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What Gretzky be as good in post lock-out era?

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Old
07-10-2011, 12:59 AM
  #26
Hardyvan123
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
My arrogance???
Are you *'n kidding me? You have the arrogance to attack and attempt to diminish Wayne freaking Gretzky with uneducated and un-researched opinions and guesses....my arrogance, don't make me laugh!
At least I'm watching these old games, at least I do my research, at least I come on here with actual fresh clues and insights to what I'm talking about!
Ya I'm sure most readers of your posts have no idea on where I would call you arrogant.

You would be surprised that I actually look at the facts and try to make an informed opinion and talk about the facts and realm of possibilities (along with probabilities and likelihoods) and the reasons behind them and don't guess peoples ages or their TV viewing habits.

I watched a ton of hockey in the 80's and I'm still waiting for the great breakdown on the defensive abilities and awareness of those 2 teams in the 82 playoffs you brought up.

Since I'm so wrong on the topic and "only talk out of my ass" I'm sure someone is going to back you up and let us all know about the great defensive qualities of those 2 teams involved shortly.

Or perhaps not.

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07-10-2011, 01:06 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by SaxMan View Post
Don't all NHL players production rates drop off after 25? What's your point? He was 31 when it dropped to under 2.

I'm still waiting for this to be explained too
Apparently, Gretzky is the only player in history that climbed to a peak and then gradually falls off after as they got older....oh wait a minute, we just described 99.8% of any players ever lol

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07-10-2011, 01:09 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by SaxMan View Post
Don't all NHL players production rates drop off after 25? What's your point? He was 31 when it dropped to under 2.
I had a quick look at the top 10 scorers of all time and each and every one of them had a season of PPG peak after the age of 25.

My point was that even though Wayne is the greatest player of all time his peak point production aged 21-25 was due in part to the perfect storm of circumstances that occurred then, both in terms of the league and the team he played for.

The original poster asked if Wayne would be "as good in the post lock out era" and my answer is simply no he would not and this is no disrespect to Wayne who is number 1 on my list but more of a realization of how much more difficult it would be for "any killed player" to score points in this current era than in the early 80's when Wayne peaked.


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07-10-2011, 01:22 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
I'm still waiting for this to be explained too
Apparently, Gretzky is the only player in history that climbed to a peak and then gradually falls off after as they got older....oh wait a minute, we just described 99.8% of any players ever lol
Read post 28 and look it up since you seem to think that i don't do these things.

Sure most players drop off as they get older but don't you think it's weird that Wayne dropped off quite a bit in 2 steps at age 25 and 27 since the league didn't change very much in your opinion.

Personally I'm not going to "disrespect" Wayne in that way as I understand that the league and his team situation changed somewhat after that age 25 season or maybe he just got tired from scoring at such a high level, it's possible I guess but not likely IMO.

the main point still stands in relation to the OP that even Wayne had a noticeable droppoff during his playing days at these times and there were more due to the circumstances of his team and league changing than his skills becoming diminished in any sense.

The changes in the league since the mid 80's and even the early 90's would significant impact his ability to score points in any way near the level he did back then period IMO.

If you think otherwise clearly IMO you are underestimating and perhaps even disrespecting the level of play and difficulty in scoring in the post NHL period.

Or perhaps it's something else, I don't pretend to have answers on your mindset as I don't have enough information to make an informed 0pinion.

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07-10-2011, 01:25 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I had a quick look at the top 10 scorers of all time and each and every one of them had a season of PPG peak after the age of 25.

My point was that even though Wayne is the greatest player of all time his peak point production aged 21-25 was due in part to the perfect storm of circumstances that occurred then, both in terms of the league and the team he played for.

The original poster asked if Wayne would be "as good in the post lock out era" and my answer is simply no he would not and this is no disrespect to Wayne who is number 1 on my list but more of a realization of how much more difficult it would be for "any killed player" to score points in this current era than in the early 80's when Wayne peaked.
I notice my latest replies are ignored - but #12??? on what sort of a list, and who are #s 1-11????

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07-10-2011, 01:26 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Ya I'm sure most readers of your posts have no idea on where I would call you arrogant.

You would be surprised that I actually look at the facts and try to make an informed opinion and talk about the facts and realm of possibilities (along with probabilities and likelihoods) and the reasons behind them and don't guess peoples ages or their TV viewing habits.

I watched a ton of hockey in the 80's and I'm still waiting for the great breakdown on the defensive abilities and awareness of those 2 teams in the 82 playoffs you brought up.

Since I'm so wrong on the topic and "only talk out of my ass" I'm sure someone is going to back you up and let us all know about the great defensive qualities of those 2 teams involved shortly.

Or perhaps not.
I never said the '82 Oilers and Kings were defensive juggernauts by today's standards.
I simply said that the play was not even close to being the pond hockey extravaganza that you keep implying it was in the 80's.
Guys were still back checking, picking up their man, standing up at the blueline and taking away shooting and passing lanes with positional play. There was not an inordinate amount of odd man rushes either.
A lot more hitting too, almost everyone finished their checks.
Another big thing is that players on offense tended to try and move the puck more towards the center of the ice and away from the boards because of how easy it was for a defensive player to get a whistle there.
You made fun of the game because it was the Kings and Oilers and neither of them were known for playing tight defense.
If anything, that only makes it even more telling. If two teams like that are still playing a respectable level of defense, what does that say?

The bottom line is the 80's level of defensive play is no where near as far behind as you make it out to be. Not even close.
Goaltending on the other hand....

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07-10-2011, 01:30 AM
  #32
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I had a quick look at the top 10 scorers of all time and each and every one of them had a season of PPG peak after the age of 25.

My point was that even though Wayne is the greatest player of all time his peak point production aged 21-25 was due in part to the perfect storm of circumstances that occurred then, both in terms of the league and the team he played for.

The original poster asked if Wayne would be "as good in the post lock out era" and my answer is simply no he would not and this is no disrespect to Wayne who is number 12 on my list but more of a realization of how much more difficult it would be for "any killed player" to score points in this current era than in the early 80's when Wayne peaked.
Yeah, he'd probably be better. Even at age 37, in the clutch and grab environment, playing with a bad back for almost a decade, he finished 3rd in league scoring tied with Bure, 1 point behind a 24 year old Forsberg, and only 12 points behind a 25 year old NHL first all-star team Jagr. If you don't think the crackdown on obstruction would have helped Wayne out significantly, I really don't know what to say. Wayne played in parts of 3 different decades, and was over 1 PPG every year except his retirement year. On top of that, the league has gone out of its way in the modern era to make it easier on guys like Gretzky. Yes, easier than the clutch and grab era, in which he was scoring over a PPG in his late 30s.

I'd like to know exactly why you're so quick to discredit the possibility that someone with his talent could make use of all modern advantages and rules in a way that would allow him to score well over a PPG clip in today's league. If guys like Corey Perry, St.Louis, the Sedins, etc are flirting with 100 points, I'd put 100 as Gretzky's baseline for an injury shortened year, forget about a full year in his prime.

And btw, #12 on what list?

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07-10-2011, 01:37 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Read post 28 and look it up since you seem to think that i don't do these things.

Sure most players drop off as they get older but don't you think it's weird that Wayne dropped off quite a bit in 2 steps at age 25 and 27 since the league didn't change very much in your opinion.

Personally I'm not going to "disrespect" Wayne in that way as I understand that the league and his team situation changed somewhat after that age 25 season or maybe he just got tired from scoring at such a high level, it's possible I guess but not likely IMO.

the main point still stands in relation to the OP that even Wayne had a noticeable droppoff during his playing days at these times and there were more due to the circumstances of his team and league changing than his skills becoming diminished in any sense.

The changes in the league since the mid 80's and even the early 90's would significant impact his ability to score points in any way near the level he did back then period IMO.

If you think otherwise clearly IMO you are underestimating and perhaps even disrespecting the level of play and difficulty in scoring in the post NHL period.

Or perhaps it's something else, I don't pretend to have answers on your mindset as I don't have enough information to make an informed 0pinion.
Don't you think it's weird that Gretzky only played 64 games when he was 27? He. Had. A. Major. Injury. At the time of his injury, in fact, he was scoring at a slightly higher rate than the year before. And realize we're talking about the 2.32/2.33 PPG realm here. A truly catastrophic drop from the 2.60-2.77 he scored at in his absolute prime... Decended from heaven, landed on cloud 9, and still scoffed at the mere mortals beneath him.

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07-10-2011, 01:54 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Read post 28 and look it up since you seem to think that i don't do these things.

Sure most players drop off as they get older but don't you think it's weird that Wayne dropped off quite a bit in 2 steps at age 25 and 27 since the league didn't change very much in your opinion.

Personally I'm not going to "disrespect" Wayne in that way as I understand that the league and his team situation changed somewhat after that age 25 season or maybe he just got tired from scoring at such a high level, it's possible I guess but not likely IMO.

the main point still stands in relation to the OP that even Wayne had a noticeable droppoff during his playing days at these times and there were more due to the circumstances of his team and league changing than his skills becoming diminished in any sense.

The changes in the league since the mid 80's and even the early 90's would significant impact his ability to score points in any way near the level he did back then period IMO.

If you think otherwise clearly IMO you are underestimating and perhaps even disrespecting the level of play and difficulty in scoring in the post NHL period.

Or perhaps it's something else, I don't pretend to have answers on your mindset as I don't have enough information to make an informed 0pinion.


...and my point is that there are other factors that are more logical and reasonable than some blanket "The league changed" crap.

Age 23 2.60
Age 24 2.69
Age 25 2.32 (Coffey missed 1/4 of the season, butterfly goalies start popping up all over the league after Roy wins the Cup and CS the previous year)
Age 26 2.33 (Coffey was traded before the season started)
Age 27 2.15 (Gretzky is a King now)
Age 28 1.94
Age 29 2.09
Age 30 1.63 (Suter Crosscheck in the CC before the season started)
Age 31 1.44 (injury riddled season)
Age 32 1.60

Now don't these points that correspond to his production, combined with him getting older sound so much more logical and reasonable than some league changing overnight crap?
The way the game was played DID NOT change that much in so short of a time.
Goalies sure as hell did but the systems and the players themselves didn't.

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07-10-2011, 02:03 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by RabbinsDuck View Post
I notice my latest replies are ignored - but #12??? on what sort of a list, and who are #s 1-11????
I looked at the career points leaders top 10, which where Wayne, Mario, Jagr, Dionne, Messier, Howe, Francis, Yzerman, Sakic and Esposito.

Mikita was the same (I didn't look at Dmen since their role has changed quite a bit more than forwards in recent times).

Recchi also peaked at age 24 and his age 21 season where quite similar but in both years he played with a dominant Center (although with Lindros it was only for 61 games or part of them).

Trottier also peaked before 25

Oates peak PPG seasons were aged 28 and 30.

From my observations the drop off age was probably a bit younger in past times and has increased a bit up until now (around late 20's for most players), although post lockout it might be reverting back. I honestly haven't done a study on it, it's just my 1st glance impression of it.

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07-10-2011, 02:03 AM
  #36
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And, of course, you have the fat Mario Lemieux scoring at a ~1.5 pace at the age of 35 in the height of the DPE on an average-save-for-Jagr Pens team.

Gretzky has always been known for dominating with his brain. Unless players have magically gotten smarter with vastly improved hockey sense, he'd still dominate.

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07-10-2011, 02:13 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Rhiessan71 View Post
...and my point is that there are other factors that are more logical and reasonable than some blanket "The league changed" crap.

Age 23 2.60
Age 24 2.69
Age 25 2.32 (Coffey missed 1/4 of the season, butterfly goalies start popping up all over the league after Roy wins the Cup and CS the previous year)
Age 26 2.33 (Coffey was traded before the season started)
Age 27 2.15 (Gretzky is a King now)
Age 28 1.94
Age 29 2.09
Age 30 1.63 (Suter Crosscheck in the CC before the season started)
Age 31 1.44 (injury riddled season)
Age 32 1.60

Now don't these points that correspond to his production, combined with him getting older sound so much more logical and reasonable than some league changing overnight crap?
The way the game was played DID NOT change that much in so short of a time.
Goalies sure as hell did but the systems and the players themselves didn't.
Once again you cherry pick my friend.

As I stated above in the quote you are quoting both his league and team situation changed.

I'm not going to look it up now but league scoring and the number of 100 plus point scorers also changes from year to year thus indicating perhaps the level and style and yes even the degree of defensiveness competitiveness changes from year to year, or at least in 5 year periods during some points of the NHL's development.

The fact that both Denis Maruk and Goulet (who should thank Peter Stastny ever day for his inclusion into the HHOF) both scored more points than anyone in the post lockout period are a pretty strong indicator of this IMO.

But i do see some progress here as Wayne's ability to put up points in a post lockout NHL would depend in part to the team he played on, the skill level of certain players he played with and even his health.

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07-10-2011, 02:27 AM
  #38
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Once again you cherry pick my friend.

As I stated above in the quote you are quoting both his league and team situation changed.

I'm not going to look it up now but league scoring and the number of 100 plus point scorers also changes from year to year thus indicating perhaps the level and style and yes even the degree of defensiveness competitiveness changes from year to year, or at least in 5 year periods during some points of the NHL's development.

The fact that both Denis Maruk and Goulet (who should thank Peter Stastny ever day for his inclusion into the HHOF) both scored more points than anyone in the post lockout period are a pretty strong indicator of this IMO.

But i do see some progress here as Wayne's ability to put up points in a post lockout NHL would depend in part to the team he played on, the skill level of certain players he played with and even his health.
That's something I have looked at many times in the past, and if you take the opportunity, you'll find that the number of 100 point scorers was actually fairly predictable the entire way from 1979-80 to 1996-97; usually 10-12 players, +/- a couple. The only real "outliers" were the low abundance in '86/87 (in which Gretzky's 183 absolutely demolished his teammates' 108 and 107), and the high abundance in '92/93 when everyone scored like crazy. So, the first pronounced drop was in '96/97, and I think we're all pretty comfortable calling that the early days of the "dead puck era", which requires no further explanation.

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07-10-2011, 02:42 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Ohashi_Jouzu View Post
Don't you think it's weird that Gretzky only played 64 games when he was 27? He. Had. A. Major. Injury. At the time of his injury, in fact, he was scoring at a slightly higher rate than the year before. And realize we're talking about the 2.32/2.33 PPG realm here. A truly catastrophic drop from the 2.60-2.77 he scored at in his absolute prime... Decended from heaven, landed on cloud 9, and still scoffed at the mere mortals beneath him.
I guess you missed it, I stated before that even if he was still the best offensive player in the league at the time, it was still a large enough dropoff to be noticeable.

Are you indicating that Gretzky was never the same after his injury at age 27 because this is the 1st that I have heard of it.

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07-10-2011, 02:42 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
Once again you cherry pick my friend.

As I stated above in the quote you are quoting both his league and team situation changed.

I'm not going to look it up now but league scoring and the number of 100 plus point scorers also changes from year to year thus indicating perhaps the level and style and yes even the degree of defensiveness competitiveness changes from year to year, or at least in 5 year periods during some points of the NHL's development.

The fact that both Denis Maruk and Goulet (who should thank Peter Stastny ever day for his inclusion into the HHOF) both scored more points than anyone in the post lockout period are a pretty strong indicator of this IMO.

But i do see some progress here as Wayne's ability to put up points in a post lockout NHL would depend in part to the team he played on, the skill level of certain players he played with and even his health.
Anything I say will be cherry picking when everything you do is some kind of blanket idea and you're not talking about 5 or 10 year increments, you're talking about 2 year increments and I'm sorry my friend but players and systems don't change that fast.

Lets try this another way that you might be able to follow.
What style of play, system or strategy today is going to greatly reduce Gretzky's effectiveness?

Game is faster....Gretzky seemed to see the game in slo-motion as it was, so now his "bullet time" will only be 1/2 as slow instead of 1/3 as slow heh. Is the speed of the game going to take away his time and space more than the 100's of shadows he had draped on him constantly over the years...I think not sir lol

Players are faster....Gretzky wasn't even one of the fastest players in the 80's, nothing changes. He didn't play a speed game my friend.

Players are stronger....Gretzky was 170lbs soaking wet, again, nothing changes.

Systems are more organised....who cares, this is Gretzky, he's the master of breaking down coverage, finding weak points and exploiting zones of soft coverage. Are these systems magically going stop Gretzky from feathering a perfect, backhand to boot, tape to tape saucer pass 40'...good luck with that heh. Is some system going to negate his uncanny ability to know exactly where the puck is going to be...c'mon now.

Players shoot harder now....Gretzky never had a hard shot, just an extremely accurate one and in today's NHL, vs strict butterfly goalies, accuracy is better than hardness. Wayne used to score on standup goalies that were out to cut the angle, top shelf. How in the holy hell is a butterfly goalie today going to do any better?

Players are harder to beat 1v1 now...are we talking about Wayne or Mario here? Gretzky wasn't a big 1v1 type of guy in the first place, he didn't have to beat you 1v1 to actually beat you. All he had to do was make you hesitate for a second to make a play.


So tell me again, what besides the better goaltending is going to significantly reduce Gretzky's effectiveness?
Seriously, answer these point for point and lets see what you can come up with.


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07-10-2011, 02:43 AM
  #41
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IMo, those 200 point seasons were due to the chemistry he had with his teammeates in edmonton. 170 points was his actual ability IMO, the extra points were due to having coffey's transition game and kurri on the wing.
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Maybe but Gretzky was still in the 180-185 point range after Coffey was traded.
149 in 64 games without Coffey at all (186 point pace).

It's really hard to say though. Gretzky was never the same since '91 and unfortunately, a lot of people didn't see much of him prior to that.
As Rhiessan said, Gretzky still scored above the 170 mark even without Coffey. And you can say what you want about his teammates, but his 92 goal, 212 pt season he was over double any of them. In fact, #2 was Anderson, with 105 pts. Other than that, no one cracked 100 even. I have a hard time believing these other players were to credit for him scoring an extra 42 points more than his "actual ability" when they were only putting up 80-90 points themselves on the season.

Fact is, Gretzky scored with everyone he played with, especially in his early career. Even after he lost Coffey he was scoring close to 190 points. He got traded to a team that was 4th worst in the league and he scored nearly 170 points, and he was nearly a 10 year veteran by then.

Gretzky peaked early. He had better teamates in Edmonton, which clearly helped, but I honestly think that the Suter back hit and age did more to diminish him than who he played with. I have a hard time believing that a guy who AVERAGED 180 pts a year for 10 straight years was really only a 170 point player, who just happened to be "playing above his limits" for that long. People have a fluke season like that. Its an outlier. They don't go an entire decade straight of overachiving - that's just called achiving.

As they said in the movie Gataca - no one exceeds their potential. And if they do? It just means you failed to properly measure their potential in the first place.


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07-10-2011, 03:21 AM
  #42
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naw, he wouldn't be as good. like derian hatcher, he was built for the clutch and grab and would be exposed in today's fast-paced game.

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07-10-2011, 03:39 AM
  #43
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naw, he wouldn't be as good. like derian hatcher, he was built for the clutch and grab and would be exposed in today's fast-paced game.


Errrrrrrrr.....

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07-10-2011, 04:29 AM
  #44
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Originally Posted by Hardyvan123 View Post
I guess you missed it, I stated before that even if he was still the best offensive player in the league at the time, it was still a large enough dropoff to be noticeable.

Are you indicating that Gretzky was never the same after his injury at age 27 because this is the 1st that I have heard of it.
Um... yeah, I am, but not immediately, and certainly not as big of a difference as the Suter incident in '91 (obviously), but missing that month at age 27 was Wayne's first real "set back", at an age (especially for the time) when injuries become harder to recover from. And in case your memory fails you, that was a knee injury that resulted in his consecutive MVP streak coming to an end; a fairly significant injury for any skilled player. In fact, that's part of what made his performance after coming back all the more impressive. He came out of the blocks firing, and kept it up all the way to the Cup and a Conn Smythe. I think the lingering effects of that knee stuck with him for a couple of years though, but I guess now that's me taking over your speculation role (I believe some of the games he ended up missing over the coming years may have been related/"tweaks", but we never really got those kind of details back before the "real" internet).

In any event, his drop in scoring should mostly be attributed to joining a new team, and playing with new linemates and for a new coach. His production remained fairly consistent for 3 seasons after joining L.A. (in terms of PPG, of course, since he started sitting out more games year-by-year after the first "big" injury), and until the Suter hit. Two (or three) clearly identifiable situations, whereas the number of 100 point scorers between the late 70s and mid 90s tells you absolutely nothing.

But seriously, for one who claims to have watched a lot of hockey from the period, were you actually surprised at the time that Gretzky's points went down a bit upon joining the Kings? And were you surprised when he came back from getting hit from behind like that (in his 30s at this point, mind you) and wasn't putting up as many points? Looking back at stats now has you convinced that something else was amiss the whole time you were supposedly paying attention to the finer points of hockey back in the 80s and 90s?

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07-10-2011, 04:41 AM
  #45
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I'm certain that if we had a time machine and had brought Gretzky in his prime to play in the 2010-11 season, he would have hit 130-160 pts. Depending on the team we put him in, but he would have been the NHL scoring leader in any team.

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07-10-2011, 06:04 AM
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So there are people who believe that the NHL in the 80's was a more hostile environment for offensive players than it is today? Incredible. Skaters were smaller, slower, goalies were worse, systems were less developed. Go check the goals per game averages. Teams had one good line, maybe two good lines, the rest were crappy players by today's standards - slow, small, or both. So that when Gretzky's or Lemieux's coach had the home ice advantage, he would send his star forward against these weaker players, resulting in relatively easy points for him. This is not possible any more in today's NHL.
I love how people say that Gretzky's lower production in the 90's was the effect of his back injury, and at the same time, they claim that the fact that players today are faster and stronger would not matter to him, because he relied mainly on his intelligence. Sorry, you cannot have it both ways.

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07-10-2011, 06:05 AM
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I don't know about time travel but if we envision a Gretzky born 25 years later, entering the league after the lockout and now being around 25, I think he'd be the best scorer in the league pretty easily.

Now totals are obviously even more speculative if such a thing is possible, but if Jagr could score 120+ in 2001 and Crosby was on pace for 130+ this year, you'd have to imagine a Gretzky would do somewhat better even.

Just envision how with today's methods and everything you could have Gretzky as a much stronger athletic package without sacrificing any of the hockey brains and vision.

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07-10-2011, 07:56 AM
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The bottom line is the 80's level of defensive play is no where near as far behind as you make it out to be. Not even close.
Goaltending on the other hand....
I think one of the reasons the goaltending is so much worse, is because the defensive systems weren't as good. It's easier to keep the goals down when you're seeing more bad angled outside shots and shooters have less time, space, and breakaways. A lot of old footage has a single player rush up ice and just shread through the defense, whereas I don't see that very often today.

I'm too young to have seen the 80's and the prime of the Great one, but I think it's almost a certainty that his stats would fall considerably in today's era. However, I do think he would still be the league leader and by a considerable percentage. I did see the tail end of his career and he was still putting up good numbers with less talent around him, worse health, and in the middle of the dead puck era.

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07-10-2011, 08:25 AM
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Yes he would be just as good.

Changes in the game around him (goaltending, equipment, systems, etc) would have him putting up between 140-180 points during his prime years instead of 180-220, though.

He would be winning the scoring title easily over the Crosby/Ovechkins/Stamkos pack of stars in the league right now.

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07-10-2011, 08:50 AM
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Whoa. An original thread?

Yes.

He would be as good. Stronger? Faster? None of that matters. As someone else said...the man wasn't the strongest/fastest player in the 80's. He wouldn't be now and it wouldn't make any difference. The puck has always, and will always be the fastest thing on the ice.

This discussion will pop up again in a few weeks. Except next time it will be someone saying that Maurice Richard was soft and wouldn't be able to hack it in the league today.

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