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Old
09-07-2003, 05:48 AM
  #1
Lowetide
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Crystal Ball (no, really).

Line 1
Ryan Smyth 29-36-65. Smyth leads the team once again in scoring.
Mike Comrie 30-26-56. Based on him signing and being at camp, he's got something to prove and is a quality goal scorer.
Ales Hemsky 13-40-53. Becomes the team's PP quarterback, and leads the team in assists.

Line2
Mike York 23-29-52. Moves between center and LW on the 2line, and is forced to spend more time as a PKer than on the PP. His numbers suffer slightly.
Radek Dvorak 20-24-44. Dvorak ignites the powerplay.
Brad Isbister 13-19-32. Continues to leave fans wanting more, and is shuffled between the 2 and 4 lines all season.
Shawn Horcoff 13-22-35. Continues to make small steps forward, and fills in at center when Isbister is in the doghouse.


Line3
Marty Reasoner 10-19-29. Builds on last season's success, and becomes the new Marchant with fewer breakaways.
Fernando Pisani 7-11-18. Doesn't supply the offense that he did last season, but is a solid checking winger.
Ethan Moreau 6-6-12. Plays his usual role on the 3line until his trade in early January.
Jani Rita 5-4-9. Called up after the Moreau trade, he adds some offense and establishes himself as a checking winger on the Oilers.


Line4
Jason Chimera 15-13-28. Once again scores at a tremendous clip compared to his ice time.
Raffi Torres 5-9-14. Becomes a crowd favourite, but doesn't find the net often.
Georges Laraque 6-10-16. BG sees the press box several times during the season.
Jarret Stoll 5-7-12. Is called up in January, and impresses with his all around game.
Peter Sarno 0-5-5. 14th forward plays in 2 games a month.
Jamie Wright 0-2-2. Gets a few games in when the Oilers have injuries.
Brad Winchester 0-0-0. First 2000 Oiler draft to get a cup of coffee.



D
Eric Brewer 9-30-39. Big season for Brewer, he combines with Hemsky on the powerplay.
Steve Staios 2-17-19. Continues to play gritty hockey and supply the Oilers with someone they can count on.
Alexei Semenov 3-12-15. Once again impresses as a young defenseman with smarts.
Jason Smith 3-9-12. Healthy all season, he returns to his edgy play of a couple of seasons ago.
MA Bergeron 1-11-12. The Oilers #6 defender, drives the coach crazy but keeps the job, and passes Cross eventually.
Mikko Luoma 1-6-7. On the Edmonton-Toronto shuttle, fills in well when needed.
Cory Cross 1-4-5. Struggles with speedy wingers, and finds the press box several times.
Scott Ferguson 0-3-3. Claimed on waivers by the Maple Leafs a few weeks into the season.
Jan Horacek 0-1-1. Late season callup impresses the coaches and delights fans with truly filthy play.
Doug Lynch 0-0-0. Gets a 4 game look at mid-season.
Rocky Thompson 0-0-0. Plays one game. Against Dallas.

G
Tommy Salo 61gp, 27W, .902SP, 2.62. Salo recovers and has a solid season. Numbers would be better, but you have to allow for his slumps.
Ty Conklin 21gp, 9W, .904SP, 2.38. Not Markkanen, but Conklin settles in after a poor start and has a good season.



GF: 220
GA: 210

8th place.

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09-07-2003, 07:13 AM
  #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Jan Horacek 0-1-1. Late season callup impresses the coaches and delights fans with truly filthy play.
That'd be great.

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09-07-2003, 08:10 AM
  #3
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No confidence that our defence wil score any goals?? 3 was the max, after Brewer, we should score more then that

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Old
09-07-2003, 08:17 AM
  #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Rocky Thompson 0-0-0. Plays one game. Against Dallas.
Classic!

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09-07-2003, 10:07 AM
  #5
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Line 1
Ryan Smyth 24 - 35 - 59. Fair season for Smyth, less injuries, but still out there, working hard. Shows some signs of being worn down as the season goes on.
Mike York 27 - 38 - 65. Leads the Oilers in points with a strong season. Works hard all season and plays 21:00+ minutes a game. A real workhorse.
Radek Dvorak 32 - 27 - 59. Dvorak is given the onus to score, score, and score some more. He does just that. Leads the team in goals.

Line2
Mke Comrie 20 - 27 - 47. Comrie starts slow (perhaps due to missing camp or a holdout) and is traded during the season.
Ales Hemsky 9 - 32 - 41. Good developmental year for Hemsky. He really turns it on late in the season again, and gives Oilers fans hope for a big breakout after the lockout season.
Ethan Moreau 19 - 24 - 43. Moreau puts up a career year playing on the Oilers second line. Plays really hard and is pointed to as the quintisential Oiler - hard working mucker and grinder who can skate like the wind.
Brad Isbister 15 - 22 - 37. Isbister gets put on all the lines whenever some toughness is needed. Finally realizes he isn't going to be a scorer and works on his defensive game to make himself a good roleplayer in the league for years to come.


Line3
Shawn Horcoff 9 - 20 - 29. Horcoff has another good season on the Oilers third line. Nothing spectacular, mind you.
Fernando Pisani 8 - 12 - 20. Pisani works hard and has a couple of GWG's, but is scratched at times during the season.
Georges Laraque 4 - 10 - 14. Laraque goes back to his roots and starts beating up people again.
Marty Reasoner 3 - 13 - 17. End of the line for Marty.


Line4
Jason Chimera 16 - 16 - 34. Big season for Chimera, but it takes MacTavish an eon to realize it. 6 GWG's lead the team.
Raffi Torres 9 - 14 - 23. The flying buzzsaw gets a permanent spot on the Oilers and plays his first NHL full season.
Jared Stoll 1 - 11 - 12. Plays about 30 games and takes over for Reasoner late in the season. Stoll gives hope up the middle for Oiler fans everywhere.
Jamie Wright 0- 8 - 8. Reduced role is all Jamie will get.



D
Eric Brewer 6 - 28 - 34. Brewer bounces back somewhat from last year and posts career highs. Not a #1 man, but finally blossoms and plateaus next year into a fine #2.
Steve Staios 2 - 18 - 20. Staios is given big, big minutes, and again plays well, which time for the entire season.
Alexei Semenov 5 - 9 - 14. A couple big PP goals, Semenov has essentially another developmental season. A bit of a letdown, but lots of sophmores have a bit of a slump.
Jason Smith 0 - 19 - 19. Wins the 'Bill Muckalt' award for the Oilers. But it's not Smith's job to score goals anyways.
MA Bergeron 2 - 8 - 10. Doesn't play a full season.
Bobby Allen 0 - 1 - 1. Ditto.
Cory Cross 1 - 14 - 15. A bit of a surprise offensivly. Cross will get more minutes than last season too.
Scott Ferguson 0 - 2 - 2. Not a full season.

G
Tommy Salo 67GP, 26W, .902SP, 2.81
Ty Conklin 13GP, 6W, .888SP, 3.01
Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers 1GP, 1W, .1000SP, 0.00


GF: 212
GA: 240

10th place.

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Old
09-07-2003, 10:15 AM
  #6
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Hmm...

You guys all seem to think Salo is going to tank. I have faith that Tommy Gun is going to come back to form and be the surprise of the year on the Oilers. Let's put it this way: If Cloutier can have over 30 wins on the Canucks - Salo can have the same on the Oilers. I think the team is going to play better in front of him and looking at Conklin during the AHL playoffs leads me to think he's better than Markkanen and will prove it.

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Old
09-07-2003, 10:31 AM
  #7
Lowetide
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nikeisevil
Hmm...

You guys all seem to think Salo is going to tank.
Salo 02-03: 65gp, 29W, 2.71, .899 (what he did)
Salo 03-04: 61gp, 27W, 2.62, .902 (my prediction)

Slight improvement, I'd say. Salo has become a pretty streaky goalie, and I don't think he was as bad last season as some say.

I don't think he's stolen a game for the Oilers in a long time, though, so the .913SP and the 2.22 GAA are gone, imo.

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Old
09-07-2003, 10:58 AM
  #8
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Line 1
Ryan Smyth 30-32-62. Ryan plays 78 games, and continues his role as the Oilers top forward and franchise player.
Mike Comrie 29-20-49. Misses 10-15 Games due to holdout. Mike finishes the year with 49 points, but is plus +15. He impresses the entire coaching staff with a dedicated season.
Ales Hemsky 14-33-47. Ales continues his strong play, starts shooting more, and continues his brilliant passing game. Becomes a lynchpin on the PP with Smytty.

Line2
Brad Isbister 15-22-37. Slow offensive season for Izzy, but he works on his consistent physical play, and shows he is genuinely happy to be an Oiler.
Mike York 24-27-51. Plays great in all situations, scores, sets up plays, checks, hits, aggravates, etc. Wins Team MVP award, breaking Salo's streak.
Radek Dvorak 20-24-44. Guess what? The Oilers finally have enough parts to create a legitimate second line that consistently produces. Dvorak is a big part of the reason why.

Line3
Ethan Moreau 6-10-16. Ethan plays like a freight train in camp and at the start of the season, but Lowe decides that he wants to go with the kids and deals Ethan by the end of November, getting good value in return, ala the Grier trade.
Jani Rita 12-16-28. Seamlessly replaces Moreau on the RPM line. Shows great strength on the puck, and a solid two-way effort most nights. Most of his points come in the second half.
Marty Reasoner 15-15-30. Marty's best season. He takes the lessons he learned from last season, and continues to develop into a Marchant-esque checker and role-player. Great chemistry with Pisani
Fernando Pisani 6-12-18. We know what we are getting with Fernando, which is why he finds himself in the pressbox for 40+ games, taking a back seat to Jason Chimera on this line.
Jason Chimera 16-20-36. The key offensive player on the third line, Chimera wins the coaches confidence with a renewed committment to two-way play and aggressive forechecking.

Line4

" Raffi Torres 9 - 14 - 23. The flying buzzsaw gets a permanent spot on the Oilers and plays his first NHL full season " - Mizral. (Sounds right to me)
Shawn Horcoff 10-22-32. Scores most of these points in the first half during the Comrie holdout, playing on the second line with Dvorak and Isbister. When Comrie comes back, Horc takes it like a trooper and plays great on the 4th line, becoming a vital part of the PK.
Georges Laraque 8-10-18. Makes Calgary's Oliwa his ***** on 3 separate occasions, continues his physical dominance of the Flames and Stars. Forgets that there are 27 other teams in the league, as usual.

D
Eric Brewer 8-22-30. Our #1. Maybe not a "genuine" number one - but if he's what we've got. Continues the learning process. No steps backward, no monumental leaps forward.
Steve Staios 4-16-20. Staios gets an A, not only for effort, but for leadership on the ice. Great, reliable defenceman.
Alexei Semenov 10-9-19. Scores some great PP goals with that shot - continues to use his big frame to control the oppositions forwards well.
Jason Smith 2-12-14. The Captain returns to form, making his side of the ice a painful, lonely place for the opposition. Loses more teeth, sets career highs in hits, blocked shots, comparisons to Aragorn.
Mikko Luoma 4-14-18. The suprise of camp. Luoma comes in and earns a spot on the second PP. Comparable to Bill Houlder in play, this overage finn makes Lowe and Co. look shrewd once more. Very coachable player.
Cory Cross 3-8-11. His footspeed isn't a huge problem, as he is smart enough positionally to compensate. However, reliability is, as fatigue sets in during November, forcing a trade to bring in another d-man, dropping Cross back to a more comfortable #5-6 slot.
Scott Ferguson Not graded - Doesn't play more than 40 games.

G
Tommy Salo 61GP, 27W, .906SP, 2.76
Ty Conklin 19GP, 10W, .921SP, 2.12
Steve Valiquette 2GP, 1W .897SP, 2.88


GF: 228
GA: 220

8th

Oilers upset the Stars in the first round, lose to the Nucks in the second.

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Old
09-07-2003, 11:09 AM
  #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lowetide
Salo 02-03: 65gp, 29W, 2.71, .899 (what he did)
Salo 03-04: 61gp, 27W, 2.62, .902 (my prediction)

Slight improvement, I'd say. Salo has become a pretty streaky goalie, and I don't think he was as bad last season as some say.

I don't think he's stolen a game for the Oilers in a long time, though, so the .913SP and the 2.22 GAA are gone, imo.
True - but this year he worked with Pete Peeters throughout the summer to improve his game. Previous years didn't have that.

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Old
09-07-2003, 12:03 PM
  #10
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Line 1
Ryan Smyth (26-39-65) Doesn't get a 30-goal season but his chemistry with Hemsky is evident.
Mike Comrie (30-25-55) Signs a contract before the start of the season but misses part of training camp. His performance suffers a bit as a result but he still nets 30 goals.
Ales Hemsky (15-30-45) Developmental year for Hemsky; he goes through a few slumps during the season but remains consistent enough to break 40 points.
GF: 71

Line 2
Mike York (25-26-51) Plays LW most of the season and performs equally well on both the PP and the PK. Extremely versatile.
Shawn Horcoff (14-21-35) Continues to improve every season. Is extremely streaky, however.
Radek Dvorak (25-19-44) Scores at a relatively consistent rate and provides offensive support when the first line falters.
GF: 64

Line 3
Brad Isbister (13-16-29) Dazzles fans with stellar offensive zone work at times, and becomes invisible on the ice a shift later. Puts up reasonable third-line numbers.
Marty Reasoner (14-12-26) Solid defensive checker; considering his on-ice opposition, he puts up admirable numbers.
Jason Chimera (13-9-22) Scores clutch goals and provides an energy spark for the team during their annual mid-year slump. Doesn't play every game, though.
Jani Rita (5-9-14) Called up at times during the year and earns a permanent spot on the big club with his board play and tenacity.
Ethan Moreau (12-10-22) Stays with the team throughout the year, to the surprise of many.
GF: 57

Line 4
Raffi Torres (6-10-16) Energy and more energy. Shows signs of offensive potential, but doesn't score as often as the fans would like to see him.
Jarret Stoll (3-8-11) Called up and sent back down repeatedly during the season, eventually earning a semi-permanent spot on the big club after an impressive game against Calgary.
Fernando Pisani (7-9-16) Here, but not nearly as effective or as good as Lowe had hoped.
Georges Laraque (3-5-8) Traded by the deadline for a defenseman.
GF: 19

Defensemen
Eric Brewer (8-29-37) Develops into a strong #2 defenseman. Plays in every situation. Scores at least one clutch goal during the playoffs.
Steve Staios (5-13-18) Fills into a #3/#4 role perfectly. Along with Brewer, the only Oiler defenseman capable of making an accurate outlet pass.
Jason Smith (2-10-12) The captain does what he should do. Leads the team in PIM, though.
Alexei Semenov (3-8-11) Disappoints offensively, but his defensive game improves by leaps and bounds over last year.
Cory Cross (2-7-9) Doesn't play a full season. Is burned by faster forwards.
Scott Ferguson (0-3-3) MacT refuses to take him out of the lineup until a horrible game against Colorado where Fergie and Cross give up all 6 goals against.
Marc-Andre Bergeron (3-6-9) In limited time with the big club, he impresses on the power play with his decision-making.
Mikko Luoma (0-7-7) Plays more than expected and earns an endorsement from MacT during an interview on "After Hours."
GF: 23

Goaltenders
Tommy Salo (66 GP, 29W, 0.902, 2.59) I guess you could call it a rebound year. Nothing spectacular, though.
Ty Conklin (16 GP, 9W, 0.897, 2.80) Gets enormous offensive support during his starts and wins some key games down the stretch.

GF: 234
GA: 230
Wins: 38
Points: 92
Placing: 7th place, tied with Anaheim for points but with one more win.
First-round playoff matchup: Vs. Los Angeles; we win the series 4-2
Second-round playoff matchup: Vs. Colorado; we lose the series 4-1

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Old
09-07-2003, 04:56 PM
  #11
LoudmouthHemskyfan#1
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65 points for Smyth??? 50 for Comrie??? 45-50 for Hemsky???
Horrible seasons

No breakouts at all??? Dvorak? Isbister? Reasoner? Chimera? NO ONE???

I'd be horribly dissapointed with any of those seasons frankly. This team is alot more talented than having ONE PLAYER over 60 points and only 2 or 3 over 50.

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09-07-2003, 05:05 PM
  #12
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Line 1
Ryan Smyth (33-39-72) Plays full season, and really picks up steam at the end of the year when talk of 2004 World Cup tournament starts up
Mike York (21-36-57) Doesn't get a lot of powerplay time, but his versatility allows him to pick up a ton of extra ES minutes with Marchant gone.
Ales Hemsky (11-45-56) Despite getting some pressbox time due to an extended slump in November, he finds his game as the PP quarterback and is a big part of why Smyth goes on his late-season run.

GF: 65

Line 2
Brad Isbister (23-24-47) As the player who benefits the most from Simpson's hiring, Isbister drives to the net harder, uses his body more effectively to create space, and gets at least 13 garbage goals.
Mike Comrie (24-40-64) No holdout, but has trouble finding game at start of season as he drops some of his old tricks. Getting put on the second line helps him find some chemistry with Devo and Izzy.
Radek Dvorak (29-20-49) Gets 15 powerplay goals to lead team.
GF: 76

Line 3
Ethan Moreau (5-5-10) Another explosive start allows Lowe to trade him when his value is highest after 18 games.
Jason Chimera (14-18-32) Not a bad season considering he only gets in to the lineup after Moreau is gone and plays 64 games.
Shawn Horcoff (18-20-38) A solid season, as Horc almost reaches 20-20.
Jani Rita (12-16-28) Unbelievable play gets him a spot to start the season. Although his production starts to taper half way through, he manages to play the majority of the games due to grit and consistent defensive play.
GF: 49

Line 4
Raffi Torres (11-16-27) Shows some promise on the offensive side, but electrifies fans with his punishing hits... draws more penalties than any other Oiler.
Marty Reasoner (9-20-29) Only scores nine goals but hits the post 54 times. Gets sporadic third line duty to take key draws.
Fernando Pisani (8-10-18) Gets a fair number of games, as Laraque ends up playing primarily against divisional rivals.
Georges Laraque (5-6-11) Another step back, Lowe is happy he only signed for one year.
GF: 33

Defensemen
Eric Brewer (12-25-37) Finally starts to develop some consistancy. Still room for improvement, but plays with a chip on his shoulder and handles the puck with more confidence.
Steve Staios (4-16-20) Looks tired going in to the playoffs due to 23 minutes per game - Staios-style.
Jason Smith (1-13-14) Plays his heart out, and leads by example. Still making terrible outlet passes. Scores only goal in last game with a beautiful end-to-end highlite-reel effort.
Alexei Semenov (6-7-13) Scores a few powerplay goals, but shows a bit of sophmore jinx. After about 20 games in-and-out of the pressbox, starts to pull things together again during the stretch drive.
Cory Cross (1-4-5) First a knee injury, then a back injury. Only gets in about 35 games.
Marc-Andre Bergeron (3-16-19) Gets a number of games due to Cross injury, but PP is only real benifactor, as he makes a number of poor decisions. Accidently runs in to Laraque during game in Calgary and sends him flying, Calgary media goes crazy and talks about it for the rest of the year (ala MacT and Harvey the Hound).
Mikko Luoma (4-14-18) Rounds out top 6, and surprises with consistent play.
Scott Ferguson (0-1-1) Only plays about ten games.
Doug Lynch (0-0-0) Plays 3 games, shows promise but not quite ready.
GF: 31

Goaltenders
Tommy Salo (60 GP, 29W, 0.912, 2.41) A slow start sees him watching Conklin from the bench for much of late October and November, but draws in right before the Heritage game - agianst Toronto and gets a shut out. From that point on he goes on a tear and starts to win back the fans.
Ty Conklin (28 GP, 12W, 0.901, 2.64) A great training camp gives MacT the confidence to dress him as Salo slumps, but proves he's not number one material yet and starts to slump a bit in mid-November.

GF: 254
GA: 204
Wins: 41
Points: 95
Placing: 6th place - one point behind LA
First-round playoff matchup: Vs. Dallas; we win the series 4-3
Second-round playoff matchup: Vs. Detroit; we lose the series 4-3

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Old
09-07-2003, 05:12 PM
  #13
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for what it's worth, re: D predictions for scoring, McKeen's has Luoma at 75 GP, 3/24/27, 2nd on team D scoring behind only Brewer.

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09-07-2003, 05:22 PM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LoudmouthHemskyfan#1
65 points for Smyth??? 50 for Comrie??? 45-50 for Hemsky???
Horrible seasons

No breakouts at all??? Dvorak? Isbister? Reasoner? Chimera? NO ONE???

I'd be horribly dissapointed with any of those seasons frankly. This team is alot more talented than having ONE PLAYER over 60 points and only 2 or 3 over 50.
65 points is reasonable to expect from Smyth, I think. He won't get more points unless we somehow get a center that can control the boards (i.e. has height), which would translate into a few more goals and assists here and there.

50 for Comrie: He's shown himself to be a 50-point producer over his young career. Expecting too much more out of him at this point wouldn't really be fair to him (unless he signs a hefty contract, in which case I would expect a 70-point campaign).

45-50 for Hemsky is horrible? The guy is in his second year, and he's extremely young. Barring any sophomore slump, I think a 40 point season for him is respectable and progressive.

As for breakouts, they are a possibility. But to be realistic, any major breakouts from any of our top-6 forwards would be gravy. For the first time in years, we don't actually need anyone to break out to be successful offensively; we have the players to go for a more balanced attack.

You would be disappointed; that's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I think this team is talented too, but it's more of a balance of talent in my mind.

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09-07-2003, 05:39 PM
  #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned
65 points is reasonable to expect from Smyth, I think. He won't get more points unless we somehow get a center that can control the boards (i.e. has height), which would translate into a few more goals and assists here and there.

50 for Comrie: He's shown himself to be a 50-point producer over his young career. Expecting too much more out of him at this point wouldn't really be fair to him (unless he signs a hefty contract, in which case I would expect a 70-point campaign).

45-50 for Hemsky is horrible? The guy is in his second year, and he's extremely young. Barring any sophomore slump, I think a 40 point season for him is respectable and progressive.

As for breakouts, they are a possibility. But to be realistic, any major breakouts from any of our top-6 forwards would be gravy. For the first time in years, we don't actually need anyone to break out to be successful offensively; we have the players to go for a more balanced attack.

You would be disappointed; that's your opinion and you're entitled to it. I think this team is talented too, but it's more of a balance of talent in my mind.
Well seeing as Smyth just got 61 points last year in a season where he missed time due to an injury, 65 in a healthy season isn't very good. As for a tall centre... that is just plain over-rated. Why is your centre on the boards anyway, that isn't his job.

Comrie has shown to be a 50 point player??? When? His first year he got 60, and last year he got 51, and missed a lot of time due to an injury. If he only gets 50 next year, there are some serious problems.

I think the Oilers would be absolutely ecstatic if Hemsky pulled up 55 or so points, but for Smyth and Comrie, the Oilers need around 70 from each, which both can do if they play the whole season.

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09-07-2003, 06:05 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dawgbone
Well seeing as Smyth just got 61 points last year in a season where he missed time due to an injury, 65 in a healthy season isn't very good. As for a tall centre... that is just plain over-rated. Why is your centre on the boards anyway, that isn't his job.

Comrie has shown to be a 50 point player??? When? His first year he got 60, and last year he got 51, and missed a lot of time due to an injury. If he only gets 50 next year, there are some serious problems.

I think the Oilers would be absolutely ecstatic if Hemsky pulled up 55 or so points, but for Smyth and Comrie, the Oilers need around 70 from each, which both can do if they play the whole season.
Let's think about this realistically. Good offensive clubs today score around 246 goals a year (3 goals a game). If Comrie and Smyth both get 70, AND you expect Hemsky to pull 55, AND York to pull 55, AND players like Dvorak, Chimera, Isbister, etc. to breakout, we're looking at an unbelievable offensive season for the Oilers.

Putting it in perspective:
Tanguay (on a line with Forsberg and Hejduk) got 67 points last year.
Morrison (on a line with Naslund and Bertuzzi) got 71 points last year.

So to expect both Smyth and Comrie to put up 70 is unreasonable, because they don't have the third player to put up the numbers. What I'm saying is you would need Hemsky and Dvorak (or some other RW combination) to get 70 points together WHILE only playing exclusively with Smyth and Comrie, and not with anyone else. Even if Hemsky gets 40, that means Dvorak would need 30 points while playing with those two. Unreasonable, in my mind. Smyth only got 70 points once in his career, and that was playing with Weight and Guerin/Carter. Weight got 90 points that season and Guerin/Carter pulled up 66. In regards to Comrie, he might get 60, but he won't get 70. There just isn't enough there.

In short, expecting ONE of Smyth or Comrie to get 70 is reasonable, but IMHO, it isn't realistic to expect BOTH to get 70.

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09-07-2003, 06:28 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned
Putting it in perspective:
Tanguay (on a line with Forsberg and Hejduk) got 67 points last year.
Morrison (on a line with Naslund and Bertuzzi) got 71 points last year.

So to expect both Smyth and Comrie to put up 70 is unreasonable, because they don't have the third player to put up the numbers. What I'm saying is you would need Hemsky and Dvorak (or some other RW combination) to get 70 points together WHILE only playing exclusively with Smyth and Comrie, and not with anyone else. Even if Hemsky gets 40, that means Dvorak would need 30 points while playing with those two. Unreasonable, in my mind. Smyth only got 70 points once in his career, and that was playing with Weight and Guerin/Carter. Weight got 90 points that season and Guerin/Carter pulled up 66. In regards to Comrie, he might get 60, but he won't get 70. There just isn't enough there.
I don't get your logic.

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09-07-2003, 06:40 PM
  #18
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Originally Posted by MrMackey
I don't get your logic.
Alrite, maybe it's just me then. But IMO, for players to get to certain point totals, their linemates have to acquire certain point totals as well. Unless you are a Lemieux and can get points no matter who plays with you, there's a limit on how many points you can score. That limit is dependant upon a lot of things (ice time, talent, luck, etc.), but an important factor is linemates.

If both Smyth and Comrie get 70 points, then I think we are looking at more than just an offensive breakout season. That would imply Hemsky NOT going into a sophomore slump. That would imply Dvorak scoring consistently and developing chemistry. That would imply a better power play. That would imply a full season with no injuries between them. That would imply staying out of prolonged scoring slumps. That would imply a lot of things going right.

Not all of those things are going to go right, but if they do all go right, I won't complain. But I won't complain because they didn't get 70 ponts, either. I would be happy if both combined for 115-120 points, not necessarily 140. It's just that I wouldn't see it as a "serious problem" or be "horribly disappointed" if they didn't both get 70. It's not that they're not capable of putting 70 points on the board in a season where we get the breaks, but that realistically I feel they probably won't.

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09-07-2003, 06:47 PM
  #19
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Reiteration from the lines thread...

Here is what I would start out with and see where they go. And there is a mention of Isbister and Torres being 3rd and 4th liners...remember we don't have lines 1-4, we have 3-2nd lines and a 3rd.

Ryan Smyth-Mike Comrie-Radek Dvorak

Two defensively responsible wingers that can put up good offensive numbers to offset the defensive deficiency of one of our most creative players. Comrie will change his game a bit(like he mentioned) and possibly give more of a playmaking center a chance. Each of the two top guys will score around 30 and Comrie will have his best offensive numbers yet....23-42-65. Smyth 32-40-71 and Dvo 29-28-57.

Brad Isbister-Mike York-Ales Hemsky

We all know that size does matter. Isbister will get line 2B ice time and be given every opportunity to shine there. He will bring the physical power forward aspect and show some promise to be what the Oilers are hoping he will be. There will be a few games of demotion to the 3A line but that is to be expected. When we look back at the upcoming season, it will be a success for Brad and this line. Hemsky will provide his playmaking wizardry and York and Isbister will show good hands and score. Isbister 17-19-36 York 23-29-52 Hemsky 11-37-48

Jason Chimera-Shawn Horcoff-Jarret Stoll

Good speed, good energy. Scoring punch. As much as I would like to put Horcoff in the top 6, I would rather go with York in that spot as a good two way guy, and add Isbister's size on the wing. This will be a solid line at both ends of the rink. Chimera 13-10-23 Horcoff 14-22-36 Stoll 8-12-20

Raffi Torres/Fernando Pisani- Marty Reasoner-George Laraque

Everyone has to have an energy line. This one will be good one. Bang crash ouch. Also going to be responsible in their own end and may along with line 2C get checking assignments. I feel it possible that Torres will only platoon with Pisani but that isn't a bad thing. Torres 43GP 6-8-14 Pisani with injuries etc 55GP 11-11-22 Reasoner 10-23-33 Laraques 9-11-20

Defense
Eric Brewer-Steve Staios

I always like to have an offensive guy with a defensive guy. Brewer will do the rushing with the puck and Staios will cover his back. They will get a lot of the tough assignments and be up to the challenge. Good at both ends, I like this matchup. Brewer 13-28-41 Staios 4-18-22

Jason Smith-Alexei Semenov

In training camp they looked good together and their styles complement each other. They will be the ying to the top pair's yang giving toughness and strength, and Semenov does have some offensive upside so he could be the guy they will count on to be the offensive guy on this pair. Smith 6-12-18 Semenov 5-11-16

Cory Cross-M-A Bergeron

Just keep the puck out of our net. Just keep the puck out of our net. Bergeron seems to be a decent skater so he will probably have to be the guy making up for Cross' foot speed deficiency. For this reason alone Ferguson doesn't make the top 6. Cross 3-10-13 Bergeron 8-15-23(PP time)

Press Box Torres/Pisani/Sarno Rita...don't know what will happen, maybe the Runners, Moreau....bah bye, can you say 3rd in 2004?

Tommy Salo, option year of contract....

Rebound year.

68 GP GAA 2.47 34-25-8 0.909 Save Percentage 7 Shutouts.

Ty Conklin

Rookie year, solid most of the time, but doesn't instill huge amount of confidence, hence the increase in Salo's GP.

16 GP, a couple of relief games...GAA 2.76 5-8-1 0.896 Save percentage 1 shutout.

Oilers record
39-30-9-4 OTL 91 points 8th in the West.

And just remember...it is all just a guess.

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09-07-2003, 07:13 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned
Alrite, maybe it's just me then. But IMO, for players to get to certain point totals, their linemates have to acquire certain point totals as well. Unless you are a Lemieux and can get points no matter who plays with you, there's a limit on how many points you can score. That limit is dependant upon a lot of things (ice time, talent, luck, etc.), but an important factor is linemates.

If both Smyth and Comrie get 70 points, then I think we are looking at more than just an offensive breakout season. That would imply Hemsky NOT going into a sophomore slump. That would imply Dvorak scoring consistently and developing chemistry. That would imply a better power play. That would imply a full season with no injuries between them. That would imply staying out of prolonged scoring slumps. That would imply a lot of things going right.

Not all of those things are going to go right, but if they do all go right, I won't complain. But I won't complain because they didn't get 70 ponts, either. I would be happy if both combined for 115-120 points, not necessarily 140. It's just that I wouldn't see it as a "serious problem" or be "horribly disappointed" if they didn't both get 70. It's not that they're not capable of putting 70 points on the board in a season where we get the breaks, but that realistically I feel they probably won't.
Good points.

But for me, based on the Comrie's point-per-game of .73 and .74 in the past two years & Smyth's .85, .82, and .92 of the past three years... I would hope that Comrie got 60 pts (.73 PPG) and Smyth got 70 pts (.85 PPG) if they each get 82 games in.

If Comrie got 50 (.61) and Smyth got 60 (.73), it would be a step back for both of them IMO.

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09-07-2003, 07:35 PM
  #21
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I'm gonna do this one line at a time, and deal with the flak as it comes my way:

Ryan Smyth (35-38-73)
Mike Comrie (33-37-70)
Ales Hemsky (20-36-56) CONSERVATIVE on my part. I think he could scare us this year and put up huge numbers.

88 goals for the top line.

Flame away.

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09-07-2003, 07:39 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrMackey
Good points.

But for me, based on the Comrie's point-per-game of .73 and .74 in the past two years & Smyth's .85, .82, and .92 of the past three years... I would hope that Comrie got 60 pts (.73 PPG) and Smyth got 70 pts (.85 PPG) if they each get 82 games in.

If Comrie got 50 (.61) and Smyth got 60 (.73), it would be a step back for both of them IMO.
Yeah, it would be a step back. But keep in mind that when we (or at least I) throw around phrases such as "50 points" or "60 points" I don't necessarily mean exactly 50 points. I'm thinking a 50-ish point season, which could be less but probably would be more. So when I say I would be happy with a 50 point season from Comrie and a 60 point season from Smyth, I mean point totals of around 55 and 65, respectively.

Anyways, good points as well. I'm just a little shocked that some posters think that anything less than a 70-70-55 season from our top line and a breakout season from almost every forward would be a disappointment. IMO, numbers like that would be great, but not realistic.

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Old
09-07-2003, 08:18 PM
  #23
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right, I'll give this an effort

numbers will be G-A-PTS

Left Wing

Ryan Smyth 32-39-71, Smyth comes out with an unbelivable season for the Oil, staying generally healthy and showing us why we signed him for the money.

Brad Isbister 20-22-42, Izzy shows he belongs with a strong showing this season, scoring 20 goals. Fans love his hard hitting play. Miss games because of a suspension and little injury.

Raffi Torres 9-13-22, Time the pressbox but plays a good number of games, taking over from Moreau on the "checking" line.

Jason Chimera 13-12-25, a little improvement in Chimmer, but gets time in pressbox to give Rita and Torres shots.

Ethan Moreau 3-4-7, Guides young ones along and traded very early in the season for picks or prospect defender. note, 20 games with oilers, not season.

Centre

Mike Comrie 21-32-53, Hold-out for about 10-15 games into the the season, comes and plays strong though.

Mike York 21-42-63, plays very well for the Oilers. Plays first line centre until Comrie is ready and fit. Left winger role when Smyth is injured.

Marty Reasoner 10-17-27, Proves last season was no fluke and plays very well on the 3rd line.

Shawn Horcoff 14-20-34, another solid season from Horcoff, starts season on the 2nd line while Comrie is holding out, takes the 4th line after.

Jarret Stoll 3-5-8, doesn't play to much about 20 games or so, plays with poise and looks very promising.

Right Wing

Radek Dvorak 30-28-58, Returns to his sniping form of 2001, takes over as the top right winger on the team.

Ales Hemsky 12-28-40, Slow start sets Hemsky back to the 2nd line, but finds chemistry with York and Isbister creates space for him.

Fernando Pisani 6-10-16, plays well on the 3rd line, however is sacrificed for some younger players, i.e. Rita.

Georges Laraque 11-9-20, Georgy has a pretty good season scoring 13 goals, solitifes his 4th line position, gets som PP time.

Jani Rita 12-18-30, MacT wants to put him in the lineup but no spots on the left side moves him to the right, plays on the 3rd line.

Defence

Eric Brewer 11-15-26, Rebound year for the Brewsky, lets the league know he is a number 1 (or very close to it)

Alexei Semenov 6-8-14, no 2nd year jinx on this guy. Gains confidence in rushing and shooting.

Steve Staios 6-15-21, Its Steve Staios, nuff said

Jason Smith 1-9-10, Gator hits and hits alot

Cory Cross 3-5-8, no suprising offensive output this year, plays well on the 3rd pairing

Mikko Luoma 7-3-10, hear he can QB the powerplay, joins later in the season after playin AHL and getting used to N. American hockey

M.A. Bergeron 3-5-8, starts very disapointing, sent to minors, and Fergy plays until Luoma is called up.

Scott Ferguson 0-6-6, plays Fergy hockey, hard working and very defensive.

Goaltenders

Tommy Salo 66-29-24-13, 2.45, 0.909....rebound year, keeps Oilers in many games

Ty Conklin 16-7-6-3, 2.75, 0.901...solid backup

goals for: 256, maybe a bit optimistic, but we have depth, any line can score.

goals against: 206, Salo with the Rebound

Record: 36-30-16-4-92, good for 7th in the west

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09-07-2003, 09:13 PM
  #24
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Line 1
Ryan Smyth 29-37-66. Barely misses being the team's only 30 goal scorer.
Mike Comrie 26-33-59. Comrie gets back on track and focuses a bit more on his defensive game. The summer work-outs have made him stronger as well.
Ales Hemsky 14-38-52. Leads the team in assists and high-light reel set-ups.

Line2
Mike York 24-29-53. Another typical Yorkie season.
Radek Dvorak 19-24-43. Isn't the godsend that some Oiler fans are predicting, but is effective nonetheless.
Brad Isbister 16-21-37. Starts off on the 4th line, but earns more ice-time throughout the year, leading to a great stretch just before the playoffs.


Line3
Marty Reasoner14-20-34. Slowly lets us forget about Marchant
Fernando Pisani 6-5-11. Effective as a defensive winger, but eventually gets passed by Rita.
Ethan Moreau 3-5-8. Traded for a 3rd & 5th early on.
Jason Chimera 16-15-31. His speed helps him pot a few.


Line4
Shawn Horcoff 14-23-37. Occasionally fills in on the top two lines.
Raffi Torres 7-8-15. He's known for waking up the play with his bodychecks.
Georges Laraque 11-12-23. With Torres on the same line, BG finds some consistency for a few stretches.
Jarret Stoll 4-7-11. Is called up on occasion to fill out when injuries hit.
Jani Rita 7-11-18. Eventually passe Pisani on the depth charts and takes his spot.

D
Eric Brewer 10-28-38. Takes another step forward, but no all-star birth for him.
Steve Staios 6-20-26. Another solid season without being too noticeable.
Alexei Semenov 6-12-18. A few more rockets from the point find their way in.
Jason Smith 2-13-15. Returns to the game that earned him the nickname 'Gator'.
MA Bergeron 2-9-11. Earns the #6 spot.
Cory Cross 3-8-11. Nothing flashy, but gets the job done
Scott Ferguson 1-5-6. #7 guy with press-box tickets.


G
Tommy Salo 67gp, 30W, .907SP, 2.51. Salo re-bounds with a solid season.
Ty Conklin 19gp, 10W, .905SP, 2.67. Has an up and down season, but eventually shows some promise late in the year.



GF: 240
GA: 227
8th place.

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09-08-2003, 01:11 AM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cloned
Let's think about this realistically. Good offensive clubs today score around 246 goals a year (3 goals a game). If Comrie and Smyth both get 70, AND you expect Hemsky to pull 55, AND York to pull 55, AND players like Dvorak, Chimera, Isbister, etc. to breakout, we're looking at an unbelievable offensive season for the Oilers.

Putting it in perspective:
Tanguay (on a line with Forsberg and Hejduk) got 67 points last year.
Morrison (on a line with Naslund and Bertuzzi) got 71 points last year.

So to expect both Smyth and Comrie to put up 70 is unreasonable, because they don't have the third player to put up the numbers. What I'm saying is you would need Hemsky and Dvorak (or some other RW combination) to get 70 points together WHILE only playing exclusively with Smyth and Comrie, and not with anyone else. Even if Hemsky gets 40, that means Dvorak would need 30 points while playing with those two. Unreasonable, in my mind. Smyth only got 70 points once in his career, and that was playing with Weight and Guerin/Carter. Weight got 90 points that season and Guerin/Carter pulled up 66. In regards to Comrie, he might get 60, but he won't get 70. There just isn't enough there.

In short, expecting ONE of Smyth or Comrie to get 70 is reasonable, but IMHO, it isn't realistic to expect BOTH to get 70.
I never claimed point totals for anyone besides Comrie and Smyth did I?

Well you kind of shot yourself in the foot with your comments. First you say that the Oilers would need someone to put up a similar amount of points in order for Comrie and Smyth to hit 70, but then you bring up Tanguay and Morrison, who got nowhere near the point totals that their linemates got....

Not sure what you are trying to prove here.

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