i just want to know how you guys think penner will turn out next year.
in my opinion penner will play like he did when he kopi and willy were on fire plus more. i feel like people forget how he played then and only remember how he was after the injuries, when he was playing with handzus and all those other old turtles. im predicting a 25-35 goal season from Penner.
He's working out under Tim Adams over the summer- he said he's doing stuff he's never done before, so he should be in good condition. Hopefully he keeps working hard and playing with a healthy Kopitar will only help.
He played well with Kopitar and Williams until they both got hurt. With both healthy and Penner here from the get-go of training camp, they'll be a very productive line. I'd expect 90-100+ goals from that line alone this season.
i wonder what the difference is between LA and EDM when it comes to the locker room and organizational environments. i wouldn't be surprised if EDM's wasn't that high or professional with their lack of success now for so many years. continually being a bottom 5 team year after year will drain anyone's will over time. i'm hoping this had something to do with his conditioning and play last season
Rather lengthy, but here's a bit from the conclusion:
A. Traditional Stats
On the first line, Penner's season equivalency is 24G-32A-56P, a rate that puts him 20th in goals and 21st in points among left wings for the '08-'09 season.
Over a full season, the "Horpensky" line is the 3rd most productive goal scoring line in the Western Conference: Marleau - Thornton - Setoguchi - 94
Hossa - Datsyuk - Holmstrom - 86
Penner - Horcoff - Hemsky - 86
In '08-'09, Hemsky suffered a .5 PPG falloff and Horcoff falls by .4 PPG without Penner on the port side. From the two-year average, Hemsky was off by .36 PPG and Horcoff by .43 PPG. Over the course of a season, that amounts to 30 fewer points per season for Hemsky, and 35 fewer points per season for Horcoff.
B. Power Play
Penner outpaced all other forwards for the Edmonton Oilers and the power play was most productive when he was on the ice. Only Ales Hemsky gets similar numbers out of his time on the ice with a man advantage. in 07-08, the Oilers lost Sheldon Souray to injury. The power play did not focus on shots by defensemen, rather it was a more distributed system amongst the forwards. Dustin Penner produced 22 power play points and a GFON/60 of 7.13. In 08-09, in a system where the puck was distributed to the defensemen, Penner's traditional production slumped, but the team was just as effective while he was on the ice due to his play low in the offensive zone.
Ales Hemsky suffers a .5 even strength goals for per game falloff when not on the ice with Dustin Penner.
Hemsky without Dustin Penner scores, at even strength, at the same rate as Richard Park and Blake Comeau of the New York Islanders. With Dustin Penner, Hemsky scores at a rate similar to Sidney Crosby.
Over each of the last two seasons there are only three forwards with a better even strength scoring rate than Ales Hemsky while Dustin Penner is on the ice. Those men are Pavel Datsyuk, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin.
Shawn Horcoff suffers a .3 even strength goals for per game falloff when not on the ice with Dustin Penner.
Horcoff without Dustin Penner scores, at even strength, at the same rate as David Perron and Pascal Dupuis. With Dustin Penner, Hemsky scores at a rate similar to Johan Franzen and Martin St. Louis.
Over each of the last two seasons there are only nine forwards with a better even strength scoring rate than Shawn Horcoff while Dustin Penner is on the ice. Those men are Jason Arnott, Nicklas Backstrom, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, Ales Hemsky with Dustin Penner, Jarome Iginla, Evgeni Malkin, Alex Ovechkin, and Corey Perry.
In 2008-2009, the Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky line appeared in 39 games together (this does not mean that they played the entire game together). During that time, the line scored 21 ES goals and gave up 5 ES goals. For the rest of the season, when playing together on a line without Dustin Penner, Horcoff and Hemsky scored 14 ES goals and gave up 17 ES goals.
In those 39 games, the Penner-Horcoff-Hemsky outshot the opponent 174-110 (+64). Without Dustin Penner, the Horcoff-Hemsky line was outshot 208-222 (-14).
When measuring scoring chances for and scoring chances against, Dustin Penner had the largest differential on the team, and outpaces those with similar defensive loads. Penner leads the Edmonton Oilers in scoring chances for while on the ice for the power play, besting noted power play ace Ales Hemsky.