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Old
07-27-2011, 12:45 PM
  #1
DukeNukem
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The smartest fans in the world...help

I have a theory that the season, as far as standings go, is basically over by Christmas. Since the advent of the 3 point system per game since the lock-out, I believe that if a team falls behind even a little bit early on, it is almost impossible to catch up, even if that team goes on a strong run at the end of the year. In order to back this theory up, I'd like to see the league standings over the past few years at the 20, 40, 60 and final game mark to see if this bears scrutiny. So, where does one go to find these stats??
Thanks

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07-27-2011, 01:19 PM
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Buck Aki Berg
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Gimme a hundred dollars and it'll be on your desk by the end of the day Friday

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07-27-2011, 01:29 PM
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PeterSidorkiewicz
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Well that one year, we started off with Paddock like what, 17-1 or something? My memory sucks. Then the only reason we got into the playoffs was like a game of the Bruins vs. Canes or something and the Canes lost, if they had won we would have been knocked out. Or it was us losing to the Bruins, and the Canes losing to the Panthers or something on the last day to help us, like I said my memory is foggy.

That's all I have for ya, sorry.

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07-27-2011, 01:32 PM
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Kellogs
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I'm pretty sure that's been looked at before. I believe it's generally accepted that if you're not in a playoff position by the all-star break, that it's very unlikely that you'll get into one unless you go on some spectacular run or unless one of the teams in a playoff position has a monumental collapse.

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07-27-2011, 01:34 PM
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Flamingo
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Unfortunately, it's fairly easy to climb 4 or 5 positions if you're in a race for last place overall at the All-Star Break. The teams around you really suck.

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07-27-2011, 01:43 PM
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Lenny the Lynx
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I was trying to find just 1st half and 2nd half records last year and never got anywhere. You may have to do it yourself

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07-27-2011, 01:52 PM
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TrueGrit
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Ask the 2010-11 Dallas Stars about that theory.

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07-27-2011, 01:53 PM
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trentmccleary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeNukem View Post
I have a theory that the season, as far as standings go, is basically over by Christmas. Since the advent of the 3 point system per game since the lock-out, I believe that if a team falls behind even a little bit early on, it is almost impossible to catch up, even if that team goes on a strong run at the end of the year. In order to back this theory up, I'd like to see the league standings over the past few years at the 20, 40, 60 and final game mark to see if this bears scrutiny. So, where does one go to find these stats??
Thanks
Right here.

http://www.shrpsports.com/nhl/stand.htm

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Old
07-27-2011, 03:16 PM
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DukeNukem
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thanks quite a bit. Heck of stat site.

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07-27-2011, 03:35 PM
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Clamshells
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

This is probably useful for you. You can see a time graph of each teams odds of making the playoffs.

Buffalo was 8 points out of the 8th seed in January and had around a 10% chance of making it according to the graphs. They finished 7th.

The Ducks were also down below 20% around January and finished with a playoff spot.

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07-27-2011, 06:27 PM
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DukeNukem
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Yet another valuable site. Thank you.
In the last two years, there has been very little movement as to who makes the the playoffs after positons have been established after only 20 games.
On Nov 22, 2010, Philly, Wash, Montreal, Tampa, Pittsburg, NyR, Boston and Ottawa had playoff spots.
At the end of the season, the only change was Buffalo was in and Ottawa was out.

The year before, after 20 games in, it was Wash, Pitt, New Jersey, Buffalo, Philly, Ottawa, Tampa and Boston making up the top 8. The end of the season, Montreal replaced Tampa.

If we unscientifically extrapolate this, it means that if you can be in the top 8 by 20 games in, you have a 87.5% chance of making the playoffs.

Again, not being a scientist, last year the Sens were in 8th spot on Nov 22, at 10-10-1. If they can repeat that, and they have some hope early on with games against the likes of Edmonton, Calgary, T.O and Minny we could get to playing 500 hockey 20 games in and that gives us an almost 90% chance of getting into the playoff and well, you know, anything can happen then.

Just some nice thought for the true believers.

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Old
07-28-2011, 04:50 AM
  #12
Justice Beaver
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For what it's worth to contradict or add fodder to your argument, if the Anderson empowered Sens didn''t beat the Devils twice in a row they might have snuck in to the playoffs. The draft lottery ensued.
I hope that one day the Hockey Gods smile on us.

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07-28-2011, 07:17 AM
  #13
DukeNukem
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Bloody draft lottery. Here's to that not happening again. What I get out the stats, (and I'm loosely interpreting them for my own use), is that a team is out of the playoff a lot earlier than we normally think. And, if your team is on the fringe, say a couple points out as of Christmas, you need a dance partner. If your lucky, some team to collapse completely and then you can take their spot.

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07-28-2011, 10:38 AM
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SelleckStache
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It also depends heavily on when in the season divisional games take place.

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Old
07-28-2011, 10:45 AM
  #15
Senators Growing
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DukeNukem View Post
Bloody draft lottery. Here's to that not happening again. What I get out the stats, (and I'm loosely interpreting them for my own use), is that a team is out of the playoff a lot earlier than we normally think. And, if your team is on the fringe, say a couple points out as of Christmas, you need a dance partner. If your lucky, some team to collapse completely and then you can take their spot.
If you're not making the playoffs you might as well draft top five and get a strong prospect. No sense in finishing 10th-12th.

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