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Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik VUKOTA

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08-24-2011, 02:50 PM
  #1
RangerBoy
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Brad Richards and Marian Gaborik VUKOTA

ESPN.com Insider

Hockey Sabremetrics. This guy https://twitter.com/#!/timoseppa does the numbers

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=68

http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/arti...?articleid=233

Quote:
Trending down: C Brad Richards
Last season: 17.5 GVT | VUKOTA projection: 14.0 GVT
Quote:
That said, VUKOTA sees a potential drop-off based both on age and the fact that Richards recorded his highest shooting percentage since 2003-04 last season (10.3 percent vs. an 8.8 percent career average).
Statistical mumbo jumbo. Puts a big emphasis on shooting %. As a comparision,Malkin has a projected Vukota of 9.5 GVT from 3.5 GVT last season. They have MA Fluery dropping from 22.2 GVT to 7.8 GVT.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nhl/story...2011-12-season

That Corey Pronman features a name to watch. Tim Erixon

Quote:
That's not to say he's on the same level as Larsson, but I wouldn't say he's that far off. Erixon was also one of the top shutdown defenders for Team Sweden at the World Championships.

He's one of the elite defensive prospects in the game, with off-the-charts hockey sense, top-end shutdown ability, fine mobility and can move the puck at a high level. He still has to bulk up a little, but he doesn't shy from the physical game.

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08-24-2011, 02:55 PM
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Still not that familiar with advanced hockey statistics. However, shooting percentages DO tend to regress towards the mean when you see an outlier. It's why I predicted that Avery would rebound to 10-12 goals and that Gaborik would be fine if his shoulder was no longer bothering him.

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08-24-2011, 03:23 PM
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If healthy, Richards and Gaborik are GREAT players. Perhaps they wont click 5 on 5 but on the power play?? Watch out, it could be lethal.

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08-24-2011, 03:27 PM
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Can't wait to watch Tim Erixon play.

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08-24-2011, 03:38 PM
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ChrisKreider20
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Sounds like technical analysis, and we all know thats garbage.

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08-24-2011, 03:44 PM
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Swept In Seven
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I am really excited to see Erixon play

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08-24-2011, 03:47 PM
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KreiMeARiver
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Sabremetrics is a joke, and doesn't work. How did it work out for the A's after those 3 pitchers left?

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08-24-2011, 03:51 PM
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I thought this was gonna be commentary on Gabby and Richie from Mick Vukota, the old Isles dude.

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08-24-2011, 04:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Hightide85 View Post
Sabremetrics is a joke, and doesn't work. How did it work out for the A's after those 3 pitchers left?
It's one thing to say advanced stats aren't really great in a sport like hockey. But in a sport like baseball where the stats are pretty much all controlled by individuals you had better believe they work. The A's didn't stop winning because sabremetrics don't work. They stopped winning because other teams caught up and passed them in methodology. The most consistently successful baseball teams are the ones that combine advanced stats, scouting, and big market dollars.

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08-24-2011, 04:08 PM
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Originally Posted by PromNite View Post
I thought this was gonna be commentary on Gabby and Richie from Mick Vukota, the old Isles dude.
Hahahaha same here man. We must be old :x

Add me to the list of those very excited to see Erixon in the NHL.

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08-24-2011, 04:49 PM
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Richards probably wont be shooting nearly as much because he will be playing along side a top five goal scorer if healthy.

He could score 20 goals, and rack up 60-70 assists (80-90 points).

The whole idea is for him to be that elite playmaker. Not a scorer.

Richards never had a scorer like Gaborik in his NHL career. And Gaborik never had a passer like Richards in his NHL career.

You can't break down a free flowing, non linear sport like hockey, with sabremetrics.

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08-24-2011, 05:39 PM
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Richards + Gaborik probably = decrease in goals for Richards but a healthy increase for Gaborik as well as whoever gets that LW spot.

As far as the statistics goal, I find them incomprehensible

Also made a Mick Vukota connection here!

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08-24-2011, 05:43 PM
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Richards and Gabby, if they click, will put up between 70-80 points. Looking at both of their careers, this is the point range that they average in, and honestly, thats more than good enough for me.

I think if we expect 80-90 points we will all be disappointed.

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08-24-2011, 05:55 PM
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Jabroni
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I definitely thought that this had something to do with the player Vukota.

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08-24-2011, 06:08 PM
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Very confusing and most likely irrelevant.

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08-24-2011, 06:13 PM
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Sabremetrics in hockey isn't the same as sabremetrics in baseball. Too many variables to count in hockey IMO since the number of hits, blocked shots, linemates, line changes, etc are too difficult to value as it's own statistics.

I think CORSI is complete BS, I tend to ignore that. But I compare GA/60 with the QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM to determine if the player is plausible at both ends of the ice.

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08-24-2011, 06:17 PM
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Didn't even know there was Sabre stats for hockey.

I mean, it makes sense anyway. With an elite goalscorer next to him, Richards should be looking less for the shot. But even if he scores 20-25 goals that's more than fine from him.

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08-24-2011, 09:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by msv957 View Post
If healthy, Richards and Gaborik are GREAT players. Perhaps they wont click 5 on 5 but on the power play?? Watch out, it could be lethal.
Health and heart are two different things.

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08-24-2011, 11:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abev View Post
Health and heart are two different things.
We get it, you think Gabby is heartless.

Give it a rest.

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08-24-2011, 11:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kershaw View Post
Sabremetrics in hockey isn't the same as sabremetrics in baseball. Too many variables to count in hockey IMO since the number of hits, blocked shots, linemates, line changes, etc are too difficult to value as it's own statistics.

I think CORSI is complete BS, I tend to ignore that. But I compare GA/60 with the QUALCOMP and QUALTEAM to determine if the player is plausible at both ends of the ice.
Basically.

I've done a lot of reasarch into Sabremetrics in hockey. It can be useful as a means to complement the foundation of what you are seeing but it can never generate accurate results if viewed in a vacuum.

For instance: I've watched every Rangers game the past couple of seasons. Therefore, I wasn't surprised to see that Matt Gilroy was one of the NHL leaders in terms percentage of shifts started in the offensive zone. It reenforced what I had observed visually: that Torts was very uncomfortable with Gilroy in any sort of defensive situation.

I bought the Hockey Prospectus book that was published prior to last season. Sabre stats in hockey just don't work well as predictors of future performance. Too many variables. It's just too difficult to isolate any type of performance factor. Linemates, competition, coaching decisions, injuries, refereeing... there's just too much interference.

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08-25-2011, 10:42 AM
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If he's got the stamina, Erixon will push his way into the top4 by the end of the year.

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