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Old
07-27-2011, 03:46 PM
  #101
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Velociraptor View Post
I wouldn't pick Doughty right now just because his career is very short and despite having accomplished a few feats, he's a fine pick right now. Potentially ATD worthy in 4-5 years. I picked Kane in the ATD as a last round spare and because he is one of my favorite current players (yes, I'm a Canucks fan, but the guy is just so damn dominant)
He'll be ATD worthy in a lot fewer than 4-5 years. Look at when Phaneuf started getting taken in the ATD, and he's never been as good as Doughty.

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Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
seventies, there shouldn't be an auction just because the rules were unclear and you think that a guy is becoming a massive steal when in reality he's just a fine pick according to some GMs. I just dont find any of this as correct.
Do you foresee any situation where the GM picking 1st overall in the AAA makes a good pick, and that pick is not Doughty?

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Old
07-27-2011, 03:49 PM
  #102
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we could also leave Doughty out for this year and let him come back in then ext ATD-MLD-AAA season

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07-27-2011, 03:52 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
"3 6 7 8 9" >>> "3 6". (especially when the 6, 7, 8, 9 came with 8, 8, 9, and 5 votes and the lone 6th was 5 votes)

Patey has a career adjusted -91 and 0.65 adjusted ESGA. Also has the same adjusted ESP/GP as Erixon.

Patey was a good pick where he was taken though, obviously.
In your defense with the Erixon/Libett debate. No doubt in my mind, Erixon would have won a Selke, if he played a full season where he received a lot of votes for the Selke. He's a great defensive player.

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07-27-2011, 03:54 PM
  #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
He'll be ATD worthy in a lot fewer than 4-5 years. Look at when Phaneuf started getting taken in the ATD, and he's never been as good as Doughty.



Do you foresee any situation where the GM picking 1st overall in the AAA makes a good pick, and that pick is not Doughty?
Both points make sense, Doughty is an elite defenseman now, and barring a massive decline, he's well on his way to the ATD.

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07-27-2011, 04:04 PM
  #105
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Having Patey on our team, I'm not sure I could make an honest argument for him being better defensively. MAYBE a better PKer, but certainly not defensively as a whole.

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07-27-2011, 04:57 PM
  #106
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Yes he does... and a substantially worse overall resume!

Not that I'm criticizing it... if offense is what you're looking for with this pick.......
Susbtantiallu worse? Not likely!

Doughty has the best season. He might have the better second season. Berard has a better 3rd.... Then there's the next 6 that Doughty hasn't played yet.

Does one elite seaon outweight an entire career? I don't think so...

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07-27-2011, 05:07 PM
  #107
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So...what's the deal?

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07-27-2011, 05:17 PM
  #108
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
He'll be ATD worthy in a lot fewer than 4-5 years. Look at when Phaneuf started getting taken in the ATD, and he's never been as good as Doughty.



Do you foresee any situation where the GM picking 1st overall in the AAA makes a good pick, and that pick is not Doughty?
First off, look at when Phaneuf became a good ATD pick. Wait, he still isn't. Brian Campbell has a better career and he was a late third rounder here. Phaneuf is a product of being massively overhyped by the Canadian media and now playing for the Leafs, which automatically means he'll never righteously fall to where he should.

Second point, yeah he'll probably become the best first pick, however my point is you shouldn't have pointed out the situation at all whenever it was unclear in the first place. You should have just let someone pick him and move on.

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07-27-2011, 05:42 PM
  #109
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
If someone else wants to give up a guy that they already chose, then it's likely that they think he's among the best defensemen available. It's also a fair assumption that they'd have taken him at that point, if the rule allowed it at the time.

Yes he is available. No, you're not selecting him.



correct. And now that he's available, he has the chance for a re-do.
Was anyone but you even aware that he wasn't available?

By the way, the hfboards PM system isn't working for me. Is it like that for anyone else.

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07-27-2011, 05:44 PM
  #110
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Susbtantiallu worse? Not likely!

Doughty has the best season. He might have the better second season. Berard has a better 3rd.... Then there's the next 6 that Doughty hasn't played yet.

Does one elite seaon outweight an entire career? I don't think so...
Come on, you had to know I had an answer ready for this one.

Berard does not have the better 3rd-best season.

Doughty has been a #1 defenseman his entire career, in all situations.

Berard was a massive defensive liability before his eye injury, and even moreso after. He's a PP specialist.

He's been such a heavy PP specialist, in fact, that his TOI figures are inflated, and he was a never better than his team's #4-7 defenseman at even strength (which are all slots he occupied in teams' depth charts throughout his career), aside, strangely, from the last 2/3 of the 1999 season after coming to Toronto, when he received #1 minutes from Quinn. (But he became increasingly frustrating and was the #3 in the playoffs and #4 the next season until the injury)

Doughty played more minutes per game in his rookie season, than Berard played in his peak year (1999). Coaches just don't like to put Berard on the ice!

What's even more damning about Berard's icetime is that it was always for pretty poor teams with easier-to-crack defense corps. There's just no excuse for getting fewer ES minutes than Dennis Vaske, Barry Richter, David Harlock, Nick Boynton, Steve Poapst, Nathan Dempsey, Jon Klemm, Duvie Westcott, Rusty Klesla, Radek Martinek, Bruno Gervais, Freddy Meyer & Chris Campoli... and those are just the ones I am comfortable mentioning! He made the playoffs just three times (played just twice but he deserves credit for contributing to Toronto's 2000 season). Despite his offensive ability and being on these poor teams, his adjusted +/- is -59 because the team's GF/GA ratio went from 0.96 to 0.88 when he was on the ice. He played a ton on the PP (65%) but he didn't seem to make the PP very good - they averaged 9% worse than average throughout his career.

I do still think he would be a good PP option in the right scenario... he was on my list for available defenseman - at 90th. He just wasn't a very significant player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BiLLY_ShOE1721 View Post
So...what's the deal?
It's looking like you have Doughty for Brown, as long as there's no other action tonight.

Quote:
Originally Posted by vecens24 View Post
First off, look at when Phaneuf became a good ATD pick. Wait, he still isn't. Brian Campbell has a better career and he was a late third rounder here. Phaneuf is a product of being massively overhyped by the Canadian media and now playing for the Leafs, which automatically means he'll never righteously fall to where he should.
True. Good points.

But Doughty was probably a better player from the day he stepped on NHL ice.

Quote:
Second point, yeah he'll probably become the best first pick, however my point is you shouldn't have pointed out the situation at all whenever it was unclear in the first place. You should have just let someone pick him and move on.
Yeah, looking back I wish I could have just deleted that rule from the OP and pretended it was never there. Then someone would have drafted Doughty and someone else would have said, "hey, I thought he wasn't eligible because of the 300 game thing!" and you and TDMM and anyone else who didn't know about the rule would say "what rule?" and I'd say the same thing, and that would be it.

But I didn't want to be sneaky about it.

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Old
07-27-2011, 05:45 PM
  #111
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Was anyone but you even aware that he wasn't available?
I assumed that many did. I am less noob-happy than most guys, yet, Doughty was very much on my radar when I took Sargent. In my mind the rule had to be the only reason he was not picked.

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Old
07-27-2011, 05:46 PM
  #112
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Was anyone but you even aware that he wasn't available?

By the way, the hfboards PM system isn't working for me. Is it like that for anyone else.
Yeah it is like it for me as well.

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07-27-2011, 06:28 PM
  #113
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Come on, you had to know I had an answer ready for this one.

Berard does not have the better 3rd-best season.

Doughty has been a #1 defenseman his entire career, in all situations.
Just being a number one guy doesn't mean that much in itself. What a guy accomlished with his icetime is more important. Berard has such a stronger offensive resume that it outweights Doughty's couple seasons of better overall play.

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07-27-2011, 06:56 PM
  #114
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by Dreakmur View Post
Just being a number one guy doesn't mean that much in itself. What a guy accomlished with his icetime is more important. Berard has such a stronger offensive resume that it outweights Doughty's couple seasons of better overall play.
No. Berard was not really even a good player at the NHL level - he was an offensive specialist whose coaches were scared to put him on the ice in most even-strength and defensive situations, even over an absolutely embarrassing list of scrubs, some ex-minor leaguers who got only ever regular NHL jobs for bad teams thanks to the last expansion.

I totally respect longevity and that's why Doughty is only a good pick now, and not at pick #800 or whatever. That's why guys like Alexei Zhitnik, Ron Stackhouse, Gordie Roberts, Mike O'Connell and Jack Evans are clearly better picks than him right now. They played at a very good level for a long time. What you're advocating, though, is rewarding a guy just for "showing up to work" as opposed to truly exemplary performances.

"just" being a #1 defenseman once isn't great. But half of the drafted post-expansion MLD defensemen have ever been one. Even fewer have done it three times (15 guys, perhaps?). Very few have been top-5 in NHL icetime (Guevremont, McKenny, Manery, Tallon, Crossman, Sargent twice) Only Campbell has made the all-star team and precious few others have ever been close. None, of course, have been a top pairing defender for the winning team in a best-on-best international tournament. How far back would you have to go to even find an undrafted player who was top pairing on the winning team of a non-best-on-best tourney?

I can't think of a single drafted MLD defenseman who was only top-4 in ES icetime on their team once. Even Tom Bladon, who we talked about as a specialist a few weeks back, has five instances by my count.

God, this judging of defensemen by hockey card stats is out of control! Berard, better than Doughty? It wouldn't matter how many years he played.


Last edited by seventieslord: 07-27-2011 at 07:05 PM.
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Old
07-27-2011, 09:44 PM
  #115
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Where are we on the board?

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Old
07-27-2011, 10:31 PM
  #116
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pretty sure I've been up for a while now, so without further delay, Warroad selects one of the players with the best Selke records available, LW Magnus Arvedson

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07-27-2011, 11:52 PM
  #117
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What a guy accomlished with his icetime is more important.
Also, this is rubbish.

Sure, what a guy accomplished with his icetime is important. You know what's really important about it? It is a large part of what makes the coach put him out on the ice the next time. You can draw your own conclusions about what a player accomplished with his icetime, and that conclusion can be valid to an extent. But for the purposes of our evaluations, it is important to see how the coaches reacted to their play on the ice. In Berard's case, they reacted by making the decision that it would be better for the team if Barry Richter and Nathan Dempsey played more than him.

You're a coach. If Billy is playing five minutes more than Jimmy and Jimmy appears to be outperforming Jimmy, you'll probably give Jimmy a couple of Billy's minutes for a few games, and see what happens. If the trend continues, you might do it again, and then Jimmy, who is outplaying Billy, is playing more minutes, because you want your better players out there more often, because you want to win hockey games.

on another note.... GVT is what hockey-reference.com's point shares wishes it was. Berard had six seasons with a defensive GVT below 1.0, and one in the negative. I checked a few other "bad" defensive modern defensemen to see how many they all had:

Gonchar: 0
Housley: 1
Coffey: 2
Zhitnik: 2
McCabe: 2
Green: 2
Souray: 4
Aucoin: 1
Bladon: 0
Campbell: 4
Ruotsalainen: 1
Crossman: 2
Guevremont: 1
McEwen: 1

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Old
07-28-2011, 12:03 AM
  #118
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this doughty storm was definitely unecessary and took the attention away from the draft , something like this should never happen again that's for sure , in the middle of a draft.This was one slow and painful day for the MLD imo.

I don't blame seventies at all , it's just easier to judge the situation once you saw the result.

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07-28-2011, 12:07 AM
  #119
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by ReenMachine View Post
it's just easier to judge the situation once you saw the result.
yeah.

no turning back now. He's a mentioned undrafted player.

Keith Brown is now available and dropped. Drew Doughty "was" selected at pick #187 by Billy.

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07-28-2011, 12:07 AM
  #120
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, something like this should never happen again that's for sure , in the middle of a draft.
I don't think it was necessary either, but other GMs apparently felt differently.

I completely agree with what I quoted though - if the 300+ game rule is so bad that we needed a special exception for the only player likely to have been affected by the rule anyway, we obviously shouldn't use it again.

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07-28-2011, 12:19 AM
  #121
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I think using TOI/G against a player is as dangerous as using it to prop up a player. We all know seventies' opinion of Keith Yandle, but the guy played 19:33 ES TOI/G last season, good for 9th among D.. a mere 25 seconds below the guy in 2nd place. He was 19th overall with 24:22 (2nd was 26:14), and considering he never played on the PK (0:43 per game), I'd say that's awfully good.

I'd say it would be wise to be careful how these stats are used.. namely, provide context. I think seventies did that with naming the players who played more than Berard (and that was quite damning in and of itself). I just don't think that the most ES TOI/G on your team among D means you were the best defensively.. or the best at anything really. A lot goes into those decisions, including things that have nothing to do with hockey.

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07-28-2011, 12:34 AM
  #122
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I don't get this Doughty hype. His career at this point is on the same level as that of a certain infamous Capitals' Vezina winner.

And I'd take Berard 10 times out of 10 ahead of him.

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07-28-2011, 12:36 AM
  #123
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I don't get the Doughty hype either, but Berard was a pretty terrible NHL defenseman.

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07-28-2011, 12:38 AM
  #124
seventieslord
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I think using TOI/G against a player is as dangerous as using it to prop up a player. We all know seventies' opinion of Keith Yandle, but the guy played 19:33 ES TOI/G last season, good for 9th among D.. a mere 25 seconds below the guy in 2nd place. He was 19th overall with 24:22 (2nd was 26:14), and considering he never played on the PK (0:43 per game), I'd say that's awfully good.

I'd say it would be wise to be careful how these stats are used.. namely, provide context. I think seventies did that with naming the players who played more than Berard (and that was quite damning in and of itself). I just don't think that the most ES TOI/G on your team among D means you were the best defensively.. or the best at anything really. A lot goes into those decisions, including things that have nothing to do with hockey.
Yandle had a good season, there's no doubt about that. I wouldn't call it great in an all-time sense, but it was good, and the TOI is a big part of showing that (much more than the "hockey card stats", IMO). The massive gap between his PP and SH time shows what type of player he still is, and that type of player has no real shot at the norris, but I have a feeling that will change, as he is a more than competent ES guy now.

No, playing the most ES time doesn't mean you were the best defensively... (look at Yandle, for example!) but it's a strong indication that your overall contributions were valued the most by the coaches. "Generally", it also means you weren't bad defensively, because if you are, your coaches will keep you away from the most dangerous opposition players, and it's literally impossible to both do that and give you a ton of ES minutes.

I'm curious, though, about "things that have nothing to do with hockey"... what do you mean?

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07-28-2011, 12:39 AM
  #125
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I don't get this Doughty hype. His career at this point is on the same level as that of a certain infamous Capitals' Vezina winner.

And I'd take Berard 10 times out of 10 ahead of him.
suit yourself, haha

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