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Vancouver - NJD - Parise (Trade Deadline)

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Old
07-31-2011, 10:58 PM
  #101
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
I've said a hundred times now that the likely scenario is that Parise isn't traded... given how Jersey has handled their impending UFAs in the past, chances are that he will not be dealt and they will try till the last minute (July 1st) to get him extended.

The entire discussion is based on "if" he's actually dealt at the deadline as a rental. Not whether he will be dealt. If he's not going to be dealt, there is no discussion to be had. But if Jersey in a position to deal him, and they've decided to move him rather than lose him to FA for nothing, then what would his value be? And it certainly wouldn't be Kesler.

I've said all along that the most likely scenario here is that he is not dealt this season. There's a good chance that he hits the FA market, but the Devils will try and retain him and maybe they will? But *if* he's a trade deadline rental asset moving, *if* Jersey is actually trading him, then his value will be in the same ballpark as other top end players that were dealt at the deadline as rentals.
If you want to rely purely on the "if's" and "hypotheticals for discussion purposes" then there are too many variables that play into it to even determine his value. 1. How far out of it are the Devils. 2. How is Parise performing. 3. How many teams are trying to trade for him. 4. What position any of these teams are in. 1 and 4 are big as they affect how vital the addition/subtraction is to a team. 3 is important because teams can drive the prices up on each other. If its only one team calling about Parise, its either trade him there, or don't trade him at all. If it becomes 5 teams bidding for him, that price is going to be driven up by those 5 teams. Lou can sit back, wait for his phone to ring, and tell 4 of those teams he has a better offer, and someone will likely continue to drive up the price. #2 is the most important factor of all. Parise with 50 points in his first 50 games has completely different value than Parise with 30 points in his first 50 games. Devils fans see him at a 90+ point commodity as he was with this team. They see him a key part of a team with a bright future. The desperation to just unload him doesn't exist. The farm system is not as weak as it has been. Many of their "weaknesses" are that of any team. Everyone could always use more "top 6 forward" prospects or "top 4 defensemen" prospects. Even if you have plenty, you can always use more for one way or another. Without addressing a weakness, there's not much to really say makes a proposal work. And with the general vision of the Devils, trading a player for futures isn't the way they operate. It would be trading a player for something that makes that contribution now. Whether or not its asking for too much or not, that's why you see Devils fans asking for Kesler, Weber, Doughty, Suter, etc. If the Devils are trading Parise, they're not going to do so for a handful of "could be's" and draft picks.

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07-31-2011, 11:02 PM
  #102
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Originally Posted by Scott04 View Post
If you want to rely purely on the "if's" and "hypotheticals for discussion purposes" then there are too many variables that play into it to even determine his value. 1. How far out of it are the Devils. 2. How is Parise performing. 3. How many teams are trying to trade for him. 4. What position any of these teams are in. 1 and 4 are big as they affect how vital the addition/subtraction is to a team. 3 is important because teams can drive the prices up on each other. If its only one team calling about Parise, its either trade him there, or don't trade him at all. If it becomes 5 teams bidding for him, that price is going to be driven up by those 5 teams. Lou can sit back, wait for his phone to ring, and tell 4 of those teams he has a better offer, and someone will likely continue to drive up the price. #2 is the most important factor of all. Parise with 50 points in his first 50 games has completely different value than Parise with 30 points in his first 50 games. Devils fans see him at a 90+ point commodity as he was with this team. They see him a key part of a team with a bright future. The desperation to just unload him doesn't exist. The farm system is not as weak as it has been. Many of their "weaknesses" are that of any team. Everyone could always use more "top 6 forward" prospects or "top 4 defensemen" prospects. Even if you have plenty, you can always use more for one way or another. Without addressing a weakness, there's not much to really say makes a proposal work. And with the general vision of the Devils, trading a player for futures isn't the way they operate. It would be trading a player for something that makes that contribution now. Whether or not its asking for too much or not, that's why you see Devils fans asking for Kesler, Weber, Doughty, Suter, etc. If the Devils are trading Parise, they're not going to do so for a handful of "could be's" and draft picks.
I agree I would trade him for nothing less but will a team part with that knowing or suspecting that Parise all ready may have place in mind??

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07-31-2011, 11:15 PM
  #103
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Originally Posted by bobbyt911 View Post
That's one way to look at it. According to incarcerated Bob(a guy on twitter) Parise was offered more for longer but turned it down and Lou was holding Arb over his head but I guess around 6 is where the arb would have come in. All in all it seems fishy to me especially coming off an injury like that you don't sign for 1 yr when a lockout may be coming. Take from this what you will but as of now the underground rumors are Parise isn't super happy right now and the contract supports that 100%
Putting any stock in Incarcerated Bob shows any source(s) you believe in are rather faulty. Incarcerated Bob is more or less a NY based Eklund who puts more of his attention into other sports. He was reporting Nnamdi Asomugha to the Jets as a done deal multiple times and that one was far from the truth. He throws anything against the wall waiting for something to stick (a la Eklund) and is little more reliable than me posting rumors out there.

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07-31-2011, 11:17 PM
  #104
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Originally Posted by bobbyt911 View Post
I agree I would trade him for nothing less but will a team part with that knowing or suspecting that Parise all ready may have place in mind??
If you're going to assume that possibility will weigh on a team's attempt to go after him, why do more than 2 teams ever bid on a free agent? Everyone assumes they know where the guy wants to go. Then why do 10+ teams call the guy? Why do a large chunk make offers and bid against each other? Anyone can suspect he has places he wants to play in mind. Doesn't mean he's dead set on that list, and it doesn't mean offers from those teams will come in, or be on par with what he's looking for. That's horrible logic to justify how this play out, a whole 11 months before he could hit the market.

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07-31-2011, 11:21 PM
  #105
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
For all those Jersey fans that think that you're going to get a player like Kesler (and seriously "+"???) for Parise, again, I ask you to provide me one example EVER in the history of this game when an impending UFA returned that. If you can't provide such an example, maybe that should tell you something. History provides a lot of info. Learn from it!
Well, we were offered Brent Burns from the Wild stright up, this past month, AND TURNED IT DOWN. Even though Parise was a pending RFA then, either situation would return Parise for only one guaranteed year, so it's effectively the same thing, in this case, considering how his contract year hasn't begun yet.

The fact that Lamoriello turned down a player of Burns caliber suggests that he's pretty confident that he'll re-sign Parise.

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08-01-2011, 01:07 AM
  #106
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Originally Posted by apice3 View Post
Well, we were offered Brent Burns from the Wild stright up, this past month, AND TURNED IT DOWN. Even though Parise was a pending RFA then, either situation would return Parise for only one guaranteed year, so it's effectively the same thing, in this case, considering how his contract year hasn't begun yet.

The fact that Lamoriello turned down a player of Burns caliber suggests that he's pretty confident that he'll re-sign Parise.
Burns is a UFA after this year... maybe Lou didn't want to deal Parise to be stuck in the same contract situation with the return. And when that trade offer was allegedly made, Parise was still a RFA - it was worst case scenario for him to hit UFA status after this season - it would only be with a 1yr deal or a qualifier or arbitration ruling. Burns is already guaranteed his UFA status after this season.

Is it really that surprising that Lou turned down a lesser player that is in the same contract situation as Parise? What would he have to gain with that trade?

again, the ENTIRE point here is that you don't get a player like Kesler - someone locked up for 5 more years at below market value, who's a similar calibre player to Parise - for an asset like Parise, who, as great as he is, is 1yr away from UFA status.

If you're expecting a return like Burns - a good player, but also a year from UFA status - sure, I'm guessing there will be several such offers available for the Devils. But is that really a good return here? Trading Parise for another player who's also a UFA next season?

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08-01-2011, 02:45 AM
  #107
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Originally Posted by NFITO View Post
what's ironic is that every time a team's big name player becomes a rental, trade discussions start with that team's fans wanting the moon for that player... but when that player is eventually dealt, the return is a fraction of what they all expected. It's ironic that it happens all the time and fans just don't learn from it. It's even more strange coming from fans of a team that were in the exact same situation - on the other side of it - just a year ago, and yet they didn't learn from it.

You aren't getting Kesler alone (forget +, that's just ridiculous!) for an impending UFA. It NEVER happens, it won't happen, and if Parise is actually dealt, you'll again see the return just like we've seen in the past for other stars dealt as rentals.

And then next season some other high calibre player (maybe Weber?) will be in the same situation, and fans will demand a massive overpayment or some top end player on a fantastic contract and ignore the fact that it doesn't happen for such players. Again it NEVER happens.

For all those Jersey fans that think that you're going to get a player like Kesler (and seriously "+"???) for Parise, again, I ask you to provide me one example EVER in the history of this game when an impending UFA returned that. If you can't provide such an example, maybe that should tell you something. History provides a lot of info. Learn from it!
What's more valuable? A player that can cash in 70+ points? Or a 90+ point forward?

I think it's very simple mathematics. Especially if you factor in the asterisk that is the Devils offense. Sorry, I wouldn't trade Parise straight up for Kesler. It would probably take Schneider and something else for me to even consider. You think that's outrageous, and as my response, that's why fans don't run teams. Because they have no way to gauge talent from team to team. They just use their own bias.

All the idiotic Leaf fans, help me out on that sentiment...

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08-01-2011, 02:53 AM
  #108
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Originally Posted by EddardStark View Post
Sorry, I wouldn't trade Parise straight up for Kesler.


In today's economics of the CAP ERA, which who knows what can happen after this upcoming season....where knee injury Parise can reach UFA uber fast, and you say something that ridiculous is pure hilarity.



Thanks for the Sunday night laugh man, muchas gracias.

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08-01-2011, 04:11 AM
  #109
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Originally Posted by apice3 View Post
Well, we were offered Brent Burns from the Wild stright up, this past month, AND TURNED IT DOWN. Even though Parise was a pending RFA then, either situation would return Parise for only one guaranteed year, so it's effectively the same thing, in this case, considering how his contract year hasn't begun yet.

The fact that Lamoriello turned down a player of Burns caliber suggests that he's pretty confident that he'll re-sign Parise.
Pending RFA and Pending UFA are entirely different. Not even close.

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08-01-2011, 04:14 AM
  #110
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I would love to hear the thought behind this
Not all rookies/young players have any impact at all in their first few years. It doesn't matter the prospect. Tyler Seguin. 2nd overall behind Hall, what did he do last year? Nothing.

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08-01-2011, 04:24 AM
  #111
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Originally Posted by EddardStark View Post
What's more valuable? A player that can cash in 70+ points? Or a 90+ point forward?

I think it's very simple mathematics. Especially if you factor in the asterisk that is the Devils offense. Sorry, I wouldn't trade Parise straight up for Kesler. It would probably take Schneider and something else for me to even consider. You think that's outrageous, and as my response, that's why fans don't run teams. Because they have no way to gauge talent from team to team. They just use their own bias.

All the idiotic Leaf fans, help me out on that sentiment...
I like how Parise hits 90+ points ONCE and he is labeled as a 90+ point forward. I might as well call Malkin a 110+ point forward, based on "very simple mathematics". Because you know, doing something once means you can do it every time

You wouldn't trade a pending UFA forward for a Selke winner who put up 40 goals, had an outstanding playoff run who played 3 straight seasons without missing a single game and a steal long-term contract? I wouldn't trade Kesler for a pending UFA Crosby, let alone Parise.

We frankly don't care how important or good Parise is. Fact is. He is a pending UFA and may be traded at the deadline if Lou wants some return before he leaves for nothing.

When can you get through your thick skill that no matter how good a player is, if he's a PENDING UFA, bolded for good reasons, he will not get the return that you want. (Kesler/Edler+) That is the fact, and is supported by other cases like the Kovalchuk/Hossa trade.

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08-01-2011, 04:37 AM
  #112
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Originally Posted by EddardStark View Post
What's more valuable? A player that can cash in 70+ points? Or a 90+ point forward?
I assume this is all sarcasm.

I'd take Toews over Backstrom if that's the question though.

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08-01-2011, 05:18 AM
  #113
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Not all rookies/young players have any impact at all in their first few years. It doesn't matter the prospect. Tyler Seguin. 2nd overall behind Hall, what did he do last year? Nothing.
Seguin was a terrible example to highlight your original point, which was one that I tend to agree with (that rookies usually don't make huge contributions to their team). Seguin was playing on a team full of veterans and a stacked line-up, while also playing under a coach who prefers veterans with a developed two-way game, thus giving the Bruins the leeway and luxury of working him in slow by limiting his ice time & trying to develop him into the player that they want him to be. The Bruins knew they were in a good position at the beginning of the year to have a pretty good season, so combine that with the full depth chart, and you get very little playing time for Seguin. He also needed some serious development to his defensive game if he wanted to even get more than 10 minutes a game.

My point is, although not most, but some rookies are given the opportunity to start on the first 2 lines because of a lack of organizational depth - Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, and Taylor Hall all come to mind and that was just this past season. Given that they all saw 20+ minutes of ice time per game, they had much more of a chance at producing than Seguin did. When comparing rookie productions, you need to look at the whole picture rather than the box score or player card.


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08-01-2011, 06:13 AM
  #114
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Well our only trade-able top 6 would be raymond or sammy, because there is 0% chance sedins/bur/kes will get traded.

I think its highly unrealistic to ask for either of those 3 for a player who wont stay in NJ.
you have to give to get and spare parts don't net you a franchise player or would you trade one of the sedins for spare parts from NJ?

This seems to be a Leafish trade proposal.

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08-01-2011, 07:31 AM
  #115
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Originally Posted by JohnHodgson View Post
Not all rookies/young players have any impact at all in their first few years. It doesn't matter the prospect. Tyler Seguin. 2nd overall behind Hall, what did he do last year? Nothing.
You're talking about an 18 year old who was on his first experience in the league. The young players expected to make an impact on the Devils next season (Tedenby, Josefson, Palmieri, and Fayne) are not 18, and they have more NHL experience under their belts already. Larsson might make the team, but we're not expecting that much from him.

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08-01-2011, 09:23 AM
  #116
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If you're going to assume that possibility will weigh on a team's attempt to go after him, why do more than 2 teams ever bid on a free agent? Everyone assumes they know where the guy wants to go. Then why do 10+ teams call the guy? Why do a large chunk make offers and bid against each other? Anyone can suspect he has places he wants to play in mind. Doesn't mean he's dead set on that list, and it doesn't mean offers from those teams will come in, or be on par with what he's looking for. That's horrible logic to justify how this play out, a whole 11 months before he could hit the market.
Well as an example the whole "woo Richards" bonanza has caused a bit of backlash against Richards and his agency. His agent/agency wanted the publicity "yup were the ones who had em lining up for Richards" would look well to any soon to be star as a reason to choose that agency. The reality of it is Richars and the Rangers all ready knew where and for how much Richards was going and that amounts to obvious collusion because this was all known prior to July 1st, but the agency saw an opportunity to drum up publicity and now alot of the GM's are annoyed with Sather, Richards and the Agency.

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08-01-2011, 09:40 AM
  #117
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Well as an example the whole "woo Richards" bonanza has caused a bit of backlash against Richards and his agency. His agent/agency wanted the publicity "yup were the ones who had em lining up for Richards" would look well to any soon to be star as a reason to choose that agency. The reality of it is Richars and the Rangers all ready knew where and for how much Richards was going and that amounts to obvious collusion because this was all known prior to July 1st, but the agency saw an opportunity to drum up publicity and now alot of the GM's are annoyed with Sather, Richards and the Agency.
The whole collusion thing has become soo convoluted these days because players are friends and they talk, so I suspect Sather or Torts had one of his players that know Richards kinda set it up.

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08-01-2011, 10:02 AM
  #118
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Bernier, Forbort, Loktionov, and a 2nd for Parise and a 3rd if the Devils are out of the playoffs and Los Angelas wants to go for it all.

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08-01-2011, 10:28 AM
  #119
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I'm surprised that no has pointed out that these "comparable" deals of Kovalchuk and Hossa came from the same team. Look at where that team is now... I think it's stupid to use those deals as a comparison, because to be frank, it was Atlanta. No one wanted to play there, and the organization had little respect and no history. Hell, many people on this board still think Big Buff is the best defenseman on that team. There's a reason the NHL was so quick to relocate them.

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08-01-2011, 11:21 AM
  #120
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Well as an example the whole "woo Richards" bonanza has caused a bit of backlash against Richards and his agency. His agent/agency wanted the publicity "yup were the ones who had em lining up for Richards" would look well to any soon to be star as a reason to choose that agency. The reality of it is Richars and the Rangers all ready knew where and for how much Richards was going and that amounts to obvious collusion because this was all known prior to July 1st, but the agency saw an opportunity to drum up publicity and now alot of the GM's are annoyed with Sather, Richards and the Agency.
I wonder if big name free agents will be handled the same in the future

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08-01-2011, 12:48 PM
  #121
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Seguin was a terrible example to highlight your original point, which was one that I tend to agree with (that rookies usually don't make huge contributions to their team). Seguin was playing on a team full of veterans and a stacked line-up, while also playing under a coach who prefers veterans with a developed two-way game, thus giving the Bruins the leeway and luxury of working him in slow by limiting his ice time & trying to develop him into the player that they want him to be. The Bruins knew they were in a good position at the beginning of the year to have a pretty good season, so combine that with the full depth chart, and you get very little playing time for Seguin. He also needed some serious development to his defensive game if he wanted to even get more than 10 minutes a game.

My point is, although not most, but some rookies are given the opportunity to start on the first 2 lines because of a lack of organizational depth - Jeff Skinner, Jordan Eberle, and Taylor Hall all come to mind and that was just this past season. Given that they all saw 20+ minutes of ice time per game, they had much more of a chance at producing than Seguin did. When comparing rookie productions, you need to look at the whole picture rather than the box score or player card.
I do realize Boston is slowly developing Seguin and giving him a few minutes each game. I was merely using an example to indicate that young players may not have as big of an impact as you think.

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08-01-2011, 01:33 PM
  #122
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Originally Posted by EddardStark View Post
What's more valuable? A player that can cash in 70+ points? Or a 90+ point forward?

I think it's very simple mathematics. Especially if you factor in the asterisk that is the Devils offense. Sorry, I wouldn't trade Parise straight up for Kesler. It would probably take Schneider and something else for me to even consider. You think that's outrageous, and as my response, that's why fans don't run teams. Because they have no way to gauge talent from team to team. They just use their own bias.

All the idiotic Leaf fans, help me out on that sentiment...
Simple mathematics? how about this math?

Parise - 1yr to UFA status. Kesler - 5yrs from UFA status, at a below market value contract.

No player in the history of this game with 1 yr left from UFA status has been dealt for a player of similar on-ice value with a long-term contract locked up.

I guess you're a new fan to this game that doesn't yet understand how contracts work and how they impact value, or are unfamiliar with the CBA and just have not paid attention at all to all the other trades in the past where players on the last year of their deals were moved?

Talent does not move for talent. Contracts move for contracts. This is as obvious a thing in today's game as there is. Yet so many people - like you - seem completely oblivious to such facts. And yes, it is a fact. Just look at EVERY SINGLE TRADE EVER MADE FOR IMPENDING UFAs. What you're suggesting here HAS NEVER HAPPENED.

I can't get over how completely out of reality so many fans here are. As if you just started watching the game, and your entire trade knowledge base is from EA sports or something??

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Originally Posted by REM17 View Post
you have to give to get and spare parts don't net you a franchise player or would you trade one of the sedins for spare parts from NJ?

This seems to be a Leafish trade proposal.
sorry, could you refresh my memory here... what parts where given up to net Kovalchuk, Hossa, Forsberg, or Gretzky when they were each rental players and traded at the deadline?

Or are you suggesting that Parise is somehow more of a "franchise player" that those guys were?

I can't understand how so many people here are just oblivious to NHL history and can't understand how contracts and the CBA work and how they limit a player's value. It's like telling people that the earth is round, but they keep arguing it's flat despite a plethora of evidence pointing to the opposite.

Parise is on the last year of his contract. He will be a UFA after this season. Players - regardless of how good they are - when they are dealt in the last year of their contracts will *always* either return spare parts, or other similar assets that are also in the last year of their contracts.

This is not a hard concept to understand. There is the entire history of this game to provide you examples of it.

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08-01-2011, 01:40 PM
  #123
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If he is dealt at the Deadline it will be for a rental rate only unless its Buf, Van or Tor who trades, its known that Van, Buf and Tor are 3 places he could end up mainly because I think Lou has all ready had correspondence with their GM's. I really think its going to be like Richards except Parise gets dealt at deadline to contender for either a cpl 1st's or 1 1st and strong prospect and 2nd or mid prospect, some combination of picks and prospects. No team in contention is going to give up any part of their core for a rental, and if N.J is in contention I could see them holding onto him and trying to start a bidding war for his rights. I really hate to say this I really do but I think he will be a Leaf sometime before Oct 2012 and I could see Burke having to give up nothing to get him. On another note I have read speculation on twitter that Burke could orchestrate a whole scenario by having Parise clearly stating where he wants to go as to drive his value down for the rental and no one would trade for his rights, all to stick it to Lou. There is clicks as far as G.M's go and the ones who partake in the front loading poo are viewed differently. I really can't wait untill the new CBA comes in and to see what RETRO-ACTIVE rules will be put in place re front loading to punish the offending teams and compensate for the advantage the offending teams had. I suspect it will be something to the effect of if contract is structured is a front loaded manner cap hit stays if player does not play out contract and team is not able to trade hit to cap floor team and not able to send down. Now that would be great!!! send a clear message to the cheating GM's.

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08-01-2011, 01:49 PM
  #124
canucks1982
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if parise get traded at the deadline. it's going to a roster player/1st round pick/ and a laverage to little above average prospect

so Raymond/Sauve/1st round pick is going to get the job done

before you guys starts screaming. please look at what hossa and kovelchuk

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08-01-2011, 01:51 PM
  #125
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This whole Parise situation has really enlightened me on how many posters here have no idea how the cap system and contract length work

Parise is a phenomenal two way forward, but like many other people have mentioned, only having 1 year on a pending UFA doesn't really garner that much value, no matter what player it is. If Lou re-signs him long term then of course his value aligns with what NJ fans are describing, but as it stands now, you guys are living in a fantasy world.

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