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Old
07-06-2011, 10:24 AM
  #201
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Originally Posted by Shadowtron View Post
This is being a bit disingenuous, Shadow. How many people have off the top of their heads, as basic simple knowledge, the year by year statistics of hockey drafts across 30 teams?
OK, would "somewhat more advanced hockey knowledge" be more appropriate?

The fact is, if you know how few second rounders end up having NHL careers, you can appreciate how rare it is for a team to select an Anisimov, a Stepan and a Sauer in the span of only a few years.

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07-06-2011, 10:25 AM
  #202
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But I say they've done an excellent job. Which is also why I think Sather has done an excellent job post-lockout, since we're improving year in and year out without bottom feeding and drafting several top 5 picks like LA.
This is where you lose me. Sather has made huge mistakes POST LOCKOUT...including Redden, Gomez, Drury, Brashear, Kotalik, Boogaard (RIP), Frolov, Rozsival's contract, etc.

You can also list things Sather has accomplished since the lockout, but when you add that to the items I just mentioned you can harldy say he's done an 'excellent' job post lockout.

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07-06-2011, 10:25 AM
  #203
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
You've decided the 2005-2008 drafts were excellent? Seriously?

No question Staal was a very good pick in 2005. Michael Sauer is the only other player from that draft.

The 2006 draft brought us Bobby Sanguinetti and Artem Anisimov.

Tragically we never found out how good the 2007 draft might have been.

The 2008 draft uncovered Derek Stepan...but so far that's it. Nobody knows which way del Zotto's career is headed. Put a fork in Grachev.

Finding Staal and Stepan in four years of drafting isn't terrible...but it's certainly not 'excellent' either.
Picking in our draft positions, you are not going to hit gold, you're just gambling. Sometimes you win and most of the time you lose. The fact that we've gotten very good NHL players like Staal, Sauer, Stepan and Anisimov should be called very good mid level drafting.

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07-06-2011, 10:27 AM
  #204
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
Statistics? Really? Statistics? Look at the drafts. Staal is very good. Sauer is a third pairing defenseman at this point. Stepan's future is bright. Anisimov may have a higher ceiling than he's shown.

You can manipulate statisics to say anything you like. but common sense is also a factor. As I said the drafting from 2005-2008 was not terrible. It may turn out to be pretty good when all is said and done, depending on which way del Zotto goes, and how big the upsides of Stepan, Sauer, Anisimov, etc., turn out to be.

But calling it 'excellent' at this point is silly.
Common sense stems from knowing the facts. Your idea of an "excellent" draft differs greatly from what an excellent draft looks like statistically. That's my point.

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07-06-2011, 10:27 AM
  #205
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
This is where you lose me. Sather has made huge mistakes POST LOCKOUT...including Redden, Gomez, Drury, Brashear, Kotalik, Boogaard (RIP), Frolov, Rozsival's contract, etc.

You can also list things Sather has accomplished since the lockout, but when you add that to the items I just mentioned you can harldy say he's done an 'excellent' job post lockout.
It's all relative. Pre-lockout all you had were Sather mistakes without any Sather good moves. At least now we're getting some positives along with all the usual mistakes.

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07-06-2011, 10:32 AM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
This is where you lose me. Sather has made huge mistakes POST LOCKOUT...including Redden, Gomez, Drury, Brashear, Kotalik, Boogaard (RIP), Frolov, Rozsival's contract, etc.

You can also list things Sather has accomplished since the lockout, but when you add that to the items I just mentioned you can harldy say he's done an 'excellent' job post lockout.
Redden, Gomez, Drury = colossal blunders, but those are really the only blemishes on his post-lockout resume. You can't call small gambles like Frolov or Brashear "huge mistakes," because they didn't affect the club AT ALL long-term. The same goes for Kotalik, who actually worked out terrific thanks to Sather's trade magic. Rozsi was a fair contract for a UFA. In fact, if that's one of your gripes with Sather, you might as well stick a fork in 95% of GMs out there.

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07-06-2011, 10:40 AM
  #207
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
OK, would "somewhat more advanced hockey knowledge" be more appropriate?

The fact is, if you know how few second rounders end up having NHL careers, you can appreciate how rare it is for a team to select an Anisimov, a Stepan and a Sauer in the span of only a few years.
Is it really that rare though? I mean, there are 30 teams with 23-24 players on each active roster (not to mention the prospects waiting in the wings)... and only a handful of those were chosen beyond the 2nd round? I think you're overselling you're point here. I think a better point you could be making is that given how much harder it gets to acquire top 6 players in the latter rounds, one can appreciate the job the Rangers have been doing (in those rounds) lately. And I certainly do. Would I summarize these 05-08 drafts as excellent? Nope because the bread and butter round (1st) has left a lot to be desired. Good? Yup.

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07-06-2011, 10:40 AM
  #208
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Redden, Gomez, Drury = colossal blunders, but those are really the only blemishes on his post-lockout resume. You can't call small gambles like Frolov or Brashear "huge mistakes," because they didn't affect the club AT ALL long-term. The same goes for Kotalik, who actually worked out terrific thanks to Sather's trade magic. Rozsi was a fair contract for a UFA. In fact, if that's one of your gripes with Sather, you might as well stick a fork in 95% of GMs out there.
rozsi's contract was not good at all.

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07-06-2011, 10:42 AM
  #209
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
OK, would "somewhat more advanced hockey knowledge" be more appropriate?

The fact is, if you know how few second rounders end up having NHL careers, you can appreciate how rare it is for a team to select an Anisimov, a Stepan and a Sauer in the span of only a few years.
OK, you're a statistics guy, let's see how rare it is for teams to draft a player in the second round (or later) who end up having NHL careers.

2005 has the longest track record, of course...James Neal, M-E Vlasic, Justin Abdelkader, Paul Stastny, Guillame Latendresse, Mason Raymond, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, Cody Franson, Jared Boll, Keith Yandle, Darren Helm, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Kyle Cumiskey, Patric Hornqvist, Ondrej Pavelec, Adam McQuaid, Kris Russell, TJ Hensick, Chris Butler, Vkladimir Sobotka, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Nathen Gerbe, Tom Wandell, Cal O'Reilly, Tim Kennedy, Anton Stralman

All drafted in the second round or beyond


Last edited by Jersey Girl: 07-06-2011 at 10:50 AM.
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07-06-2011, 10:44 AM
  #210
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Originally Posted by Black Tank View Post
Picking in our draft positions, you are not going to hit gold, you're just gambling. Sometimes you win and most of the time you lose. The fact that we've gotten very good NHL players like Staal, Sauer, Stepan and Anisimov should be called very good mid level drafting.
You can argue 'very good'. That's debatable. But calling it 'excellent' was ridiculous.

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07-06-2011, 10:45 AM
  #211
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It's all relative. Pre-lockout all you had were Sather mistakes without any Sather good moves. At least now we're getting some positives along with all the usual mistakes.
This I can agree with.

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07-06-2011, 10:49 AM
  #212
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Redden, Gomez, Drury = colossal blunders, but those are really the only blemishes on his post-lockout resume. You can't call small gambles like Frolov or Brashear "huge mistakes," because they didn't affect the club AT ALL long-term. The same goes for Kotalik, who actually worked out terrific thanks to Sather's trade magic. Rozsi was a fair contract for a UFA. In fact, if that's one of your gripes with Sather, you might as well stick a fork in 95% of GMs out there.
So you agree Redden, Gomez and Drury were colossal blunders. And you still say Sather has been 'excellent' post lockout. Perhaps we just have different definitions of 'excellent'.

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07-06-2011, 11:01 AM
  #213
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
OK, you're a statistics guy, let's see how rare it is for teams to draft a player in the second round (or later) who end up having NHL careers.

2005 has the longest track record, of course...James Neal, M-E Vlasic, Justin Abdelkader, Paul Stastny, Guillame Latendresse, Mason Raymond, Kris Letang, Jonathan Quick, Cody Franson, Jared Boll, Keith Yandle, Darren Helm, Matt D'Agostini, Sergei Kostitsyn, Kyle Cumiskey, Patric Hornqvist, Ondrej Pavelec, Adam McQuaid, Kris Russell, TJ Hensick, Chris Butler, Vkladimir Sobotka, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Nathen Gerbe, Tom Wandell, Cal O'Reilly, Tim Kennedy, Anton Stralman
So that's what, 20 something players out of 200 picks? And half of them fringe NHL players. Granted, Sauer came out of nowhere, but at this point there are only a handful of players on that list I'd rather have.

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07-06-2011, 11:07 AM
  #214
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Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
So you agree Redden, Gomez and Drury were colossal blunders. And you still say Sather has been 'excellent' post lockout. Perhaps we just have different definitions of 'excellent'.
Who would ever disagree? That's probably the one point ALL Rangers fan agree with. That said, Gomez was turned into two solid assets in Gabby and McD, and Redden and Drury are no longer an issue (minor cap annoyances aside). Since I don't give a damn about Dolan's money, that lessens the gravity of the mistakes in my book.

Add to that the good things that the management has been doing, and where we are as a club going forward, I don't see why "excellent" is an unfair assessment.

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07-06-2011, 11:10 AM
  #215
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
So that's what, 20 something players out of 200 picks? And half of them fringe NHL players. Granted, Sauer came out of nowhere, but at this point there are only a handful of players on that list I'd rather have.
Not the point. First of all I listed 28 players, not 20.

Second of all, your statement I was responding to was this:

Quote:
The fact is, if you know how few second rounders end up having NHL careers, you can appreciate how rare it is for a team to select an Anisimov, a Stepan and a Sauer in the span of only a few years.
Well I just mentioned quite a few players drafted after the first round in ONE SEASON that are having NHL careers.

You can call some of them 'fringe' if that makes you feel better, but I'm sure fans of other teams would also call Sauer and Anisimov 'fringe players' right now too. But the point is that it's not as rare for a player drafted after the first round to make it in the NHL as you are trying to make it seem.


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07-06-2011, 11:10 AM
  #216
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On top of all the other great stuff he's been doing since the lockout, now he manages to get his UFA without overpaying him. Anyone still think he's no different than he was pre-lockout?
Yes and no. Hes been great about keeping prospects and making a young homegrown team that is one of my favorites since I have become a fan.

However he has shown restriction with ONE big UFA, and signed exactly ONE big UFA to a reasonable contract. Not to mention we were #1 on his places to play list. What if we were #3? Would we have seen a 70 mil contract? 75?

One contract is not a trend, its barely a start. We will see how the rest of FA pans out and FA next year.

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07-06-2011, 11:11 AM
  #217
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Not the point. Your statement I was responding to was this:



Well I just mentioned quite a few players drafted after the first round in ONE SEASON that are having NHL careers.

You can call some of them 'fringe' if that makes you feel better, but I'm sure fans of other teams would also call Sauer and Anisimov 'fringe players' right now too. But the point is that it's not as rare for a player drafted after the rist round to make it in the NHL as you are trying to make it seem.
22 year old with 44 points in his second season is fringe??

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07-06-2011, 11:21 AM
  #218
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Who would ever disagree? That's probably the one point ALL Rangers fan agree with. That said, Gomez was turned into two solid assets in Gabby and McD, and Redden and Drury are no longer an issue (minor cap annoyances aside). Since I don't give a damn about Dolan's money, that lessens the gravity of the mistakes in my book.

Add to that the good things that the management has been doing, and where we are as a club going forward, I don't see why "excellent" is an unfair assessment.
It is not unreasonable if your talking about a few areas. IMO if your talking about his post lock out resume completely, then yes, it is un fair. He has been great with our prospects and not dealing them away. He has made some better UFA signings, and a few REALLY great trades. He has let guys like Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Stepan, Staal, Mcdonagh, and of course Hank develop into great players and give them the necessary time to go through growing pains.

However, contract wise, he still sucks. Not just Drury, Gomez, Redden, what about Brashear? What about Boogaard(God rest his soul) Patrick Rissmiller?

He has made a some good signings as well however IMO the bad still outweighs the good and that prevents the word excellent from being used with Sather.

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07-06-2011, 11:24 AM
  #219
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22 year old with 44 points in his second season is fringe??
I didn't call him fringe. I said fans of other teams might. Just like Shadowrunner is quite likely calling players 'fringe' that he's barely seen play.

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07-06-2011, 11:28 AM
  #220
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It is not unreasonable if your talking about a few areas. IMO if your talking about his post lock out resume completely, then yes, it is un fair. He has been great with our prospects and not dealing them away. He has made some better UFA signings, and a few REALLY great trades. He has let guys like Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisimov, Stepan, Staal, Mcdonagh, and of course Hank develop into great players and give them the necessary time to go through growing pains.

However, contract wise, he still sucks. Not just Drury, Gomez, Redden, what about Brashear? What about Boogaard(God rest his soul) Patrick Rissmiller?

He has made a some good signings as well however IMO the bad still outweighs the good and that prevents the word excellent from being used with Sather.

Exactly. You can't hold up a single slice of the pie and label the entire thing a success. If his job was, AND ONLY WAS, to develop young talent, then yeah...Bravo, Glen. But there is that team on Broadway that continues to be a bubble team...that continues to find itself on the golf course embarassingly early despite making the playoffs. Sather has done a terrific job with the farm...but has been horrendous in surrounding these kids with the type of talent needed to get the team to the next level. Until that changes, any job assessment of "excellent" is way over-reaching. IMO of course.

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07-06-2011, 11:29 AM
  #221
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Originally Posted by Shadowrunner View Post
Redden, Gomez, Drury = colossal blunders, but those are really the only blemishes on his post-lockout resume. You can't call small gambles like Frolov or Brashear "huge mistakes," because they didn't affect the club AT ALL long-term. The same goes for Kotalik, who actually worked out terrific thanks to Sather's trade magic. Rozsi was a fair contract for a UFA. In fact, if that's one of your gripes with Sather, you might as well stick a fork in 95% of GMs out there.
...Frolov was a gamble that didn't pay off no sweat on that contract it was only a 1 year deal, Brashear was a huge mistake signing wise besides being a terrible choice IIRC he was an over 35 contract...after all Sather had to go out and trade for Shelley don't recall what went back to SJ, Boogard (RIP) was another bad signing. Roszi was a terrible signing because Redden was signed at the same time, it was compounding one mistake with another.

Has Sather been able to turn chicken you know into chicken salad, in many cases yes and while recovering from mistakes is a great trait, one would think that a tenured GM would not have as many as Sather does...I think I had this in another thread...this is like driving drunk, totalling your car, not getting arrested and getting a newer model car with the insurance check.

I think we are all in agreement that things have improved, we digress on our "ratings".

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07-06-2011, 11:31 AM
  #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jersey Girl View Post
Not the point. First of all I listed 28 players, not 20.

Second of all, your statement I was responding to was this:



Well I just mentioned quite a few players drafted after the first round in ONE SEASON that are having NHL careers.

You can call some of them 'fringe' if that makes you feel better, but I'm sure fans of other teams would also call Sauer and Anisimov 'fringe players' right now too. But the point is that it's not as rare for a player drafted after the first round to make it in the NHL as you are trying to make it seem.
I was referring to players like Kennedy, who aren't even playing in the NHL full-time. But even if you count them, judging by the 2005 draft alone we're looking at a MAXIMUM of 15% chance (28 players out of 200 picks) of drafting a player outside of the second round who will have any kind of impact on the NHL level. We have 3 bona fide NHLers in the span of 4 years from the second round alone!

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07-06-2011, 11:32 AM
  #223
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It's all relative. Pre-lockout all you had were Sather mistakes without any Sather good moves. At least now we're getting some positives along with all the usual mistakes.
I think this is what many of us in the "non-excellent" camp are saying.

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07-06-2011, 11:40 AM
  #224
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I was referring to players like Kennedy, who aren't even playing in the NHL full-time. But even if you count them, judging by the 2005 draft alone we're looking at a MAXIMUM of 15% chance (28 players out of 200 picks) of drafting a player outside of the second round who will have any kind of impact on the NHL level. We have 3 bona fide NHLers in the span of 4 years from the second round alone!
Here come some statistics for ya...there are seven rounds of the draft. Rounds 2-7 have a total of 180 draft picks...30 picks per team for six rounds. So 29 (I left Sauer off my list of 28 because I was only listing non-Rangers) out of 180 is 16.1% chance of having an NHL career based on your small sample.

Four years of drafts equals a total of 24 picks per team for rounds 2-7...six per year. Based on your statistic of 16.1% chance of having an NHL career, four years (2005-2008) of drafts should yield 3.84 players with NHL careers. If the Rangers have THREE players (Stepan, Anisimov AND Sauer) in those four years, they've drafted BELOW average in the second round and beyond in that time frame.

See how statistics work?


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07-06-2011, 11:46 AM
  #225
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22 year old with 44 points in his second season is fringe??
Jersey Girl was not saying AA was a fringe player, she was making a point about the OP stating that the list of players provided were fringe, and that was his opinion and other teams fans might say the same about some of our players

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