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Phillies' Baseball (MLB): Inglorious Bastardos

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07-21-2011, 10:44 AM
  #276
Jester
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
The article also said guys with a high BABIP would wash out of the league. Do you think that's because they're unlucky or because they can't pitch as well? It also doesn't touch on the phenomena of the knuckleballers.

As for the ground ball outs, yes they are usually easier outs. However, guys with great control force weak ground ball outs like sinkerballers do, but also force a lot of pop up's, the easiest out, and weak fly balls. That is something that is not seen a ton in guys with hard sinkers. If the sinker is up its usually a hard hit ball.

Do you think it's at least interesting though that the precision pitchers I listed all have lower BABIP?
Good stuff does not necessarily lead to being a ground ball pitcher, nor does good location. Fastball pitchers, for example, tend to be fly ball/K guys.

And no, not really. Halladay and Lee both have obscene control, but their BABIP isn't anything special. A 1% difference is not bizarre in the slightest.

You do see rookies tending to have rough BABIP which suggests that they are doing it wrong until they star todo it right. Of course, you also have folks that get a bit lucky out of the gate. J A Happ is a case in point of that.

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07-21-2011, 10:48 AM
  #277
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Yeah I realize holds are as important as saves because they get you to that situation, but you can't look at a save as black and white. I would think its a common thought that not everyone can close, and for some guys pitching in the 8th vs the 9th is a completely different game. There have been many successful setup guys that when transferred to the closer role, struggled mightily due to lack of mental capacity or whatever I don't know. It's not black and white to me with statistics.
Don't think that list is as long as you think it is. Reality is that very few guys are reliable closers over long stretches.

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07-21-2011, 11:17 AM
  #278
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I'm hoping we don't make a major trade. We can't deplete our farm system year after year with our aging group of core players. Worley, Brown, and Bastardo are our only good, young MLB players right now.

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07-21-2011, 11:33 AM
  #279
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http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/st...79032345366529

I don't know how i feel about that... I like Vance Worley but he isn't going to be anymore than a number 4 at best i feel. Hunter Pence is a good young outfielder who would replace Ibanez. It might be a trade thats worth it for both teams

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07-21-2011, 11:40 AM
  #280
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Originally Posted by flyersfan9180 View Post
http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/st...79032345366529

I don't know how i feel about that... I like Vance Worley but he isn't going to be anymore than a number 4 at best i feel. Hunter Pence is a good young outfielder who would replace Ibanez. It might be a trade thats worth it for both teams
It's worth it depending on what else they give up in the deal. It definitely wouldn't be a straight up trade.

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07-21-2011, 11:41 AM
  #281
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Originally Posted by flyersfan9180 View Post
http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/st...79032345366529

I don't know how i feel about that... I like Vance Worley but he isn't going to be anymore than a number 4 at best i feel. Hunter Pence is a good young outfielder who would replace Ibanez. It might be a trade thats worth it for both teams
IDK how I feel about that. Sure, he could just be on a hot streak or getting lucky, but all good pitchers have to start somewhere.

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07-21-2011, 11:41 AM
  #282
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I wouldnt trade Brown for Pence but I would trade Worley.

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07-21-2011, 11:43 AM
  #283
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Vance Worley is a nice arm to have at the back of the rotation, but he isn't going to factor in to whether the Phils win the WS this year in any meaningful way, and he isn't going to make or break their fate in the immediate future.

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07-21-2011, 11:43 AM
  #284
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Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
It's worth it depending on what else they give up in the deal. It definitely wouldn't be a straight up trade.
Add this to the Pence discussion...

Peter Gammons:
Astros cannot find requisite 3-4 player offer for Pence.. Likely staying.
web • 7/21/11 11:28 AM


3 or 4 players?! We're not talking Roy Halladay type player here, I would move along for that price.

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07-21-2011, 11:45 AM
  #285
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Vance Worley is a nice arm to have at the back of the rotation, but he isn't going to factor in to whether the Phils win the WS this year in any meaningful way, and he isn't going to make or break their fate in the immediate future.
You dont think Worley makes the post season roster over Joe Blanton? Assumin he comes back and pitches?

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07-21-2011, 11:46 AM
  #286
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You dont think Worley makes the post season roster over Joe Blanton? Assumin he comes back and pitches?
Sure he does... as a middle reliever. What is going to have more impact in the postseason? A middle reliever (with our starting pitching) or a starting OF?

If you're actually winning games in the postseason it's with starting pitching and the horses of your pen. If Vance Worley were to have a prominent role, it would be a BAD sign independent of anything he was doing.

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07-21-2011, 11:46 AM
  #287
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
You dont think Worley makes the post season roster over Joe Blanton? Assumin he comes back and pitches?
Blanton sucks.

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07-21-2011, 11:46 AM
  #288
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Quote:
Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
Add this to the Pence discussion...

Peter Gammons:
Astros cannot find requisite 3-4 player offer for Pence.. Likely staying.
web 7/21/11 11:28 AM


3 or 4 players?! We're not talking Roy Halladay type player here, I would move along for that price.
They might just be asking for the moon right now but as the deadline approaches they might start to lower the cost for him. Olney i believe also said that the new owners might want to cut all salary they can to rebuild the organization the way the want.

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07-21-2011, 11:57 AM
  #289
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Vance is great and fun too watch. One of my favorites right now.

But if Vance is the main piece for an All Star young, controlled OF...you jump on it immediately.

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07-21-2011, 12:18 PM
  #290
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Sure he does... as a middle reliever. What is going to have more impact in the postseason? A middle reliever (with our starting pitching) or a starting OF?

If you're actually winning games in the postseason it's with starting pitching and the horses of your pen. If Vance Worley were to have a prominent role, it would be a BAD sign independent of anything he was doing.
Yea I know all that, was just making sure you weren't leaving him out altogether.

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07-21-2011, 01:13 PM
  #291
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
You dont think Worley makes the post season roster over Joe Blanton? Assumin he comes back and pitches?
If you play all 19 games in the playoffs I think you need your 4th starter twice, and hopefully that 4th starter is Oswalt.

Jester, imo, nailed it on the head when he points out that Worley won't make much of a difference in winning or losing a WS this year and losing him isn't going to kill the rotation in future years.

I think I could live with Singleton Worley and another prospect (just not one of the good pitchers hopefully).

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07-21-2011, 01:26 PM
  #292
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Good stuff does not necessarily lead to being a ground ball pitcher, nor does good location. Fastball pitchers, for example, tend to be fly ball/K guys.
Good location doesn't lead to being a ground ball pitcher, it leads to weakly hit balls, a decent amount of which will be ground balls. It also leads to a lot of easy outs, such as pop ups.

Most guys are fastball pitchers. Which could possibly be why the major league average is around .300. Most guys pitch the same general way, and have comparable stuff. Maybe the average BABIP for those types of pitchers is around the .300 mark? While its lower for good precision pitchers, and good knuckleballers.

Quote:
And no, not really. Halladay and Lee both have obscene control, but their BABIP isn't anything special. A 1% difference is not bizarre in the slightest.
Halladay is nothing like Moyer of Glavine. He is more like Derek Lowe. He's a hard sinker ball pitcher first and foremost, and throws a variety of hard, moving fastballs. He also has turned into a strikeout pitcher as he's developed other pitches. I'd say he falls right in line with where a sinkerballer winds up.

Lee is definitely closer to those types of guys, but we've seen Lee get rocked multiple times because he loses his location. He's career numbers display that, as he's rarely been a great regular season pitcher.

He has been a great postseason pitcher however, and in that small sample size where his control has been impeccable he has a .263 BABIP. I'm sure in his month of June this year he had a low BABIP as well. Was it strictly luck?

Quote:
You do see rookies tending to have rough BABIP which suggests that they are doing it wrong until they star to do it right. Of course, you also have folks that get a bit lucky out of the gate. J A Happ is a case in point of that.
What exactly does that mean though? That they're not good pitchers yet, and then they turn into better pitchers and they're BABIP goes down? That would seem like support for pitchers having some control over that statistic.

Also, you still haven't addressed several of the things I brought up. The guys that I brought up that got by on extreme command, and nibbling at corners all have a somewhat lower BABIP then even very good pitchers, like Halladay, who pitch in a different manner.

Then there's the knuckleball throwers who have an even lower BABIP like the guys mentioned in the article, and Hoyt Wilhelm who had a .250 compared to a .276 MLB avg.

Then there's also the issue in the article itself where it states whether a pitchers BABIP will decrease or he'll wind up out of the league. Why would they wind up out of the league if the BABIP had almost nothing to do with them? Why, like you said, do rookies have higher BABIP's if they truly have almost no control over any of it?

According to Baseball Reference, Blanton had a .324 BABIP last year and a .376 this year. Halladay had a .294 and .309. Hamels a .293, and .268. Same defense behind them, same teams faced. Is luck really the only differing factor? I mean look at this year, a .376 is almost as ridiculous as a .147. Was he that unlucky or was he completely hindered by trying to pitch through an injury, and not as effective a pitcher?

I am not totally disagreeing with the luck factor, but it does not seem plausible to say that a pitcher has virtually no control over this stat. Do they have much less control over it than normal stats? The definitely do. Certainly they have little to do with the ball once its in play, but they do have some control over how it gets there, which is a huge factor in seeing if it'll be an out. The guys we've looked at that pitch in similar manners seem to have similar BABIP, and certain manners of pitching seem to result in a somewhat lower BABIP.


Last edited by Protest: 07-21-2011 at 01:37 PM.
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07-21-2011, 02:43 PM
  #293
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I trade Vance Worley for Hunter Pence in a second. All this talk about regression, Worley will certainly regress hard from what he is now. Also, they have about 10 guys in the minors with a better pedigree that could figure to be better than him. Hunter Pence is 28 years old, an allstar, an awesome hitter and an awesome fielder. Considering how weak the Phillies minor league position players are compared to pitching, JUMP ON IT.

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07-21-2011, 03:05 PM
  #294
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Protest, I suggest you go and read the folks that have researched this stuff and really poured through the data. Statistical arguments do not fall apart by noting a guy here or there.

Also, Halladay is absolutely obscenely accurate... So not sure what you have been watching. And comparing his control to Derek Lowe is bizarre.

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07-21-2011, 03:16 PM
  #295
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I say we steal JA Happ back from Houston and then trade him back to Houston as the centerpiece for Pence

Then again, this IS Ed Wade....


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07-21-2011, 03:25 PM
  #296
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Protest, I suggest you go and read the folks that have researched this stuff and really poured through the data. Statistical arguments do not fall apart by noting a guy here or there.

Also, Halladay is absolutely obscenely accurate... So not sure what you have been watching. And comparing his control to Derek Lowe is bizarre.
I never compared his control to Derek Lowe, I compared his style of pitching. Hard throwing sinkerballer. His accuracy is awesome, but he doesn't pitch the way guys like Maddux and Moyer did. His style of pitching is closer to a power pitcher than it is to those guys.

And why out of all that did you only choose to talk about the Halladay/Lowe comparison? And twist it no less.

If I had time to read a text book about advanced baseball statistics maybe I would, but I'm assuming you have so I'm still waiting on your responses to what I brought up. Including your own words on rookie pitchers.

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07-21-2011, 03:32 PM
  #297
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Halladay has extremely good command. His career BB/9 is 1.8, which is far better than either Moyer or Glavine. It's near Maddux level.

Yes, pitchers have a small amount of control over their BABIP. A small amount that is easily offset by random fluctuation from year-to-year. I really don't understand what this guy is arguing.

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07-21-2011, 03:34 PM
  #298
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Originally Posted by Protest View Post
I never compared his control to Derek Lowe, I compared his style of pitching. Hard throwing sinkerballer. His accuracy is awesome, but he doesn't pitch the way guys like Maddux and Moyer did. His style of pitching is closer to a power pitcher than it is to those guys.

And why out of all that did you only choose to talk about the Halladay/Lowe comparison? And twist it no less.

If I had time to read a text book about advanced baseball statistics maybe I would, but I'm assuming you have so I'm still waiting on your responses to what I brought up. Including your own words on rookie pitchers.
Whats the point in arguing this if you refuse to study up and choose to remain ignorant on the subject. If you want to discuss this, you will need to read up. Its not a textbook, its a few articles. You can become knowledgeable enough to partake in this argument in about 10 minutes. Instead, you chose not too.

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07-21-2011, 03:37 PM
  #299
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Originally Posted by Yoshimitsu View Post
Halladay has extremely good command. His career BB/9 is 1.8, which is far better than either Moyer or Glavine. It's near Maddux level.

Yes, pitchers have a small amount of control over their BABIP. A small amount that is easily offset by random fluctuation from year-to-year. I really don't understand what this guy is arguing.
Nor do I. We were saying Bastardo will regress cause he is 150 points away from the average this guy choses to argue that a pitcher can be away from the average. We agree that pitchers can be slightly away from it but no where near 150, closer to 10-15ish.

Whats the ****ing argument??


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07-21-2011, 03:45 PM
  #300
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Whats the point in arguing this if you refuse to study up and choose to remain ignorant on the subject. If you want to discuss this, you will need to read up. Its not a textbook, its a few articles. You can become knowledgeable enough to partake in this argument in about 10 minutes. Instead, you chose not too.
What exactly have I stated that is ignorant? What have I stated that would make you think I'm not knowledgeable enough to have this discussion? I've challenged the idea that pitchers have "virtually no control over BABIP." I supplied reasoning, and statistics that support that idea. I showed that it appears that the style of pitcher can have an affect on the overall BABIP. Finesse pitchers that rely on control and pick corners constantly look like the have a lower BABIP than the "normal" pitcher. Knuckleballers even lower.

"No one has done anything to comment on that other than saying go read, you don't know what you're talking about." Maybe the people writing what you're reading never addressed the issue because it seemed minute to them due to the fact that the majority of pitchers pitch in the same style?

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