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Washington Capitals 2011-12 Projections

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Old
07-31-2011, 12:58 PM
  #1
ETP95
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Washington Capitals 2011-12 Projections

I wanted to do some statistical research on the new-look Capitals, so what I did is calculated their projected goal/assist/point totals by a) averaging their stats from the last 2 years for Caps players (offensive juggernaut vs. defesnive stalwart) and/or b) taking last years totals and slightly adjusting them due to what I think they can do in Washington for newly aquired Caps or players that have only played one or less yeas in the NHL. I also looked at the PP - taking the total number of PP goals from all the Caps and figuring out their PP percentge if they had around the same number of opportunities. I didn't look at the PK because I feel it can only get better with the guys they brought in and it's a bit harder to project statistically. So, here we go:

F1: Ovechkin(41G, 56A, 95PTS)-Backstrom(26G, 58A, 84PTS)-Knuble(27G, 20A, 47PTS)
F2: Laich(21G, 33A, 54PTS)-Johansson(16G, 29A, 45PTS)-Semin(34G, 35A, 69PTS)
F3: Brouwer(20G, 25A, 45PTS)-Sjogren(10G, 15A, 25PTS)-Ward(15G, 25A, 40PTS)
F4:Chimera(9G, 13A, 22PTS)-Halpern(13G, 17A, 30PTS)-Hendricks(12G, 16A, 28PTS)

D1:Green(20G, 40A, 60PTS)-Hamerlik(9G, 36A, 45PTS)
D2:Carlson(11G, 34A, 45PTS)-Alzner(4G, 13A, 17PTS)
D3:Wideman(8G, 27A, 35PTS)-Erskine(4G, 8A, 12PTS)

G1: Vokoun(2.36GAA, 0.931SP)
G2: Neuvirth(2.41GAA, 0.920SP)

Now let`s compare:

WAS-F1: 226PTS VAN-F1: 246PTS
WAS-F2: 168PTS VAN-F2: 162PTS
WAS-F3: 110PTS VAN-F3: 88PTS
WAS-F4: 80PTS VAN-F4: 55PTS

WAS-D1: 105PTS VAN-D1: 83PTS
WAS-D2: 62PTS VAN-D2: 45PTS
WAS-D3: 47PTS VAN-D3: 29PTS

WAS-G1: 2.36GAA/0.931SP VAN-G1: 2.11GAA/0.928SP
WAS-G2: 2.41GAA/0.920SP VAN-G2: 2.23GAA/0.929SP

WAS-Total Goals: 300 VAN-Total Goals: 262
WAS-PP Goals: 85 VAN- PP Goals: 72
WAS-PP Percentage: 28% VAN-PP Percentage: 24%

This new Caps team looks really good if they can balance defense and offense and if everyone gels quickly. It looks like our first line might not put up quite as many points as Vancouver's did last year, but we have way more scoring depth up front, along with a higher scoring D. Our goaltending might not be as statistically good as the Canucks last year, but I believe it should be close. What do you think? Will Ovie score more goals? Will Sjogren get more points? Will Green get as many goals and points as I projected? Will our goaltenders be better than those stats? Let me know your thoughts on this lineup and the stats I projected.

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07-31-2011, 02:10 PM
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Lots of issues all around. You're averaging a caps team that played a run and gun style and ripped the league to shreds with a caps team that was one of the most offensively inept teams in the league. All signs point to Boudreau continuing to "coach" his defensive style and doing jack about the powerplay, so you can expect numbers close to last year's. Also Brouwer and Ward got their numbers supporting more offensive players, so you can probably safely take 10-15 points from each of them if they're gonna be centered by Sjogren on the 3rd line. Knuble most likely will regress slightly to around a 20-15 form and your prediction for a 3rd pairing defenseman to get 35 points seems beyond optimistic. Hamrlik I think we'd be lucky to get 30 points from at this stage.

You're having this team score 300 goals, which barring a completely unforseen coaching adjustment (and everyone bringing it) is not going to happen.

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07-31-2011, 02:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Lots of issues all around. You're averaging a caps team that played a run and gun style and ripped the league to shreds with a caps team that was one of the most offensively inept teams in the league. All signs point to Boudreau continuing to "coach" his defensive style and doing jack about the powerplay, so you can expect numbers close to last year's. Also Brouwer and Ward got their numbers supporting more offensive players, so you can probably safely take 10-15 points from each of them if they're gonna be centered by Sjogren on the 3rd line. Knuble most likely will regress slightly to around a 20-15 form and your prediction for a 3rd pairing defenseman to get 35 points seems beyond optimistic. Hamrlik I think we'd be lucky to get 30 points from at this stage.

You're having this team score 300 goals, which barring a completely unforseen coaching adjustment (and everyone bringing it) is not going to happen.
Okay, so maybe the goal total was a bit high, but it should be a lot higher than last year because they have a better team and the star players will have bounce back years. As for Brouwer and Ward, Brouwer played around the 2nd/3rd line in Chicago so he should be able to put up around the same number of points in DC as he'll prolly get some time on the top line. And Ward "got their numbers supporting more offensive players" ?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?! Nashville is one of the worst offensive teams in the league, how can you say that?!?!?!?! He'll be playing with more offensively gifted players in DC (possible time on 1st and 2nd line) so he should be able to put up way better numbers than on the Preds. Knuble hasn't shown too many signs of slowing down, so he should be able to get around 25 goals on the top line with PP duty. And Wideman and Hamerlik have the potential to get that many points because they will get PP time and have the opportunity to move up the lineup if needed. This team should do better in almost every category than the Nucks last year, they're that much better.

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07-31-2011, 03:13 PM
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Okay, new numbers because everyone seems to disagree with my original ones. From the insight of many people, I give you round 2:

F1: Ovechkin(52G, 56A, 108PTS)-Backstrom(26G, 62A, 88PTS)-Knuble(22G, 20A, 42PTS)
F2: Laich(21G, 33A, 54PTS)-Johansson(16G, 29A, 45PTS)-Semin(34G, 35A, 69PTS)
F3: Brouwer(18G, 25A, 43PTS)-Sjogren(8G, 15A, 23PTS)-Ward(15G, 25A, 40PTS)
F4:Chimera(7G, 13A, 20PTS)-Halpern(12G, 17A, 29PTS)-Hendricks(8G, 16A, 24PTS)

D1:Green(17G, 40A, 57PTS)-Hamerlik(7G, 28A, 35PTS)
D2:Carlson(11G, 34A, 45PTS)-Alzner(4G, 13A, 17PTS)
D3:Wideman(5G, 22A, 27PTS)-Erskine(4G, 8A, 12PTS)

G1: Vokoun(2.36GAA, 0.931SP)
G2: Neuvirth(2.41GAA, 0.920SP)

Total Goals: 287

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08-01-2011, 09:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ETP95 View Post
Okay, new numbers because everyone seems to disagree with my original ones. From the insight of many people, I give you round 2:

F1: Ovechkin(52G, 56A, 108PTS)-Backstrom(26G, 62A, 88PTS)-Knuble(22G, 20A, 42PTS)
F2: Laich(21G, 33A, 54PTS)-Johansson(16G, 29A, 45PTS)-Semin(34G, 35A, 69PTS)
F3: Brouwer(18G, 25A, 43PTS)-Sjogren(8G, 15A, 23PTS)-Ward(15G, 25A, 40PTS)
F4:Chimera(7G, 13A, 20PTS)-Halpern(12G, 17A, 29PTS)-Hendricks(8G, 16A, 24PTS)

D1:Green(17G, 40A, 57PTS)-Hamerlik(7G, 28A, 35PTS)
D2:Carlson(11G, 34A, 45PTS)-Alzner(4G, 13A, 17PTS)
D3:Wideman(5G, 22A, 27PTS)-Erskine(4G, 8A, 12PTS)

G1: Vokoun(2.36GAA, 0.931SP)
G2: Neuvirth(2.41GAA, 0.920SP)

Total Goals: 287
Only one person besides you had even posted in the thread. I wouldn't exactly call that "everyone". And the person who posted... not really the first that comes to my mind when the words "objectivity" and "Boudreau" are used together.

That said, I do think the first numbers were a bit "homerish". The goalies probably won't put up that high of a save percentage unless the Caps stick to the "defensive" style, in which case the offensive numbers will suffer drastically (if last season is any indication). Yes, the "defensive style" was an adjustment to the offensive slump, but it's not like they did anything afterward to prove they could stop playing that game.

IMHO the numbers for the defensemen are too high across the board, and I think the first three lines have the potential to get to where you project, but the fourth line probably won't. Schultz is completely missing from your roster (optimism there too? ). I think the third line is the most difficult to project, since none of them have ever played together and we just don't know what we're getting out of them. It's also entirely possible we could see Eakin or Perreault instead of Sjogren (and probably will over the course of the year), which would change things quite a bit.

Small nit: Ovechkin's getting 56 assists and his linemates are only putting up 48 combined goals. I know it's based on an average, but I doubt that can happen, even if he assists on goals from other lines/defensemen.

One off-topic bone: never "revise" your projections if they're based on calculations (unless the calculations were wrong). That says to me that either you used the wrong calculations, or you didn't really have that much confidence in your algorithm.

Pretty good attempt overall, although I'm not certain if you analyzed the numbers yourself after calculating them, or just plunked them down. It's certainly better than anything I've come up with, and frankly I don't know if I will spend the time on such a projection (now that I've said that, it's basically guaranteed that I'll do 3 or 4).

My personal hope (not projection): 40G from Ovechkin, 20G from Knuble (if those two happen it means Backstrom has returned to form), 75G from 2nd line, 50G from 3rd line (rotating in and out of the top 2 lines), 25G from 4th line, 15G each from Green/Carlson, .930 or higher for Vokoun, all defensemen +.

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08-01-2011, 09:29 AM
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Only one person besides you had even posted in the thread. I wouldn't exactly call that "everyone". And the person who posted... not really the first that comes to my mind when the words "objectivity" and "Boudreau" are used together.
I laughed.

This season can't get here soon enough.

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08-01-2011, 11:13 AM
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I laughed.

This season can't get here soon enough.
Agreed.

My bold projections for the upcoming season:

Ovechkin scores at least 3 goals.
Vokoun stops at least 14 shots.
People complain all season long regardless of the teams performance.

It's gonna be a good one.

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08-01-2011, 01:05 PM
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Agreed.

My bold projections for the upcoming season:

Ovechkin scores at least 3 goals.
Vokoun stops at least 14 shots.
People complain all season long regardless of the teams performance.

It's gonna be a good one.
My bold predication for next year…Shultz scores another 180ft.+ goal!

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08-01-2011, 01:44 PM
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On the bright side, it's not Greenberg's "monte carlo machine" doing the prediction...

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08-01-2011, 03:33 PM
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I know Sjogren is the chosen one to take us to the cup and the future captain of this team and all but if you switch him with Halpern on your list (OP) and change Green/Hamrlik to the second pairing and Alzner/Carlson to the 1st you've got exactly what I'm expecting next year, and a hell of a roster!

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08-01-2011, 06:45 PM
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I don't know why Sjogren is already getting mocked, he's done nothing but look good so far, and I'm personally excited to see him play, based on his skill set. I don't really knock him as a potential contributor. I get that some people expect too much of him, I just feel like he's going to attract a lot of unwarranted scorn because of it.

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08-01-2011, 07:42 PM
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sjogren is being mocked because he was signed by mcphee.

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08-01-2011, 07:56 PM
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Sjogren is being mocked because some people are too afraid of being let down again to get their hopes up. So they just shut down everything positive.

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08-01-2011, 09:45 PM
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My name says it all....

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08-02-2011, 12:11 AM
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Sjogren does have high expectations as I keep hearing he's the best grinder outside of the NHL.

If his scouting report is accurate our 3rd line will do some serious damage.

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08-02-2011, 12:18 AM
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I may as well make a bold prediction. Semin cracks 80 points. Book it.

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08-02-2011, 12:53 AM
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As long as we're on bold predictions, I'll make one.

Johansson gets over 20 points.

In the playoffs.

Damn I hope I'm right.

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08-02-2011, 01:16 AM
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Previous Usernames: CapitalsCup2010



No offense meant, just seemed to easy to pass up. Especially referencing THAT year.

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08-02-2011, 03:56 AM
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No offense meant, just seemed to easy to pass up. Especially referencing THAT year.
Not saying anything everyone doesn't already know around here.

Welcome to the boards.

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08-02-2011, 09:55 AM
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Sjogren does have high expectations as I keep hearing he's the best grinder outside of the NHL.

If his scouting report is accurate our 3rd line will do some serious damage.
I have to admit I am very excited to see Sjogren play but am tempering any offensive expectations and really can't see anyone just penciling him in as the 3rd line center since thats a pretty vital role.

I've seen too many "the best player outside the NHL" type guys come in and flop. Dopita, the "other" Peter Sykora, Brunnstrom, the "monster" (altho he has had some limited success so far) etc.

I hope he at least locks down a 4th line role if he is as physical as they say he is. The more grit in the lineup the better in my book.

But I see Brooks Laich as our 3rd line center.

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08-02-2011, 03:57 PM
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we will get to see a lot of combinations this season. 90 will get time at 1c, 2c and 3c. halpern will play both 3 and 4c. laich will play 2c and 3c and 2lw. sjogren probably 2, 3 and 4c. eakin and perreault will get some games.

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08-02-2011, 04:01 PM
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Originally Posted by ChibiPooky View Post
Sjogren is being mocked because some people are too afraid of being let down again to get their hopes up. So they just shut down everything positive.
I dunno. There is something about this roster that seems lacking to me. A lot of guys will have to have career years or big improvements over last year for this team to do something. But I guess Boston had an off year in 09-10 so maybe.

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08-02-2011, 10:58 PM
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I dunno. There is something about this roster that seems lacking to me. A lot of guys will have to have career years or big improvements over last year for this team to do something. But I guess Boston had an off year in 09-10 so maybe.
They don't need career years, they just need consistency (in the playoffs) and hard work.

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08-02-2011, 11:14 PM
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They don't need career years, they just need consistency (in the playoffs) and hard work and career years.

Now that's a plan I can get behind.

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08-03-2011, 02:52 PM
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Vokoun will finally have the ability to put up Vezina worthy numbers (yes, including wins)

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