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Sharks Acquire James Sheppard from Wild; upd & signed to new deal

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Old
08-08-2011, 04:04 PM
  #201
llp
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
Sheppard is one season removed from posting 24 points, that's not terrible for a poorly developed softmore player.
2009-2010

GP: 64
G:2
A:4
P:6

Thoroughly out-played by Andrew Ebbett. And then last season he sat out the whole year.

I wouldn't expect more than 1st or 2nd line AHL duties from him. Give him big minutes, and PP time, and hope he can figure something out.

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08-08-2011, 04:06 PM
  #202
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
Now copying those names I saw something that actually lowers the percentage a little...Craig Anderson. The numbers don't exclude players drafted twice, meaning that some of the guys are counted twice in those numbers and others may have been drafted a second time in a different round which would skew the numbers a little.

But 25% is still close to the odds of getting a 80 game NHLer in round 3.
and just from an eyeball look 5 of them are goalies.

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08-08-2011, 04:12 PM
  #203
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Originally Posted by llp View Post
2009-2010

GP: 64
G:2
A:4
P:6

Thoroughly out-played by Andrew Ebbett. And then last season he sat out the whole year.

I wouldn't expect more than 1st or 2nd line AHL duties from him. Give him big minutes, and PP time, and hope he can figure something out.
Seriously? You know what I meant, give me a break.

He sat out last season with injury, so that doesn't count. The season prior to the LAST season he PLAYED was 24 points.

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08-08-2011, 04:13 PM
  #204
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Originally Posted by 210 View Post
Now copying those names I saw something that actually lowers the percentage a little...Craig Anderson. The numbers don't exclude players drafted twice, meaning that some of the guys are counted twice in those numbers and others may have been drafted a second time in a different round which would skew the numbers a little.

But 25% is still close to the odds of getting a 80 game NHLer in round 3.
And Sheppard has already played way more than 80 games anyway.

My point is, he's not going to be a star player or anything, but he's already probably (if healthy) the best forward we'll have in Worcester this season heh.

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08-08-2011, 04:15 PM
  #205
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He was also played by Cody Almond and Carson MacMillian. Ouch.

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08-08-2011, 04:15 PM
  #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by llp View Post
2009-2010

GP: 64
G:2
A:4
P:6

Thoroughly out-played by Andrew Ebbett. And then last season he sat out the whole year.

I wouldn't expect more than 1st or 2nd line AHL duties from him. Give him big minutes, and PP time, and hope he can figure something out.
he was given 11 minutes of ice time also, under lemaire i wouldn't be suprised that one of the big issues with shepard in minny was his defensive game. under lemaire if you don't do good on the defensive side you don't play.

how about his 2008-09 season, 82 games, 5 goals, 19 assists, 24 points

or how about even his 2007-08 season, 79 games, 4 goals, 15 assists, 19 points.

lets put that up against someone that on this board think he has 1st line talent and is a lock to make the team this year in a lot of people's minds.

35 games, 4 goals, 2 assists, 6 points
59 games, 10 goals, 3 assists, 13 points
49 games, 1 goal, 5 assists, 6 points.

in sheppards worst season ever in the nhl, has tied mcginns 2 worst seasons in the nhl.

both have the same amount of years in the nhl, they are both the same age.

just one is better offensively, just the one that is better offensively in the nhl is the one being belted around like he's a nobody (gotta love san jose homerism)

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08-08-2011, 04:22 PM
  #207
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Sheppard's issue has always been his skating in the Q and in the NHL. With two knee surgeries I would be cautiously optimistic.

You shouldn't expect Ladd though from this trade; a guy that can get 10-20 points might be the peak for Sheppard at this point.

BTW a third could into Veillex, Hackett or Clutterbuck for us or used to grab a guy like Zucker or Lucia, which wouldn't be bad.

Personally I would want to gamble on a guy like Clutterbuck over a guy like Sheppard.

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08-08-2011, 04:26 PM
  #208
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You aren't gambling on Clutterbuck though, everyone already knows he is awesome at what he does.

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08-08-2011, 04:28 PM
  #209
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Originally Posted by thespeckledkiwi View Post
Sheppard's issue has always been his skating in the Q and in the NHL. With two knee surgeries I would be cautiously optimistic.

You shouldn't expect Ladd though from this trade; a guy that can get 10-20 points might be the peak for Sheppard at this point.

BTW a third could into Veillex, Hackett or Clutterbuck for us or used to grab a guy like Zucker or Lucia, which wouldn't be bad.

Personally I would want to gamble on a guy like Clutterbuck over a guy like Sheppard.
I prefer the known quantity over the huge risk.

Plus, as I said, I suspect this was a bit of a 'favor' to Fletcher.

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08-08-2011, 04:33 PM
  #210
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You aren't gambling on Clutterbuck though, everyone already knows he is awesome at what he does.
Well at one time he was a gamble.

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08-08-2011, 05:16 PM
  #211
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Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post

Plus, as I said, I suspect this was a bit of a 'favor' to Fletcher.
Even if it was, how would this help us out? We helped ATL out last season and obviously we'll never see anything out of that since they no longer exist, so like what's the point.

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08-08-2011, 05:32 PM
  #212
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Why does DW need to do a favor for Fletcher?

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08-08-2011, 05:36 PM
  #213
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Why does DW need to do a favor for Fletcher?
Goodwill after signing their golden boy all-star to a 5yr 5.75m deal which is unbelievably reasonable? Sometimes a relationship is important enough to take a small hit on the chin after delivering a massive series of blows. (yes, I fully support the Heatley-Seto for Burns-Havlat exchange).

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08-08-2011, 05:38 PM
  #214
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Originally Posted by wtfisthis View Post
Why does DW need to do a favor for Fletcher?
It's possible it was part of one of the earlier deals and the favor was on Fletchers side in letting DW wait until now to finalize that deal.

I think it's more likely that Fletcher wanted to get rid of Sheppard and DW offered him a bit of an overpayment as an incentive to continue dealing in the future together.

I mean think about it, if you had one GM constantly ripping off other GM's don't you think people would be hesitant to deal with that GM? It probably makes sense to do Fletcher a favor (that doesn't hurt the Sharks too much anyway) that give him a clear win. Next time he is looking to trade he'll keep DW's number at the top of the list.

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08-08-2011, 06:10 PM
  #215
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I think DW lost a bet with Fletcher or something...

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08-08-2011, 06:46 PM
  #216
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I think DW lost a bet with Fletcher or something...

Well then Fletcher must've lost two bets to DW.

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08-08-2011, 06:49 PM
  #217
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
It's possible it was part of one of the earlier deals and the favor was on Fletchers side in letting DW wait until now to finalize that deal.

I think it's more likely that Fletcher wanted to get rid of Sheppard and DW offered him a bit of an overpayment as an incentive to continue dealing in the future together.

I mean think about it, if you had one GM constantly ripping off other GM's don't you think people would be hesitant to deal with that GM? It probably makes sense to do Fletcher a favor (that doesn't hurt the Sharks too much anyway) that give him a clear win. Next time he is looking to trade he'll keep DW's number at the top of the list.
This is the way I see it too.

We gotta keep the relationship good. We don't want to be perceived as rip off artists.

Sheppard and our 3rd is basically no loss to anyone.

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08-08-2011, 07:03 PM
  #218
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But 25% is still close to the odds of getting a 80 game NHLer in round 3.
210 –
trouble is I don’t believe GMs and coaches are looking for players that play 80 games in a career but for players that can give the team 200+ games or have trade value .

I previously cut the data on what THN and TSN considered a successful which was 200+ games.

Between 1997 and 2005 there was usually 30 to 34 players taken in the 3rd round , of which 3 to 6 players got to 200 games .. 9% to18% .

And 1/2 of the players (1-3) who made 200 games --barely made that in their career as fringe players (playing part-time, or as bottom line or pairing players and as call-ups) then finished careers in AHL or Europe.

Between 1-3 players each year made it significantly past 200 + games usually getting traded a couple of times. So 7% (2) (the 1-3 players) in the 3rd rd of each draft had any impact on their team and fewer then that made a significant impact on the game.

As examples of impact players : of the 5 / 200+ game players in 01 -Plekenic and Sharp; of the 5/ 200+players in 02 -Neilsen, Lombardi and Flippula.
The 03 draft , maybe the best in 2 decades had 5 players in 33 make 200+ games – (Storzini, A Picard Potulny , Fraser) who been traded multiple times and bounced around and the only impact player was C MacArthur who was traded for a 3rd and 4th rounder picks .

3rd rounders may make the NHL but usually only 1 or 2 have a significant impact

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08-08-2011, 07:07 PM
  #219
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyball View Post
And Sheppard has already played way more than 80 games anyway.

My point is, he's not going to be a star player or anything, but he's already probably (if healthy) the best forward we'll have in Worcester this season heh.
The percentage is more about the mathematical potential of that 3rd round pick and not about Sheppard specifically.

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08-08-2011, 07:09 PM
  #220
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part 2

Data for 03 detailed -- I picked the year because it was one of the best drafts in almost 2 decades ..
2003:
Colin Fraser -200+games , 2 teams , traded to EDM in 10/11 for a 6th rd pick
Daniel Carcillo -280 games in 5 seasons for 2 teams , ~ ½ the games, main impact the 1000 PMs in career
Clarke MacArthur-2 80 games in 6 seasons for 3 teams, traded to TOR in 09/10 for a 3rd r and 4th rounder , played very well for TOR
Ryan O'Byrne-192 games for 2 teams in NHL in 4 yrs , ( ~½ the games) , rest either not dressed or in the AHL
Alexandre Picard- 236 games played for 6 teams in 4 seasons –playing in about ½ the games
Ryan Potulny- 126 games, played for 4 teams in 4 yrs – played in ½ the games , 10 NHL games in 10/11, rest in AHL
Zack Stortini- 236 games -10/11 season played for EDM spent almost ½ the games in the AHL


As a note , going through the data for the years since 2000 found less players who make it .. i beginning to believe that as teams focus more on the draft -- and on a world-wide basis -fewer good prospects/players slip thru to the later rounds


Last edited by fr4ed2384: 08-09-2011 at 01:53 PM.
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08-08-2011, 07:09 PM
  #221
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Originally Posted by fr4ed2384 View Post
210 –
trouble is I don’t believe GMs and coaches are looking for players that play 80 games in a career but for players that can give the team 200+ games or have trade value .
Of course they're not...they're looking for full time NHL players with every single pick.

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08-08-2011, 07:31 PM
  #222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fr4ed2384 View Post
210 –
trouble is I don’t believe GMs and coaches are looking for players that play 80 games in a career but for players that can give the team 200+ games or have trade value .

I previously cut the data on what THN and TSN considered a successful which was 200+ games.

Between 1997 and 2005 there was usually 30 to 34 players taken in the 3rd round , of which 3 to 6 players got to 200 games .. 9% to18% .

And 1/2 of the players (1-3) who made 200 games --barely made that in their career as fringe players (playing part-time, or as bottom line or pairing players and as call-ups) then finished careers in AHL or Europe.

Between 1-3 players each year made it significantly past 200 + games usually getting traded a couple of times. So 7% (2) (the 1-3 players) in the 3rd rd of each draft had any impact on their team and fewer then that made a significant impact on the game.

As examples of impact players : of the 5 / 200+ game players in 01 -Plekenic and Sharp; of the 5/ 200+players in 02 -Neilsen, Lombardi and Flippula.
The 03 draft , maybe the best in 2 decades had 5 players in 33 make 200+ games – (Storzini, A Picard Potulny , Fraser) who been traded multiple times and bounced around and the only impact player was C MacArthur who was traded for a 3rd and 4th rounder picks .

3rd rounders may make the NHL but usually only 1 or 2 have a significant impact
I agree with this approach personally. 80, even 100 games is not enough to say a player was an NHL worthy pick.

I only analyzed the first round from 2000-2010 and it gets more difficult after 2005 because so many players still have a chance to have full NHL careers. BUT as I was going through the data, many players had 1 season or 1.5 seasons or 20/30/78 before disappearing from the stats page on HockeyDB. Which means many were given their taste for a couple years, then one year to prove it one way or the other. It just seemed that 80 games was too few to gauge whether someone was a bust or not.

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Old
08-08-2011, 08:55 PM
  #223
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Don't think it has been posted so here's the last Sheppard update on the ice. (January 4th 2011)

http://video.wild.nhl.com/videocente...d=849&id=90676

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08-08-2011, 11:08 PM
  #224
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Well if you think about it, DW usually does one head-scratching move every offseason so I'm glad it was this rather than say... trading Vlasic.

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08-08-2011, 11:56 PM
  #225
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Well if you think about it, DW usually does one head-scratching move every offseason so I'm glad it was this rather than say... trading Vlasic.
Trade for Sheppard or trade Vlasic. I'll agree with you on that one.

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