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Phillies' Baseball (MLB): Inglorious Bastardos

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07-21-2011, 05:05 PM
  #301
Jester
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Protest, here's the problem: do you really think people haven't thought to ask these questions? Do you really think they haven't researched these questions?

That's the point. I shouldn't need to explain it if you really do care. Pull up google, do a search, and read what you find.

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07-21-2011, 06:09 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by Jester View Post
Protest, here's the problem: do you really think people haven't thought to ask these questions? Do you really think they haven't researched these questions?

That's the point. I shouldn't need to explain it if you really do care. Pull up google, do a search, and read what you find.
Not sure how I missed this in that article that was posted earlier:

Quote:
There is actually an ongoing dispute in the stat community as to whether a pitcher is capable of consciously affecting his BABIP. Brian Bannister(notes) of the Royals, perhaps the most stat-savvy player in the majors, gave an interview last year in which he revealed his efforts to improve his BABIP by throwing more strikes and getting into pitchers' counts.
If there is an ongoing dispute over what we're discussing, then how is what I'm saying stemming from ignorance?

EDIT: Here's another article

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/201...hat-do-we-know

Near the bottom is this open ended question

Quote:
Can certain profiles of pitchers have a better-than-average true talent BABIP?


Last edited by Protest: 07-21-2011 at 06:17 PM.
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07-21-2011, 06:31 PM
  #303
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Can it? Sure.

Much evidence of it? Not really.

Beyond all of that, what Bastardo is doing is simply ridiculously lucky.

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07-21-2011, 06:43 PM
  #304
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http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...itchers_co.php

There you go Protest, sample data on pitch location independent of pitcher.

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07-22-2011, 12:11 AM
  #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jester View Post
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives...itchers_co.php

There you go Protest, sample data on pitch location independent of pitcher.
So pitches that are high and tight, and low and away have a lower BABIP. And putting the ball into the inner quarter of the zone, even in the center of the plate, drops BABIP. It shows that the location of the pitch does matter because of the type of ball in play it usually produces. The author cites Rivera as someone who he thought of who is capable of hitting these spots, but also states that its something difficult even for major league pitchers. It does fit with the pitching styles of Moyer, Glavine, and Maddux though.

I also found this http://network.yardbarker.com/mlb/ar..._babip/5173636

It shows the difference in Beckett's fastball from 2010 to 2011, and how his BABIP has changed in accordance with his fastball improving.

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07-22-2011, 12:23 AM
  #306
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Originally Posted by healthyscratch View Post
Add this to the Pence discussion...

Peter Gammons:
Astros cannot find requisite 3-4 player offer for Pence.. Likely staying.
web • 7/21/11 11:28 AM


3 or 4 players?! We're not talking Roy Halladay type player here, I would move along for that price.
someone is going to overpay for him. Just like someone is going to cave in and overpay for Beltran. Someone is going to have a key injury, get desperate and cave in to acquire Pence or Beltran. Pence should be able to cost more because he is signed beyond this year

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07-22-2011, 12:26 AM
  #307
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Worley won't be the only piece moved for Pence are people assuming this will happen straight up? We may have to move either Stutes/Bastardo, as well as a couple more prospects. A 3/4 player is trade very likely.

We won't win ANYTHING this year without another bat. We can't hope a couple of our guys get hot at the right time, because it won't happen. Plus the Phils are getting older, and their time is running out. Washington and Atlanta will be running this division in a couple seasons.

Worley won't help us much in the playoffs either, like Jester mentioned. We'll roll the big 4 in the playoffs and everyone else will be thrown in the pen. Pence will be an everyday impact player.

Plus you don't know if Worley will end up like another Brandon Duckworth, Kendrick, or J.A. Happ (may be too soon to say that for him).

I'd do whatever it takes to get Pence on the team as long as that deal is based around Worley

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07-22-2011, 12:27 AM
  #308
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The key takeaway there is this, though:

Quote:
It doesn’t necessarily change the conclusion in most cases — with the exception of in-season defense for a player that isn’t changing teams — because whether luck or not, most BABIP variations are not something that predict future BABIP all that well, and for most of our purposes, that’s what we’re really trying to do. However, David is right to point out that pitchers can create their own luck, and I should have done a better job of clarifying what the cause of Beckett’s change in BABIP actually was.

It doesn’t mean I think he can keep posting a .220 mark this year, but it’s probably not accurate to say that it’s a result of balls finding gloves with regularity or other things that would generally be considered luck. Beckett probably has thrown a lot of good pitches this year, generated weak contact, and looked like a tremendous pitcher in the process. History suggests that this won’t last, but that’s different than saying it hasn’t happened already.
As to the article I posted it suggests that location matters, but it's a very tight window where it does matter... And BABIP plummets there (meaning those guys weren't hitting it all that often). On top of that if you miss there it's either a ball or in the extreme danger zone.

What that data suggests (and what Maddux actually talked about during his career) is that the real secret isn't control in rpthe zone, but pitching deception. The real drop off comes when you get batters chasing balls out of the zone (thus that guy talking about working in pitchers counts).

In the end though, it remains a very small difference on the pitchers end... The significant stuff is in the hitters and fielders, who can really swing the numbers.

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07-22-2011, 12:28 AM
  #309
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Went to Ryan Howard's charity dinner tonight. Cool stuff.

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07-22-2011, 01:11 AM
  #310
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Originally Posted by Hollywood Couturier View Post
Went to Ryan Howard's charity dinner tonight. Cool stuff.
Did you and your friend get really drunk in front of he and Chase Utley? Then realize they weren't drinking at all?

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07-22-2011, 01:13 AM
  #311
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sobrien View Post
Worley won't be the only piece moved for Pence are people assuming this will happen straight up? We may have to move either Stutes/Bastardo, as well as a couple more prospects. A 3/4 player is trade very likely.

We won't win ANYTHING this year without another bat. We can't hope a couple of our guys get hot at the right time, because it won't happen. Plus the Phils are getting older, and their time is running out. Washington and Atlanta will be running this division in a couple seasons.

Worley won't help us much in the playoffs either, like Jester mentioned. We'll roll the big 4 in the playoffs and everyone else will be thrown in the pen. Pence will be an everyday impact player.

Plus you don't know if Worley will end up like another Brandon Duckworth, Kendrick, or J.A. Happ (may be too soon to say that for him).

I'd do whatever it takes to get Pence on the team as long as that deal is based around Worley
I don't think people assume it was a 1 for 1 deal. I think the other pieces that will be moved won't be at the ML level. Probably someone like Singleton. Ed Wade seems to like really weird prospects, just looking at who the Phils traded to get Roy Oswalt was one example.

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07-22-2011, 01:18 AM
  #312
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Originally Posted by Hextall89 View Post
I don't think people assume it was a 1 for 1 deal. I think the other pieces that will be moved won't be at the ML level. Probably someone like Singleton. Ed Wade seems to like really weird prospects, just looking at who the Phils traded to get Roy Oswalt was one example.
I have a feeling we're still paying Ed Wade. With Happ, Myers, Bourn, Michaels, and awhile back Geary...the Astros are like the Phillies-B team. I wouldn't be surprised if the MLB opens an investigation if we end up bending Houston over for another trade.

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07-22-2011, 07:10 AM
  #313
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Originally Posted by Hextall89 View Post
Did you and your friend get really drunk in front of he and Chase Utley? Then realize they weren't drinking at all?
Sadly we did not. We're not quite Charlie and Dennis status. But on a related note, last year Utley was hammered. Took some shots of some crazy tequila with him. Since he was on the DL at the time he wasn't working he was just at the bar the whole time. What a guy...


Last edited by Hollywood Couturier: 07-22-2011 at 07:29 AM.
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07-22-2011, 09:08 AM
  #314
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hollywood Couturier View Post
Sadly we did not. We're not quite Charlie and Dennis status. But on a related note, last year Utley was hammered. Took some shots of some crazy tequila with him. Since he was on the DL at the time he wasn't working he was just at the bar the whole time. What a guy...
Thank God Timmeh doesn't write for the Phillies. Utley would've been traded to the Angels by now.

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07-22-2011, 09:39 AM
  #315
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I have a feeling we're still paying Ed Wade. With Happ, Myers, Bourn, Michaels, and awhile back Geary...the Astros are like the Phillies-B team. I wouldn't be surprised if the MLB opens an investigation if we end up bending Houston over for another trade.
I'm tired of this "phillies bent over Astros" talk because it's pretty much BS

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07-22-2011, 01:26 PM
  #316
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I'm tired of this "phillies bent over Astros" talk because it's pretty much BS
I think the Roy Oswalt trade no question was tilted in the Phils favor. Happ was a flash in the pan and I think will continue to look that way. The two prospects probably won't make it to the majors and if they do, nothing substantial.

Lidge trade looks a bit more even now. It helped the Phils win the WS, but now Michael Bourn has developed into a leadoff base stealing threat.

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07-22-2011, 01:33 PM
  #317
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Originally Posted by Hextall89 View Post
I think the Roy Oswalt trade no question was tilted in the Phils favor. Happ was a flash in the pan and I think will continue to look that way. The two prospects probably won't make it to the majors and if they do, nothing substantial.
And oswalt was a guy they would have lost for nothing with injury concerns (which we are seeing now). Happ seems like he can be an OK MLB pitcher for cheap on a rebuilding team.

I'm not saying the trades were bad for the phils at all, but it's turned into some retarded meme amongst phillies fans that the Astros have just given up their players for next to nothing

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07-22-2011, 01:35 PM
  #318
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Halladay has extremely good command. His career BB/9 is 1.8, which is far better than either Moyer or Glavine. It's near Maddux level.

Yes, pitchers have a small amount of control over their BABIP. A small amount that is easily offset by random fluctuation from year-to-year. I really don't understand what this guy is arguing.
Halladay has excellent command, but you're not understanding what I'm saying. Its the combination of command and style of pitching. Moyer did nothing but pick corners, I would expect his walk rate to be higher.

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Whats the point in arguing this if you refuse to study up and choose to remain ignorant on the subject. If you want to discuss this, you will need to read up. Its not a textbook, its a few articles. You can become knowledgeable enough to partake in this argument in about 10 minutes. Instead, you chose not too.
Well, I read some things last night, and it turns out I wasn't as ignorant as you may have thought.

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07-22-2011, 01:52 PM
  #319
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Problem is that you are making a mole out of an ant hill. Pitchers can move BABIP maybe .5-1% with what they do (Bastardo, the point of departure is 10-15% from where he "should" be and that's still a good BABIP). A good hitter, on the other hand can average 2+% better than the average (a good hitter hits the ball harder more often; for example Ryan Howard). Then you add in the final piece, the defense behind a pitcher. Put a good D with a lot of range out there and less balls will land/get through.

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07-22-2011, 02:01 PM
  #320
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Well, I read some things last night, and it turns out I wasn't as ignorant as you may have thought.
When I said it, yes you were. You lacked knowledge of what it was you were talking about. Whether you guessed/got some stuff correct is not the point.

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07-22-2011, 02:18 PM
  #321
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Originally Posted by BringBackStevens View Post
And oswalt was a guy they would have lost for nothing with injury concerns (which we are seeing now). Happ seems like he can be an OK MLB pitcher for cheap on a rebuilding team.

I'm not saying the trades were bad for the phils at all, but it's turned into some retarded meme amongst phillies fans that the Astros have just given up their players for next to nothing
The Oswalt deal was pretty awful. I personally don't think Happ will make it very far in this league, but even if he does turn into an "OK MLB pitcher for cheap on a rebuilding team" that's a pretty poor return for Roy Oswalt. Considering that there were multiple reports of teams like the Yankees that were shocked to find out that Oswalt was even on the market, it seems like the Astros could have gotten a much better return than they did.

The Lidge for (basically) Bourn deal worked out pretty good for both sides though. Phillies got a lights out closer that led them to a World Series and the Astros got a solid leadoff speed guy that plays above average center field. Even with Lidge's injury/ineffectiveness issues the past couple years its hard to argue that it was a bad trade considering it brought Philadelphia our first title in like 25 years. Him, Utley, Howard, Rollins, Hamels, and Victorino (and even Burrell kind of) are in the pantheon of "no matter what they are getting paid or how bad they get I will still support them" just because they were the core that delievered the first/only title of my lifetime.

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07-22-2011, 02:27 PM
  #322
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FINALLY!!!!!!

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Todd Zolecki
@ToddZolecki Todd Zolecki
Phillies activate Brad Lidge. Designated Danys Baez for assignment.


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07-22-2011, 02:48 PM
  #323
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FINALLY!!!!!!





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07-22-2011, 02:53 PM
  #324
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07-22-2011, 03:33 PM
  #325
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Wootness .

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