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What would you do as GM of the Isles (re: draft & Buffalo)

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04-15-2014, 10:46 PM
  #1
sjci
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What would you do as GM of the Isles (re: draft & Buffalo)

You’re Garth Snow, GM of the New York Islanders. After making the playoffs last tear in the shortened season, you believed your team was on the cusp of serious playoff contention, so you went out and made a bold move, trading a good UFA, and your 2nd round selection in 2015, plus a 1st round selection in either 2014 or 2015, you choice depending on if you had an unfortunate season and finished in the bottom 10.

Now, while most view that trade as being a poor decision, you at one point had the best producing line in the NHL with Vanek-Tarvares-Okposo. Unfortunately, some bad breaks and poor goaltending resulted in the Isles finishing 5th last in the NHL for the 2013-2014 season. After tonight’s lottery result, you now know you will have the 5th selection in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft.

It’s now June 1st (or whatever time you’d like) and you have to decide what to do with that selection, either hold onto it and defer the pick to 2015 sent to the Sabres, or send the selection in this years’ draft.

Reasons for Keeping the 2014 Pick and Deferring to 2015:
  • Since the Tarvares injury, the Isles have gone 12-7-3
  • The Isles have averaged 2.77 GF and 3 GA per game since the Tarvares injury
  • The young players, such as Strome, Lee, Nelson, and de Haan have all stepped up and are showing their potential.
  • Your possession numbers show that you should be a better team than you currently are, your Fenwick Close 5v5 percentage and Corsi For percentage puts you about right in the middle of the NHL for the 13-14 season, better than playoff teams such as Colorado, Minnesota, and Philadelphia.
  • Your team save percentage was 3rd last in the NHL at .910
A bad stretch of games, plus poor goaltending is what you feel ultimately doomed your season. With a goaltending upgrade, or at least improved to league average goaltending play, and the continued growth of your young players, you feel comfortable in saying that the team could gain at least 5 more wins, putting you right on the edge of a wild card playoff spot. Thus you feel more secure in keeping the 2014 selection, taking a top prospect in the draft or potentially using it to trade

Reasons for giving the 2014 selection up and keeping the 2015 pick
  • More than likely won’t acquire another possible lottery 1st round selection, losing out on the chance of Connor McDavid/Jack Eichel/Noah Hanifin
  • Already giving up your 2015 2nd (although you gained the Flyers 2nd in 2015), not fully comfortable giving up your top 2 round selections in deeper draft
  • Possibility of young players experiencing the “sophomore slump”
  • Could miss out on landing a UFA goaltender to improve position
  • Tarvares could be slowed coming back from injury/could have increased chance of re-injuring knee
  • Okposo could return to being a 40-50 point player with no motivation of Olympics
  • Your PDO (Shooting % + Save %) was 3rd last in the league
  • For the previous 9 seasons, the Islanders have finished in the bottom 10 seven of nine times, and in the bottom 5 six out of nine times.
Most critics view the trade as a disaster for the New York Islanders, but in the words of Craig Button and some others “losing out on McDavid or Eichel would make this trade go from a disaster to a catastrophe.” You view the ending season record as a team playing a weaker schedule and rather than risk the possibility of losing out on McDavid, Eichel, Hanifin etc, you bite the bullet and give up this year’s selection.

-------

So you decide, hold onto the selection this year, banking on better goaltending and your record matching up where your stats say you should be, or avert potential catastrophe and give away the 2014 pick, keeping yourself alive for the potential of being in the lottery and not losing out on a chance at one of the elite talents in 2015.

***Newsday has released a story saying:***
Quote:
Indications are that the Islanders will hold onto this year's pick to either select one of the five top prospects who are fairly equally rated, or trade the pick to acquire a more NHL-ready player.
Isles Beat Writer Arthur Staple:
Quote:
@StapeNewsday
#Isles head scout Trent Klatt won't say whether winning lottery would mean team keeps pick. As I've said, think they keep it regardless.


Last edited by sjci: 04-15-2014 at 11:00 PM.
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Old
04-15-2014, 10:52 PM
  #2
smackdaddy
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I'd flip a coin, because at this point that's what it's come down to.

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Old
04-15-2014, 10:57 PM
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If they do right July first and blow Halak away with an offer they will be a lot better....

We can score goals we just cant stop them....

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Old
04-15-2014, 10:58 PM
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Anth93
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Keep the pick.

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04-15-2014, 11:01 PM
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It's easy. Keep the pick and do better next year so it's not an issue.

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04-15-2014, 11:04 PM
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Norm MacDonald
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Resign in shame.

But seriously, you have to go with giving the 2015 1st. If you don't, you're practically admitting your team will be bottom feeders next season and thereby signing your own death warrant as GM.

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Old
04-15-2014, 11:08 PM
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sjci
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Things are starting to leak now that it looks like the Isles will be keeping the pick this year, and giving up 2015.

I personally think the Isles will be better next year, but good enough to make the playoffs is the question. I think they're more likely to finish around the 8-12 range

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04-15-2014, 11:08 PM
  #8
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Trade the pick for young immediate help and give up 2015.

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04-15-2014, 11:12 PM
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Honour Over Glory
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Wait a minute here...


Trent Klatt is their freakin' head scout?

How in the hell, who is their team President? Trevor Gillies?

I would shop the pick around and see if I could potentially package maybe a prospect with that pick, to land a huge from a team that would really covet that pick and a prospect that he Isles would feel is ok giving up to land the said big fish. Just depends on who would be available I think. Goaltenders wise, not a lot, defensemen wise, a few.

Although, if the Isles can get Cam Ward from the Hurricanes for less, that'd be a huge move in the right direction.

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Old
04-15-2014, 11:15 PM
  #10
sjci
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Honour Over Glory View Post
Wait a minute here...


Trent Klatt is their freakin' head scout?

How in the hell, who is their team President? Trevor Gillies?
Director of Player Development
Eric Cairns

Player Development
Bob Corkum

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04-15-2014, 11:17 PM
  #11
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Keep the pick. Why the hell would you give up a top-5 pick?

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04-15-2014, 11:17 PM
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Honour Over Glory
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Director of Player Development
Eric Cairns

Player Development
Bob Corkum
Sweet mother of pucks, what in the hell...

I want to hug all of the Isles fans and tell them that some day, it will get better...hopefully when a competent person buys Wang's shares.

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04-15-2014, 11:17 PM
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Sidney the Kidney
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Keep the pick.

1-If you defer the pick, you're basically saying you don't think you'll improve next year and already see yourself as a non-playoff team. Because the only reason to keep the 2015 pick is if you think you'll have a shot at McDavid/Eichel by once again finishing lousy in the standings.

2-It's a top five pick, and you will get a good prospect at that spot. If you assume you will be better than this year, but maybe not quite playoff level, it's a wish and prayer hoping you finish 10th or beyond and win the lottery to land the 1st overall.

Reason #1, IMO, is the biggest reason to keep the 2014 and give Buffalo the 2015. It sends a message that you don't really have much intention of improving your roster this summer and fully expect your team to be in a position once again to draft high next year.

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04-15-2014, 11:19 PM
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Diatomic
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I'd Keep the pick but that being said a bunch of Rookies maturing isn't going to get them out of the basement. They need to trade for someone or shower lots and lots of money on a good UFA.

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04-15-2014, 11:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by magic school bus View Post
Keep the pick. Why the hell would you give up a top-5 pick?
Two reasons you would do it:

1. 2015 draft is supposed to be much better and deeper than 2014, so that a mid-late 1st is roughly equivalent to #5 this year.

2. McDavid lottery

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04-15-2014, 11:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Honour Over Glory View Post
Although, if the Isles can get Cam Ward from the Hurricanes for less, that'd be a huge move in the right direction.
Islanders are cheap and Ward would throw their pay structure out of wack. I personally would give Ward a go(while getting a capable backup) if Wang said the payroll can gover over 5-10M of the cap min but I don't think that will happen.

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Originally Posted by dire wolf View Post
1. 2015 draft is supposed to be much better and deeper than 2014, so that a mid-late 1st is roughly equivalent to #5 this year.
I think people are overstating how good next year is. While it may be deep the 5th pick this year probably more in the 7-9 range next year. Mackenzie clearly started the top 5 this year is a step ahead of the rest. Now if the Islanders feel one of the 5 is not up to snuff then they may defer in fear he will be the on left over, but if they like all 5 guys to the degree of MacKenzie then best bet they keep the pick and just hope they finish 8th worst or better next season(and hope they don't win the lottery)


Last edited by boredmale: 04-15-2014 at 11:28 PM.
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Old
04-15-2014, 11:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Honour Over Glory View Post
Wait a minute here...


Trent Klatt is their freakin' head scout?

How in the hell, who is their team President? Trevor Gillies?

I would shop the pick around and see if I could potentially package maybe a prospect with that pick, to land a huge from a team that would really covet that pick and a prospect that he Isles would feel is ok giving up to land the said big fish. Just depends on who would be available I think. Goaltenders wise, not a lot, defensemen wise, a few.

Although, if the Isles can get Cam Ward from the Hurricanes for less, that'd be a huge move in the right direction.
8th overall + 3rd rounder + Reimer for isles pick.

I know Reimer is crapped on HF too much and people view him as a spare part but I'm one of the most critical leafs fans and I'm ashamed of my team this season but Reimer is a good goalie. He is a starting goalie (going to be pretty cheap too, less than 3mil on his next contract forsure) and he is a huge upgrade over Nabovok. He just had a terrible season playing with no confidence, played behind a team that gave up the most SOG in nhl history.

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04-15-2014, 11:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dire wolf View Post
Two reasons you would do it:

1. 2015 draft is supposed to be much better and deeper than 2014, so that a mid-late 1st is roughly equivalent to #5 this year.
No it's not. The differences between the 2014 draft and 2015 draft are because there are no McDavid or Eichel at the top of the draft, and 2015 is supposed to be deeper when you get to the later picks after the top 10 in the first round.

The top 5 prospects in 2014 are no worse than prospects #3 and beyond in 2015. The only two that are a clear cut above Reinhart/Ekblad/Bennett/Dal Colle/Draisaitl are McDavid and Eichel.

So no, you would not get as good a prospect "mid to late 1st" in 2015 as you would drafting 5th overall this year.

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04-15-2014, 11:28 PM
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Marc the Habs Fan
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Very tough decision.

Crunching the numbers, it appears they will have to spend somewhere around 8-10 M just to reach the floor.

So even if ownership doesn't want to spend significantly, they have $ to spend to get a goalie. Halak, Miller, Hiller, the hail mary trade for Cam Ward, the possibly rejuvenated Bryzgalov...all possibilities here.

To me, if they are deferring to 2015, they HAVE to acquire a legit top 4 defenceman someway somehow as well. Snow HAS to know if this type of trade is possible by June 1st.

There's also Visnovsky's health, how is he feeling? He was still having symptoms as of this week. If he can't play, then you need another defenceman.

I know Isles fans will hate me for saying it, but Nelson or Strome should be used as trade bait for a quality top 4 D. That still leaves you Tavares -1 of Nelson/Strome - Nielsen and Cizikas down the middle. Lee can also play C. Plenty of depth.

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04-15-2014, 11:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dire wolf View Post
Two reasons you would do it:

1. 2015 draft is supposed to be much better and deeper than 2014, so that a mid-late 1st is roughly equivalent to #5 this year.

2. McDavid lottery
I know it's the McDavid lottery, but if the Islanders are in a position to draft McDavid they need to clean house.

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04-15-2014, 11:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Crunching the numbers, it appears they will have to spend somewhere around 8-10 M just to reach the floor.
I have it 10M-12M depending on what they do with 4 RFAs(Cizikas, De Haan, Lee and Donovan). They currently are at 38M(including Yashin's buyout) with 11F-5D-0G signed

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh....php?t=1644403

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Old
04-15-2014, 11:32 PM
  #22
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Originally Posted by sjci View Post
Director of Player Development
Eric Cairns

Player Development
Bob Corkum
Unbelievable. I know a great player =/= great teacher/coach, but that above is not good pedigree.

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04-15-2014, 11:35 PM
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boredmale
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Unbelievable. I know a great player =/= great teacher/coach, but that above is not good pedigree.
For the sake of argument Cairns was the one who scouted Hamonic, not sure what other picks he can be credited with but that was one of his better ones

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04-15-2014, 11:37 PM
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Well the representative they had there said "Depending on how we do today, it'll either make our decision easier or make it stay the same."

They'll be trading next year's pick.

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04-15-2014, 11:43 PM
  #25
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Keep this years pick and give away the 2015 pick. Acquire a young goalie, sign some UFA's that are good at playing a two way game (Vrbata is a name that pops up, McClement is another who will be cheap, Bolland etc) and you also get a healthy Tavares back.

Keeping next years pick tells your team that you have no faith in them to be better than the 25-27th team in the league and that is not the message you want to send.

I think the Isles can at least make that pick 10-14 next year with a few changes...however I think they made a huge mistake keeping their coach...he's the wild card in this decision.

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