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Phillips signs..

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08-06-2004, 03:46 PM
  #1
thome_26
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Phillips signs..

he got 8 over 3 - so that's pretty similar to Brewer's contract then which IMO is pretty fair - as the only thing Phillips had on Brewer was +/- and that has a VERY VERY large part to do with the fact he played for the Senators.

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08-06-2004, 04:13 PM
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Originally Posted by thome_26
he got 8 over 3 - so that's pretty similar to Brewer's contract then which IMO is pretty fair - as the only thing Phillips had on Brewer was +/- and that has a VERY VERY large part to do with the fact he played for the Senators.
Well, good for Phillips, nice to see that some good has come of Lowe's Brewer precedent.


Last edited by igor*: 08-06-2004 at 04:19 PM.
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08-06-2004, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by thome_26
he got 8 over 3 - so that's pretty similar to Brewer's contract then which IMO is pretty fair - as the only thing Phillips had on Brewer was +/- and that has a VERY VERY large part to do with the fact he played for the Senators.
The settlement is not surprising since his offensive numbers are similar and his defensive numbers are way better than Brew's. How could Phillips get less as Brew's contract has set the statistical bar for everyone else? (and the bar is incredibly low). The implications of Brew's contract are league wide and many GMs are not happy about it I bet.

Also - the Oilers are one of the best 5 on 5 teams in the league. Like Brew and this contract if you must - but don't dump his poor defensive results on his team-mates. It's actually the opposite becuase his ES +/- numbers are soooo much worse than anyone else on the team

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08-06-2004, 04:22 PM
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Originally Posted by igor
Well, good for Phillips, nice to see that some good has come of Lowe's Brewer precedent.
Surprised you feel that way igor. This is actually the major reason that I was outraged by the Brew contract - the fact that every other dman will use his contract and numbers to support salary demands that they may not have been able to justify otherwise.

Good for Phillips though - yeah he's a good guy and I've always wanted to see him in an Oiler uniform. Maybe in a Brewer trade :lol

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08-06-2004, 04:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
The implications of Brew's contract are league wide and many GMs are not happy about it I bet.
That's bullcrap!

If any GM's are pissed off at Lowe for Bewer's contract, maybe they should look at what the hell they have done over the past 10 years in increasing Salaries at an incredible rate.

Yeah, Pleau can be unhappy... until he realizes he has 4 guys making more than the Oilers team... or maybe Lou can be unhappy, after all he's the guy who offered Neidermayer $8million to stay with the Devils.

Please, I don't think any GM's are pissed off at Lowe, they've been shooting theselves in the foot long before Lowe did anything.

It isn't anything near that dramatic... afterall, aren't the Oilers the ones who usually have players priced out because of contracts other GM's gave to their players?

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08-06-2004, 04:30 PM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
That's bullcrap!

If any GM's are pissed off at Lowe for Bewer's contract, maybe they should look at what the hell they have done over the past 10 years in increasing Salaries at an incredible rate.

Yeah, Pleau can be unhappy... until he realizes he has 4 guys making more than the Oilers team... or maybe Lou can be unhappy, after all he's the guy who offered Neidermayer $8million to stay with the Devils.

Please, I don't think any GM's are pissed off at Lowe, they've been shooting theselves in the foot long before Lowe did anything.

It isn't anything near that dramatic... afterall, aren't the Oilers the ones who usually have players priced out because of contracts other GM's gave to their players?
Steady on. :lol

The gist of that was that this was a bad contract, not that lowe is the king of dumbarse gms. As that's a pretty long queue.

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08-06-2004, 04:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Steady on. :lol

The gist of that was that this was a bad contract, not that lowe is the king of dumbarse gms. As that's a pretty long queue.
Sounded to me like Kevin Lowe tipped the scales of the NHL's economic viability, and the league is none too happy about it...

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08-06-2004, 04:44 PM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
That's bullcrap!

If any GM's are pissed off at Lowe for Bewer's contract, maybe they should look at what the hell they have done over the past 10 years in increasing Salaries at an incredible rate.

Yeah, Pleau can be unhappy... until he realizes he has 4 guys making more than the Oilers team... or maybe Lou can be unhappy, after all he's the guy who offered Neidermayer $8million to stay with the Devils.

Please, I don't think any GM's are pissed off at Lowe, they've been shooting theselves in the foot long before Lowe did anything.

It isn't anything near that dramatic... afterall, aren't the Oilers the ones who usually have players priced out because of contracts other GM's gave to their players?
Yeah take it easy - I just meant that the Brew contracts have made it incredibly easy for guys without offensive numbers to demand more money. Not a kings ransom - but $5-700,000 more than would be the case otherwise - basically the difference between Brew's contract and Mara/Boynton.

Guys like Morris have always been able to demand dollars because they had serious offensive numbers. The fact that Morris has been a bust since he signed that contract does not take a way from the fact that he DID put up big numbers the season prior to signing it.

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08-06-2004, 04:59 PM
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well, ya, first off there isn't going to be a SINGLE GM in the league that will say, "Damn Lowe, his contracts are making us pay more!". You keep throwing out Mara and Boynton - but those two guys have only played three/four years in the NHL and aren't the same number of contract! They aren't at all good comparables! Kovalchuk by his numbers should make 7-8 million, but he's only on a second contract and therefore makes way less. Both Boynton and Mara will get big raises when their current deals are up, and it would have been around the 2.5 mark regardless of what Brewer signed for.

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08-06-2004, 05:03 PM
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Given the complexity of nhl contracts I find it highly unlikely that an event that happened on Wednesday could have much (if any) impact on an event that was announced less than two days later.

We all get that some of you think that the Brewer contract was a mistake. Let's not let it take on meaning above and beyond what it was. If anything I would argue that increases are considered more than total cost when negotiating changes to contracts (and yes, I happen to know quite a bit about negotiating).

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08-06-2004, 05:15 PM
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Originally Posted by theoil
Given the complexity of nhl contracts I find it highly unlikely that an event that happened on Wednesday could have much (if any) impact on an event that was announced less than two days later.

We all get that some of you think that the Brewer contract was a mistake. Let's not let it take on meaning above and beyond what it was. If anything I would argue that increases are considered more than total cost when negotiating changes to contracts (and yes, I happen to know quite a bit about negotiating).
So do I. And I disagree.

Whether Phillips was waiting for Brewer's announcement or not, I dunno. But the dominos tumble when one deal gets done for a reason.

Like GOON said about Bergy's deal "he won't sign for less than Semenov". Now that Semenov has signed ... either Lowe agrees to this and it gets finalized quickly ... or there is a standoff. Well see.

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08-06-2004, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by igor
So do I. And I disagree.

Whether Phillips was waiting for Brewer's announcement or not, I dunno. But the dominos tumble when one deal gets done for a reason.

Like GOON said about Bergy's deal "he won't sign for less than Semenov". Now that Semenov has signed ... either Lowe agrees to this and it gets finalized quickly ... or there is a standoff. Well see.
Interesting about Bergy - didn't hear that.

OK - I'm pretty much Brewed out too so I agree to the truce

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08-06-2004, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Interesting about Bergy - didn't hear that.

OK - I'm pretty much Brewed out too so I agree to the truce
:lol True enough. The whole Brewer thing is like a debate on abortion. Arguments get spirited ... but nobody ever seems to alter anyone else's opinion.

Most every one of the guys who I agree with on that thread are the same guys that i've been agreeing with for years on here. Good Christmas, kinda crazy when you think about it.

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08-06-2004, 05:53 PM
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Originally Posted by igor
:lol True enough. The whole Brewer thing is like a debate on abortion. Arguments get spirited ... but nobody ever seems to alter anyone else's opinion.

Most every one of the guys who I agree with on that thread are the same guys that i've been agreeing with for years on here. Good Christmas, kinda crazy when you think about it.
Yeah but keep the fires of rationalism burning igor - your statistical analyses are very very interesting. I was pretty much part of the pack about Brew until you laid out the numbers - and then it became obvious to me anyway.

Of course every fan has a right to defend their favorites irrespective of any inconvenient numbers - that's what sports is about. It's like the part of Moneyball where the old scouts are talking about how some prospects just "look" like future stars - even though their numbers say something quite different. Phoenix drafting Wheeler this year smells of that thinking and that's why I love MAB. Every old-school rule says he should never make it - but all he does is put up numbers - love it.

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08-06-2004, 05:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Of course every fan has a right to defend their favorites irrespective of any inconvenient numbers - that's what sports is about.
Let's get one thing straight... I understand the aspect of numbers as much as anyone...

Let's not forget the amount of ignoring that went on when I posted numbers of the Oilers record when Brewer plays more than 21 minutes, or when he plays under or not at all.

There is a big drop-off in winning % for this team when Brewer isn't in the lineup... and it's a huge number from the past 4 years.

Numbers can be viewed a lot of different ways to say what you want them to say... it's all a matter of what you are looking for.

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08-06-2004, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
Let's get one thing straight... I understand the aspect of numbers as much as anyone...

Let's not forget the amount of ignoring that went on when I posted numbers of the Oilers record when Brewer plays more than 21 minutes, or when he plays under or not at all.

There is a big drop-off in winning % for this team when Brewer isn't in the lineup... and it's a huge number from the past 4 years.

Numbers can be viewed a lot of different ways to say what you want them to say... it's all a matter of what you are looking for.
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08-06-2004, 06:14 PM
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Originally Posted by Asiaoil
... that's why I love MAB. Every old-school rule says he should never make it - but all he does is put up numbers - love it.
Ya know, MAB deserves his own thread. I never saw him play in the AHL ... but he went form a fringe guys to the best +/- guys in the league. Like Lowe says "he didn't do it with mirrors". Its a challenge for the coach though. The games against STL illustrate the problem ... he's not tall enough, and when the big, ham-handed, STL 3rd and 4th liners got out there against him they really dominated. I don't remember if they scored, but they created chances ... and most importantly Bergy just couldn't get the puck going the other way. And those are the minutes when you have to create scoring chances if you expect to win.

Huddy will have to be sharp with his matchups, and some teams won't be a good fit for the guy. But he brings so many other things to the table that he's worth it. Solid guy too, I loved the guy right from pre-season ... heard him in a radio interview talking about a shot he took on Bertuzzi, fantastic quote ... "hey, i didn't come here to make friends" :lol That's some stones, how can you not like this guy? And I usually don't like small players ... but you just hafta like this player.

Seeing Bergy out there sometimes on a bad night makes you see the other side of the coin too. How do other teams plan to handle Georges? I mean the BG goes through bouts of indifference that would drive a saint to drink ... but he's a unique guy ... get him out there against a small or soft centre and a small D on the other team (say Rafalski and Gomez, or Yzerman/Datsyuk and Woolley) ... it's a nightmare for the other team ... AND he's eating up their prime scoring minutes. Especially with the way the Oilers pick, and crowd zones, on the forecheck [I'm a MacTavish fan, if it isn't obvious]

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08-06-2004, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Asiaoil
Hey I surrender man I'm outta here for today
I don't understand these veiled comments then.

The inferrence that the uneducated don't look at numbers or anything like that, which both you and igor have become annoyingly consistant at doing lately, then saying "What?".

I don't understand the pot shots then. They baffle me, especially if you are trying to walk away from a conversation.

I am all for numbers, where I know where they come from... unlike you who simply took igors work and started throwing it around like you knew where it came from...

For instance, your comments like Brewer's EV +/- hurt the team all year long. Well, if I did this right (which I think I did, playing around with the stats the past couple of days), -11 of brewers EV-14 occured in the last 25 games of the year, where, oddly enough, the Oilers went 12-5-3-5, meaning that it didn't hurt them too badly. It was also during this stretch where Brewer got most of his points, and power play points, but also the point where his plus/minus went from +1 to -6.

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08-06-2004, 06:44 PM
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
...
For instance, your comments like Brewer's EV +/- hurt the team all year long. Well, if I did this right (which I think I did, playing around with the stats the past couple of days), -11 of brewers EV-14 occured in the last 25 games of the year, where, oddly enough, the Oilers went 12-5-3-5, meaning that it didn't hurt them too badly. It was also during this stretch where Brewer got most of his points, and power play points, but also the point where his plus/minus went from +1 to -6.
Well, we both know how this stuff works. And the way a few SH+s and a couple empty-netters can create the appearance of a streak. And the fact that streaks happen anyway. We just can't stop 'em.

But to me one of the few things that made that thread worthwhile is your point about the Oilers record when he was injured. I know that is likley coincidence ... and if a guy went back and looked at those games it would be clear. And, winning the argument aside, I can't believe that you don't know that too.

But it's good stuff. Because an arbitrator, if he's like 'lowetides-brother-who-is-a-similar-guy-but-doesn't-watch-hockey' ... that'll sell to him. It just will. And that's kind of scary. I'd come up with the same argument if I was paid to represent the other side ... i wouldn't believe it myself, but who cares, I think it would work.

And if you're on the other side ... how do you fight that argument without wasting your allotted time? I mean it's not like the arbitrator is hanging out with 'derrick' at the cottage for a week beforehand, drinking rye and learning about the finer points of the came ... this person has more likely been arbitrating a steel-workers dispute straight before coming in, they don't know shyte from shyola. [edit: and by this i don't mean 'they would buy it because they are fools', becasue they aren't ... I mean that this is a good argument, because even though it is wrong IMO ... it carries a whollop. It's politically brilliant, it seems intuitively to be sensible, and the time constraints of your opponents give you the position of power straaight-away, or so I would think]

Just a thought.


Last edited by igor*: 08-06-2004 at 06:50 PM.
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08-06-2004, 07:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
But to me one of the few things that made that thread worthwhile is your point about the Oilers record when he was injured. I know that is likley coincidence ... and if a guy went back and looked at those games it would be clear. And, winning the argument aside, I can't believe that you don't know that too.

But it's good stuff. Because an arbitrator, if he's like 'lowetides-brother-who-is-a-similar-guy-but-doesn't-watch-hockey' ... that'll sell to him. It just will. And that's kind of scary. I'd come up with the same argument if I was paid to represent the other side ... i wouldn't believe it myself, but who cares, I think it would work.
I thought that was the argument though? I'm not going to look it up, because I am a little research goofy right now, but I am pretty sure that when I mentioned the teams record without Brewer was as an example of one of the arguments that his camp could use in the argument during arbitration (according to rules in the CBA).

I am pretty sure I said it, but if not I apologize, because I think there was a little arguing over it that spanned a few pages. I swear I did, but if not, at least it kept things interesting

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08-07-2004, 12:29 AM
  #21
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Originally Posted by dawgbone
I don't understand these veiled comments then. The inferrence that the uneducated don't look at numbers or anything like that, which both you and igor have become annoyingly consistant at doing lately, then saying "What?".
I'm not saying any such thing - a lot of people who make their living in evaluating athletes don't like player stats either. Makes them feel like it contradits what they see and feel to be true. Fans on the other hand have a right to like who ever they want - for what ever reasons they want.

But the numbers are there for Brew and represent a clear record. All I've said repeatedly is that his numbers are not that great. He's been a "plus" player only once in his career (00-01) and is -32 for his career - and this is playing on a very good 5 on 5 team in Edmonton. So it's not just a single year aberration. His offense has also never come around and he's never cracked 30 points in spite of big PP time. Not much of surprise since he's never was a scorer even in junior. You can play the potential card - but sooner or later you have to deliver - and time is going by for Brew.

IMO many of the problems with Brew are similar to Comrie's - he's being mis-cast and pumped by Oiler management for some reason. Comrie was hyped as a top line center when he was clearly was only going to be a good complimentary second line guy right from the get-go. Brew should have been encouraged to model his game on Adam Foote - instead mgmt seemed to try make him into Rob Blake. He's just never had the offense and trying to make that happen has probably hurt his development defensively.

The choices this mgmt team makes with some young players just baffles me. It's almost like they are acting like stock-pumpers - inflating a players percieved value as much as possible by the way they play him - and then dumping him for maximum return on some sucker (insert obvious Anson Carter reference here). The benefit of statistical analysis is that it cuts through the hype. It's certainly not the be-all and end-all, but it does tell you some important things and strips away a lot of the BS surrounding certain players.

My personal take - Brew has been and will continue to be hyped in order to trade him for max value in the near future. That's a cynical perspective - but it fits what I see. Too bad as the kid could have developed into a very unique player - a highly mobile defensive dman - kind of like Foote with wheels.

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08-07-2004, 12:41 AM
  #22
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Originally Posted by igor
Ya know, MAB deserves his own thread. I never saw him play in the AHL ... but he went form a fringe guys to the best +/- guys in the league. Like Lowe says "he didn't do it with mirrors". Its a challenge for the coach though. The games against STL illustrate the problem ... he's not tall enough, and when the big, ham-handed, STL 3rd and 4th liners got out there against him they really dominated. I don't remember if they scored, but they created chances ... and most importantly Bergy just couldn't get the puck going the other way. And those are the minutes when you have to create scoring chances if you expect to win.

Huddy will have to be sharp with his matchups, and some teams won't be a good fit for the guy. But he brings so many other things to the table that he's worth it. Solid guy too, I loved the guy right from pre-season ... heard him in a radio interview talking about a shot he took on Bertuzzi, fantastic quote ... "hey, i didn't come here to make friends" :lol That's some stones, how can you not like this guy? And I usually don't like small players ... but you just hafta like this player.

Seeing Bergy out there sometimes on a bad night makes you see the other side of the coin too. How do other teams plan to handle Georges? I mean the BG goes through bouts of indifference that would drive a saint to drink ... but he's a unique guy ... get him out there against a small or soft centre and a small D on the other team (say Rafalski and Gomez, or Yzerman/Datsyuk and Woolley) ... it's a nightmare for the other team ... AND he's eating up their prime scoring minutes. Especially with the way the Oilers pick, and crowd zones, on the forecheck [I'm a MacTavish fan, if it isn't obvious]
Yeah Huddy will have to be VERY careful with MAB. He's great but sometimes his package is like bringing a knife to a gun fight. It may be a great knife - but you walk away leaking none the less.

Basically you have zero worries with him on the PP, but like you said, you have to keep him away from the bigger bottom 6 lugs who abuse him. Would it make more sense to give him minutes against smaller top six skill guys like Datsyuk, Gomez and Sakic after he get more experience? He certainly would matchup better physically against these players - but would he get killed skill-wise?

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08-07-2004, 01:53 AM
  #23
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MAB isn't a weakling, sure soem 6'4 guy that weighs 220 is gonna control him - but he'll stand up to the average player. Why? Because he's got a low center of gravity - he weighs ALOT for how short he is. He's built like a brick $h!t house.

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08-07-2004, 10:33 AM
  #24
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Originally Posted by igor
:lol True enough. The whole Brewer thing is like a debate on abortion. Arguments get spirited ... but nobody ever seems to alter anyone else's opinion.

Most every one of the guys who I agree with on that thread are the same guys that i've been agreeing with for years on here. Good Christmas, kinda crazy when you think about it.
I saw a great cartoon where a duck was trying to talk to a dog. The duck was quacking and the dog was barking. Eventually they just gave up. IMO, that is what many of these arguements turn into.

Igor, I respect your numbers but they are not the only way to evaluate a player. When Brewer is on the ice, you just know the oilers are in good hands. He is a stud and that is hard to quantify. It is the exact opposite for many people when it comes to Cross. I don't mind Corry Orr but some guys hate him despite his good numbers.

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08-07-2004, 02:32 PM
  #25
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Originally Posted by igor
Like Lowe says "he didn't do it with mirrors".
Maybe not, but to my eye he had a very Torres-like season, if you get my meaning.

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