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Who will become a starting goalie first?

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Old
09-05-2011, 02:13 PM
  #26
TMI
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Tough to say really.

Oh by the way, the Preds don't just simply let goalies walk when they want a raise. When they are worth it they get paid. Vokoun got his raise, but Leipold forced Poile to trade him before the NTC kicked in. Mason was easily replacable. Ellis was easily replacable. Neither are starter material. Rinne was given his raise, and likely won't see much more than $5.5m on his next deal. Considering he is making $4m in salary this year I would say that money shouldn't be hard to find. But hey, no need in letting reality get in the way of a good smear...

FWIW, Nashville's incompetent owners have turned a club that hemorrhaged money into a team that turns a profit, and they have turned the Bridgestone Arena into one of the busiest venues in the world. I can't wait until the team gets some competent owners


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09-05-2011, 02:18 PM
  #27
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Jonathan Bernier.

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Old
09-05-2011, 02:19 PM
  #28
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Why do people think Bernier will take the starting job from Quick? He's already proven himself.

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09-05-2011, 02:35 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Aquiace View Post
Why do people think Bernier will take the starting job from Quick? He's already proven himself.
... Because the difference in performance between the two goalies was minimal, and neither goalie has shown himself to be clearly superior to the other? My feeling for the last couple years is that if Bernier gets the chance (and that's always a big "if" with the Kings because the Kings like to do dumb things), Bernier will be the one who ends up being the better goalie.

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09-05-2011, 02:36 PM
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09-05-2011, 02:42 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by JT Dutch View Post
... Because the difference in performance between the two goalies was minimal, and neither goalie has shown himself to be clearly superior to the other? My feeling for the last couple years is that if Bernier gets the chance (and that's always a big "if" with the Kings because the Kings like to do dumb things), Bernier will be the one who ends up being the better goalie.
Maybe I'm alone then thinking Quick actually might be the better choice. Not that Bernier would be a bad decision by a long shot. They'd be fine with either, but I was very impressed with how Quick has handled the playoffs.

I guess the last two playoffs really put Quick as the guy in my mind. It just seemed all they really needed was some more offense up front.

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09-05-2011, 02:47 PM
  #32
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... Hilarity at its finest.
I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious? You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?

Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.


I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.

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Old
09-05-2011, 03:18 PM
  #33
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious? You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?

Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.


I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.
Lindback is good and all, but Rinne will play around 75 games and Lindback might play 15. Rinne was the Pred's MVP last year, and Lindback won't get that chance for a while.

I honestly don't see Lindback becoming a star goalie, but I am excited to see what Cambell can do in Dallas.

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09-05-2011, 03:44 PM
  #34
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Lindback is good and all, but Rinne will play around 75 games and Lindback might play 15. Rinne was the Pred's MVP last year, and Lindback won't get that chance for a while.

I honestly don't see Lindback becoming a star goalie, but I am excited to see what Cambell can do in Dallas.
Why don't you see Lindback becoming a star goalie? What exactly about his game do you think is lacking?

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09-05-2011, 03:52 PM
  #35
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Why don't you see Lindback becoming a star goalie? What exactly about his game do you think is lacking?
Maybe he was just rusty, or maybe I'm picking out his inexperience, but towards the end of the season he played in a few games, and didn't really seem to have "it". He gave up a ton of rebounds, and his glove hand wasn't as sharp as it could have been.

Again, it's probably just me picking on the new guy, but I see him more of a 1B kind of guy. I would love to be wrong though. I think a lot of people see his size, and assume he'll be the next Rinne, or something.

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09-05-2011, 04:08 PM
  #36
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious? You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?

Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.


I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.
The difference between a .915 sv% and a .930sv% is the difference between an average NHL starter and All-Star having an amazing year. 1.64% more saves per game really adds up over the total of a whole season.

Lindback is unproven, while Rinne is established as very possibly the best goalie behind Thomas at the moment. You don't let those kind of guys go for nothing. Or at least you shouldn't, because Nashville probably will.

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09-05-2011, 04:11 PM
  #37
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The guy is a top 3 goalie in the NHL. Lindback has played a handful of games.

Nasvhille will probably tell Rinne he's worth 4M
Shea, you're our captain, one of the best defenders in the league and a franchise player. You're our best all-round defenseman and our most important player.

We're offering you 4.5 million short term. Take it or leave it.


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09-05-2011, 04:15 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by SJSharks2010 View Post
Shea, you're our captain, one of the best defenders in the league and a franchise player. You're our best all-round defenseman and our most important player.

We're offering you 4.5 million short term. Take it or leave it.

It's so sad that people still do not understand what an arbitration negotiation process is.

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09-05-2011, 04:17 PM
  #39
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Lindback is unproven, while Rinne is established as very possibly the best goalie behind Thomas at the moment. You don't let those kind of guys go for nothing. Or at least you shouldn't, because Nashville probably will.
If Rinne keeps it up, I don't think they will let him go. But its unrealistic to expect him to put up .930 consistently for the next couple of years.

I don't think overpaying in a small market is the right move. If you can get almost as good goaltending for cheaper, when you are financially strapped, I think you shed the salary and get younger. If you can get assets in the process, then you do so.

I think its effective management and its why Poillie is considered one of the better GM's in the league. I disagree with your comment about their ownership not being competent, which is why I responded. I think they've got a quality ownership group and one of the decent ones in the league.

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Old
09-05-2011, 04:18 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by Paranoid Android View Post
It's so sad that people still do not understand what an arbitration negotiation process is.
Yea, after reading that comment, I'm basically done debating with him. He obviously doesn't understand the business side of hockey.

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09-05-2011, 04:19 PM
  #41
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If Rinne keeps it up, I don't think they will let him go. But its unrealistic to expect him to put up .930 consistently for the next couple of years.

I don't think overpaying in a small market is the right move. If you can get almost as good goaltending for cheaper, when you are financially strapped, I think you shed the salary and get younger. If you can get assets in the process, then you do so.

I think its effective management and its why Poillie is considered one of the better GM's in the league. I disagree with your comment about their ownership not being competent, which is why I responded. I think they've got a quality ownership group and one of the decent ones in the league.
They're management is quality. Poile is one of the best GM's in the game today. The ownership refuses to spend, it's all about the cash.

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Old
09-05-2011, 04:20 PM
  #42
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It's so sad that people still do not understand what an arbitration negotiation process is.
You're supposed to start at a reasonable number. If a team offers someone who is easily worth 6.5 minimum 4.5, their offer is basicly ignored because it's so ridiculous. If they'd come in at, let's say 6 million, things may have gone a bit better for Nashville.

Yes Weber demanded too much by asking for 8, but it was much closer to the likely outcome than Nashville's.


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Old
09-05-2011, 04:21 PM
  #43
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Yea, after reading that comment, I'm basically done debating with him. He obviously doesn't understand the business side of hockey.
Someone's ********.

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09-05-2011, 04:33 PM
  #44
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Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.

I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.
1.64% more saves than another goaltender, over 1900 shots (how many Rinne faced in 64 games last season), is 31 goals, which is about 5 wins. Five wins is 10 points... So if their roles last season were reversed, Nashville would have finished with 109 points. That would have put them 2nd in the West (facing LA, then probably the winner of Anaheim & Detroit). That would have meant possibly getting into the 3rd round (Nashville was VERY good vs. Detroit, and they already beat Anaheim). That would have meant Nashville could have made their first conference finals, and how much more money for the team, and how much higher might their budget have been this year?

These "small differences" between a 0.930 and 0.915 sv% goaltender add up to a hell of a lot of money for the team. That's why a consistent 0.930sv% goalie is probably worth $5m+ and a 0.915sv% goalie might find himself replaced as the starter (see: Bobrovsky).

Furthermore, actually going deeper into goaltender save percentage, 1) their even strength save percentage is much more indicative of their actual talent level (because SHG/PPGs are affected much more by the team, both in personnel and system), and 2) Lindback has started 18 games. That means the data you're extrapolating with is pretty much useless. Want proof? Lindback was at 0.930 at even strength. Rinne was at 0.932. Either Lindback is just barely behind Rinne's talent level, and better than Ward, Fleury, Miller, Quick, and Vokoun... or that number isn't very accurate.

There's more to understanding numbers than understanding 'math'

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09-05-2011, 04:34 PM
  #45
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Lindbäck will be a starting goalie after this year. Preds have got so many good things coming up, so they will either commit to Rinne and use Lindbäck as a trade chip, or let Rinne go and go with Lindbäck.

Enroth and Bobrovsky, just like Schneider, can only hope that they play well enough to warrant a trade to an open position given the situation they're in playing behind goalies that their respective clubs have commited so much to.

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09-05-2011, 04:40 PM
  #46
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That's why a consistent 0.930sv% goalie is probably worth $5m+ and a 0.915sv% goalie might find himself replaced as the starter (see: Bobrovsky).
There is no such thing as a consistent .930 sv% goalie yet.

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09-05-2011, 04:43 PM
  #47
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Maybe I'm alone then thinking Quick actually might be the better choice. Not that Bernier would be a bad decision by a long shot. They'd be fine with either, but I was very impressed with how Quick has handled the playoffs.

I guess the last two playoffs really put Quick as the guy in my mind. It just seemed all they really needed was some more offense up front.
... Quick DID have a better playoff last season as opposed to 2010, where he was brilliant in flashes but poor overall. His save percentage in postseason play is .900, and regardless of the extraneous factors (like the quality of shots he was facing), a number like .900 isn't going to get it done. It just won't.

Quick is capable of hot streaks within a game or a series of games, for sure. But he's also prone to the soft goal, probably more so than almost any other goalie in the game. He's also a terrible puckhandler, which costs his team more goals and chances that, at times, lead to still more goals against. Even at this stage, having seen him play so many games, I don't really know that he's the right choice as the #1 guy for years to come.

Bernier, once he shook off the initial discomfort and unfamiliarity with being the backup, played consistently well from that point until the end of the season. All I'm asking here is to really take a good look at him, and to give him a chance to prove that he can belong in this league as a #1 before giving up on him. He's done everything the organization's asked of him up to this point; he's earned the chance to play at least 35-40 games and be a 1B to Quick's 1A. He should have gotten that opportunity last season, but Terry Murray is known for handling goalies poorly and that opportunity didn't materialize.

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I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious?
... Damn, I actually thought you were joking. You were serious???

That makes your quote twice as hilarious, actually.

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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?
... "Decent goaltending" is not what Rinne provided for Nashville last season. It was excellent goaltending. And yes, a goaltender in his prime with a .920 career save percentage and a .930 mark last season has a good chance in my mind of putting up a number somewhere around .925 to .930 again.

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Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.
... With the parity in this league, what that means is over the course of a season those several goals could make the difference between winning a one goal game in regulation and having to go to a shootout, or the difference between going to a shootout and losing in regulation. In turn, that could make the difference between going to the playoffs and being on the outside looking in.

And, that's saying nothing about the mental state of a team playing in front of an excellent goalie as opposed to playing in front of a decent one. Or, in this case, the mental state of a team playing in front of a Vezina runner-up as opposed to playing in front of a guy who has all of 22 NHL games under his belt. I'm surprised you can't or won't see this.

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09-05-2011, 04:45 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious? You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?

Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.


I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.
The difference between Rinne having a .930 save% and a .915 is 28 goals. So the difference is actually the Preds making the playoffs and not making the playoffs, because unless those 28 goals are split up over just two games resulting in only two extra losses (because a couple of 14-0 losses is totally realistic, right?), they're not going to beat Dallas or even Calgary out for that last spot. (argh! Somebody beat me to that point, oh well)

Rinne just had an amazing season last year, and I doubt he repeats those numbers consistently, but he did prove one thing, and that is that he is a very good goalie that is going to be worth some money to someone. I like Lindback, I REALLY like him, and Lindback may be good enough to soften the blow of losing Rinne, if they do, but he most likely won't just instantly replace him and be at that same level, so are you willing to risk the playoffs for a few million dollars saved? I don't envy Poile when he has to make that decision.


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09-05-2011, 04:47 PM
  #49
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I'll go with Campbell
Definitely. I don't see any of the other starters leaving soon.

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09-05-2011, 04:58 PM
  #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
I'm curious, why do you think its hilarious? You don't think its in the realm of possibility that Lindback can provide decent goaltending? Do you expect Rinne to put up a .930 again next year?

Do you understand math? Having a .930 save percentage is only making 1.64% more saves than someone who has a .915 sv%. They are VERY close mathematically speaking.


I expect Rinne to play more in the .920 to .925 range next year. I think Lindback can play in the .910 to .920 range. That is pretty close mathematically speaking.
I'm assuming you also believe that .999 is only slightly better than .990 right? Because it's only .9% more saves?

A goalie with a .915 save percentage lets in 21.43% more goals than a goalie with a .930 save percentage. The difference between .930 and .915 is the same as the difference between .915 and .8965.

How much does a team improve from having the worst starter in the league to having a middle of the pack one? It's quite significant. That's the same amount a team improves by going from .915 to .930

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