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The reason why the Habs wanted Hamrlik back

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07-03-2011, 12:31 PM
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Ozymandias
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The reason why the Habs wanted Hamrlik back

When the season ended, I started compiling GAA stats for Dmen across the league. I didn't have time to complete it until recently. What I did was compile all the Dmen who played at least 20 minutes per game in average, and at least 40% of the season (33 games), and then compiled their GAA per 60 minutes, overall, even-strenght and penalty kill. 101 Dmen fit this profile (oddly enough). The reason I did this is because I believe the +/- stat is a lot more useful for fowards, than actually determining what Dman is the best defensively. The reason for this is that the +/- can be extremely misleading. It counts ES GF vs ES GA. Now if a D plays with offensive dynamos at ES, that D will have a high GF, so even if he was average defensively, his +/- might still be above even, and the opposite also comes true, if a D plays with average foward, he might have very good defensive stats, but his +/- will be low because the forwards he has don't contribute as much. +/- is good to get a general idea of a player's contribution, but if you want a better look at the defensive side of the player, especially Ds since they are closely related to GA, is to take the GA collumn by itself.

For Dmen, I take away the GF stats, and concentrate on the defensive side, the GA stats, vs their minutes played, which gives a much better picture of how the dmen performed defensively.

I will advise that this list comprises mostly top 4 Ds, but it is normal that there are discrepancies, I leave to the posters to place those players into their context (1st/2nd/3rd pairing replacing, sheltered, supports a pair, things like that, what goalie do they play in front of, the other players that make-up their usual 5 men unit).


Overall
Name-Games-TOI/G-TOI-GA-GAA
1- F. Bouillon 44 20:13 890 26 1,75
2- B. Campbell 65 22:58 1494 46 1,85
3- C. Ehrhoff 79 23:59 1895 59 1,87
4- R. Suter 70 25:12 1764 55 1,87
5- M. Green 49 25:11 1234 40 1,94
6- T. Kaberle 82 22:06 1813 59 1,95
7- J. Boychuk 69 20:30 1415 47 1,99
8- K. Bieksa 66 22:28 1483 51 2,06
9- D. Hamhuis 64 22:40 1452 50 2,07
10- K. Yandle 82 24:22 1999 71 2,13
11- J. Carlson 82 22:38 1857 66 2,13
12- P. Martin 77 23:21 1799 65 2,17
13- J. Garrison 73 22:17 1627 61 2,25
14- A. Goligoski 83 22:14 1846 70 2,28
15- M. Carle 82 21:59 1803 69 2,30
16- S. Weber 82 25:19 2076 80 2,31
17- L. Visnovsky 81 24:17 1968 76 2,32
18- A. Edler 51 24:17 1239 48 2,32
19- Z. Chara 81 25:26 2060 81 2,36
20- K. Alzner 82 20:00 1641 65 2,38
21- P.K. Subban 77 22:16 1715 68 2,38
22- A. Meszaros 81 21:07 1711 68 2,38
23- J. Johnson 82 23:11 1902 76 2,40
24- M. Staal 77 25:44 1982 80 2,42
25- C. Fowler 76 22:07 1682 68 2,43
26- A. Sekera 76 21:05 1603 65 2,43
27- K. Letang 82 24:02 1971 80 2,44
28- B. Orpik 63 20:52 1316 54 2,46
29- N. Knonwall 77 22:52 1761 73 2,49
30- R. Hamrlik 79 22:16 1760 73 2,49
31- T. Daley 82 22:29 1844 77 2,51
32- W. Mitchell 57 21:48 1243 52 2,51
33- D. Doughty 76 25:38 1949 82 2,52
34- S. Gonchar 67 23:11 1554 66 2,55
35- D. Phaneuf 66 25:18 1670 71 2,55
36- A. Pietrangelo 79 22:00 1738 74 2,55
37- B. Rafalski 63 20:25 1287 55 2,56
38- D. Byfuglien 81 23:18 1888 81 2,57
39- M. Roszival 65 21:00 1365 59 2,59
40- M. Weaver 82 20:48 1706 75 2,64
41- D. Boyle 76 26:14 1994 88 2,65
42- J. Wisniewski 75 22:56 1721 77 2,68
43- M. Giordano 82 23:08 1898 85 2,69
44- J.M. Liles 76 22:00 1673 75 2,69
45- D. Seidenberg 81 23:32 1907 86 2,71
46- K. Klein 81 20:47 1684 76 2,71
47- B. Coburn 82 21:04 1728 78 2,71
48- Z. Michalek 73 21:50 1594 72 2,71
49- E. Karlsson 75 23:30 1764 81 2,76
50- J. Corvo 82 24:46 2032 94 2,78

One thing I noticed, which is offtopic to Hamrlik, still, it I was kinda shocked when I saw this, Mr Norris himself didn't do really good this year. His +/- is inflated by his points, but more importantly, his offensive teamates offensive production (total GA). Lidstrom was given a special treatment this year in terms of the Norris, as Chara and Weber did A LOT better defensively :

78- N. Lidstrom 82 23:28 1924 98 3,06

Now on to even-strenght, you'll notice a lot of players from the overall top 50 who have disappeared in the ES top 50 category. The simple reason for this is that some of those players had a lot of PP time.

Even-Strenght
Name-Games-TOI-GA-GAA
1- F. Bouillon 44 773 20 1,55
2- B. Campbell 65 1249 33 1,59
3- K. Bieksa 66 1193 32 1,61
4- J. Boychuk 69 1193 33 1,66
5- R. Suter 70 1382 42 1,82
6- D. Hamhuis 64 1149 37 1,93
7- K. Alzner 82 1437 48 2,00
8- J. Garrison 73 1284 43 2,01
9- Z. Chara 81 1577 53 2,02
10- M. Weaver 82 1421 48 2,03
11- J. Carlson 82 1485 51 2,06
12- B. Orpik 63 1074 37 2,07
13- T. Lydman 78 1392 48 2,07
14- R. Hamrlik 79 1404 49 2,09
15- M. Green 49 901 32 2,13
16- A. Meszaros 81 1348 48 2,14
17- R. Scuderi 82 1431 51 2,14
18- G. Zanon 82 1508 55 2,19
19- K. Klein 81 1421 52 2,20
20- M.E. Vlasic 80 1418 52 2,20
21- C. Ehrhoff 79 1445 53 2,20
22- M. Staal 77 1537 57 2,23
23- A. Aucoin 75 1335 50 2,25
24- A. Edler 51 933 35 2,25
25- P. Martin 77 1354 51 2,26
26- T. Daley 82 1533 58 2,27
27- K. Yandle 82 1603 61 2,28
28- M. Eaton 34 569 22 2,32
29- D. Morris 77 1366 53 2,33
30- E. Jovanovski 50 823 32 2,33
31- R. Whitney 35 641 25 2,34
32- E. Brewer 76 1392 55 2,37
33- N. Knonwall 77 1337 53 2,38
34- H. Tallinder 82 1609 64 2,39
35- T. Kaberle 82 1456 58 2,39
36- S. Weber 82 1604 64 2,39
37- D. Girardi 80 1547 62 2,40
38- W. Mitchell 57 1043 42 2,42
39- M. Carle 82 1514 61 2,42
40- M. Roszival 65 1112 45 2,43
41- A. Sekera 76 1306 53 2,43
42- R. O'Byrne 67 1165 48 2,47
43- J. Oduya 82 1379 57 2,48
44- D. Seidenberg 81 1548 64 2,48
45- B. Coburn 82 1495 62 2,49
46- D. Doughty 76 1476 62 2,52
47- A. Goligoski 83 1402 59 2,52
48- Z. Michalek 73 1232 52 2,53
49- R. Regehr 79 1424 61 2,57
50- A. Pietrangelo 79 1344 58 2,59

Again, offtopic, but I noticed Mr Norris himself was one of the worst Ds defensively among all Dmen who played 20 minutes or more per game : on 101 players :

92- N. Lidstrom 82 1373 71 3,10


For the PK, this is in no way a complete list for the best PKers. It's a list of the best PKers among Ds who played 20 minutes or more per game. The Ds with the most TS played ranged between 280-300 minutes, so again, I cutted out those who didn't play more than 40% of that number. So I excluded the players who had less than 100 minutes of PK. HM to several players who had great averages although didn't play over 100 minutes (JJ and several others).

Shorthanded
Name-Games-TOI-GA-GAA
1- C. Ehrhoff 79 168,5 6 2,14
2- E. Karlsson 75 110 4 2,18
3- W. Mitchell 57 194 10 3,09
4- P.K. Subban 77 195,5 11 3,38
5- D. Hamhuis 64 202 13 3,86
6- P. Martin 77 211,5 14 3,97
7- M. Green 49 115,5 8 4,16
8- D. Wideman 75 181,5 13 4,30
9- B. Orpik 63 235,5 17 4,33
10- Z. Michalek 73 275 20 4,36
11- J. Gorges 36 135,5 10 4,43
12- J. Garrison 73 229,5 18 4,71
13- J. Carlson 82 191 15 4,71
14- M. Carle 82 100,5 8 4,78
15- B. Coburn 82 200 16 4,80
16- A. Sekera 76 138,5 12 5,20
17- N. Knonwall 77 225 20 5,33
18- A. Greene 82 190,5 17 5,35
19- R. Suter 70 141,5 13 5,51
20- B. Burns 80 217 20 5,53
21- S. Weber 82 173 16 5,55
22- J. Boychuk 69 151 14 5,56
23- C. Phillips 82 290,5 27 5,58
24- K. Klein 81 256,5 24 5,61
25- M. Staal 77 241,5 23 5,71
26- R. Martinek 64 166,5 16 5,77
27- K. Alzner 82 174 17 5,86
28- T. Gleason 82 224 22 5,89
29- M. Giordano 82 173 17 5,90
30- A. Goligoski 83 111 11 5,95
31- N. Schultz 74 201,5 20 5,96
32- J. Corvo 82 221,5 22 5,96
33- V. Hedman 79 160,5 16 5,98
34- D. Hedja 77 219 22 6,03
35- M. Weaver 82 266,5 27 6,08
36- A. Pietrangelo 79 156,5 16 6,13
37- S. Gonchar 67 107 11 6,17
38- K. Letang 82 173 18 6,24
39- E. Brewer 76 238 25 6,30
40- F. Tyutin 80 217,5 23 6,34
41- K. Bieksa 66 177 19 6,44
42- B. Stuart 67 237,5 26 6,57
43- R. Scuderi 82 227,5 25 6,59
44- T. Myers 80 215,5 24 6,68
45- T. Hamonic 62 134,5 15 6,69
46- M. Lundin 69 178,5 20 6,72
47- B. Jackman 60 169,5 19 6,73
48- F. Kuba 64 160 18 6,75
49- S. Robidas 81 266 30 6,77
50- H. Tallinder 82 194 22 6,80



-64 N. Lidstrom 82 219 27 7,40



Now on to the Habs. As we've noticed previously, Hamrlik was one of the most dominant Ds at ES in the whole league. Not one Habs who has close to 20 minutes or more comes even close. Our 2nd best at ES (among Ds with 19+ minutes per game) was Spacek, surprisingly.


Overall
Name-Games-TOI-GA-GAA
A. Markov 7 22:54 160 3 1,13
Y. Weber 41 16:33 679 22 1,94
A. Picard 43 16:25 762 25 1,97
P.K. Subban 77 22:16 1715 68 2,38
J. Spacek 59 19:14 1135 47 2,48
R. Hamrlik 79 22:16 1760 73 2,49
J. Wisniewski 75 22:56 1721 77 2,68
H. Gill 75 19:49 1487 69 2,78
J. Gorges 36 21:10 762 36 2,83
P. Mara 20 15:09 303 15 2,97
B. Sopel 12 15:54 191 11 3,46


Even-Strenght
Name-TOI-GA-GAA
A. Markov 121 3 1,49
J. Spacek 922 31 2,02
Y. Weber 558 19 2,04
R. Hamrlik 1404 49 2,09
P. Mara 246 9 2,20
A. Picard 637 24 2,26
H. Gill 1198 50 2,50
J. Gorges 602 26 2,59
P.K. Subban 1282 57 2,67

J. Wisniewski 1311 64 2,93
B. Sopel 157 9 3,44


Penalty Kill
Name-TOI-GA-GAA
A. Markov 14,5 0 0,00
A. Picard 25 1 2,40
P.K. Subban 195,5 11 3,38
B. Sopel 33,5 2 3,58
H. Gill 284 19 4,01
Y. Weber 44,5 3 4,05
J. Gorges 135,5 10 4,43
R. Hamrlik 153,5 24 9,38
J. Wisniewski 75,5 13 10,33
P. Mara 52 6 6,91
J. Spacek 134 16 7,16

While Subban, Gorges and Gill were all incredible on the PK, and PK being one of the best league on the PK, they all were average at ES.

I'm not worried about Subban doing better at ES, because in the last 30 games of the season, Subban stats were normalizing positively, as he was playing 25+ minutes and his ES GAA was much closer to 2,00 at the end of the season.

But Gill and Gorges were promoted to where they shouldn't have been as did Hamrlik. But we lost the only one of the three who was actually capable of keeping good ES GAA, despite playing one pairing over his usual spot.

If I were PG, I'd try and snag Kaberle before he signs anywhere else. People constantly blast him, yet he has one of the best overall and ES GAA in the league, despite playing more than half the season with the Leafs.


Last edited by Ozymandias: 07-03-2011 at 12:55 PM.
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Old
07-03-2011, 12:42 PM
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So by your estimation. Bouillon and Campbell are the best 2 dmen in the league.
This still doesn't account for turn overs, puck battles etc.

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07-03-2011, 12:43 PM
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Great analysis ozy, enjoyed reading that.

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07-03-2011, 12:44 PM
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wow we should offer sheet Alzner !

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07-03-2011, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrokenRetina View Post
So by your estimation. Bouillon and Campbell are the best 2 dmen in the league.
This still doesn't account for turn overs, puck battles etc.
I did not make THAT estimation, you put words in mouth.

I guess you missed this part :

Quote:
I will advise that this list comprises mostly top 4 Ds, but it is normal that there are discrepancies, I leave to the posters to place those players into their context (1st/2nd/3rd pairing replacing, sheltered, supports a pair, things like that, what goalie do they play in front of, the other players that make-up their usual 5 men unit).
Relating To Hamrlik, he played the most ES time on the Habs abd faced some of the toughest opposition AND finished among the best Ds defensively in the whole league at ES.

That's my estimation. I didn't talk of Bouillon nor Campbell, because as I said, you need to place the players into their context.


Last edited by Ozymandias: 07-03-2011 at 12:59 PM.
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07-03-2011, 12:52 PM
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I know Markov's sample is way too small but it's still awesome to see his incredible stats

Also... is Bouillon really such a stud all of a sudden ? I know he's not on the top pairing so he doesn't face the first two lines (or does he?) but still, this is quite impressive

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07-03-2011, 12:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
I made no estimation, you put words in mouth.

I guess you missed this part :
Yes I know.
If you can incorporate turns over etc into the math then you have yourself a fantastic list. Until then you removed basics to make numbers work.
Mind you they are just numbers and for a defense man they mean squat. Take Scott Stevens for example.

Anyways. Good work. Let's see some numbers for top 6 wingers that play 18mins + and their points per minute.

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07-03-2011, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BrokenRetina View Post
Yes I know.
If you can incorporate turns over etc into the math then you have yourself a fantastic list. Until then you removed basics to make numbers work.
Mind you they are just numbers and for a defense man they mean squat. Take Scott Stevens for example.

Anyways. Good work. Let's see some numbers for top 6 wingers that play 18mins + and their points per minute.


No matter the number of turnovers, the results are still the same. The difference between GA on the same team is extremely revealing. As I said put it into context, look at the list at ES for the Habs. Hamrlik surpassed everyone of them and played the most minutes at even-strenght, with almost 0,50 per game (60 minutes) less allowed. Any way you might try to twist that, it's a strong correlation between our own Ds efficiency.

This is isn't even about Hamrlik vs the rest of the league. It's what Hamrlik provided to us, and I fear we might end-up missing him more than any other D that has left over the years, unless we can adequately replace him, but the number of suiters is drawing thin.



Hamrlik was highest in blockshots. That's an indication that not all dmen work the same way.

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07-03-2011, 01:08 PM
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I did not realize Subban was so awesome on the penalty kill.

Great analysis Ozymandias. This team will have a hard time replacing Hamrlik.

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07-03-2011, 01:08 PM
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Well, from this, adding Markov & giving more games to Weber will more than make-up for the loss of Hamerlik, albeit Markov's sample size is way too small. I'm not surprised to see Spacek so high. He is actually fine at ES, but he sucks on the PK or PP.

The only problem I have with a D-core of: Markov-Gorges, Gill-Subban, and Spacek - Weber is a general lack of toughness. Otherwise that is a a strong group. We have an elite pair of offensive d-man in Markov/Subban. A fine pair of defensive D-man in Gill/Gorges, and some good depth players in Spacek/Weber. I would love to add a player with size and toughness to our D-core.

As for Hamrlik, he was good for us, but it was time for him to move on.

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07-03-2011, 01:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knuck View Post
I know Markov's sample is way too small but it's still awesome to see his incredible stats

Also... is Bouillon really such a stud all of a sudden ? I know he's not on the top pairing so he doesn't face the first two lines (or does he?) but still, this is quite impressive
He played 2nd pairing with Suter on some shifts, kinda helped him.

Bouillon, for his usual position (3rd pairing) had a very strong year.

I compiled the same list last year, and Markov's numbers, although he had played only 45 games, were extremely similar to Lidstrom this year, although he doesn't have the same supporting cast on the top slots, although Markov played with 'better' goalies. Around same GAA, Markov's was a little bit lower, and their TOI had the same GF production rate, around 4,00 GFPG. Markov's point-per-game ration was about the same as Lidstrom.

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07-03-2011, 01:10 PM
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Bouillon?

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07-03-2011, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by CammerScores View Post
Well, from this, adding Markov & giving more games to Weber will more than make-up for the loss of Hamerlik, albeit Markov's sample size is way too small. I'm not surprised to see Spacek so high. He is actually fine at ES, but he sucks on the PK or PP.

The only problem I have with a D-core of: Markov-Gorges, Gill-Subban, and Spacek - Weber is a general lack of toughness. Otherwise that is a a strong group. We have an elite pair of offensive d-man in Markov/Subban. A fine pair of defensive D-man in Gill/Gorges, and some good depth players in Spacek/Weber. I would love to add a player with size and toughness to our D-core.

As for Hamrlik, he was good for us, but it was time for him to move on.
Not sure about Weber. The times he played top 4 pairing, he was WITH Hamr, and he got most of his low GAA against weaker opposition. It's much easier to get lower GAA against weaker oppositions and lower minutes. He will definitely get there though, not sure it's this season. Look at Picard's numbers. It's pretty typical for bottom pairing Ds to have low GAA.

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07-03-2011, 01:21 PM
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Hamrlik was good for two more seasons.

What a hole to fill!

ps. astounding stats compilation!

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07-03-2011, 01:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Born in 1909 View Post
Hamrlik was good for two more seasons.

What a hole to fill!

ps. astounding stats compilation!
It's a shame that the +/- category on the NHL site doesn't offer that equation, although it should be pretty simple and would give a better look at the defensive contribution of Dmen over the ES GF/GA overall stat.

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07-03-2011, 01:28 PM
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Also, compiling those stats, I got really scared of Was at ES for the next season. Their top 4 is pretty heffin solid. Only Carlson is on the same level or close/lilhigher to Subban or Markov, but the depth of their top 4 is quite impressive : Carlson, Green, Alzner, Hamr.

Teams will have a hard time beating them.

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07-03-2011, 01:31 PM
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Lidstrom had the toughest quality of compitition metrics of any defenseman at even strength last season. That largely explains the lackluster defensive numbers.

Gill and Gorges were also consistently used as very tough minute guys, both being top 30 in the league in QUALCOMP (Gorges 8, Gill 21) which explains the lack luster ES numbers.

Hammer was also being used in tough situation so his numbers are stellar. Only a healthy Markov, who is also a tough situation warrior, would be able to replace him on even strength. The mark of how good Markov was is that it took Hamrlik to replace him at even strength and Wisniewski to replace him on the powerplay as he can do both those jobs.

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07-03-2011, 01:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Also, compiling those stats, I got really scared of Was at ES for the next season. Their top 4 is pretty heffin solid. Only Carlson is on the same level or close/lilhigher to Subban or Markov, but the depth of their top 4 is quite impressive : Carlson, Green, Alzner, Hamr.

Teams will have a hard time beating them.
And they have Vokoun... and Ovechkin might bounce back from the worst season of his career.

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07-03-2011, 01:33 PM
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Great analysis Ozy!

But really, you're just giving empirical work to the notion that all level-headed Habs fans already knew. Hamrlik was what he was: a good defensemen who kept the puck out of the net. He wasn't what he used to be, and wasn't someone who could give you 30 minutes a night the whole season, but he could be the best bottom pairing blueliner in the league. He comes in and takes the load when needed, and I think he could admirably lead a D-core for a good 15-20 games if your #1 is out.

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07-03-2011, 01:33 PM
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I agree with Ozy,

they wanted him back so badly, which is why they offered him only 1 year.

It makes sense, yes.

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07-03-2011, 01:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
Also, compiling those stats, I got really scared of Was at ES for the next season. Their top 4 is pretty heffin solid. Only Carlson is on the same level or close/lilhigher to Subban or Markov, but the depth of their top 4 is quite impressive : Carlson, Green, Alzner, Hamr.

Teams will have a hard time beating them.
Wideman-Schultz is a pretty stellar third pairing too. Yemelin needs to be top-4 caliber if Montreal wants to match them.

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07-03-2011, 01:33 PM
  #22
Madam Kadri
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Nice work and it will be interesting to digest for me. Now, I don't want to further tax you too much, but I think that you should split up those guys who changed teams mid-season via trade, like Wiz and Kaberle, just to see how they did before and after.

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07-03-2011, 01:39 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by coolasprICE View Post
I agree with Ozy,

they wanted him back so badly, which is why they offered him only 1 year.

It makes sense, yes.
They only offered one year to Gill too.

Kinda normal when players are pass 35 years old. We've heard so much about how it's so perilous to sign them to multi year contracts.


It's very telling that instead of telling us again how Gill is so much better than Hamrlik, you use a sarcasm to run away from the facts. The only thing Gill is better at is the PK, for the rest, Hamr hands down. Deal with it.

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07-03-2011, 01:41 PM
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The OP's argument acknowledges minutes played and the influence of forwards but it neglects (understandably so) other factors: the goaltenders, the defense partners, and the defensive responsibilities (e.g., playing against the opponent's top line). Aside from that, how does the Dman fare after the score gets lopsided either way, in which case he naturally plays with less imotivation compared with a tight game.

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07-03-2011, 01:42 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Lidstrom had the toughest quality of compitition metrics of any defenseman at even strength last season. That largely explains the lackluster defensive numbers.

Gill and Gorges were also consistently used as very tough minute guys, both being top 30 in the league in QUALCOMP (Gorges 8, Gill 21) which explains the lack luster ES numbers.

Hammer was also being used in tough situation so his numbers are stellar. Only a healthy Markov, who is also a tough situation warrior, would be able to replace him on even strength. The mark of how good Markov was is that it took Hamrlik to replace him at even strength and Wisniewski to replace him on the powerplay as he can do both those jobs.
Yet played with extremely good ES players in Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Something's amiss.

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