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6th Rounders Are the New 5th Rounders (2011-2012 Prospect Updates)

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08-30-2011, 01:58 PM
  #101
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Keep in mind that the Stars writer (Mike Farkas) does not use rankings the way most other teams' writers do. If I remember correctly, instead of predicting a player's maximum ceiling, he labels a player within a certain confidence interval of their likely ceiling. In other words, one of Mike's 7.5s is a lot more likely to become a second liner than any other team's 7.5. The actual theoretical ceilings of these players are unaccounted for, and are completely unpredictable to begin with so I'm not really sure why writers even bother trying to model it. It just causes prospects to get overrated.

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08-30-2011, 01:59 PM
  #102
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UnholyPrince View Post
Campbell's only a 7.5C as well. Not too worried, every team's leniency is different.
8.0C

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08-30-2011, 02:25 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by piqued View Post
The new additions' ratings are already out from what I can tell.

7.5C Oleksiak
7.0C Ritchie
7.0D Molin
6.5C Vance
7.0D Stransky

No rating for Jokipakka.
huh they seem to have put those up when i wasnt looking. Hopefully we get an article and the actual rankings soon. Also I wonder if theyve changed any of the previous ones yes. Klingberg still has a 6.5 C which I suspect will be moved up.

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08-30-2011, 02:31 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairylikebear View Post
Keep in mind that the Stars writer (Mike Farkas) does not use rankings the way most other teams' writers do. If I remember correctly, instead of predicting a player's maximum ceiling, he labels a player within a certain confidence interval of their likely ceiling. In other words, one of Mike's 7.5s is a lot more likely to become a second liner than any other team's 7.5. The actual theoretical ceilings of these players are unaccounted for, and are completely unpredictable to begin with so I'm not really sure why writers even bother trying to model it. It just causes prospects to get overrated.
Yeah his way of applying the ratings seems to make the most sense. It doesnt really match with the guidelines hf lists, but it makes way more sense. Oleksiaks theoretical ceiling is definitely higher than a #2 or 3 defenseman.

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08-31-2011, 09:35 AM
  #105
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Here is video from Day 1 of the Windsor Spitfires training camp: http://www.windsorspitfires.com/vide...2271847d3d1b80

Jack Campbell added 27 pounds in 3 months.

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08-31-2011, 10:53 AM
  #106
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Jack Campbell added 27 pounds in 3 months.
Kari Lehtonen diet?

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08-31-2011, 10:54 AM
  #107
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Here is video from Day 1 of the Windsor Spitfires training camp: http://www.windsorspitfires.com/vide...2271847d3d1b80

Jack Campbell added 27 pounds in 3 months.
Say what you will about Jack Campbell, everything I've read about the guy from scouts and in news articles and such suggests that he could basically will himself into the league.

Yeah he had a mostly terrible first year in juniors, but atleast he got plenty of game experiance. If the scouts are right about Campbell, we'll see a big improvement this time around.

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08-31-2011, 11:20 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by ginblossoms View Post
Kari Lehtonen diet?
Muscle not Big Mac.

He said he's in the best shape of his life: faster, stronger, quicker, more flexible.

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08-31-2011, 11:37 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Muscle not Big Mac.

He said he's in the best shape of his life: faster, stronger, quicker, more flexible.
I was a little concerned because that seems like alot of weight to gain in such a short period of time, but watching the video its clear hes in tremendous shape.

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08-31-2011, 11:44 AM
  #110
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Great body, maybe he can put Dustin Penner on the same level!? Personal trainer?

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Old
08-31-2011, 11:46 AM
  #111
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A gallon of milk and a pound of whey a day?

e: I can't imagine eating that.

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Old
08-31-2011, 12:23 PM
  #112
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man wtf, i need to go on the Jack Campbell diet! I need to get more muscles on my body.

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08-31-2011, 01:26 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by txomisc View Post
I was a little concerned because that seems like alot of weight to gain in such a short period of time, but watching the video its clear hes in tremendous shape.
That's too wordy. You could have just shortened this comment to, "I think Jack Cambell looks great without his shirt on."

#txomiscishotandbothered

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Old
08-31-2011, 01:35 PM
  #114
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
That's too wordy. You could have just shortened this comment to, "I think Jack Cambell looks great without his shirt on."

#txomiscishotandbothered
well hes certainly no oleksiak but he is pretty studly

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08-31-2011, 01:47 PM
  #115
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Quote:
Originally Posted by txomisc View Post
well hes certainly no oleksiak but he is pretty studly
Campbell has a prettier face.

OT: You ever watch Beyond Scared Straight? One of the convicts told a kid he was going to auction him off, and that Daddy had a sweet tooth tonight. This conversation seems to be going in that direction ...

PSA to young HF posters .... don't do bad thing:


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08-31-2011, 01:54 PM
  #116
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Originally Posted by Frozen Failure View Post
A gallon of milk and a pound of whey a day?
There's no way the gain would be all muscle if he was doing that.

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Old
08-31-2011, 01:55 PM
  #117
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigG44 View Post
Campbell has a prettier face.

OT: You ever watch Beyond Scared Straight? One of the convicts told a kid he was going to auction him off, and that Daddy had a sweet tooth tonight. This conversation seems to be going in that direction ...

PSA to young HF posters .... don't do bad thing:
Campbells going to be doing proactiv commercials any minute now

Beyond scared straight? Is it like an extreme version of scared straight where they inmates can actually beat the crap out of the kids? because id tivo the hell out of that

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08-31-2011, 10:33 PM
  #118
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This guy seems to think Sarnia's Top 6 could be the best in the OHL's Western Conference.

The plan at this point is for Brett Ritchie to play RW with Taylor Carnevale (C) and Ludvig Rensfeldt (LW). The other top line is Alex Galchenyuk (C), Nail Yakupov (RW), and Reid Boucher (LW).


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08-31-2011, 10:42 PM
  #119
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Well Ritchie sure as hell isn't going to usurp Yakupov's spot on the RW, but of the names I know that seems like a really impressive top 6.

Also, the only good thing to come out of twitter is those hash tag jokes.

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Old
09-02-2011, 05:07 PM
  #120
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hairylikebear View Post
Keep in mind that the Stars writer (Mike Farkas) does not use rankings the way most other teams' writers do. If I remember correctly, instead of predicting a player's maximum ceiling, he labels a player within a certain confidence interval of their likely ceiling. In other words, one of Mike's 7.5s is a lot more likely to become a second liner than any other team's 7.5. The actual theoretical ceilings of these players are unaccounted for, and are completely unpredictable to begin with so I'm not really sure why writers even bother trying to model it. It just causes prospects to get overrated.
Yes, this is correct. And thank you for the accurate representation. With differences in opinion, coupled with constant staff turnover, there are consistency issues that we've been (and it's something I have attempted to spearhead in the past even) acting together to try to iron out the wrinkles so to speak. Which, as you may all understand, is easier said than done.

I've taken the approach of "likely potential" instead of the perhaps more traditional "highest ceiling" - technically, I think I'm doing it wrong, but I still stand by it. Perttu Lindgren could technically have been an 8.0D for the last 3 years, 7.5D whatever...I tried to keep him out of the way of the big time prospects because it was so unlikely that he'd be a dominant...or even regular...NHLer. Even though, technically, his ceiling could probably be way up there (he did lead one of the best league's in the world in points this year, FWIW).

I think I may have mentioned that it normally takes me a second top-20 to "normalize" everything and get new players in the "right" place. I also get more time to familiarize myself with the prospects.

Re: Oleksiak. Fine player, he has big upside, but I don't think he's going to be an "elite" player in this league which is what a "9" represents. Or 8.5 suggesting that he becomes a fringe elite player or whatever. I'll re-evaluate him in the OHL and follow his progress, but I'm not sure he's going to get too much more in terms of number change. But I'm not stubborn and will make adjustments that I see as necessary without any qualms.

I have very limited viewing of Emil Molin and it's been my practice in the past to not just throw names into the top-20 right after being a late pick unless I'm familiar with them and confident in their abilities. I've only seen short clips of him. I gave him longshot "second line" upside because of the clips I saw and what others that are more familiar with him have suggested to me, but I'm not a stats guy really, I like to use the eye test for everything.

FTR, as honorable mentions have been wiped from articles...

Honorable mentions:
Perttu Lindgren – 7.0F – led the SM-Liiga in scoring but his game is unlikely to test well in North America, he might be equally unwilling to try it again.

Alex Theriau – 6.0C – heady WHL defenseman that plays a passive, positional defensive game. Is a work in progress but plays pretty mistake-free hockey.

Mike Bergin – 6.5D – Big two-way defenseman that has progressed well at the collegiate level. Hopes to have shaken off injury troubles to emerge as a premier ECAC defenseman. Will be looked to for big minutes and big leadership in his junior season.

Scott Winkler – 6.5D – Colorado College forward that has struggled with inconsistency and injury in his young career. He’s poised to break out, but has had a hard time stringing together good games with opportunity.

Emin Molin – 7.0D – Quick, talented forward with good acceleration. Has the skills necessary to move his way up the Swedish hockey ladder – was dominate at the J18 levels last season.

Lastly, I believe histories and scouting reports should be filled out in whole (well, for last year at least) now...

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Old
09-02-2011, 07:22 PM
  #121
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
Yes, this is correct. And thank you for the accurate representation. With differences in opinion, coupled with constant staff turnover, there are consistency issues that we've been (and it's something I have attempted to spearhead in the past even) acting together to try to iron out the wrinkles so to speak. Which, as you may all understand, is easier said than done.

I've taken the approach of "likely potential" instead of the perhaps more traditional "highest ceiling" - technically, I think I'm doing it wrong, but I still stand by it. Perttu Lindgren could technically have been an 8.0D for the last 3 years, 7.5D whatever...I tried to keep him out of the way of the big time prospects because it was so unlikely that he'd be a dominant...or even regular...NHLer. Even though, technically, his ceiling could probably be way up there (he did lead one of the best league's in the world in points this year, FWIW).

I think I may have mentioned that it normally takes me a second top-20 to "normalize" everything and get new players in the "right" place. I also get more time to familiarize myself with the prospects.

Re: Oleksiak. Fine player, he has big upside, but I don't think he's going to be an "elite" player in this league which is what a "9" represents. Or 8.5 suggesting that he becomes a fringe elite player or whatever. I'll re-evaluate him in the OHL and follow his progress, but I'm not sure he's going to get too much more in terms of number change. But I'm not stubborn and will make adjustments that I see as necessary without any qualms.

I have very limited viewing of Emil Molin and it's been my practice in the past to not just throw names into the top-20 right after being a late pick unless I'm familiar with them and confident in their abilities. I've only seen short clips of him. I gave him longshot "second line" upside because of the clips I saw and what others that are more familiar with him have suggested to me, but I'm not a stats guy really, I like to use the eye test for everything.

FTR, as honorable mentions have been wiped from articles...

Honorable mentions:
Perttu Lindgren – 7.0F – led the SM-Liiga in scoring but his game is unlikely to test well in North America, he might be equally unwilling to try it again.

Alex Theriau – 6.0C – heady WHL defenseman that plays a passive, positional defensive game. Is a work in progress but plays pretty mistake-free hockey.

Mike Bergin – 6.5D – Big two-way defenseman that has progressed well at the collegiate level. Hopes to have shaken off injury troubles to emerge as a premier ECAC defenseman. Will be looked to for big minutes and big leadership in his junior season.

Scott Winkler – 6.5D – Colorado College forward that has struggled with inconsistency and injury in his young career. He’s poised to break out, but has had a hard time stringing together good games with opportunity.

Emin Molin – 7.0D – Quick, talented forward with good acceleration. Has the skills necessary to move his way up the Swedish hockey ladder – was dominate at the J18 levels last season.

Lastly, I believe histories and scouting reports should be filled out in whole (well, for last year at least) now...
Whats your take on Klingberg? I was kind of expecting him to get bumped up half a point, was that considered at all? Using Larsen as a comparable I think 7C or 7.5D might have made sense for Klingberg.

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09-03-2011, 12:42 AM
  #122
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Interesting that Besko gets a D ranking, is that because he's 2 years younger and still could go either way. Or just not enough face time to watch him?

Klingberg seems low to me too, though I'm guessing the projection is he could end up just a 6th PP dman or a #4, but not much higher.

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09-03-2011, 05:21 PM
  #123
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I do like Klingberg and I think he's developing rapidly, which is great. But I try to avoid getting swept up in the hoopla of hype (see: Brunnstrom). Klingberg is a good player, but I'm not sure he has a ceiling that would denote a 7.5D rating (suggesting he's got a shot to be a 2/3 defenseman...which I would strongly disagree with). You'll get a good inclination of what Klingberg is made of in the SM-Liiga. Even in a more offensively creative league like the Elitserien, Klingberg was not a top-6 d-man I don't believe. Granted, he's a young rookie but Nemeth got minutes and plays a more mature, refined game. He's got a good offensive ceiling, but he's still a little ways off on nearly everything else. And my goodness is he knocked around easily. Is 7.0D out of the realm? I'd say no, not at all, that's not unreasonable. I'm just not sure yet that I see such a big ceiling for him. I think he's probably a third pairing guy - maybe a #4 on a bad team - if he makes it.

Tyler Beskorowany had an up and down junior career. He came into the ECHL and played well, came into the AHL in spot duty and seemed to do just fine. A 7.0C makes more sense to be honest, but in the rough draft not all the grades and rankings looked the same as the final product and at the time if I made Beskorowany a 7.0C he would have been bumped up several spots...(HF tries to avoid situations where a 6.5C is above a 7.0C, etc.) I didn't want him several spots higher. After revisions were made, I never really addressed the fact that I could have bumped him to a C and been more or less fine.

Honestly, more of an oversight on my part than anything else.

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Old
09-03-2011, 09:39 PM
  #124
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I think Klingberg has just as much of a ceiling as Larsen, if not more. Klingberg's already done more at a younger age than Larsen did, plays the game in much of the same way, and will likely end up being bigger. I don't know what the Brunnstrom thing is supposed to mean or how it's at all similar.

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Old
09-03-2011, 10:26 PM
  #125
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Yeah ... Brunnstrom was a 23-24 year old late-bloomer. Klingberg is just turning 19 years old. I didn't get that reference either.

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