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How Much Has Mac's Price Gone Up?

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Old
07-01-2011, 08:24 PM
  #76
dimi78
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rockinz View Post
THIS

look for mac to be a 3 over 3 guy
He could only get a 1 year contract from the arb. if I'm not mistaken.

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Old
07-01-2011, 08:47 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by Th4thurt View Post
Also if it's too much, Burke will walk away.
And if Burke does, he will be a UFA.

Great asset management.

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07-01-2011, 08:58 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
(1) Don't think you can offer sheet a player who's headed to arbitration.

(2) Also, didn't Toronto qualifiy him? Don't think you can offer sheet a qulified player either.
The good old two-headed monster:

(1) You know what you're talking about.

(2) You don't know what you're talking about and have lost all the credibility you had gained with (1).

If you don't qualify a player who's not a UFA, he becomes a UFA.

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07-01-2011, 09:11 PM
  #79
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UFAs and RFAs are simply not the same. I feel Mac signs with us for a reasonable price, around $3.5-3.8 per year.

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07-01-2011, 09:23 PM
  #80
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We should have given him that 3 year $3M per contract he was rumoured to want .

Seriously though I really hope they get Mac under contract soon. If he goes to arbitration and the Leafs just walk I'll be pissed.


Although not as pissed as if we lose Schenn.

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Old
07-01-2011, 09:46 PM
  #81
Duke Silver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Nobody would know the difference anyway. There are enough non-UFA comparables to MacArthur who are making between 4 and 6 million bucks.
2010 RFA Arbitration-Elects:

Matt Moulson (82GP, 30G-18A-48P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.45M per
Mason Raymond (82GP, 25G-28A-53P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.55M per
Tomas Fleishmann (69GP, 23G-28A-51P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.8M per

Even if this goes to arbitration, I can see Clarke MacArthur getting between $2.8-$3.2M per. Not $4M-6M, that's laughable.


Last edited by Duke Silver: 07-01-2011 at 09:53 PM.
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Old
07-01-2011, 09:46 PM
  #82
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UFA contracts cannot be used as comparables in arbitration.

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Old
07-01-2011, 10:06 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
2010 RFA Arbitration-Elects:

Matt Moulson (82GP, 30G-18A-48P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.45M per
Mason Raymond (82GP, 25G-28A-53P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.55M per
Tomas Fleishmann (69GP, 23G-28A-51P) - Signed before arbitration for $2.8M per
He scored 62 points, which is substantially more than all of those players.

Quote:
Even if this goes to arbitration, I can see Clarke MacArthur getting between $2.8-$3.2M per. Not $4M-6M, that's laughable.
If this team was even close to being a contender, I wouldn't pay him a dime over 2.0. Unfortunately, this team sucks, and it looks like it will continue to suck, so I'd overpay him just for the chance to unload him for picks/prospects at the deadline.

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Old
07-01-2011, 10:11 PM
  #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ponder View Post
UFAs and RFAs are simply not the same. I feel Mac signs with us for a reasonable price, around $3.5-3.8 per year.
yeah but that's not reasonable at all

why should he make more than Kulemin?

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07-01-2011, 10:14 PM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
He scored 62 points, which is substantially more than all of those players.
Fleischmann, the closest comparable, was on pace for 61 points in an 82-game season. How is this not a realistic comparison?

As for Moulson and Raymond, that's why my predicted outcome for MacA's arbitration hearing was "substantially more" than what they received for lesser point totals. What isn't there to get?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
If this team was even close to being a contender, I wouldn't pay him a dime over 2.0. Unfortunately, this team sucks, and it looks like it will continue to suck, so I'd overpay him just for the chance to unload him for picks/prospects at the deadline.
You wouldn't pay a 60-point player more than $2M? But you just finished saying MacArthur was more productive than all those players, who received more than $2M. Your reasoning makes no sense.

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07-01-2011, 10:33 PM
  #86
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[QUOTE=Dreakmur;34506173]He scored 62 points, which is substantially more than all of those players.

Goals are worth more then point totals, and Fleischman is a perfect comparison.

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Old
07-01-2011, 10:50 PM
  #87
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I think we would all agree that TJ Oshie is a better player, with greater potential than Mac. He just signed for 2.25 mil. Is this not a comparable? Maybe a little more for Mac at this time, but it would be foolish to walk away from the ruling with nothing.

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Old
07-01-2011, 10:53 PM
  #88
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Quote:
Originally Posted by baton elevated View Post
I think we would all agree that TJ Oshie is a better player, with greater potential than Mac. He just signed for 2.25 mil. Is this not a comparable? Maybe a little more for Mac at this time, but it would be foolish to walk away from the ruling with nothing.
Until Oshie proves otherwise, he's just another young player with potential who hasn't proved anything.

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Old
07-01-2011, 10:56 PM
  #89
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I'm aware that there were special circumstances, but if an arbitrator gave him $2.4M last year based on a 35 points season, how much will he get this year, after a 62 points season.

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Old
07-01-2011, 11:19 PM
  #90
Duke Silver
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Originally Posted by beauchamp View Post
I'm aware that there were special circumstances, but if an arbitrator gave him $2.4M last year based on a 35 points season, how much will he get this year, after a 62 points season.
Although you're apparently aware that there were special circumstances, you clearly don't understand.

MacA's agent clearly proposed a grossly high salary in the summer of 2010 because he wanted to potentially drag the arbitrator's $-value decision upwards. Makes sense: People often advertise products online at higher prices so that counter-offers, and eventual compromises, end up where the actual value of the product is.

Atlanta never had any intention to sign MacArthur and basically told the arbitrator "Let's not waste everyone's time: give Clarke what he wants so we can walk away."

The $2.4 million asking price was not realistically reflective of the value of a 35-point season.

I posted above the agreements reached by arbitration-elects during last year's free agency period.

Moulson got $2.45M for an 82-game, 48-point season
Raymond got $2.55M for an 82-game, 51-point season
Fleischmann got $2.8M for a 69-game, 53 point season. (Pace: 82 games, 61 points)

In all cases, these were career years and far-exceeded previous career-highs. This applies to MacArthur for this off-season as well.

Notice that all these agreements were more than MacA's $2.4M asking price, at significantly higher production levels.

Fleischmann is the best comparable in this case, and you can therefore anticipate a $2.8-$3.2M reward for MacArthur.

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Old
07-01-2011, 11:26 PM
  #91
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Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Although you're apparently aware that there were special circumstances, you clearly don't understand.

(...)
You clearly did not understand that I understood, thus the "special circumstances" tag...

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Old
07-01-2011, 11:30 PM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beauchamp View Post
The good old two-headed monster:

(1) You know what you're talking about.

(2) You don't know what you're talking about and have lost all the credibility you had gained with (1).

If you don't qualify a player who's not a UFA, he becomes a UFA.
2 is wrong, but 1 is right. You can't tender an offer sheet to a player who has filed for arbitration.

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Old
07-01-2011, 11:30 PM
  #93
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
Fleischmann, the closest comparable, was on pace for 61 points in an 82-game season. How is this not a realistic comparison?
First of all, Feishman is no longer on that 2.8 contract. His current contract makes him a guy I would definately not want to use as an example.

Second, guys who have injury problems are worth less than guys who have shown to be pretty durable.

Lastly, Fleishman is a very soft and one-dimensional player. I think MacArthur's all-around game gets a little overbown, but it's certainly far superior to Fleishman's.

Quote:
As for Moulson and Raymond, that's why my predicted outcome for MacA's arbitration hearing was "substantially more" than what they received for lesser point totals. What isn't there to get?
You're using the guys that Brian Burke will be using as comparables. They are, at best, on the lower end of the comparison.

Moulson is a one-dimensional rebound-collector. He's good at one thing. He's not physical and he brings no defensive ability to the table.

Raymond is a good comparison. They are similar players, and that cotract is pretty fair for what he brings.

Quote:
You wouldn't pay a 60-point player more than $2M? But you just finished saying MacArthur was more productive than all those players, who received more than $2M. Your reasoning makes no sense.
I think MacArthur is a flash in the pan. He's not a legit second liner, so I wouldn't pay him like one.

Just because I think he has a good case in an arbitrationn hearing doesn't mean I agree with what the arbitrator decides.

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Old
07-01-2011, 11:36 PM
  #94
Duke Silver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
First of all, Feishman is no longer on that 2.8 contract. His current contract makes him a guy I would definately not want to use as an example.
I provided RFA examples, and you're referring to a UFA example.

I don't think you understand how arbitration works, including which comparables are admitted in the process, despite the fact that Squiffy and others have repeatedly given you evidence from the CBA to support their arguments.

I will now throw my hands up in the air and cease trying to beat sense into you.

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Old
07-02-2011, 12:01 AM
  #95
Dreakmur
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke Silver View Post
I provided RFA examples, and you're referring to a UFA example.

I don't think you understand how arbitration works, including which comparables are admitted in the process, despite the fact that Squiffy and others have repeatedly given you evidence from the CBA to support their arguments.

I will now throw my hands up in the air and cease trying to beat sense into you.
Thanks to Squiffy, I know exactly how it works.

You listed 3 players. None of them actually made it to arbitration. Two of them have since signed new contracts. Only one is actually a decent comparable, and he had an off season this year.

This season, 25 players scored between 60 and 69 points. 3 of them are on entry level deals (Tavars, Duchene, and Skinner). 3 others are in the 3 million range (Clowe, Tanguay, and Krejci). The remiaining guys are all making between 4 and 9 million.

I'm not saying he should get 4+ million. I'm saying he has a good case for that. If you beleive MacArthur's season was the real deal, then there are a lot more comparable players making 4 and 5 million than there are making 2 or 3.

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Old
07-02-2011, 12:07 AM
  #96
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Not convinced we need Macarthur unless he goes long term for lower hit.

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07-02-2011, 12:10 AM
  #97
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Not convinced we need Macarthur unless he goes long term for lower hit.
I'd actually prefer we didn't have him. Give Kadri a chance to play top-6.

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07-02-2011, 12:17 AM
  #98
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I'd actually prefer we didn't have him. Give Kadri a chance to play top-6.

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Old
07-02-2011, 12:18 AM
  #99
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
I'd actually prefer we didn't have him. Give Kadri a chance to play top-6.
I don't see a need for one year of Clarke Macarthur. That is fat we don't need.

Most arbitration settlements are one year I assume.

Also, you can't assume Kadri will be ready for that role.

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07-02-2011, 12:21 AM
  #100
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Need a third line winger if Kadri's going up and Mac is out. Could be Frattin I suppose. Mentioned a few days ago that the Leafs may just be none to concerned about losing Mac in that they could likely slot Kadri into a top 6 position they probably want to have him in and be pretty happy with it. I was assuming a 3rd line winger UFA signing at the time, but it could be Frattin.

I think they want him back though for sure, just at the right price obviously.

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