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Convince me the Wings had a good draft?

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Old
06-28-2011, 11:00 AM
  #1
Octopus
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Convince me the Wings had a good draft?

I'm miffed that the Wings dropped down and didn't take Scott Mayfield. They did take Ryan Sproul which I predicted in an earlier post. I'm not thrilled about the lack of grit on this team and the prospetcs coming up. Mind you they got some sizeable players this time around. What do you think?

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06-28-2011, 11:05 AM
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Actually the more I'm reading about it, the more I think we had a surprisingly solid draft.

One guy on this site compiled a list a few months back, looks pretty professional, and quite a few of our picks were on his list.

http://thehockeywriters.com/2011-nhl...-marchmadness/

Jurco: 34 (35th)
Ouellet: 44 (48th)
Houdon: 58 (145th)
Sproul: 61 (55th)
Quine: 97 (85th)

And then his final season rankings (just a top 30) saw:

Jurco: 23
Sproul: 28

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06-28-2011, 11:48 AM
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pokerandpucks
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We won't know for a few years yet. Based on projections they should have 3 or 4 NHL players out of this group, but they could get none, or they could get 7 or 8.

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06-28-2011, 12:15 PM
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When you draft, you should be drafting skill and hoping to develop it to the point where you are getting players who will "outperform" their draft position. Drafting "grit" for its own sake is usually a great way to ensure you spend years of development time on a player equivalent to someone you could get as a UFA or off the waiver wire right now.

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06-28-2011, 12:25 PM
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All in all, I think all the picks have readily apparent upside and potential. We address some needs, namely size and depth on defense(prospects). That is why I believe we had a very good draft. If just one of these guys reaches potential in the NHL, its a successful draft. 2 or 3, a great draft. I especially like the defensive prospects we added.

Jurco: Undeniable offensive talent, big frame. If he puts in the work he can be an effective top 6 winger. Consistency, defense, and the soft label are all things that can be ironed out in his development.

Ouellett: Put up good numbers and is considered one of the better D prospects from the Q. Nothing about him really excites you, but sometimes that is a good thing regarding defenseman. I like him more than Percy who went at the end of the 1st round.

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Ouellet is a steady defender who makes good decisions with the puck and is very composed in his own end. He doesn’t force plays and does a good job of utilizing outlets instead of just hammering it off the glass. Is a good fit towards the end of the second round and will be a solid pick-up for any team looking to add some depth to their prospect pool on the backend.
Sproul: I was really hoping for Sproul with this pick all along, he seems like a first round prospect when you consider his size and shot. He showed up late on the scene and was maybe the biggest riser in the draft.
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Signing with the Greyhounds proved to the be the catalyst that Ryan Sproul needed to get his name on the map this year. The hulking defenseman had some struggles working his way up the depth chart in the early going, but by the midway point of the season, Sproul was finding himself as one of the most reliable defensemen on the team. He has a big-time shot that he is not afraid to use and can be a huge asset at the top of the umbrella or a player you run an overload through. He is still showing a bit of growing pains on the defensive side of the game and will need to continue to improve his positioning and understand how to utilize his size, but Sproul is a pretty intriguing player with a high ceiling.
Alan Quine: Former 2nd overall OHL selection, traded for Ryan Spooner who is a comparable player. Best assets are his speed and offensive ability. Scored a point per game at the under 18's for team Canada. Needs to work on defense and consistency by most accounts. Expect a tremendous season ahead with the Pete's.

Marek Tvrdon: Played only 12 games in the WHL, but scored 6 goals. Big guy already, 6'2" 212. Big and strong with a nose for the net, if he played a full season he may have been a first rounder.

Phillipe Hudon: I had seen him ranked as high as 76th, he fell because his offense was in question. But, he has decent size and is considered a 'hard nose' player. Has lots of time to develop and has potential to be an effective bottom 6 grinder.

Matthias Backman: Hard not to get excited about a Swedish defenseman, especially one that is 6'2"(and not 5'9"). It is probably a good idea not to allow expectations to get out of hand and be patient.
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He is an excellent two-way defender, with good vision and mobility. He makes simple, easy plays, rather than risky, dangerous plays. He is consistent, without some of the peaks and valleys you see out of young players, especially at the defense position.
Richard Nedomlel: Big. Mean. Stay at home defenseman. Ya, we could use one of those.
Alexei Marchenko: Calculated risk? This guy is supposedly one of the best defenseman of his age in Russia. Like Sproul, he has good size and can play a physical game. Also, right hand shot.

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06-28-2011, 12:44 PM
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You know I'm not Mr. Optimistic, but here's my take:

Jurco is a big, fast winger with sick hands. I love that pick on potential alone, and I won't fault the brass a bit if Jurco belly-flops. He has some "consistency" issues, but from what I've heard, there's nothing that jumps out as a red flag (DUIs, issues with coaches, quitting and running away, etc). It's just a buzz he has in the scouting reports, and normally guys with his skill set end up going in the top 15.

Not sure about Ouellet. Scouting reports say his skating is iffy, RWC's article quotes the Wings brass as saying he's a really good skater. Not sure who to believe.

Also not sure about Sproul, as they also have concerns about his skating. He's grown a lot in the last year though and needs to put on leg strength to catch up. When he does his skating could be average or better, and he's a big dude with a cannon shot. I'm good with this pick - like the Jurco pick, you can't find sure-thing guys that size when the Wings pick, but I like that they are rolling the dice on some of these bigger dudes and not just picking the "great hockey sense, 5'9", can't skate" players.

Not sure about Quine. He apparently has great wheels and they think he could develop into a slightly slower, slightly more skilled Helm. I'm ok with the pick.

Really like the Tvrdon pick. The more I read about this guy, the more I wonder why nobody picked him earlier. Another big fast winger with really good hands, he was scoring pretty well before the shoulder injury, and shoulder injuries aren't generally career-threatening so he should be a solid bet to resume his progression in the fall. It's not like he had a knee, head, back, or wrist injury, or some kind of Fischer-esque heart problem - those are the big ones that can derail careers. No off-ice issues that I've read about. Love this pick.

Not sure about Hudon, but apparently he was a top Q prospect before he decided to go to Cornell. The Wings haven't had any luck at all with late-round college dudes and their overall NCAA luck is pretty bad too, with just Abdelkader, Howard, and Nyquist looking like good picks in recent years. Maybe Jensen joins them soon on that list. Anywho, I don't really know anything about him so I can't get too excited or too down on him.

Backman is either Nick Lidstrom Part II or Nick Backstrom Part II. These Swedish defensemen who "seem to do a little bit of everything but don't do anything that stands out" are usually just not very good. You never know though. Good size, seemingly good speed and skill. I don't have a problem with the pick.

Nedomlel probably doesn't have much chance in the Wings' system, but I'm not opposed to taking a 6th round flier on a big, nasty SOB defenseman and seeing if he pans out to be a stay at home bruiser that can play in the NHL.

Marchenko is another guy I don't know much about but he seems like he's a big-but-soft defenseman who shoots righty and is ok at everything. One of the last picks in the draft - what the hell, why not? I don't have a problem here either.

Basically, I think I like the strategy the Wings took with this draft - target mostly bigger players who slip for reasons that shouldn't be deal-breakers, and then hope some of them pan out to give them some a bigger team down the road to compete with the Sharks and the Bruins of the world. We have no idea if anyone they picked (or didn't pick) will pan out, so if we're going on strategy, I like what they did. Some of the guys need to work on their skating, which doesn't sound promising for guys that want to make the Wings' roster, but recent seasons have shown that in addition to the speedy skilled guys, you need some gritty dudes that have at least average skating and can bring some size, some skill, and some physicality. They got some skilled guys and some grit guys.

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06-28-2011, 01:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Basically, I think I like the strategy the Wings took with this draft - target mostly bigger players who slip for reasons that shouldn't be deal-breakers, and then hope some of them pan out to give them some a bigger team down the road to compete with the Sharks and the Bruins of the world. We have no idea if anyone they picked (or didn't pick) will pan out, so if we're going on strategy, I like what they did. Some of the guys need to work on their skating, which doesn't sound promising for guys that want to make the Wings' roster, but recent seasons have shown that in addition to the speedy skilled guys, you need some gritty dudes that have at least average skating and can bring some size, some skill, and some physicality. They got some skilled guys and some grit guys.
Very good summary.

And come to think of it, we have quite a few guys who aren't great skaters; Holmstrom, Franzen, Cleary, Hudler, even Abdelkader, so maybe taking great skaters isn't the be all and end all.

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06-28-2011, 01:22 PM
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When you are a team that never drafts early, the best way to approach the draft is to go for quantity and target guys with upside because past the top 15 (and perhaps 5), drafts are as much guesswork as anything solid.

When you are a team that spends a lot of money, you don't need to target guys who are most likely to play in the NHL, you target guys who are most likely to be really good in the NHL since you can pay for all sorts of career journeymen to fill out the bottoms of rosters.

When you are a team like Detroit that never drafts early and spends a lot of money, then combine the application of those two statements.

As long as Detroit can average around 1 solid NHLer a year out of their draft classes they'll be fine. If they hit a hot year and land a game-changer or two they will be set up for a decade.

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06-28-2011, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
You know I'm not Mr. Optimistic, but here's my take:

Jurco is a big, fast winger with sick hands. I love that pick on potential alone, and I won't fault the brass a bit if Jurco belly-flops. He has some "consistency" issues, but from what I've heard, there's nothing that jumps out as a red flag (DUIs, issues with coaches, quitting and running away, etc). It's just a buzz he has in the scouting reports, and normally guys with his skill set end up going in the top 15.
Not sure how his tricks with the puck and stick will translate to the ice but this is an entertaining video of Jurco showing his sick hands.


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06-28-2011, 01:51 PM
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Originally Posted by wingnutjeff View Post
Not sure how his tricks with the puck and stick will translate to the ice but this is an entertaining video of Jurco showing his sick hands.

Thanks for posting. I hope he'll move on from nice but pointless tricks like those and learn some real Jedi mind trick puck handling on the ice like Pavel Datsyuk does. Those types of moves are actually practical when it comes to playing hockey.


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06-28-2011, 01:54 PM
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Originally Posted by fabricoh View Post
Thanks for posting. I hope he'll move on from nice but pointless tricks like those and learn some real Jedi mind trick puck handling on the ice like Pavel Datsyuk does. Those types of moves are actually practical when it comes to playing hockey.
Wow!

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06-28-2011, 01:58 PM
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
Basically, I think I like the strategy the Wings took with this draft - target mostly bigger players who slip for reasons that shouldn't be deal-breakers, and then hope some of them pan out to give them some a bigger team down the road to compete with the Sharks and the Bruins of the world. We have no idea if anyone they picked (or didn't pick) will pan out, so if we're going on strategy, I like what they did. Some of the guys need to work on their skating, which doesn't sound promising for guys that want to make the Wings' roster, but recent seasons have shown that in addition to the speedy skilled guys, you need some gritty dudes that have at least average skating and can bring some size, some skill, and some physicality. They got some skilled guys and some grit guys.
Yeah I would agree the Sharks series the past two playoffs showed how much our undersized d-men struggled against their big forwards. Detroit took Sheahan with their top pick and he's a potential (emphasis on potential) power forward and it sounds like the Wings wanted Biggs with their top pick and he is a similar power forward type. In addition to that getting some bigger d-men should help out in the future. Smith has decent size so he'll be able to help out as early as this upcoming season.

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06-28-2011, 02:06 PM
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We won't know for a couple years at the earliest but it does look like they grabbed some intriguing prospects.

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06-28-2011, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Epsilon View Post
When you draft, you should be drafting skill and hoping to develop it to the point where you are getting players who will "outperform" their draft position. Drafting "grit" for its own sake is usually a great way to ensure you spend years of development time on a player equivalent to someone you could get as a UFA or off the waiver wire right now.
No offense, but this is garbage.

You can draft grit and get skill of the UFA or waiver wire.

Or you can draft both.

Anytime anyone expresses doubt in something the Wings did or didn't do, the same people come in here and write off their doubts as trivial.


I'll say this. I am often unhappy with a draft when it is complete. It's kind of natural. You have a list of people you want. And the chances the Wings get those people are slim. So you see the team pass up your guys in favor of nobodies and think, "WTF."
I've done it several times.

It's been a long, long time since I really had a good handle on an incoming draft class (2005). And I was livid that year when we drafted guys like Abdelkader, Lofberg, Ritola, Ryno and Helm in places I really didn't like. (I was wrong about Helm, but not the other guys, LOL).

But then RWC comes out with all these quotes from Hakan Andresson about Lofberg being a five-star skater with great skill and size, and Ryno being a beast with skill, and i was like, OK, sweet.

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06-28-2011, 02:34 PM
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Sure, you can draft grit instead of skill. It'd be pretty stupid to do so, since it will cost a helluva lot more to get skill off the open market than grit, but I guess you can do it.

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06-28-2011, 03:08 PM
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Sure, you can draft grit instead of skill. It'd be pretty stupid to do so, since it will cost a helluva lot more to get skill off the open market than grit, but I guess you can do it.
It's stupid to draft nothing but grit, and it's stupid to draft gritty guys early if they're not also skilled.

The Wings drafted some highly skilled guys, or guys they perceive to be highly skilled - Jurco, Ouellet, Tverdon, Quine, Backman. And they drafted some gritty guys, or guys they perceive to be gritty - Hudon, Nedomlel, Sproul. For the most part, the skilled guys were drafted early and they went with gritty guys late when most of the skilled guys were gone. I'd rather see them draft more Nick Oslunds than Jesper Samuelssons with those 6th and 7th round picks. As scouting improves, it gets less and less likely that they'll be able to get another Zetterberg or Datsyuk in those very-late rounds.

And aside from Nedomlel, you can make some kind of argument that even the gritty guys they drafted have some skill to work with and some potential in that department - Sproul has a huge shot and scores a bunch of goals, Hudon was a top Q prospect, etc. Nedomlel isn't anywhere near the Wings' model for skills, so that one is a bit strange. But I still don't have a problem with it. It's the 6th round - they're basically throwing darts.

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06-28-2011, 03:52 PM
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I'm miffed that the Wings dropped down and didn't take Scott Mayfield. They did take Ryan Sproul which I predicted in an earlier post. I'm not thrilled about the lack of grit on this team and the prospetcs coming up. Mind you they got some sizeable players this time around. What do you think?
Outside of baseball, the NHL draft is a crapshoot.

Convince me that Detroit had a bad draft?

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06-28-2011, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
It's stupid to draft nothing but grit, and it's stupid to draft gritty guys early if they're not also skilled.
Right.

The Wings draft skill though. That's their M.O., and for good reason. They don't draft only skill, they don't always draft the available player with the most skill, but skill is their underlying philosophy.

They drafted skill in Jurco, Ouellet, Sproul, Tvrdon, Backman, and Marchenko.

They drafted grit in Hudon and Nedomlel.

Quine seems like a kid without an identity right now.

So that's about a 3:1 ratio, which seems to be about the average for the Wings over the past dozen years or so.

Regardless, my main point is that skill is more expensive than grit. So when you are a team that is based more on skill and puck possession and you have an opportunity to grab skill or grit for cheap (like, say, in a draft), it's wise to go for skill. Which, essentially, goes back to Epsilon's main point. Bob's seeming insinuation that both philosophies (drafting skill vs drafting grit) are created equal just isn't true. And especially when you are an organization that puts more stock in skill than most teams.

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06-28-2011, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sarcastro View Post
It's stupid to draft nothing but grit, and it's stupid to draft gritty guys early if they're not also skilled.

The Wings drafted some highly skilled guys, or guys they perceive to be highly skilled - Jurco, Ouellet, Tverdon, Quine, Backman. And they drafted some gritty guys, or guys they perceive to be gritty - Hudon, Nedomlel, Sproul. For the most part, the skilled guys were drafted early and they went with gritty guys late when most of the skilled guys were gone. I'd rather see them draft more Nick Oslunds than Jesper Samuelssons with those 6th and 7th round picks. As scouting improves, it gets less and less likely that they'll be able to get another Zetterberg or Datsyuk in those very-late rounds.

And aside from Nedomlel, you can make some kind of argument that even the gritty guys they drafted have some skill to work with and some potential in that department - Sproul has a huge shot and scores a bunch of goals, Hudon was a top Q prospect, etc. Nedomlel isn't anywhere near the Wings' model for skills, so that one is a bit strange. But I still don't have a problem with it. It's the 6th round - they're basically throwing darts.
Nedomlel scored 1/2 his points in the last month of the season after he was moved to the PP. For a player like him, I think that pushed the brass to look at taking a gamble on the kid.

Plus, I like the fact that(at least it seems) that they are taking shots at guys with skill and grit, rather than just skill. Hudon is a perfect example.

Also, many believe they wanted Biggs. Talent and grit.

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06-28-2011, 06:20 PM
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No offense, but this is garbage.

You can draft grit and get skill of the UFA or waiver wire.

Or you can draft both.
And that's garbage, because it ignores how much harder it is and how much more expensive it is to get that kind of skill in the UFA market.

Grit players are literally a dime a dozen, especially at forward. Drake, Miller, Eaves, Maltby, Draper, etc etc etc... There are loads of that kind of player all over the place just waiting to get signed. There are most decidedly NOT loads of highly skilled forwards lying around waiting to be signed.

That's why a team that wants those kinds of players has to try pretty hard and pretty consistently to draft them. If a team wants to add grit, grit's always there in the UFA market.

Quote:
Anytime anyone expresses doubt in something the Wings did or didn't do, the same people come in here and write off their doubts as trivial.
And anytime someone expresses confidence in something the Wings did or didn't do, the same people come in here and write off their confidence as homerism.

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06-28-2011, 07:19 PM
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For the most part, I stopped caring seriously about fan evaluations of drafts after Johan Franzen emerged as an impact player. I remember the year he was drafted, so many people on HF were calling the Wings losers for making him their first pick when "1st round talent" Wes O'Neill was still on the board.

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06-28-2011, 07:30 PM
  #22
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JURCO KICKS ASS

Convinced?

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06-28-2011, 07:40 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by HockeyinHD View Post
And that's garbage, because it ignores how much harder it is and how much more expensive it is to get that kind of skill in the UFA market.

Grit players are literally a dime a dozen, especially at forward. Drake, Miller, Eaves, Maltby, Draper, etc etc etc... There are loads of that kind of player all over the place just waiting to get signed. There are most decidedly NOT loads of highly skilled forwards lying around waiting to be signed.

That's why a team that wants those kinds of players has to try pretty hard and pretty consistently to draft them. If a team wants to add grit, grit's always there in the UFA market.



And anytime someone expresses confidence in something the Wings did or didn't do, the same people come in here and write off their confidence as homerism.
Oh please. Who are the skilled guys we have on this team?
Datsyuk.
Zetterberg
Lidstrom
Franzen
Filppula
Kronwall

How many of those guys were drafted high? Kronwall. Flip, I guess.
There are tons of skilled guys available in UFA, on waivers, via trade

There's nothing wrong with wanting a team to draft more toughness or grit, or whatever.

Personally, I don't have a problem with this draft. That said, I don't know a ton about it, so I'd be speaking out of turn if I did.

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06-28-2011, 09:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Captain Bob View Post
Oh please. Who are the skilled guys we have on this team?
Datsyuk.
Zetterberg
Lidstrom
Franzen
Filppula
Kronwall

How many of those guys were drafted high? Kronwall. Flip, I guess.
There are tons of skilled guys available in UFA, on waivers, via trade


So let me see if I have this straight. Are you actually attempting to say that it's no harder to acquire skill in the UFA market than it is to acquire grit?

And as evidence supporting this you're going to cite two of the biggest draft surprises ever, the best defenseman of the modern era, and two forwards you don't even like?

Also, how many skill guys are on this team who weren't drafted by the Wings? Now, how many grit guys are on the Wings which they didn't draft? See?

Quote:
There's nothing wrong with wanting a team to draft more toughness or grit, or whatever.
There's nothing 'wrong' with it, no, it's just a stupid strategy. Trying to draft the next Drew Miller when there are 5-8 Drew Miller's a year who can be had for 750k is a stupid strategy.

It's like using a draft pick on a goalie because one thinks he might be a good NHL backup someday.

That's d u m 'dum'. If you're drafting a goalie, you're drafting him because you have some degree of expectation he can start for you, someday.

Sure, teams from time to time go after a gritty player they think might be an exceptional player in that style, but that's not something smart teams do too much.

I mean, if I ever hear someone describe a draft pick as 'somebody who we picked because we thought he'd be a 4th liner for us someday', that right there is a wasted pick.

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06-28-2011, 09:23 PM
  #25
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Jurco is NHL ready to sit on the bench in case a shootout occurs.

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