I hope you're wrong on your Oiler predictions, lol.
Honestly I hope i'm wrong on hemsky, but being injured two years in a row, it's hard to gauge whether he can stay injury free and where his game will be. Like I said, i hope I'm wrong too. Paajarvi, Gagner and Smyth are coming up soon!
I think van Riemsdyk will score more then 48 points if he plays 76 games. You only gave him 5 more goals and 3 more assists. I expect him to score in the 60s this season due in large part because I believe his ice time will go from 14:32/gm (last season) to 18+/gm with ~2M of that increase to be on the PP.
Plus, he will probably be on Giroux's line, a 94 point player this year (I think that's a little high... I'll say about 82 points for Giroux, and 70 points for JVR)
I'm a Jagr homer so most will bash me for this but I don't see Jagr playing less than 70 games. If one goes by this PPG projection of Jagr (63 Pts in 62 games) I say he'll be closer to 75 games played and 80-90 Pts.
Last edited by livewell68: 09-09-2011 at 05:04 PM.
I never understood these rankings. I guarantee none of them put in the time to understand where each player is at in the development of their offensive game and who they'll be playing with next year.
For example: Malkin will be playing with the best linemates he's ever had and will be coming off a very long offsesason where he's stronger than before. 76 pts in 68 games?
J. Staal was on pace for nearly 60 pts last year after having no training camp and missing half the year before being thrown in as the 1C with Sid/Geno out. Now he'll get his chance at 2C with kunitz and kennedy playing behind Geno. 48 pts?
I agree with those that say the games played should have been standardized to 82 for all players.
Some magazines do that standardization and it annoys me to no end. If there's any sort of skill in predicting G/A/Pts there's also a skill in predicting GP. I wouldn't understand a predicted freak injury for a guy to miss 25 games either, but I sure think it'd be weird if Hemsky or Pitkanen were penciled in for 82 GP. Besides, you can recover the 82-GP point total from this list, but you (obviously) wouldn't be able to recover the predicted GP from a standardized list.
As for the list, I like it but some of the guys seem off. For players taken in isolation it works but for some teams it doesn't. Voracek and Van Riemsdyk can't be that low if Giroux and Brière are that high (and I think PPG pace for Jagr is high). Fleischmann won't outscore Weiss...
you still have Zajac at 82 GP (out several months), and Kesler's status is still uncertain.
Removed Zajac from the rankings, overlooked his Achilles injury. Kesler remains there as he's a warrior. He will probably miss some time, but i'll wait until i get a better perpective on his injury before i decide where to place him in the rankings.
Duchene is dead on imo, I ad him right between 75-80, Jones is good at 50, I had him at 32/23, But Stastny is to low, unless the Avs go on another ridiculously bad streak like last year, and his linemates get injured, he will be back to a PPG, hes had a PPG season every year except last year, and last year was just generally a bad year for the Avs, with Jones and Landeskog playing on his wings instead of Porter/Yip, he will be ALOT more effective, I have him at 28/49 for 77 Points.
List is good though, Dont think Crosby will play 50 games this year, but like you have said, injuries are impossible to predict!