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NHL testing rule changes next week

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Old
08-13-2011, 05:31 PM
  #26
CriminallyVu1gar
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My issue isn't with the shootout itself. As gimmicky as it is, one on one F vs. G play, stickhandling, and shooting are all skills that do decide hockey games. I don't have a problem with them being highlighted as the sole things that decide hockey games on occasion.

What I do have a problem with is the frequency in which they decide hockey games. If memory serves, 296 extra time games ended in OT, and 296 ended in the shootout last year. That's way too many shootout games. I think something as simple as extending OT 5 minutes would go a long way in decreasing the number of shootouts, maybe getting close to an 80-20 OT-SO split that I think is ideal.

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08-13-2011, 05:38 PM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CriminallyVu1gar View Post
My issue isn't with the shootout itself. As gimmicky as it is, one on one F vs. G play, stickhandling, and shooting are all skills that do decide hockey games. I don't have a problem with them being highlighted as the sole things that decide hockey games on occasion.

What I do have a problem with is the frequency in which they decide hockey games. If memory serves, 296 extra time games ended in OT, and 296 ended in the shootout last year. That's way too many shootout games. I think something as simple as extending OT 5 minutes would go a long way in decreasing the number of shootouts, maybe getting close to an 80-20 OT-SO split that I think is ideal.
I think the bigger problem is that too many games are going into overtime, because the current system actually gives an incentive for teams to play defensively late in games to get to OT.

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08-13-2011, 05:42 PM
  #28
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Another rule-change I'd like to see is teams being able to elect having a two minute power play instead of a penalty shot when a PS is awarded. There are situations in which it would make sense.

If you're up a goal with ~2 minutes to play and your guy is awarded a penalty shot, you have about a 31% chance of converting on that shot to put the game away, or about a 98% chance of holding a lead (not giving up a SHG) with a man advantage. It would depend on a team's makeup and the situation, but I think several would elect a two or less man advantage late in a game over an awarded penalty shot.

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08-13-2011, 05:53 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
I think the bigger problem is that too many games are going into overtime, because the current system actually gives an incentive for teams to play defensively late in games to get to OT.
That may be true, though I'm not sure there's a significantly higher percentage of NHL games that go into OT than other sports when you adjust for the fact that less scoring (and identical worth scores) makes a sport more prone to have OT contests.

The MLB sees 10-12% of its games go extra innings, a little less than half of the NHL's 24% last season. The average combined MLB score is around 10 (9.6 last year) while the average NHL score is a little more than half (5.53 last year I believe) which seems to suggest they have a roughly equivalent percentage of extra time contest.

Likewise the NFL has a little less than 1/8th the percentage of OT games (3.5% last year), but their scoring is a little less than 8 times the NHL's (somewhere around 40 combined pts per game).

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08-13-2011, 06:17 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CriminallyVu1gar View Post
That may be true, though I'm not sure there's a significantly higher percentage of NHL games that go into OT than other sports when you adjust for the fact that less scoring (and identical worth scores) makes a sport more prone to have OT contests.

The MLB sees 10-12% of its games go extra innings, a little less than half of the NHL's 24% last season. The average combined MLB score is around 10 (9.6 last year) while the average NHL score is a little more than half (5.53 last year I believe) which seems to suggest they have a roughly equivalent percentage of extra time contest.

Likewise the NFL has a little less than 1/8th the percentage of OT games (3.5% last year), but their scoring is a little less than 8 times the NHL's (somewhere around 40 combined pts per game).
That's not exactly rigorous analysis though. I would guarentee you the variabiliy in baseball scores is much greater than in hockey (scores are highly dependant on the quality of the starting pitchers - a game between two very good pitching staffs is going to be much higher probability of extra innings than a game between two poor ones), and this will decrease the amount of tie games independent of total runs/points scored.

In football, some scores are significantly more common than others, even after 4 quarters of play. They also have the chance to change the value of a TD (from 7 to 6/8) depending if they make a play and need the points. I'm honestly very surprised the NFL has such a low rate.

A better comparison would be to look at the amount of games that went to OT before the NHL went to the OTL system, then look at after the OTL system but pre-SO (when games that went to OT weren't guarenteed to provide 3 total points), then look at how many currently go to OT.

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08-13-2011, 06:27 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
That's not exactly rigorous analysis though. I would guarentee you the variabiliy in baseball scores is much greater than in hockey (scores are highly dependant on the quality of the starting pitchers - a game between two very good pitching staffs is going to be much higher probability of extra innings than a game between two poor ones), and this will decrease the amount of tie games independent of total runs/points scored.

In football, some scores are significantly more common than others, even after 4 quarters of play. They also have the chance to change the value of a TD (from 7 to 6/8) depending if they make a play and need the points. I'm honestly very surprised the NFL has such a low rate.

A better comparison would be to look at the amount of games that went to OT before the NHL went to the OTL system, then look at after the OTL system but pre-SO (when games that went to OT weren't guarenteed to provide 3 total points), then look at how many currently go to OT.
Yeah it was a simplistic analysis for sure. Maybe I'll go more in depth for an upcoming Vulgar Stats column (shameless plug). Although the difficulty in analyzing older data is that it's not often readily available.

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08-13-2011, 06:42 PM
  #32
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Originally Posted by CriminallyVu1gar View Post
Yeah it was a simplistic analysis for sure. Maybe I'll go more in depth for an upcoming Vulgar Stats column (shameless plug). Although the difficulty in analyzing older data is that it's not often readily available.
Actually just found this article...very relevant: http://Sabremetricresearch.blogspot....teams-are.html

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08-13-2011, 06:46 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
Actually just found this article...very relevant: http://Sabremetricresearch.blogspot....teams-are.html
Hmm that link does not seem to want to work for me, says it doesn't exist.

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08-13-2011, 06:49 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by CriminallyVu1gar View Post
Hmm that link does not seem to want to work for me, says it doesn't exist.
That's odd. I can search in google and find the article with that html, but when I try to follow my link it doesn't work...

If you're still interested, type in "nhl teams playing for ot" in google, it should be the first link...

Here's scoring numbers in the last 3 minutes of games compared with the overall rate: (both numbers are goals/60 minutes)
Quote:
2005-06: 4.27 vs. 6.17 overall
2006-07: 3.04 vs. 5.89
2007-08: 4.64 vs. 5.57
2008-09: 3.43 vs. 5.83
2009-10: 2.05 vs. 5.68 (approx.)
All lower late in the game, and seemingly getting worse...old article, that's why there's no 10-11 numbers.

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08-13-2011, 06:51 PM
  #35
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This is the original study in 2007: http://www.philbirnbaum.com/overtime.htm

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08-13-2011, 07:14 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by jflory81 View Post
That's odd. I can search in google and find the article with that html, but when I try to follow my link it doesn't work...
Lol, that's because HFB has that "spelling corrector" that converts s-a-b-e-r automatically to s-a-b-r-e.

Switch the r with the e and it should work.

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08-13-2011, 08:16 PM
  #37
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Have yet to talk to someone who prefers ties over shootouts
Absolutely prefer ties.

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08-13-2011, 09:46 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by aceface33 View Post
Absolutely prefer ties.
Hate ties. It's an empty feeling. They should leave the game as it is but switch to a 3-point system, eliminating the heavy incentive to carry games to OT.

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08-14-2011, 05:24 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by mgn View Post
Lol, that's because HFB has that "spelling corrector" that converts s-a-b-e-r automatically to s-a-b-r-e.

Switch the r with the e and it should work.
That'd do it

I've even been around long enough to remember WHY that autocorrect is there

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08-14-2011, 08:08 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Armond White View Post
Hate ties. It's an empty feeling. They should leave the game as it is but switch to a 3-point system, eliminating the heavy incentive to carry games to OT.
I would be ok with that. But I hate the skills competition. Better to give both teams a point for a hard fought game than resort to that bs. If you win or lose it's cheap.

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08-14-2011, 12:54 PM
  #41
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this would be kinda radical, but id like to see how this would change the game. what if you couldnt change lines when killing a penalty. i think penalty killing has gotten much better over the years and i think this would eliminate a lot of the stupid penalties during the game. so you might see more effective power plays but less penalties.

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08-14-2011, 12:58 PM
  #42
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The PA would NEVER go for that because of serious injury concerns.

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08-14-2011, 05:41 PM
  #43
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No icing on penalty kill is maybe the worst rule proposal I've heard. It just completely ruins the dynamics of special teams. Terrible.

I quite enjoy watching shootouts but I, like most fans, am sick of them determining standings. So I support any change there. If they really wanted to they could add an exhibition shootout to the end of games.

Hybrid icing is something that they really need to test to see if it will work or not. In theory it is a good compromise. It's not about who get to the faceoff dot first, it's about who crosses that plane first and thus is more likely to get to the puck first. At least that's my understanding. I'd reserve judgment here until some test runs, likely they'd have to give it a season in the AHL first. It's definitely an interesting idea to me and will cut down on injuries while still allowing the race, so long as players are actually skating in a line towards the puck rather than skating directly to the faceoff circle.

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08-14-2011, 06:00 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by drew5580 View Post
this would be kinda radical, but id like to see how this would change the game. what if you couldnt change lines when killing a penalty. i think penalty killing has gotten much better over the years and i think this would eliminate a lot of the stupid penalties during the game. so you might see more effective power plays but less penalties.
Not changing lines after a an icing is one thing but to tell a team that they can't change lines for two minutes AND when they are down a man will cause so many issues it won't happen.

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08-14-2011, 09:21 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by THamps View Post
I've always liked the idea of 3 points total always being awarded per game:

Win in regulation: 3pts
Loss in regulation: 0pts
Win after regulation: 2pts
Loss after regulation: 1pt

I haven't formed an opinion on how I think a winner should be decided after regulation... I don't like ties though.
That's exactly how things should be handled. Every game is a 3 point game. Right now you have 2 and 3 point games. That is stupid.

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08-15-2011, 08:28 AM
  #46
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
- 4 minute 4on4 OT, then 3on3...no more shootout. I hate the shootout, and would love 4 on 4...but 3 on 3 is bordering on "it's not hockey anymore" just like with the shootout.
Love this idea. More hockey, less shootout. Also how about taking the OT rules further. Make this addition in the last five games of the regular season: If a game in which both teams are in playoff position or within 5 points of a playoff position, are tied at the end of regulation, the game will be decided by continous sudden death overtime. The Flyers/Rangers game that went to a shootout to decide the final playoff spot in the East two years ago was a travesty.

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- hybrid icing, where the linesmen judge based on the faceoff dots and who gets there first, not to the puck... I like this concept - but will "judgement calls" be a bad thing for the game?
No more referee judgment calls. Almost all penalty calls are already judgment calls which is why NHL officiating is the worst of the four major sports.

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- removing goalie trapezoid... doesn't do anything for us, because our goalie is not a puck handler...but does bring back a skill to the game that, for those fortunate enough to possess, is a real asset and a big-time alleviation on defensemen who get the **** kicked out of them going into the corners for every puck
I like it. It's always fun to watch a goalie screw up in the corners and lead to a goal. Unfortunately that goalie is Miller too often.

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- No icing the puck shorthanded.... might as well hand teams a goal instead of a PP opportunity...and might as well hand shot blockers like Volchenkov 8.5M$/yr deals. Is this a joke? Penalty Killing is a facet of the game, and a good penalty killer can clear the puck. How does this even remotely come close to bettering the game?
Awful.

Also, I agree with the all games should be 3pts scoring system.

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08-15-2011, 10:32 AM
  #47
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No icing on the PK is just gimmick to inflate the amount of goals scored. Further pussifying the sport. As well as further encouraging diving, embellishing and pest type play.

Just when we have physical and nasty players in the system. The NHL comes up with this chestnut.
wait, you're saying that PREVENTING icing would "pussify" the sport? By increasing the amount of puck-handling required by a PK? Wouldn't this put more of an emphasis on physical play and puck control?

You ask ten people what is more physical: Four big guys controlling the puck and passing it around, playing keep away while frustrating their opponent, OR one guy frantically whaling on the puck to kill time on the PK and I think the answer will be pretty clear.

The Sabres are BETTER equipped this season than they would have been last season to deal with this chestnut, precisely because of physical players on the D.

and that's without getting int the specious generalization that this would encourage diving." Which is a completely bogus claim as if properly enforced by the refs, is already on the rule books as a penalty also. So even in the situation where it did increase diving, fortunately we have a rule that could be enforced and effectively limit it.

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08-15-2011, 03:15 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by aaronin View Post
wait, you're saying that PREVENTING icing would "pussify" the sport? By increasing the amount of puck-handling required by a PK? Wouldn't this put more of an emphasis on physical play and puck control?

You ask ten people what is more physical: Four big guys controlling the puck and passing it around, playing keep away while frustrating their opponent, OR one guy frantically whaling on the puck to kill time on the PK and I think the answer will be pretty clear.

The Sabres are BETTER equipped this season than they would have been last season to deal with this chestnut, precisely because of physical players on the D.
Completely missing my point.

Not allowing icing on the PK makes it MUCH harder to PK and much easier to score on the PP. Thus increasing the impact of PPs on games since scoring will without question go up on the PP if this is implimented.

You talk about how fans get excited when one player can kill a bunch of time. Or a few players play keep away. That rarely happens on PKs and its a tad foolish to think thats a viable alternative to icing over the course of a game/season to kill off penalties. The vast majority of PKing success comes from icing the puck. On 5-3 and 4-3 its almost entirely blocking passing lanes, blocking shots and icing the puck when possible.

If the threat of icing is taken away it would also be harder for a PKing player to even skate the puck out to begin with. Since the team on the PP wil just challenge the defending player knowing full well he can't ice the puck. Half the time a player is able to skate the puck out on a PK is due to the PP team backing off expecting him to ice the puck.

On top of that you have 4 guys or in some cases 3 (an even more absurd mismatch if the icing option is taken away) skating their ***** off to try and prevent a goal. If they can't ice the puck it makes it incredible hard to impossible to change exhausted PKers.

Essentially you tilt things heavily in favor of the PP team. Thus creating a gimmick to produce more goals. The PP already has an advantage of an extra man (or two). How about we let them still have to work to score on the PP.

You want to improve the game. Improve the flow of the game. I'll take a well played back and forth game thats 2-1 over 5-4 game with 8 PP goals.

Getting back to why this will decrease physical play and "pussify" the sport. You basically take the physical edge out of several teams and players by making the punishment for that type of play more severe than it was in the past. A PP becomes a far deadlier thing to deal with so teams will be reluctant to play with a nasty physical edge. It will also encourage the divers/embellishers to ratched up their nonsense as well as have more players get involved in that type of nonsense. Since the rewards for drawing a penalty will be greater than before.

WIth a kid like Kassian almost ready to play in the NHL. The last thing I want is for it to be very hard for him to use all aspects of his game.

I like the barely contained rage/aggression of the game (among many other aspects). This rule would change would be one more small chipping away at that aspect of the game.

Quote:
and that's without getting int the specious generalization that this would encourage diving." Which is a completely bogus claim as if properly enforced by the refs, is already on the rule books as a penalty also. So even in the situation where it did increase diving, fortunately we have a rule that could be enforced and effectively limit it

What fantasy world are you in where the officials are good at cracking down on diving/embellishing? Did you not watch the Nucks on their way to the Cup Finals?

The diving rule has been there for years and there have been "crackdowns" on it as well. It doesn't stop it at all. The sport is too fast and the players too good at making things seem legit for the refs to effectively deal with it.


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Old
08-15-2011, 03:16 PM
  #49
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All bad ideas except the so call trapezoid removal. To many D getting killed retrieving pucks.

The goalie is a player also, so who ever thought about restricting his puck handling should be sent to deep Siberia.
Goalies ruin the forecheck though. Most goalies, except ours, are competent at handling the puck now. They can pretty much all go, stop it and flick it up the boards. More time spent in the neutral zone = terrible.

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08-15-2011, 03:18 PM
  #50
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Absolutely prefer ties.
You are part of what I would describe as a MINUSCULE minority.

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