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Full scounting report on Higgins and Perezhogin

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Old
08-07-2004, 01:42 AM
  #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal
And when talking about Perezhogin getting 2 points in his first 15 games, well don't you think it was kind of hard to produce when he first got here, not speaking any English, and never playing outside of Russia. If you had a job and they shipped you across the globe and you didn't know a lick of Russian, do you think it might be a bit tough at first? Look at what he did in the 2nd half. Your going to tell me that 50 pts as a rookie 20 year old that didn't know any English or play in any league outside of Russia before this season isn't good? How about leading his team in scoring in the playoffs before being suspended?
Don't try to add non statistical data in db23's brain, you could seriously screw his program.

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08-07-2004, 10:40 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
Afinogenov was way ahead of Perezhogin at the same age. He had played over 120 RSL games and had 65 points. Perezhogin played 60 odd games and had 24 points.
Plus Afinogenov stepped into the AHL and dominated at over a point a game before moving up to the NHL. He only played 15 AHL games but had 18 points. Perezhogin had about 2 points in his first 15 AHL games as I recall. You really have to be optomistic to presume that Perezhogin will even do as well as Afinogenov in the NHL.

Max has averaged about 15 goals, 16 assists per season in the NHL. I can't see Perezhogin doing any better than that to be truthful.
Numbers... Only numbers.

Why is it then that a guy like Datsyuk only had 12 points in the RSL at the age of 21? Is Afinogenov a better NHLer because of that? Stats aren't everything you know and if you base your predictions only on numbers, whitout ever having seen any of these prospects play while they were in the RSL, chances are you will be wrong more often than not.

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08-07-2004, 11:10 AM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz
Numbers... Only numbers.

Why is it then that a guy like Datsyuk only had 12 points in the RSL at the age of 21? Is Afinogenov a better NHLer because of that? Stats aren't everything you know and if you base your predictions only on numbers, whitout ever having seen any of these prospects play while they were in the RSL, chances are you will be wrong more often than not.
But all of this is projection. Obviously no one knows exactly how any player will turn out in the future. But in order to make realistic projections the best basis is to look how individual players produced at a simialr age at a similar level of competition.

You can't look at Perezhogin or Kostitisyn cruising around a practice rink amongst a bunch of teenage free agents and say "Wow, these guys will score 50 gaols easily in the NHL, look at how much better they are than the other guys.". That is what happens here.

Someone brought up the comparison between Perezhogin and Afinogenov and said that the Habs prsopect has all the best qualities of the Sabres player plus aother assets which would make him a better pro. There is absolutely no basis for making that assumption if you look at the history of both players.

Try to be at least a bit realistic in your expectations, then you aren't cursing the guy 3 years from now the way the same stupid fans are ridiculing Ron Hainsey or Marcel Hossa at the moment.

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08-07-2004, 11:40 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by db23
But all of this is projection. Obviously no one knows exactly how any player will turn out in the future. But in order to make realistic projections the best basis is to look how individual players produced at a simialr age at a similar level of competition.

You can't look at Perezhogin or Kostitisyn cruising around a practice rink amongst a bunch of teenage free agents and say "Wow, these guys will score 50 gaols easily in the NHL, look at how much better they are than the other guys.". That is what happens here.

Someone brought up the comparison between Perezhogin and Afinogenov and said that the Habs prsopect has all the best qualities of the Sabres player plus aother assets which would make him a better pro. There is absolutely no basis for making that assumption if you look at the history of both players.

Try to be at least a bit realistic in your expectations, then you aren't cursing the guy 3 years from now the way the same stupid fans are ridiculing Ron Hainsey or Marcel Hossa at the moment.
I put way more stock in what is said about a player from people that have seen them play and that actually drafted them then simply by looking at figures that don't always say the story. It's always the same old, tiresome debate with you and your evaluation of Perezhogin and Kostitsyn. You're judging them by the numbers. At the same time, you made a valid analysis of why Chipchura's number where so low last year and that he's a much better prospect than his stats show.

What's with the double standards? Would it have anything to do with the fact that they're Euros?

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08-07-2004, 11:48 AM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
But all of this is projection. Obviously no one knows exactly how any player will turn out in the future. But in order to make realistic projections the best basis is to look how individual players produced at a simialr age at a similar level of competition.

You can't look at Perezhogin or Kostitisyn cruising around a practice rink amongst a bunch of teenage free agents and say "Wow, these guys will score 50 gaols easily in the NHL, look at how much better they are than the other guys.". That is what happens here.

Someone brought up the comparison between Perezhogin and Afinogenov and said that the Habs prsopect has all the best qualities of the Sabres player plus aother assets which would make him a better pro. There is absolutely no basis for making that assumption if you look at the history of both players.

Try to be at least a bit realistic in your expectations, then you aren't cursing the guy 3 years from now the way the same stupid fans are ridiculing Ron Hainsey or Marcel Hossa at the moment.
You are speculating on numbers while PRO scouts speculate on what they see and what they know about kids' attitude... Enough said

To stay objective in what you say about kids' development, you have to see those kids play... Judging by stats is quite ridiculous as I and several other posters proved you it several times...


Last edited by NewHabsEra*: 08-07-2004 at 11:51 AM.
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08-07-2004, 11:54 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz
I put way more stock in what is said about a player from people that have seen them play and that actually drafted them then simply by looking at figures that don't always say the story. It's always the same old, tiresome debate with you and your evaluation of Perezhogin and Kostitsyn. You're judging them by the numbers. At the same time, you made a valid analysis of why Chipchura's number where so low last year and that he's a much better prospect than his stats show.

What's with the double standards? Would it have anything to do with the fact that they're Euros?
You hit him right on the chin, my friend

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08-07-2004, 11:56 AM
  #32
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Out of the two i've seen only Perezoighin live at the WJC in Halifax a couple years back. He was used alot on that russian team in all situations. He is very quick when it comes to everything, skating, moves, ect. Didn't get a great look at his shot but one thing I did notice is in the one game I saw of him he made atleast 3 or 4 chances for himself useing this one move that worked everytime, he would come in to the oppositions blue-line cut to the outside, then useing his quickness cut right back in and drive hard to the net. He made a scoring chance out of it everytime, this was against Canada by the way so the defence was good, it also shows he's not afraid to go to the net to score goals which is a great thing. This wasn't his only move but he did it alot and he definetly stood out.

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08-07-2004, 12:15 PM
  #33
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My gumball tastes better than db23's.

db23: Nuh-uh yours scored only 15 points as a junior, while I swallow mine whole!

Yup that makes sense.

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08-07-2004, 05:25 PM
  #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewHabsArea
You are speculating on numbers while PRO scouts speculate on what they see and what they know about kids' attitude... Enough said

To stay objective in what you say about kids' development, you have to see those kids play... Judging by stats is quite ridiculous as I and several other posters proved you it several times...
Bull****! You are the same ones who were saying that Marcel Hossa was going to score 50 goals a couple of years back and be better than his brother...blah blah blah.. Why? Well becuase you saw him play or someone else saw him play and told you he was a can't miss NHL star.

Now, because he hasn't come close to those unrealistic expectations you want to throw him out with the trash and jump on the bandwagon of the next great hope. Before Hossa and Hainsey, it was Alex Buturlin, Eric Chouinard, etc., etc. Three years from now you will probably be snickering about that bum Perezhogin over there in Russia and hyping someone else.

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08-07-2004, 06:14 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz
You're judging them by the numbers. At the same time, you made a valid analysis of why Chipchura's number where so low last year and that he's a much better prospect than his stats show.

What's with the double standards? Would it have anything to do with the fact that they're Euros?
Well if you bothered to read my "valid analysis" on Chipchura, it was based on stats just as much. The fact that he scored a lot of points at a young age in Bantam and Midget AAA, the fact that he scored fairly well as a WHL rookie on a brutal team, and the fact that he was scoring well in his draft year up to the time of his injury. By no means was I suggesting that Chipchura was going to win a scoring title in the NHL, but I think he has offensive capabilities better than a few players taken ahead of him.

That is what offensive talent is - production. Which is counted in numbers and becomes one of your dreaded "stats". Offensive ability is not determined by how well someone skates or how hard their shot is, it is determined by HOW MANY GOALS AND POINTS THEY SCORE. If you look at the Skills competition at the Prospects match, the best scorers don't often win the individual contests. The fastest skater is just as likely to be some huge defenseman who never gets into double figures in points in a year. Same with the hardest shot. Mike Ribeiro would probably finish last on the Canadiens in both departments, but he was their best offensive player last season.

How could you "look at" Ribeiro a couple of times and determine that he was going to score a lot of points if he didn't actually do it while you were watching. The same could be said about his linemates Ryder and Sevigny, I think. Neither of them stands out on the ice, but they manage to rack up the points and always have.

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08-07-2004, 07:25 PM
  #36
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The one problem with your argument db, that I can see is that the people who have seen these players play in game situations are not talking about them being fast going around the rink or having a huge shot when they have a ton of time to prepare for it, for the most part people such as Montreal are talking about in-game situations and the way the players play during the game. A good example of misleading stats is that during the 2003 stats there was a draft-eligible player hailing from Belarus who scored led, I believe it was the World Under 18's in scoring. In the Hockey News draft preview (which I can't find at this moment, it's somewhere in the house) they were questioning his skill level and one scout was saying "IF you put me on a line with Kostitsyn I would have scored 14 points" (That isn't the exact quote but you should get the gyst). Statistics do lie and can be manipulated to decieve. It is much better to evaluate a player through seeing them and their skills in game situations, seeing how hard they work and if possible, talk to them or their teamates to learn about their character.

Another point, Eric Choinard in his last 2 years of Jr. had 50 goals, 59 assists (109 points) and 57 goals, 47 assists (104 points). Surely he would have been a sure-fire NHL player with those stats, 2 straight 50 goal seasons in the Q? Talk about pure goal scorer.


Sorry about the sarcasm, I just couldn't resist


Last edited by Roke: 08-07-2004 at 07:32 PM.
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08-07-2004, 08:05 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
Bull****! You are the same ones who were saying that Marcel Hossa was going to score 50 goals a couple of years back and be better than his brother...blah blah blah.. Why? Well becuase you saw him play or someone else saw him play and told you he was a can't miss NHL star.

Now, because he hasn't come close to those unrealistic expectations you want to throw him out with the trash and jump on the bandwagon of the next great hope. Before Hossa and Hainsey, it was Alex Buturlin, Eric Chouinard, etc., etc. Three years from now you will probably be snickering about that bum Perezhogin over there in Russia and hyping someone else.
I think you dont know me very much and you are saying anything that I never said to defend yourself...

Hossa 50 goals scorer? I always said and say again that this guy has second line winger potential, nothing more, nothing less...

I never said anything on Buturlin for the unique reason I never saw him play...

I always said Chouinard was making me sick, a bust wrote all over him since the day 1 I saw him play, I always been as hard on Chouine as I was on Perreault... What shoud give you a good idea...

I always been a big fan of Perezhogin since the first day I saw him play (WJC)... Always said he was a steal at 25 overall in the 2001 draft and always believed he could become a great first line winger for us...

Same thing with Plekanec, a real diamond we got in the third round and I always said he was Chistov - Weiss caliber... What worth me a big Homer stamp but I did'nt worry... I think people are slowly realizing what I was saying now...

The only prospect I was wrong with at the moment is Ryder but I never been so happy he makes me swallow my own words.

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08-07-2004, 09:00 PM
  #38
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About Chouinard, 50 goals in the Q, 6 years ago, is worth about 30 now. At his best he never scored as many points as Tanguay, Ribeiro, Lecavalier, Richards and a few others. He has played in parts of 3 or 4 different seasons in the NHL and scored fairly well at the AHL level, so I don't think his junior stats were misleading. He just wasn't a prolific enough scorer as a junior to earn a top line role in the NHL. If Chouinard had a few other assets to go with his shot and his size he would be an NHL regular. OR if he was a 75 goal scorer in the Q he might be in the role of Dagenais.

I could turn the stats argument around on you pretty fast by using Ribeiro (2nd round pick) and Richards (3rd round pick) as examples. Both were considered to be too small and too slow to be NHL players despite the fact that they had multiple 100 plus point seasons in the CHL. They outscored Chouinard by quite a margin even though he was bigger, just as fast and had a better shot.

As for Zakharov, who I assume you are talking about as supposedly benefitting from playing on a line with Kostitsyn, I should remind you that he has outscored Kostitsyn in the last 3 tournaments they have played in together. Maybe there is some question as to who is benefitting from who.

As for "watching these guysn game situations", yeah, I'm sure that your "expert" freinds sit and watch film of Perezhogin then watch a film of Afinogenov back and forth for hours on end until they can determine without a doubt that perezhogin is Afinogenov with "more offensive creativity".

Sorry for the sarcasm.

Twerp!


Last edited by db23: 08-07-2004 at 09:13 PM.
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08-07-2004, 09:03 PM
  #39
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thanks montreal for the rating of komi and ryder but for the case of ryder i think that no one was right. Because i think me the first would have said that the first one to say that ryder will do a 70 pts season is crazy

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08-07-2004, 09:05 PM
  #40
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The only way to settle this argument is that any of you guys can take Perezhogin and Kostitsyn, I'll take Higgins and Milroy and we'll see who scores the most NHL points over the next few years.

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08-08-2004, 12:56 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
The only way to settle this argument is that any of you guys can take Perezhogin and Kostitsyn, I'll take Higgins and Milroy and we'll see who scores the most NHL points over the next few years.
DEAL! Let's make it 3 years. Milroy won't even be in the NHL in 3 years!

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08-08-2004, 01:44 AM
  #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
The only way to settle this argument is that any of you guys can take Perezhogin and Kostitsyn, I'll take Higgins and Milroy and we'll see who scores the most NHL points over the next few years.
I predict you that Perezhogin alone will totalize more points than Higgins and Milroy reunited.

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08-08-2004, 08:08 AM
  #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NewHabsArea
I predict you that Perezhogin alone will totalize more points than Higgins and Milroy reunited.
I predict that Kostitsyn will have more than Perezhogin!

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08-08-2004, 09:13 AM
  #44
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You are all working for the forecaster or what ?

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08-08-2004, 02:23 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fozz
I predict that Kostitsyn will have more than Perezhogin!
cant desagree... Cant wait how db23 will explain that

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08-09-2004, 11:31 AM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
As for Zakharov, who I assume you are talking about as supposedly benefitting from playing on a line with Kostitsyn, I should remind you that he has outscored Kostitsyn in the last 3 tournaments they have played in together. Maybe there is some question as to who is benefitting from who.

Sorry for the sarcasm.

Twerp!

Your wrong, Zakharov hasn't out scored Kostitsyn in the last 3 tournaments, as they both had the same ppg average at the U-20's in '03. Also if you look, Kostitsyn scored more goals then Zakharov in every single tournament they played in outside of the ones neither scored a goal in. Guess the Belarus National team doesn't know what they are doing either, as they pick Kostitsyn for the last 2 WC's, but Zakharov was left off the team. Here's every tournament I know of going back to '00 copied from another thread,

2000- U-18's- Kos- 6-0-0-0 4 pims -13
Zak- 6-0-0-0 2 pims -8

2001- U-18's- Kos- 5-7-7-14 8 +1
Zak- 5-6-8-14 39 +2


2001- U-20's- Kos- 6-0-0-0 2 -3
Zak- 6-0-0-0 0 -3


2002- U-18's- Kos- 8-7-3-10 18 -5
Zak- 8-1-5-6 20 -4


2002- U-20's- Kos- 6- 3-0-3 0 -5
Zak- 6-1-1-2 6 -4


2003- U-18's- Kos- 6-6-9-15 28 -3
Zak- 6-5-11-16 10 -4


2003- U-20's- Kos- 6-2-1-3 0 -9
Zak- 4-1-1-2 4 -4


2003 WC- Zakharov was so good they left him off the team, Kostitsyn was one of two junior aged players on the team. 2-1-0-1 2 -2

2004- U-20's- Kos- 5-5-5-10 12 +5
Zak- 5-4-10-14 14 +3


2004 WC- Kostitsyn one of three junior aged players, one of the top scorers on the team. 3-3-6 0 +4

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08-09-2004, 11:36 AM
  #47
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Originally Posted by Squeaky
Do you think we've seen the best Kostitsyn's shot though? I assume all any of us have seen (though I have not) is the recent camp, where his shot varied pretty strongly in accuracy. Or does it look like he was getting his best shots off?

I think it's a little early to start comparing Kostitsyn to anybody really, have any of use ever even seen him play in an actual game?

I saw him with CSKA twice last year and hopefully with Team Belarus if one of our posters here comes through. Your right though, at camp his shot accuracy was all over the place. Some days he was hitting the top corner, or scoring some wicked goals, other times his shots were mainly going too high or wide. The first thing I would say about his shot from everything I've seen is that it's a heavy hard shot. As for his accuracy, we'll have to see but he hasn't had a hard time putting pucks in the net, which leds me to believe his accuracy isn't a problem.

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08-09-2004, 11:57 AM
  #48
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The "last three tournaments they have played in TOGETHER", Zakharov has 32 points in 15 games, Kostistysn has 28 points in 17 games according to your figures. Why should anyone accept that the guy with more points in less games is feeding off the guy with less points in more games.

When you consider that Zakharov averaged less than a point per game in the Q last season it makes me question the hype around Kostitsyn. I still think there is no better than a 50% chance that he lands a regular spot with the Canadiens, and if/when he does, he isn't going to be a top scorer.

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08-09-2004, 12:28 PM
  #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
The "last three tournaments they have played in TOGETHER", Zakharov has 32 points in 15 games, Kostistysn has 28 points in 17 games according to your figures. Why should anyone accept that the guy with more points in less games is feeding off the guy with less points in more games.

When you consider that Zakharov averaged less than a point per game in the Q last season it makes me question the hype around Kostitsyn. I still think there is no better than a 50% chance that he lands a regular spot with the Canadiens, and if/when he does, he isn't going to be a top scorer.

No, you said he outscored him in the last 3 tournaments, which he did not. He did NOT outscore him at the U-20's in '03. They played on the same line, yet Kostitsyn always had more goals in every tournament, but I guess, professional scouts, Habs management, Team Belarus officials all just happen to like Kostitsyn more.

What Zakharov did in the Q means nothing compared to Kostitsyn.

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08-09-2004, 01:35 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by db23
The only way to settle this argument is that any of you guys can take Perezhogin and Kostitsyn, I'll take Higgins and Milroy and we'll see who scores the most NHL points over the next few years.
Perez and AK by far...

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