Bogo's pedigree is ridiculously good.
There is so much potential there and IMO he can be salvaged by a good coach like Renney. Atlanta mishandled his transition to the NHL big time and a change of scenery + a stable/good coach + an older mentor ALA Ryan Whitney can only do this kid a world of good.
He's got all the tools and can be taught to be more defensively responsible, if this trade is a legit rumour and the Jets make the swap I for one will be very pleased.
There is a lot of Petry love on these boards, but IMO we have better D men in our system and he is replaceable. That, and Bogo's ceiling is MUCH higher.
Exactly. There is risk in just about every trade. This is a risk worth taking.
It actually seems like a reasonable exchange for both teams. I can see so many of us saying Gagner & Petry are too much to pay, but i can also see the Jets fans saying the opposite.
However, it would be one of those super risky trade for the two teams.
If Bogo reaches his ceiling and becoming a star #1 stud D man, and Gagner & Petry are just solid but unspectacular NHLers, then this would be a colossal mistake for the Jets.
If the situation reverse, Bogo is average and Gagner becomes a good 2nd line center and Petry becomes a high end #2 or #3 D man, we would all be calling for Tambellini's head.
If all 3 players developed into their projected potential, which the chance of that is quite low, the Jets still lose because a Elite D man is worth a lot more.
It's easier to be a Lose/Lose trade than a Win/Win trade. Not sure if both GMs ready for such big risky gamble.
It actually seems like a reasonable exchange for both teams. I can see so many of us saying Gagner & Petry are too much to pay, but i can also see the Jets fans saying the opposite.
However, it would be one of those super risky trade for the two teams.
If Bogo reaches his ceiling and becoming a star #1 stud D man, and Gagner & Petry are just solid but unspectacular NHLers, then this would be a colossal mistake for the Jets.
If the situation reverse, Bogo is average and Gagner becomes a good 2nd line center and Petry becomes a high end #2 or #3 D man, we would all be calling for Tambellini's head.
If all 3 players developed into their projected potential, which the chance of that is quite low, the Jets still lose because a Elite D man is worth a lot more.
It's easier to be a Lose/Lose trade than a Win/Win trade. Not sure if both GMs ready for such big risky gamble.
Much more of a gamble for the Oilers
Gagner is at least a 40-50 point player (15-20 goals/year) and at least potential to be that second line player
Petry is a #4 - #5 d right now with potential to be a #3 at max ceiling
Bogosian is right now a #3 d-man , what he becomes is up in the air
Exactly. There is risk in just about every trade. This is a risk worth taking.
If the player was Gudbranson/OEL, this risk should be taken... but Bogosian has seriously disappointed me and is nearly a bust. Why trade two assets that are moving up in value for one that is depreciating?
If Bogosian becomes another Barker... we've lost this trade big-time.
If Bogo reaches his ceiling and becoming a star #1 stud D man, and Gagner & Petry are just solid but unspectacular NHLers, then this would be a colossal mistake for the Jets.
^
The thing is, I don't think Bogo will become an elite #1 D in the Jets system. From what we can tell (which is really just speculation but its fun) he almost doesn't want to play for them. They burned him out. 3 coaches in 3 years, probably an ear full from management every once in a while about being underwhelming ... all that can weigh on a kid.
On the other hand, with a new owner and new GM they may try and resuscitate Bogo's development and career.
grrrrrr, so trinnnna is up to no good eh? Im not sure how serious to take this rumor cus i would love bogo
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlowbyBlow
Much more of a gamble for the Oilers
Gagner is at least a 40-50 point player (15-20 goals/year) and at least potential to be that second line player
Petry is a #4 - #5 d right now with potential to be a #3 at max ceiling
Bogosian is right now a #3 d-man , what he becomes is up in the air
Bogosian is not a legit #3 defensemen right now. It could be argued he is barely a top 4 guy with the way he's struggled in ATL.
If the player was Gudbranson/OEL, this risk should be taken... but Bogosian has seriously disappointed me and is nearly a bust. Why trade two assets that are moving up in value for one that is depreciating?
If Bogosian becomes another Barker... we've lost this trade big-time.
Well for one thing the Oilers wouldn't get a player like Gudbranson for Gagner+Petry.
The trade only "works" in this case if you have a player like Bogosian who has question marks around him. Players like Gudbrason and OEL still have too much shine (and not enough tarnish) on them to get them pried away from their teams without giving up a LOT for them.
That's why the Jets "might" want to let Bogo go for another questionable player(s).
I do agree that Petry is far from a sure thing as well and could be a bust and Gagner is Gagner. Most people have Gags basically playing the rest of his days as a 20-30-50 type of player and if you were to get a player that developed into a solid 1st pairing dman for that type of player that would be pretty fair value.
As I said above, I agree and am not really in favour of doing the deal either because I still think 2 young prospects is better than 1. If Petry busts you still have Gagner as an asset who is solid 2nd line center material and has been for basically all his career. He may not have huge upside at this point but he is very consistent (sideways development has that upside ) and he should be able to chip in 40+ points basically every single year (barring massive injuries) which isn't excatly chopped liver.
If Bogo busts you likely have a moody overpaid #5 type physical dman (sounds like a guy the Oilers sent to Hershey last year)... and if he really busts you have a career AHL player.
Like others have said it's a risky trade for both teams but if character really means a lot to the Oilers management they might be averse to doing a deal like that anyway. Of course the signing of Barker pretty much throws that theory out the window so I wouldn't completely disregard anything at this point.
Bogosian is not a legit #3 defensemen right now. It could be argued he is barely a top 4 guy with the way he's struggled in ATL.
I tend to agree. I watched him a lot this year, mostly because I had Enstrom on 2 of my fantasy teams, and I think he is probably a #4 on a cup contending team.
The trade only "works" in this case if you have a player like Bogosian who has question marks around him. Players like Gudbrason and OEL still have too much shine (and not enough tarnish) on them to get them pried away from their teams without giving up a LOT for them.
IMO roster players > prospects in trades. Gudbranson + OEL are prospects that still need a few years of work (unrealized potential) and thus IF they were traded would be for "lesser-upside" roster players. No way you trade Gagner + Petry for a second-pairing upside D prospect (i.e Pysyk as an example)... you try for a better prospect.
Bogosian is following the bust path. How many prospects like him regress and suddenly improve? I'd be okay with trading Musil + 2nd (potential for potential) for Bogo.
The way I see it, he/she has gotten at least 2 things, so I think she's at least got my attention enough to continue to follow her on twitter and read what they have to say.
That being said, rumours are still exactly that, so it's not like anyone should really expect any more than a couple to ever actually come true. If nothing happens from this, I'm not going to completely write off everything she says.
IMO roster players > prospects in trades. Gudbranson + OEL are prospects that still need a few years of work (unrealized potential) and thus IF they were traded would be for "lesser-upside" roster players. No way you trade Gagner + Petry for a second-pairing upside D prospect (i.e Pysyk as an example)... you try for a better prospect.
Bogosian is following the bust path. How many prospects like him regress and suddenly improve? I'd be okay with trading Musil + 2nd (potential for potential) for Bogo.
I agree... roster players > unproven prospects BUT there is no way Gagner (roster player) + Petry(unproven prospect with decent potential upside) would get you Gudbranson (unproven prospect with huge upside).
Freshly made lottery picks are still shiny and new and contain "premium" value in the eyes of most.
Ask on the Oiler forum here how many people would trade Gagner+Petry away for Gudbranson straight up... I bet 90%+ would say yes. Now ask how many on the Panthers would do that deal... I bet it would be MUCH less than 90%.
All I'm saying is that the shine has started to go off Bogosian because of the double whammy of personality issues + apparent regression in his game. That's why we are even talking about him in a possible trade. I have no real idea if he's actually available but I certainly wouldn't doubt there is at least a kernel of truth to the rumors at this point.
I agree... roster players > unproven prospects BUT there is no way Gagner (roster player) + Petry(unproven prospect with decent potential upside) would get you Gudbranson (unproven prospect with huge upside).
Freshly made lottery picks are still shiny and new and contain "premium" value in the eyes of most.
Ask on the Oiler forum here how many people would trade Gagner+Petry away for Gudbranson straight up... I bet 90%+ would say yes. Now ask how many on the Panthers would do that deal... I bet it would be MUCH less than 90%.
All I'm saying is that the shine has started to go off Bogosian because of the double whammy of personality issues + apparent regression in his game. That's why we are even talking about him in a possible trade. I have no real idea if he's actually available but I certainly wouldn't doubt there is at least a kernel of truth to the rumors at this point.
Excellent post
One thing I may add is that sometimes we see trades for certain players (Mike Richards) where we say how can such and such be traded (and apparently locker room issues and such come out afterwards)
I feel like character and work ethic issues are things that a team on the rebuild have to be on the look out for. I also think that from a fan perspective we may think a trade is off balanced then it comes back later that the player acquired wasn't the right fit (Pitkanen (quiet personality) O'Sullivan (character and entitlement issues).
I think in the proposed trade there's way to many red flags. Gagner your getting a solid character, and person. Petry is a throw in but at this time him and Bogosian are not much different in terms of development. Bogosian has not developed to what you would want him to be yet, and your putting a lot of promise in that.
That's part of the reason I don't like the deal. The other reason is this team can draft and develop d-man really good, and it will be the strong suit in a few years with Whitney, Klefbom, Peckham, Marancin, Teubert, Barker (?), Plante (?) -- legitimately enough guys to only have to worry about the 5-6 position.
With Bogosian its a hypothetical trade with more risk, Gudbranson you risk having more come into fruition with the deal and at least having some sense of fairness.
As someone else said you could easily have a #5D man with Bogosian - while I would add unless your getting a #1-2 its a pointless deal, considering this team has enough #3-4 d-man
Hmm...I was an 'early adopter' of Treenaoil's tweets, but this latest one seems dubious both in terms of return and veracity. I don't know what exactly has hampered Bogosian's development, but does he really bring anything that isn't provided now by our current crop?
Personally, I liked what I saw of Petry's game, the way he thinks and plays. The story has yet to be written on Gagner, though certainly this upcoming season will be a big indicator of his future potential. Bogosian...he's a big body, but doesn't seem to play that way? Admittedly I don't even know what his skillset is like. At 21 he's still very young, and a right handed shot (allegedly a strength of his, and certainly a dearth of those on our back end). Also, the hiring of Huddy in Winnipeg would seem to indicate committment to helping a guy like Bogosian get back on track. Can't see this one happening.
Gagner and Petry for Bogosian is an overpayment for me.
Gagner and Bogo are similar in that both have fallen away following promising rookie seasons and yet either or both could still break out. The difference is Bogo has a higher upside. Is that difference worth Petry? (who apart from RNH is possibly our best prospect) - I don't think so.
The most I would do would be Gagner + Chorney or Plante or Martindale +/or a pick.
What about Bogosian + for Gilbert/Gagner? What would the + have to be?
Would give us a d looking something like:
Whitney Bogosian
Barker Smid
Peckham Sutton
Bob Stauffer sort of suggested this week that Bogosian might be a player the Oilers could be interested in the the same way as he threw out the name Cam Barker a month or so ago so maybe there could be something in this.
If we did get Bogo I would see us having to move out a d man as I cant see Pecks or Sutton being a #7
Seems like a lot of people are basing Bogosian's potential on a stat sheet.
Keep in mind, he was put in a shutdown role(which he wasn't ready for) with a horrible playing Johnny Oduya and a pretty decent Ron Hainsey(who was also converted to a defensive minded role last season) for over 80% of the season.
He wasn't getting a lot of offensive(or PP) minutes and he was given all the tough match-ups with less than stellar D partners on a less than stellar team.
He doesn't have elite hockey sense, but he definitely has the tools to be a #2D.
He would immediately become our best offensive weapon from the back end(and yes, I'm including Whitney in that).
As someone else said you could easily have a #5D man with Bogosian - while I would add unless your getting a #1-2 its a pointless deal, considering this team has enough #3-4 d-man
How do we have enough 3-4 d-men? We have Whitney who's a more of a number 2 guy and Gilbert who would be a number 4 on most decent teams. Smid and Peckham are 3rd pairing guys who might develop into 2nd pairing guys and while one or both may be slotted in our line-up as a 2nd pairing defender, that does not by default make them one. Both of them have non-existant offensive games, neither are particularly great at moving the puck (in terms of skating or passing), and while their defensive game may come around to a point where they are 2nd pairing calibre neither is there yet. Sutton, Barker, Petry, and Chorney are fringe NHL players I don't think any of the 4 would get a lick of ice time (barring injuries) on any NHL team that thinks itself a legitimate contender for the cup.
Defenders and centers are two positions where a little abundance is almost never a bad thing and I know many Oiler faithful think our new defense acquisitions are going to be great for us and want to be optimistic till they actually play some games for us, but any look at the underlying numbers or even reading the opinions of the fans on the teams they left would give rise to a little healthy pessimism.
I'm not sure how good Bogo is I seen him play a few games in his rookie year and came away impressed, but haven't watched him much aside from that. Both of the rumoured players going the other way I like a lot I believe in Gagner and think he can cut out a career as a decent 2nd line center, I have seen enough of him though where I am fairly confidant he will never be a 1st line center or a high end-impact 2nd line center like a Kesler. In Petry I'm not quite sure what we have I think he has all the tools to be a very good defense man, but he's a bit older so he should be making his impact either this year or next if he goings to be something special.
How do we have enough 3-4 d-men? We have Whitney who's a more of a number 2 guy and Gilbert who would be a number 4 on most decent teams. Smid and Peckham are 3rd pairing guys who might develop into 2nd pairing guys and while one or both may be slotted in our line-up as a 2nd pairing defender, that does not by default make them one. Both of them have non-existant offensive games, neither are particularly great at moving the puck (in terms of skating or passing), and while their defensive game may come around to a point where they are 2nd pairing calibre neither is there yet. Sutton, Barker, Petry, and Chorney are fringe NHL players I don't think any of the 4 would get a lick of ice time (barring injuries) on any NHL team that thinks itself a legitimate contender for the cup.
Defenders and centers are two positions where a little abundance is almost never a bad thing and I know many Oiler faithful think our new defense acquisitions are going to be great for us and want to be optimistic till they actually play some games for us, but any look at the underlying numbers or even reading the opinions of the fans on the teams they left would give rise to a little healthy pessimism.
I'm not sure how good Bogo is I seen him play a few games in his rookie year and came away impressed, but haven't watched him much aside from that. Both of the rumoured players going the other way I like a lot I believe in Gagner and think he can cut out a career as a decent 2nd line center, I have seen enough of him though where I am fairly confidant he will never be a 1st line center or a high end-impact 2nd line center like a Kesler. In Petry I'm not quite sure what we have I think he has all the tools to be a very good defense man, but he's a bit older so he should be making his impact either this year or next if he goings to be something special.
I am talking about the future as in 2-3 years. Which I am actually fine with what management is doing in getting guys like Barker, Sutton when there drafting guys like Marincin, Klefbom, Musil, Teubert (acquisition).
I am not talking about Gilbert (useless when teams come on him physically), Smid seems to be writing the book on how to play with your head down still a 2nd pairing guy
Peckham (from last year) is a #4 guy he will get more ice time. I rate guys like Petry, Chorney much lower
I just don't understand all of this lets get that top pairing d-man when very few are available, and if so often means subtracting forwards to get it.
As for Bogosian; personally don't like the guys character. If you hate Gilbert's style your going to hate his even worse.
I rarely post here anymore, but I have to weigh in on this.
I think Gagner+Petry for Bogo is a bit of an overpay only because Gagner is a known quantity and Bogo's career could go either way at this point. The Oilers would be paying for potential. Petry makes it a bit of an overpay - I think that a 2nd rounder is a fairer deal. But probably doesnt get it done.
What I've found hilarious over the past few weeks on this board is the Petry love. The dude is being treated like he is a building block for this team. He isn't. He is an NHL calibre player, but on any good team, he is a 3rd pairing guy. If he over achieves, he'll be a top four guy that can be relied upon to keep the puck out of his own net.
He's Adam McQuiad.
This team needs D in a bad way. We are plush with forward prospects and young talent. We are seriously misbalanced right now. Gagner is not going to develop into much more of a player than he is now and Petry is nothing exceptional. Its an overpay but a good gamble to take if that is the price for Bogo. I'd do it and wouldnt regret it regardless of the outcome simply because I think its a solid bet that if Bogo improves, he is worth more to the team than Gagner and Petry.
A few things, IMO you underrate Petry's potential, I have seen nothing that tells me that he tops out as a 3rd pairing d-man. Secondly Adam McQuaid is a very poor comp for Petry, McQuaid is an intimidating physical presence which Petry is not.
Quote:
Originally Posted by dnicks17
Seems like a lot of people are basing Bogosian's potential on a stat sheet.
Keep in mind, he was put in a shutdown role(which he wasn't ready for) with a horrible playing Johnny Oduya and a pretty decent Ron Hainsey(who was also converted to a defensive minded role last season) for over 80% of the season.
He wasn't getting a lot of offensive(or PP) minutes and he was given all the tough match-ups with less than stellar D partners on a less than stellar team.
He doesn't have elite hockey sense, but he definitely has the tools to be a #2D.
He would immediately become our best offensive weapon from the back end(and yes, I'm including Whitney in that).
IMO it could go either way with Bogo, he could either come in and tear it up in due time or become the next Barker. I admittedly didn't watch many Thrashers games last year but the ones that I did see I wasn't that impressed. One thing that I could see intriguing the hell out of any club is that he had the best windgate test in recent memory and his power wowed a lot of people. The kid is definitely a physical specimen at the very least.
I've used JJ as a comp a few times. Jack Johnson went for 3-8-11 and a -19 in 74 games 3 years removed from his draft. Bogo on the other hand went for 5-12-17 and a -27 in 71 games 3 years after his draft. Both were seen as manchilds and you could probably say that both were extremely gifted physically but they may not have the best decision making. Ironically enough he was also drafted 3rd overall, so while everyone seems to like the Barker comp why couldn't he follow a path similar to JJ's instead?
__________________ Treat Others As You Would Like To Be Treated
Seems like a lot of people are basing Bogosian's potential on a stat sheet.
Keep in mind, he was put in a shutdown role(which he wasn't ready for) with a horrible playing Johnny Oduya and a pretty decent Ron Hainsey(who was also converted to a defensive minded role last season) for over 80% of the season.
He wasn't getting a lot of offensive(or PP) minutes and he was given all the tough match-ups with less than stellar D partners on a less than stellar team.
He doesn't have elite hockey sense, but he definitely has the tools to be a #2D.
He would immediately become our best offensive weapon from the back end(and yes, I'm including Whitney in that).
This is something that I dont think many know. When Enstrom went down, Bogosian started getting PP time and from what ATL fans said, he did very well and played some of his best hockey during that time. Bogosian IMO has potential but needs to be played properly. Over here, he would get good minutes, will get PP time and might actually succeed. On top of that, Bogosian is a Right handed defencemen that can shoot. The potential is there, he just needs to put it together and start playing in a role he will thrive in. A Whitney-Bogosian pairing would be pretty damn good IMO.
The way I see it, he/she has gotten at least 2 things, so I think she's at least got my attention enough to continue to follow her on twitter and read what they have to say.
That being said, rumours are still exactly that, so it's not like anyone should really expect any more than a couple to ever actually come true. If nothing happens from this, I'm not going to completely write off everything she says.
I agree. The fact that she has any sort of reliable track record keeps me interested. If nothing else, it's a loooooong offseason, and it provides entertainment, and promotes discussion. If she happens to report something that comes true even once more in the offseason I'll be sure to continue to follow her throughout the season and next offseason!
I've used JJ as a comp a few times. Jack Johnson went for 3-8-11 and a -19 in 74 games 3 years removed from his draft. Bogo on the other hand went for 5-12-17 and a -27 in 71 games 3 years after his draft. Both were seen as manchilds and you could probably say that both were extremely gifted physically but they may not have the best decision making. Ironically enough he was also drafted 3rd overall, so while everyone seems to like the Barker comp why couldn't he follow a path similar to JJ's instead?
If JJ is comparable then I want nothing to do with Bogo - because JJ has all the tools, but lacks the elite hockey IQ (still too aggressive for me and is a big risk taker). Do we want another Brad Stuart or Dion Phaneuf?
It would appear ATL considered Bogosian a Top 3 dman on their team, and in fact he played in all situations unlike Enstrom and Byfuglien (including being placed in the shutdown role by all reports). And this is at 20yrs/old.
Likewise, in his 19yr/old season he received similar ice-time and actually lead his team in ES TOI/G. Make no mistake, he has already been playing at least a top3/4 role for much of his young career, and on defenses that include some decent-to-good, veteran players.
Whether he was in over his head getting those minutes is a another question, given his +/- for example. That said, how many dman his age could be classified as 'legitimate' oe 'established' top3 dman? Are those guys available on the trade market?
Playing those minutes at that age on a non-playoff club, the fact that he has had a few struggles along the way should not be all that unexpected or disconcerting. Indeed, the level of responsibility he has been given at such a young age, despite having some good veteran dman around to shelter him a bit more, says something about Bogosian and what his coaches thought of him - that he is a legitimate top3 guy 'in the making'.
The question marks about hockey sense is a real concern though imo. Lacking it will certainly limit his potential and ultimately make him a disappointment who leaves you wanting and expecting more. But, given his impressive skill set, I think he can be a valuable player even with average hockey sense - just not live up to his 'potential' which was/is quite high.
Hey, if he was without his faults it is highly unlikely that he could be available Very intriguing potential pickup.
) and he should be able to chip in 40+ points basically every single year (barring massive injuries) which isn't excatly chopped liver.
still a 2nd pairing guy
Very intriguing potential pickup.
