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Leino, the debate concerning overpayment of UFA's and the Flyers approach?

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Old
08-08-2011, 11:35 AM
  #1
FreshPerspective
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Leino, the debate concerning overpayment of UFA's and the Flyers approach?

This was a decent piece..funny how Leino was the main photo (poster boy) for this article on the main site. I'm glad we didn't sign Leino to a long term deal and despite all the debate about Jagr's added value...I think with the one year deal you can't really go wrong. Flyers should continue to build through the draft going forward and approach UFA's this way although obviously not exactly feasible to land good players who want an extended payout while at their peak. They would just take themselves out of the UFA market basically. Nonetheless it's all about value..

Contracts like Lilja (2 yrs) are just baffeling of course but that's just typical of Holmgren's token WTF signing every offseason....

Quote:
Earlier this summer, the Buffalo Sabres realized they needed a big push to become a championship-caliber team. Instead of signing just one or two mid-level players, they brought in three highly paid guys whose cap hits total almost $13 million.

Christian Ehrhoff and Ville Leino were signed as unrestricted free agents, which means the Sabres essentially had to outbid other suitors. Meanwhile, the Sabres traded for Robyn Regehr.

Although his original contract was signed when he was a restricted free agent, the Calgary Flames -- his former team -- had to buy out four years of Regehr's UFA years, which cost $4.02 million a season.

In other words, when it comes to all three of these players, the Sabres are probably overpaying them.

But you almost have to pay more for players who are eligible for unrestricted free agency. That is why, for years, analysts have said it's crucial to build through the draft. Because when you draft your own team, your core can be built of young players who are eligible only for entry-level or restricted deals. And those guys can't explore the open market, which lowers their price.

So it's no secret that UFAs are not good values. But exactly how much are teams overpaying for them?

Turns out it's quite a lot.
This is an interesting point considering how it's been discussed on here when players peak....sometimes the subject of ridicule.

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The idea is that when a team signs a player to a UFA deal, it wants to have him throughout his prime. But when we measure success with Tom Awad's GVT, the "prime" begins at around age 25 when players are expected to be at 2.92 GVT, and they peak at around age 29 (3.31 GVT). But by the time players are 32, their expected GVT drops to 2.90. In other words, players enter their prime during their RFA years, which make them great values. And they begin their decline quickly after they become eligible for unrestricted free agency. This makes UFAs poor values, especially if their rate of decline is fast.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story...er-values-ufas


Last edited by FreshPerspective: 08-08-2011 at 12:17 PM. Reason: clarification..and Lilja not Liles!
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08-08-2011, 11:48 AM
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This offseason was not normal though, you had teams throwing crazy money to get to the cap floor and not alot of top line talent other than Brad Richards to spend it on. Next off season should be more reasonable.

Though on on percentage basis, homer's stupid contracts are more over payments than leino's.

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08-08-2011, 11:55 AM
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Originally Posted by kicksave27 View Post
This offseason was not normal though, you had teams throwing crazy money to get to the cap floor and not alot of top line talent other than Brad Richards to spend it on. Next off season should be more reasonable.

Though on on percentage basis, homer's stupid contracts are more over payments than leino's.
True...I like the Talbott signing this year but it's still an overpayment when it comes right down to it but it depends on the added value we get from him this year. I think he'll wash out like Mez did this past year.

I like the rethink though overall this year with getting younger players and draft picks and extending the window for success even if we may take a step back this year but it could only be minor (not protracted) depending on how the team comes together. I still think they'll be just above .500 in the first half and then hopefully in the second half they make a run. Pronger coming back healthy will be key IMO...

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08-08-2011, 12:03 PM
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Buffalo was also in it this summer to spend money. It wasn't about value for them at all. Usually, it blows up in one's face. I'm pretty sure the same will happen in Florida.

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08-08-2011, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by kicksave27 View Post
This offseason was not normal though, you had teams throwing crazy money to get to the cap floor and not alot of top line talent other than Brad Richards to spend it on. Next off season should be more reasonable.

Though on on percentage basis, homer's stupid contracts are more over payments than leino's.
homer hasnt made any signings as bad as that Leino signing...(even if you bundle MFL + Jody Shelley and even Randy Jones)


that Leino signing will end up being one of the worst ever imo

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08-08-2011, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
homer hasnt made any signings as bad as that Leino signing...(even if you bundle MFL + Jody Shelley and even Randy Jones)


that Leino signing will end up being one of the worst ever imo
In the short term for Buffalo it won't be horrible..I think Leino fits into that system pretty well and should do decent but overall it's not a prudent contract..definitely.

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08-08-2011, 12:41 PM
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Leino's contract is ridiculous imo (4.5 per for 6yrs w/ a 9mil signing bonus) but a lot of crazy contracts were handed out this year. Laich got a similar deal and patrick sharp just signed a 5yr extension at 5.9per. i like sharp but he'll be 30 this December. i know he had arguably the best year of his career last season but his play dropped pretty significantly in the 2nd half. as the cap continues to go up so will the player's salaries obviously, so i think it's vital that the flyers sign G, JVR, Schenn and Couturier to long term deals like the Richie/Carter deals when the opportunity presents itself.

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08-08-2011, 12:42 PM
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Leino got lucky this season cause so many teams had to hit the cap floor. Buffalo then went wild and went through the ceiling.

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08-08-2011, 01:09 PM
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I hate to see Leino gone, but i donīt want him near 4 mio.

He is a very good playmaker and has solid 2 way play, but he isnīt worth this contract! But i take Leino over Laich every day of the week.

Leino > J. Blake
Leino > Kotalik
Leino > Heatley
Leino > Lupul
Leino > Kovalchuk

So Buffalo donīt give him the worst contract in the league.

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08-08-2011, 01:15 PM
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I think you lost me at Leino > Kovalchuk

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08-08-2011, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Beef Invictus View Post
I think you lost me at Leino > Kovalchuk
yea... what the eff was that? lol

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08-08-2011, 02:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
yea... what the eff was that? lol
I think he is talking about contracts. Right? He has to be...

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08-08-2011, 02:51 PM
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For his skill level, I don't think Kovalchuk's cap hit is too bad. The length is pretty alarming though.

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08-08-2011, 03:00 PM
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I think he is talking about contracts. Right? He has to be...
I would easily take Kovy, with his contract, over Leino. I would actually like Kovy on my team, I feel he gets too much hate. He was on fire the 2nd half of last year.

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08-08-2011, 04:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyersFan61290 View Post
as the cap continues to go up so will the player's salaries obviously, so i think it's vital that the flyers sign G, JVR, Schenn and Couturier to long term deals like the Richie/Carter deals when the opportunity presents itself.
Agreed that they need to bind that talent log term in order to get cap friendly return for their money but they should refrain from giving away NMC and NTCs along with 10year contracts.

Nobody can seriously tell how a player will develop over such a period of time and i.e. how a player's health will keep up with the rest.In the worst case you end up with a Di Pietro....

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08-08-2011, 06:01 PM
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Agreed that they need to bind that talent log term in order to get cap friendly return for their money but they should refrain from giving away NMC and NTCs along with 10year contracts.

Nobody can seriously tell how a player will develop over such a period of time and i.e. how a player's health will keep up with the rest.In the worst case you end up with a Di Pietro....
I think Giroux is a lock to get a mega-deal, JvR is getting closer, and couturier/schenn will have to prove themselves before they get to that level.

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08-08-2011, 06:04 PM
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I would easily take Kovy, with his contract, over Leino. I would actually like Kovy on my team, I feel he gets too much hate. He was on fire the 2nd half of last year.
I would too. I am just saying its easier to say Leino's contract is better than Kovy's rather than saying Leino is better than Kovy.

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08-08-2011, 06:41 PM
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I would too. I am just saying its easier to say Leino's contract is better than Kovy's rather than saying Leino is better than Kovy.
its still an uphill battle (whichever argument you pick)

but i get what you're saying...

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08-09-2011, 03:27 AM
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I agree with tuckr. Leino's contract will be viewed as one of the worst contracts on the market. He's going to look like a slightly cheaper W. Redden.

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08-09-2011, 01:58 PM
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I for one would like to see the flyers stop trading away our picks and start building with guys that we draft.Stop giving out the big money on UFA unless its a one or two yr deal.And no more NTC as well cause it handicaps the club most of the time cause the guys that teams want cant be moved cause of a NTC clause. And the team should invest more money in the scouting part so we can find the diamonds in the ruff like some of the other clubs do..........

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08-09-2011, 02:10 PM
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I for one would like to see the flyers stop trading away our picks and start building with guys that we draft.Stop giving out the big money on UFA unless its a one or two yr deal.And no more NTC as well cause it handicaps the club most of the time cause the guys that teams want cant be moved cause of a NTC clause. And the team should invest more money in the scouting part so we can find the diamonds in the ruff like some of the other clubs do..........
I dont think we're as dependant on UFA as the rangers or teams like that...we really dont Usually (key word here) go after the big UFAs...

but look at Briere, that contract isnt looking so bad on him now (I would NOT have said that 2 years ago)

bryz wasnt really an UFA signing, since he never saw the open market...

If we went after a guy like suter i'd be pretty happy (even if we overpaid a little bit)

I think you need to draft strong AND sign UFAs when its reasonable...how else can you be better than other teams? I mean you only get 1 1st pick per year...so unless you go the pittsburgh route, you need to get those UFAs will make your team better.

sure they may ask for more $$$, but the guys you draft and sign save you $$$

theres no right or wrong here, you really need both to succeed.


that said, moving richards/carter for picks and RFA/prospects is exciting...'cuz this years UFA class is superb, we could do very well for ourselves this upcoming year. i'd give Suter up to 8mil (imo if we get him, Weber will follow in 2013)

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08-09-2011, 04:36 PM
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Originally Posted by tuckrr View Post
I dont think we're as dependant on UFA as the rangers or teams like that...we really dont Usually (key word here) go after the big UFAs...

but look at Briere, that contract isnt looking so bad on him now (I would NOT have said that 2 years ago)

bryz wasnt really an UFA signing, since he never saw the open market...

If we went after a guy like suter i'd be pretty happy (even if we overpaid a little bit)

I think you need to draft strong AND sign UFAs when its reasonable...how else can you be better than other teams? I mean you only get 1 1st pick per year...so unless you go the pittsburgh route, you need to get those UFAs will make your team better.

sure they may ask for more $$$, but the guys you draft and sign save you $$$

theres no right or wrong here, you really need both to succeed.


that said, moving richards/carter for picks and RFA/prospects is exciting...'cuz this years UFA class is superb, we could do very well for ourselves this upcoming year. i'd give Suter up to 8mil (imo if we get him, Weber will follow in 2013)

There isn't a single defenseman in the NHL currently with a cap hit of 8M. Suter is very good, but he's not that good.

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08-09-2011, 05:33 PM
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There isn't a single defenseman in the NHL currently with a cap hit of 8M. Suter is very good, but he's not that good.
yea, but in 3 years there will be...an 8 mil contract wont kill us in the short term, and will be an asset in the long term. (the cap is going up)

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08-09-2011, 08:08 PM
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weber could be looking at 8mil after this season if he goes to arbitration and has another strong year

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08-10-2011, 03:21 AM
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yea, but in 3 years there will be...an 8 mil contract wont kill us in the short term, and will be an asset in the long term. (the cap is going up)
An 8 million contract is not an asset for a defenseman.

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