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Vancouver - NJD - Parise (Trade Deadline)

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Old
07-31-2011, 07:55 PM
  #76
NFITO
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Originally Posted by OnlyTheBrave View Post
Ain't that the truth.



Deadline deals for players of Parise's caliber would fetch a ridiculous return. If you are trying to get Parise and you are a contender, you are mortgaging the future to do it, big time.

Not many teams can do that, but if a GM wants Parise, it's what has to be done.
This is so incorrect. Deadline deals of contracts of Parise's calibre do not return any more than deadline deals of past star players hitting UFA have returned in the past.

But I'll let you convince me otherwise. Provide examples of deadline deals that have returned "a ridiculous return" for a rental player. I've brought up several examples already. Can you provide ONE example to support your claim here. Just one trade that has ever happened at or near the deadline for any player - star, superstar, generational talent - that has returned "a ridiculous return" where a team has "mortgaged their future" for any impending UFA. You guys seem so sure about this that surely there is some trade in history which will support your claim?

Anyone?

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07-31-2011, 08:00 PM
  #77
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
This is so incorrect. Deadline deals of contracts of Parise's calibre do not return any more than deadline deals of past star players hitting UFA have returned in the past.

But I'll let you convince me otherwise. Provide examples of deadline deals that have returned "a ridiculous return" for a rental player. I've brought up several examples already. Can you provide ONE example to support your claim here. Just one trade that has ever happened at or near the deadline for any player - star, superstar, generational talent - that has returned "a ridiculous return" where a team has "mortgaged their future" for any impending UFA. You guys seem so sure about this that surely there is some trade in history which will support your claim?

Anyone?
Pretty sure of the 15 Parise to wherever threads on the first page of this forum none of them were started by Devils' fans. If they were the ones trying to peddle Parise then you'd have a point. But since they're all perfectly content to have him play out the season and potentially lose him for nothing next July, they're perfectly entitled to demand absurd returns for him, since after all they're more than content for him to stay even if he's leaving after this year.

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07-31-2011, 08:02 PM
  #78
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Originally Posted by Saugus View Post
I might be biased, but I find both of those statements to be highly unlikely. Last year was a tremendously unlucky fluke for the Devils. They should be competing for a playoff spot in February.

Unless Parise has been lying through his teeth to everybody, he wants to stay. His agents and Lou are still working toward a long term contract, this is a temporary measure. We'll see if he's telling the truth, but as of yet I see no reason to doubt him.

I think you'll be in for a surprise. Brodeur's 39, he may be very well finished in a couple of years, if not this upcoming year. You guys lost Rolston, Arnott, and Langenbrunner. Three key veterans with lots of experience. You guys have done nothing to improve your team, and your rookies probably won't have much impact.

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07-31-2011, 08:04 PM
  #79
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would vancouver even have the spsace to sign him

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07-31-2011, 08:08 PM
  #80
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
This is so incorrect. Deadline deals of contracts of Parise's calibre do not return any more than deadline deals of past star players hitting UFA have returned in the past.

But I'll let you convince me otherwise. Provide examples of deadline deals that have returned "a ridiculous return" for a rental player. I've brought up several examples already. Can you provide ONE example to support your claim here. Just one trade that has ever happened at or near the deadline for any player - star, superstar, generational talent - that has returned "a ridiculous return" where a team has "mortgaged their future" for any impending UFA. You guys seem so sure about this that surely there is some trade in history which will support your claim?

Anyone?
Rhetorical question?

There is obviously no support of his argument but he'll just keep dreaming and live in his own little world. The packages for Kovalchuk and Hossa, comparable star players at the time were just a bunch of trash players and a first round pick. Nothing significant at all. I mean out of all teams, NJD should know right? They acquired Kovalchuk just LAST year for scraps and pieces. Johnny Oduya who had 4 points in 40 games at the time with a terrible contract, Patrice Cormier at the time coming off a huge controversial hit, Nicklas Bergfors who's been on three different teams since the trade, ATL/FLA/NSH. Oh, and a first round pick who turned into the stud Kevin Hayes.

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07-31-2011, 08:16 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnHodgson View Post
I think you'll be in for a surprise. Brodeur's 39, he may be very well finished in a couple of years, if not this upcoming year. You guys lost Rolston, Arnott, and Langenbrunner. Three key veterans with lots of experience. You guys have done nothing to improve your team, and your rookies probably won't have much impact.
You lose all credibility with that statement. You probably remember the incredible run the Devils went on during the second half of the season last year. Know when it started? When Langenbrunner got traded. And it didn't end when Arnott got dealt. Rolston was way overpaid for his production, but he'll probably be the guy most missed of those three, which clearly isn't saying much.

I'm not expecting any tremendous breakout seasons, but the rookies will probably be better than you think. And there is still plenty of veteran leadership. Elias, White, and Brodeur have all won Cups. Parise and Zajac are proven players.

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07-31-2011, 08:20 PM
  #82
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Originally Posted by JohnHodgson View Post
There is obviously no support of his argument but he'll just keep dreaming and live in his own little world. The packages for Kovalchuk and Hossa, comparable star players at the time were just a bunch of trash players and a first round pick. Nothing significant at all. I mean out of all teams, NJD should know right? They acquired Kovalchuk just LAST year for scraps and pieces. Johnny Oduya who had 4 points in 40 games at the time with a terrible contract, Patrice Cormier at the time coming off a huge controversial hit, Nicklas Bergfors who's been on three different teams since the trade, ATL/FLA/NSH. Oh, and a first round pick who turned into the stud Kevin Hayes.
It was only seven months ago that we had to listen how the trade for Kovalchuk will go down as the worst trade in the history of the NHL.

At the time of the deal Bergfors looked like he might turn into a solid second liner. Oduya was solid the year before, but seemed to revert back to his rookie campaign after he signed for decent money and Cormier was highly regarded. Still is ranked second on the Jets prospect list, so it might be too early to refer to him as scraps and pieces.

The return won't be as high as some are asking for, but it won't be for a few pieces of crap and a first round pick either.

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07-31-2011, 08:36 PM
  #83
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Originally Posted by paul123 View Post
would vancouver even have the spsace to sign him
surprisingly yes, we have around 15m to spend on players next year. All the big guns are signed long term.

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07-31-2011, 08:40 PM
  #84
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Originally Posted by JohnHodgson View Post
I think you'll be in for a surprise. Brodeur's 39, he may be very well finished in a couple of years, if not this upcoming year. You guys lost Rolston, Arnott, and Langenbrunner. Three key veterans with lots of experience. You guys have done nothing to improve your team, and your rookies probably won't have much impact.
I would love to hear the thought behind this

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07-31-2011, 08:44 PM
  #85
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Originally Posted by JohnHodgson View Post
I think you'll be in for a surprise. Brodeur's 39, he may be very well finished in a couple of years, if not this upcoming year. You guys lost Rolston, Arnott, and Langenbrunner. Three key veterans with lots of experience. You guys have done nothing to improve your team, and your rookies probably won't have much impact.
Arnott was sandbagging, Rolston is a 3rd liner, and Langenbrunner was a locker room cancer.

A healthy Parise is worth a hell of a lot more than all of them combined.

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07-31-2011, 08:56 PM
  #86
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the devils may have no choice but to listen... if he deosnt resign by the deadline and there outta the playoffs hes gone, and for 3/4 to half of what hes worth

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07-31-2011, 09:13 PM
  #87
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Originally Posted by Halpysback View Post
Pretty sure of the 15 Parise to wherever threads on the first page of this forum none of them were started by Devils' fans. If they were the ones trying to peddle Parise then you'd have a point. But since they're all perfectly content to have him play out the season and potentially lose him for nothing next July, they're perfectly entitled to demand absurd returns for him, since after all they're more than content for him to stay even if he's leaving after this year.
I don't get this line of thinking.

We are not GMs here. We are not the ones pulling the trigger on the deal. We have NO SAY at all about what it would take to get Parise.

All we can do is discuss the possibility of *if* Parise is dealt at the deadline, what kind of realistic return he can garner?

And suggesting that it would take a team to mortgage their future, or a ridiculous return to get an impending UFA is just not logical.

I can understand fans saying they would not want to see him traded for what his actual value is. I've got no problem at all with that line of thinking. My problem is with people suggesting that it will take an arm and a leg to get him and how previous history of deadline acquisitions are irrelevant when dealing with his value right now.

This is not a trade negotiation here. We are not GMs. We are fans who are looking to ascertain what the value of an asset on the market would be. That is all. And his value is clearly not what many Devils' fans are suggesting it is. We have an entire history of trades in the NHL for deadline rentals to support that. Whether Parise is dealt this year for what his value is, is a completely different matter altogether. As I've said several times, I don't think he gets traded at all - with or without a long-term contract in place. Even if there is no contract, given how the Devils' have operated in the past, they will likely go to July 1st trying to re-sign him rather than trade him.

However, IF and only IF he was actually on the market, available for trade at the deadline - IF the Devils felt they couldn't retain him and looked to get something in return for him this year - then his value would be reflective of the trades we've already seen in the past for such star players. It would not be the absurd value that many Devils fans are demanding - Edler+ or Kesler+ or even an organization's top prospects (like Hodgson). We have seen that every time a top end rental is moved, key players are *never* given up... and neither are the organization's top prospects. This is the reality of it. If Devils' fans here won't want to see him trade for *his actual value*, that's fine... that all makes sense. But suggesting his actual value is any higher than that, is just not realistic at all.

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07-31-2011, 09:22 PM
  #88
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As an Oiler fan I hope that Parise stays far far away from the NW division unless he's coming to Edmonton

As for the OP, this is a classic quantity for quality trade, but if you want to give all of that up for a playoff run with Parise, well I'm sure the Devils will be happy to let him walk out the door for that package (if they're not in a playoff race themselves)

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07-31-2011, 10:50 PM
  #89
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You know, there's one thing I appreciate when your superstar players are a year away from UFA: every single other team dreams and creams for your player. They want him so badly, yet they seem to balk when it comes to trading top names for another top name.

It's ironic. You're not getting Parise unless a Kesler + deal is thrown onto the table. Vancouver wouldn't want that, so discussions will end henchforth. Which is good. I don't want a bunch of prospects that could free fall as fast as one Nikita Filatov.

Get my meaning?

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07-31-2011, 10:57 PM
  #90
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Originally Posted by Devilspuppet666 View Post
the devils may have no choice but to listen... if he deosnt resign by the deadline and there outta the playoffs hes gone, and for 3/4 to half of what hes worth
We allowed Kovalchuk to test the free agent waters, knowing we'd have to eventually go through the same thing sooner rather than later with Parise.

We're not afraid. The golden thing is that Parise is, for now, saying all the right things. He wants to stay, he likes it here, and why shouldn't he? It's rare for a player of his caliber to be drafted to such a storied and successful franchise. There might come the time when he says he wants to test free agency, and he may, but I sort of believe Lou did him well by giving him this one year deal, which Parise respects and will show him how thankful he is. Kind of like how Marty Brodeur resigned during the season years past. He'll have guys like Kovalchuk, Marty, and Elias whispering in his ear throughout the year. All guys who have stayed loyal to this fanbase, wanting to be a Devil for life. I think that is more valuable than the amazingly intelligent fans of HFBoards that want to see him flock to their team. Small wonder why they want him to leave.

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07-31-2011, 11:07 PM
  #91
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You know, there's one thing I appreciate when your superstar players are a year away from UFA: every single other team dreams and creams for your player. They want him so badly, yet they seem to balk when it comes to trading top names for another top name.

It's ironic. You're not getting Parise unless a Kesler + deal is thrown onto the table. Vancouver wouldn't want that, so discussions will end henchforth. Which is good. I don't want a bunch of prospects that could free fall as fast as one Nikita Filatov.

Get my meaning?
what's ironic is that every time a team's big name player becomes a rental, trade discussions start with that team's fans wanting the moon for that player... but when that player is eventually dealt, the return is a fraction of what they all expected. It's ironic that it happens all the time and fans just don't learn from it. It's even more strange coming from fans of a team that were in the exact same situation - on the other side of it - just a year ago, and yet they didn't learn from it.

You aren't getting Kesler alone (forget +, that's just ridiculous!) for an impending UFA. It NEVER happens, it won't happen, and if Parise is actually dealt, you'll again see the return just like we've seen in the past for other stars dealt as rentals.

And then next season some other high calibre player (maybe Weber?) will be in the same situation, and fans will demand a massive overpayment or some top end player on a fantastic contract and ignore the fact that it doesn't happen for such players. Again it NEVER happens.

For all those Jersey fans that think that you're going to get a player like Kesler (and seriously "+"???) for Parise, again, I ask you to provide me one example EVER in the history of this game when an impending UFA returned that. If you can't provide such an example, maybe that should tell you something. History provides a lot of info. Learn from it!

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07-31-2011, 11:19 PM
  #92
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
For all those Jersey fans that think that you're going to get a player like Kesler (and seriously "+"???) for Parise, again, I ask you to provide me one example EVER in the history of this game when an impending UFA returned that. If you can't provide such an example, maybe that should tell you something. History provides a lot of info. Learn from it!
True. All Bertuzzi could could get was some overrated goalie.

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07-31-2011, 11:26 PM
  #93
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what's ironic is that every time a team's big name player becomes a rental, trade discussions start with that team's fans wanting the moon for that player
Key words right there. What that teams' fans want for that player. Just because a guy is a pending UFA doesn't mean the team has to trade him. Why should they trade him and still be less than thrilled with the return? There's no gun to anyone's head. No one said these are the returns they expect. Or what they predict will be the result. There's a clear difference between the two. Devils fans don't tell you what they expect as a return because we don't expect him to be dealt. It seems much much more likely that the 2011-12 season will end will Parise either A) signed to an extension or B) still on the Devils without an extension. Whether or not he re-signs before July 1, who knows. But Devils fans don't anticipate the team to trade him because that's just not how Lou handled pending UFAs. Find me when he last did when one of the team's best players entered the last year of his deal.


Quote:
For all those Jersey fans that think that you're going to get a player like Kesler (and seriously "+"???) for Parise, again, I ask you to provide me one example EVER in the history of this game when an impending UFA returned that. If you can't provide such an example, maybe that should tell you something. History provides a lot of info. Learn from it!
Again, want vs. expect. Two different things. Here's my challenge for you. Find me examples of how many times a team (that was competitive/in a legitimate hunt for the playoffs) dealt one of their star players in the last year of his contract. This is excluding trading the rights a few days before free agency, because that is not what we're discussing here. The people who assume the Devils will be sitting 12th in the East all season are delusional. The Devils should definitely be sitting in a playoff spot, or within striking distance, just about the entire season, so barring something unforeseen, they will not be sitting here as clear sellers come the trade deadline. How often do teams in that position trade that star pending UFA? Atlanta was close enough to playoffs that Kovy could be considered one of these situations, although in that case it was clear (publicly) that there was absolutely zero chance he would ever stay there. But how many others can you find? How many times did the team hold on to the player, re-sign them either late in the season or just before July 1, or even just let them hit the open market?

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07-31-2011, 11:34 PM
  #94
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I have no idea what will happen with Parise but I suspect that Lou will deal him this season and it will be before the trade deadline. I really do believe Lou knows whats coming with Parise and he intends to restock to o-prospect cupboard and get a top 6 C for him but other GM's may be hesitant because it is no secret around the Leauge where or more so who he wants to play for. Cmon now do star players sign for 1 yr when a possible lockout is coming? Only if they KNOW that will have a deal ready. I have a feeling that if Lou does trade him that who ever he goes to will be disappointed in the off season and how much does Parise really want to be there when offered a no trade clause he opted out?

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07-31-2011, 11:44 PM
  #95
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I have no idea what will happen with Parise but I suspect that Lou will deal him this season and it will be before the trade deadline. I really do believe Lou knows whats coming with Parise and he intends to restock to o-prospect cupboard and get a top 6 C for him but other GM's may be hesitant because it is no secret around the Leauge where or more so who he wants to play for. Cmon now do star players sign for 1 yr when a possible lockout is coming? Only if they KNOW that will have a deal ready. I have a feeling that if Lou does trade him that who ever he goes to will be disappointed in the off season and how much does Parise really want to be there when offered a no trade clause he opted out?
Great idea: Any possibility he signed a 1 year deal because there is no certainty over the status of his knee? Yes, he is healthy now. No one knows how his performance will be over the next 82 games though. Think maybe he wanted to keep it short so he can still prove what he's capable of and get the significant pay day he envisioned a year ago? Had he been a UFA this year, he likely wouldn't have been getting the offers he would have assumed a year ago. The weak FA class of this off-season may make it an exception, but generally speaking, his stock was low this off-season because of the injury. I doubt the Devils were looking to give him a ~$7 million cap hit for 7+ years with 1 game post-injury to go off of. If he is healthy and performs, he'll get that offer from the Devils. But why should Parise lock himself up now for something lower (in the $6 mil range) when he feels he's healthy enough to get back to that $7+ mil he may have wanted a year ago.

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07-31-2011, 11:48 PM
  #96
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Key words right there. What that teams' fans want for that player. Just because a guy is a pending UFA doesn't mean the team has to trade him. Why should they trade him and still be less than thrilled with the return? There's no gun to anyone's head. No one said these are the returns they expect. Or what they predict will be the result. There's a clear difference between the two. Devils fans don't tell you what they expect as a return because we don't expect him to be dealt. It seems much much more likely that the 2011-12 season will end will Parise either A) signed to an extension or B) still on the Devils without an extension. Whether or not he re-signs before July 1, who knows. But Devils fans don't anticipate the team to trade him because that's just not how Lou handled pending UFAs. Find me when he last did when one of the team's best players entered the last year of his deal.




Again, want vs. expect. Two different things. Here's my challenge for you. Find me examples of how many times a team (that was competitive/in a legitimate hunt for the playoffs) dealt one of their star players in the last year of his contract. This is excluding trading the rights a few days before free agency, because that is not what we're discussing here. The people who assume the Devils will be sitting 12th in the East all season are delusional. The Devils should definitely be sitting in a playoff spot, or within striking distance, just about the entire season, so barring something unforeseen, they will not be sitting here as clear sellers come the trade deadline. How often do teams in that position trade that star pending UFA? Atlanta was close enough to playoffs that Kovy could be considered one of these situations, although in that case it was clear (publicly) that there was absolutely zero chance he would ever stay there. But how many others can you find? How many times did the team hold on to the player, re-sign them either late in the season or just before July 1, or even just let them hit the open market?
I've said a hundred times now that the likely scenario is that Parise isn't traded... given how Jersey has handled their impending UFAs in the past, chances are that he will not be dealt and they will try till the last minute (July 1st) to get him extended.

The entire discussion is based on "if" he's actually dealt at the deadline as a rental. Not whether he will be dealt. If he's not going to be dealt, there is no discussion to be had. But if Jersey in a position to deal him, and they've decided to move him rather than lose him to FA for nothing, then what would his value be? And it certainly wouldn't be Kesler.

I've said all along that the most likely scenario here is that he is not dealt this season. There's a good chance that he hits the FA market, but the Devils will try and retain him and maybe they will? But *if* he's a trade deadline rental asset moving, *if* Jersey is actually trading him, then his value will be in the same ballpark as other top end players that were dealt at the deadline as rentals.

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07-31-2011, 11:49 PM
  #97
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I have no idea what will happen with Parise but I suspect that Lou will deal him this season and it will be before the trade deadline. I really do believe Lou knows whats coming with Parise and he intends to restock to o-prospect cupboard and get a top 6 C for him but other GM's may be hesitant because it is no secret around the Leauge where or more so who he wants to play for. Cmon now do star players sign for 1 yr when a possible lockout is coming? Only if they KNOW that will have a deal ready. I have a feeling that if Lou does trade him that who ever he goes to will be disappointed in the off season and how much does Parise really want to be there when offered a no trade clause he opted out?
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07-31-2011, 11:52 PM
  #98
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Great idea: Any possibility he signed a 1 year deal because there is no certainty over the status of his knee? Yes, he is healthy now. No one knows how his performance will be over the next 82 games though. Think maybe he wanted to keep it short so he can still prove what he's capable of and get the significant pay day he envisioned a year ago? Had he been a UFA this year, he likely wouldn't have been getting the offers he would have assumed a year ago. The weak FA class of this off-season may make it an exception, but generally speaking, his stock was low this off-season because of the injury. I doubt the Devils were looking to give him a ~$7 million cap hit for 7+ years with 1 game post-injury to go off of. If he is healthy and performs, he'll get that offer from the Devils. But why should Parise lock himself up now for something lower (in the $6 mil range) when he feels he's healthy enough to get back to that $7+ mil he may have wanted a year ago.
That's one way to look at it. According to incarcerated Bob(a guy on twitter) Parise was offered more for longer but turned it down and Lou was holding Arb over his head but I guess around 6 is where the arb would have come in. All in all it seems fishy to me especially coming off an injury like that you don't sign for 1 yr when a lockout may be coming. Take from this what you will but as of now the underground rumors are Parise isn't super happy right now and the contract supports that 100%

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07-31-2011, 11:52 PM
  #99
NFITO
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Originally Posted by NJD28 View Post
True. All Bertuzzi could could get was some overrated goalie.
Bertuzzi had a contract with one year remaining, dealt in the offseason.

The main asset coming back was Luongo, a RFA, with one year to go to UFA status.

I've said it before Parise signed his 1-yr deal - a swap of Parise-Weber could make sense for both teams... but again you're looking at 2 assets that were RFAs, with one a year away from FA and the other 2 yrs away from UFA.

If you're expecting a star player in return for Parise, then the risks have to be on both sides as well - a player in a similar situation to Parise - a year to go to FA. Not a guy like Kesler who's got 5yrs left on his deal at below market value.

And if you're not trading Parise in the offseason (with a full year left on his deal), the closer he gets to the deadline, the more of a "rental" he becomes.

If you're expecting a star player in return, who's also a rental, I think the value will be there... that's not what we're discussing here though are we? We're talking about swapping a similar player (Kesler), with a *significantly* better contract. That doesn't happen.

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Old
07-31-2011, 11:53 PM
  #100
bobbyt91
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Originally Posted by Al Swearengen View Post
I read "real daddy" and got confused then laughed my ass off.

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