting desperate to sell.

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Originally Posted by Haymaker View Post
Right now the league can afford to charge an inflated price for the team since someone else is covering most of the losses. The second COG stops writing cheques, the league will just take what they can get and wash their hands of the situation.
This is much more likely to be correct. At some point you take your haircut and get out.

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06-21-2011, 03:58 PM
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Originally Posted by No Fun Shogun View Post
1) I don't see this happening, really. Glendale won't be able to eat another year, and the owners will revolt if they're stuck with the tab again. Unless they get a new owner by the end of the upcoming season, the NHL will be shopping the team to interested buyers elsewhere.

2)A) Kansas City is possible, but I'd put them in thirds in the grand scheme of things for the simple fact that I'm not sure that there's a really strong potential owner in place there that has expressed interest yet.

B) Quebec City entirely depends on if they can get funding for their new arena in the next year. If they can, they're the #1 choice for an expansion/relocation team even if they need to play for 3 or 4 years in the Colisee.

C) Houston is an interesting option. If Lee's interested, Houston has to be a prohibitive favor as well. That'd be especially interesting as there'd finally be a sensible rival for the Stars.

D) No way. Ignoring the simple fact that Las Vegas has been hit harder than almost any other city by the recent recession, the issue of gambling is a major sticky issue, not to mention the lack of a suitable, modern arena and questions if Vegas is really a suitable sports town or not.

E) Eh, I don't know.... call me a skeptic, but I don't see Portland being large enough to simultaneously house an NBA and an NHL team. That'd just split the public's ability to spend money on sports at the same time. Portland is a stronger candidate for an MLB team for the simple fact that the overlap between the MLB and NBA seasons is fairly small.

F) They don't, they won't get an NBA or NHL team until they get a new facility, and that's probably at least a decade away.

So, if I had to rank 'em....

Quebec City (with an arena plan) > Houston (with a willing owner) > Kansas City (with a willing owner)
With KC and now Houston having pre-season games being played in those cities, the NHL may be testing possible fan support. I find the Houston news interesting because it is not in the NBA/AHL Arena and the Coyotes will be one of the teams. If there will be a pre-season game in Portland and one in Quebec then we can assume the NHL is really looking to move the 'yotes. Vegas doesn't count since the Kings and Avalanche have a regular pre-season game there.

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06-21-2011, 04:56 PM
  #45
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This is incorrect. As much as the NHL would love to do so, raising the price tag to cover the accumulated losses from Phoenix is unrealistic.
Yet thats the position there in; thats the reality on the ground in Phoenix; thats the reality if the franchise is eventually sold for relocation; thats precisely what there doing. Gary Bettman told the BOG's that this adventure wouldnt cost them a dime. The price tag as of right now is app. $202M & climbing. Nearly double what the Thrashers sold for (excl the relo fee). See Fugu's & other posts on page 1 of this thread. Its crazy. Of course its incorrect & unrealistic. Thats why everyones so completely bewildered, baffled & disturbed about it. No reasonable person would ever accept such terms & gladly pay double or 175%+ more than the damn frabchise is worth in Phoenix or anywhere else EXCEPT Southern Ontario.

Absent an owner with a commitment & vision for the team as is where is who can buy it for app. $100M with a generous city paid Arena Mgmnt Contract; the provisions of a CFD, which are now on-hold as Westgate goes through its foreclosure & ultimately an auction, the team charging for parking, increasing ticket prices, launching an aggressive corporate sponsorship & suite/ticket sales campaign, like yesterday; increasing concert & event bookings, like starting months ago, we are going to be witnessing come October if none of this is completed & executed, a meltdown & embarrassment of epic proportions for this league.

If Gary Bettman is given the latitude to apply TNSE $60M Relo Fee to paying down the LOC the NHL's used to buy & run the team, cover the losses in addition to the COG's 10-11 & promised 11-12 $25M "Arena Mgmnt Fee's", then the price tage can be lowered to within range of getting it done. Further, theres the Moyes civil litigation, the league seeking $63M for various breeches going back to 08-09. How much they wind up with would be a guesstimate, but even if its $15-$35M that to could be used to further pay down the LOC & lower the price.

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06-21-2011, 05:05 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
With KC and now Houston having pre-season games being played in those cities, the NHL may be testing possible fan support. I find the Houston news interesting because it is not in the NBA/AHL Arena and the Coyotes will be one of the teams. If there will be a pre-season game in Portland and one in Quebec then we can assume the NHL is really looking to move the 'yotes. Vegas doesn't count since the Kings and Avalanche have a regular pre-season game there.
There's one preseason game planned In Quebec.

This is going to be the 3rd consecutive year we get one.

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06-21-2011, 05:58 PM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Kebekoi View Post
1. Québec (once they agree on the new building this fall)
2. Houston (if Alexander is still interested)
3. Kansas City (if AEG can sell its parts in the Kings and sell the market to the BOG)
4. Hamilton (if Balsillie or another don't do silly antics)
5. Portland/Seattle (if the NHL could find an ownership to build an arena and/or pay for the team)
Last I heard that deal to build a rink in Quebec is illegal and is likely going to get shot down.
Why would AEG have to sell the Kings? They manage the arena in KC...they wouldn't be the Owner of a team there.
Portland/Seattle seems like they are a long way off....well past the 12/13 season.
Like Winnipeg....Hamilton would be the best 'right now' option...assuming whoever was the Owner would guarantee the league the facility will be adequately renovated or a new one built within X number of years.

I really can't see the NHL folding a single team...it would have to be two. I would think it would look better for the league to sell a team to an Owner in a market they really don't want (ie, Winnipeg) to avoid a team completely failing and being folded.

The development around Jobing going belly up certainly doesn't help the chances of the team staying put. But, I don't think there was really a chance to begin with....

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06-21-2011, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by SoCalShark View Post
With KC and now Houston having pre-season games being played in those cities, the NHL may be testing possible fan support. I find the Houston news interesting because it is not in the NBA/AHL Arena and the Coyotes will be one of the teams. If there will be a pre-season game in Portland and one in Quebec then we can assume the NHL is really looking to move the 'yotes. Vegas doesn't count since the Kings and Avalanche have a regular pre-season game there.
Pre-season games aren't to test anything...otherwise London, Ontario would have a team already. They sellout preseason games and tickets go for like $80 to $120 a seat.

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06-21-2011, 06:22 PM
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How costly? It could be as costly as the league alllows it to be. If there are no other alternatives, then the league just might be willing to coax Buffalo and Toronto or impose their will. Ya never know.
Basille and others are willing to pay those costs. It is up to Bettman to allow it to happen.

My guess is that the team will remain in Pheonix until the COG stops writing 25 million dollar checks. But I worry that without Bryz, the win/loss ration is going to go down and losses will continue to go up. I predicted that the team would remain in Glendale this past year, I don't see it happening again though.

What we should be asking is:

Would Bettman allow the team to play in the old Colisee?

Is there ownership willing to pay for a team along with expansion fee's in Houston/KC/Seattle etc.

If they contracted the league they would have to delete two teams, which one would be the other to go?

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06-21-2011, 06:26 PM
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Pre-season games aren't to test anything...otherwise London, Ontario would have a team already.
Uh oh. Now youve' done it. London Ontario; nearly 500,000 strong including surrounding environs; home to several H.O.'s in the IT & Bio-Med sectors; Ford, Toyota & aftermarket mfgs' by the dozen in the auto sector; 3M, the UWO; one of the highest income levels per household in Canada; the John Labatt Center holding 9100 for hockey with the possibility of reno's & buildouts to accommodate another 5500. Convenient to the 401.

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