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2011 Capitals Roster Speculation, Thoughts, & Expectations (Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap)

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Old
10-05-2011, 12:30 PM
  #251
txpd
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i think semin's taste in contract security is interesting. he likes to resign early but seems fine with a one year contract. anyway....semin's first half will say a lot about his future with the caps. he will resign by early february or won't be resigned at all.

just for reference. last season he signed on january 27th. the season before he resigned on december 26th.

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10-05-2011, 12:33 PM
  #252
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Not for a 2nd line winger. He's not a guy you'd want to be your main scoring threat.
He's not a guy you want to be your main scoring threat on any given line. Semin is the primary driver of the team's secondary offense. You can't replace him with supporting players who may technically be second-liners. That applies to at least Kunitz as well.

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10-05-2011, 12:35 PM
  #253
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He's not a guy you want to be your main scoring threat on any given line. Semin is the primary driver of the team's secondary offense. You can't replace him with supporting players who may technically be second-liners. That applies to at least Kunitz as well.
Again, he's absolutely fine as a second liner. Very, very few teams have a second line scoring threat the likes of Semin.

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10-05-2011, 12:46 PM
  #254
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which would suggest a reason to hope semin stays. right? i have no problem with a smyth or kunitz in a knuble or brouwer role, but not as a replacement for semin. if semin leaves, my guess is that kuznetsov takes his role. brouwer, ward and very likely knuble remain.

if knuble retires, a doan or kunitz might be great

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10-05-2011, 12:56 PM
  #255
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My stance is that the Smyth types offer things that Semin doesn't, and those things make up for the skill gap. I'd be perfectly happy with ~70 goals from the second line, if they're able to do things like maintain the cycle, establish a forecheck, bring a physical presence, and play with consistent effort and defensive responsibility.

And Doan would be a wonderful direct replacement for Semin. He's out-produced Semin 2 of the last 4 seasons and brings a ton more to the ice.

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10-05-2011, 12:57 PM
  #256
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Originally Posted by txpd View Post
i think semin's taste in contract security is interesting. he likes to resign early but seems fine with a one year contract. anyway....semin's first half will say a lot about his future with the caps. he will resign by early february or won't be resigned at all.

just for reference. last season he signed on january 27th. the season before he resigned on december 26th.
I can't think of any reason why they should sign him during the season. It can wait.

If Semin goes it will be crucial to finally address the 2C spot with a stable presence that can make their wingers better offensively. Not easy to do but building a team the right way isn't always convenient.

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10-05-2011, 01:01 PM
  #257
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Doan loves his horses and his ranch, that's been a big reason he's made such a commitment to Phoenix. I see him re-signing there.

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10-05-2011, 01:03 PM
  #258
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Doan loves his horses and his ranch, that's been a big reason he's made such a commitment to Phoenix. I see him re-signing there.
I'm just holding out hope that the purse-strings are tight in Phoenix, and they won't pay him.

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10-05-2011, 01:08 PM
  #259
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Originally Posted by BrooklynCapsFan View Post
Doan loves his horses and his ranch, that's been a big reason he's made such a commitment to Phoenix. I see him re-signing there.
If there is a "there" to re-sign with, that is.

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10-05-2011, 01:51 PM
  #260
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
Again, he's absolutely fine as a second liner. Very, very few teams have a second line scoring threat the likes of Semin.
And those very, very few teams are almost all cup contenders. And really the only cup contender who doesn't have a weapon like that is Boston, who still has Patrice Bergeron on their second line.
Pittsburgh - Malkin
Los Angeles - Richards
Detroit - Zetterberg
Philadelphia - Briere
Vancouver - Kesler
Anaheim - Selanne
Chicago - Kane, Hossa

You don't win Cups with pedestrian second lines. Smyth isn't a quality 2W for a legit contender at this point. Especially if that 2nd line doesn't have another major scoring threat to create space and chances for Smyth. Doan I could accept, but he's not going to leave Phoenix. Unless Johansson or Perreault take a huge step forward this season and become 60+ point players who can carry a scoring line, we absolutely need a player like Semin on our second line if we want to be serious cup contenders.

And if we're discussing 2012 UFA wingers, I'd rather go for David Jones than Smyth or Ruutu. Parise and Hemsky are the only ones who should even be near the conversation of replacing Semin, though.

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10-05-2011, 02:07 PM
  #261
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Originally Posted by Langway View Post
I can't think of any reason why they should sign him during the season. It can wait..
same could have been said the last two times semin has been extended. i am fairly sure that if semin shows mcphee the things mcphee has asked of him, that mcphee will sign him up around new years as has happened.
if semin is unsigned at the end of the season, he is not staying.

the better green looks, the more likely he is extended early as well.

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10-05-2011, 02:19 PM
  #262
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And those very, very few teams are almost all cup contenders. And really the only cup contender who doesn't have a weapon like that is Boston, who still has Patrice Bergeron on their second line.
Pittsburgh - Malkin
Los Angeles - Richards
Detroit - Zetterberg
Philadelphia - Briere
Vancouver - Kesler
Anaheim - Selanne
Chicago - Kane, Hossa

You don't win Cups with pedestrian second lines. Smyth isn't a quality 2W for a legit contender at this point. Especially if that 2nd line doesn't have another major scoring threat to create space and chances for Smyth. Doan I could accept, but he's not going to leave Phoenix. Unless Johansson or Perreault take a huge step forward this season and become 60+ point players who can carry a scoring line, we absolutely need a player like Semin on our second line if we want to be serious cup contenders.

And if we're discussing 2012 UFA wingers, I'd rather go for David Jones than Smyth or Ruutu. Parise and Hemsky are the only ones who should even be near the conversation of replacing Semin, though.
David Jones has broken 20 points once in his career, and you'd rather have him than Smyth or Ruutu?

I never said Smyth would have to carry the second line offense. There are other directions you could go in with the money saved by not bringing back Semin. Let's say you let Semin walk and use his money to sign Smyth and then trade for someone like Weiss. Smyth-Weiss-Laich is absolutely good enough to be the 2nd line of a Cup winner. Smyth is fine as a 2W on a Cup contender.

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10-05-2011, 02:25 PM
  #263
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I'm in big doubt about Kuznetsov's ability to replace Semin.

Semin possesses NHL caliber shot (top world class actually) and has bigger frame with adult muscle mass.

Kuznetsov without much mass and big shot from the distance will be finesse perimeter player for some time (until he's mature enough physically). That's not the solution for 2nd line (especially if there is not that big of a human MoJo).

That's why I think Kuz will play with OV.

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10-05-2011, 02:30 PM
  #264
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Raikkonen View Post
I'm in big doubt about Kuznetsov's ability to replace Semin.

Semin possesses NHL caliber shot (top world class actually) and has bigger frame with adult muscle mass.

Kuznetsov without much mass and big shot from the distance will be finesse perimeter player for some time (until he's mature enough physically). That's not the solution for 2nd line (especially if there is not that big of a human MoJo).

That's why I think Kuz will play with OV.
Kuz playing with AO doesn't make much sense IMO just because he'll be facing the top D pairing on the opposing team especially regarding your assertion of lack of mass. Still think he'd be perfect one the 2nd line considering he's playing another year in a mens league and, if he remains healthy, another off season training before coming to the caps.

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10-05-2011, 02:42 PM
  #265
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Off topic Q:

Is Green going to be paired with Hamrlik or Schultz?

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10-05-2011, 02:43 PM
  #266
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Off topic Q:

Is Green going to be paired with Hamrlik or Schultz?
BB seems determined to never give Green a solid vet D to play with...

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10-05-2011, 02:46 PM
  #267
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Originally Posted by NobodyBeatsTheWiz View Post
David Jones has broken 20 points once in his career, and you'd rather have him than Smyth or Ruutu?
Yup. Jones battled the injury bug early in his career, but is coming off of his first full season. He's scored 37 goals in his last 100 NHL GP over the past two seasons, including 27 goals last year. He's pretty much the player we wanted Eric Fehr to become.

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I never said Smyth would have to carry the second line offense. There are other directions you could go in with the money saved by not bringing back Semin. Let's say you let Semin walk and use his money to sign Smyth and then trade for someone like Weiss. Smyth-Weiss-Laich is absolutely good enough to be the 2nd line of a Cup winner. Smyth is fine as a 2W on a Cup contender.
Smyth-Weiss-Laich doesn't even come close to the lines the three previous cup winners have had.

Marchand - Bergeron - Recchi
Brouwer - Sharp - Hossa
Fedotenko - Malkin - Talbot

You're going to tell me that a line built around Weiss is even on the same planet as those? Cup winners have difference makers on their 2nd line.

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10-05-2011, 02:46 PM
  #268
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BB seems determined to never give Green a solid vet D to play with...
You know...this is really starting to piss me off because its so god dammed true.

They finally....finally ****ing get a guy like Hannan last season...and nothing. Now that have Hamrlik, who isn't quite the same as Hannan, but can play that kinda role...and that giant soft ass bean pole is going to play with 52 again.

I defend Bruce quite a bit...but not pairing Green with the kinda player he needs to be paired with is just annoying as ****.

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10-05-2011, 02:49 PM
  #269
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Originally Posted by Raikkonen View Post
I'm in big doubt about Kuznetsov's ability to replace Semin.

Semin possesses NHL caliber shot (top world class actually) and has bigger frame with adult muscle mass.

Kuznetsov without much mass and big shot from the distance will be finesse perimeter player for some time (until he's mature enough physically). That's not the solution for 2nd line (especially if there is not that big of a human MoJo).

That's why I think Kuz will play with OV.
Kuznetsov will not replace Semin's offensive #s his rookie season but his intangibles may help and his upside is just a high.

They can afford to let Semin walk next year, even more so if they get a top 5-10 pick.

I'm getting the impression that Semin doens't want to leave, though...

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10-05-2011, 02:54 PM
  #270
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BB seems determined to never give Green a solid vet D to play with...
That's my point. Can we expect to see much of the same or maybe finally give Green a vet.

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10-05-2011, 02:57 PM
  #271
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Yup. Jones battled the injury bug early in his career, but is coming off of his first full season. He's scored 37 goals in his last 100 NHL GP over the past two seasons, including 27 goals last year. He's pretty much the player we wanted Eric Fehr to become.


Smyth-Weiss-Laich doesn't even come close to the lines the three previous cup winners have had.

Marchand - Bergeron - Recchi
Brouwer - Sharp - Hossa
Fedotenko - Malkin - Talbot

You're going to tell me that a line built around Weiss is even on the same planet as those? Cup winners have difference makers on their 2nd line.
Yup. I'm going to tell you that a line built around Weiss is absolutely on the same planet as line 1, at least, and not far from line 3.

Weiss has averaged 67 points per year the last three years, on the freaking Panthers. Laich and Smyth have each averaged 53.

Recchi has hit 53 points once in the last 4 years. Fedotenko, Marchand, Brouwer, and Talbot have never reached that number.

It would be a line that's balanced, rather than having one player carry it. Again, it would be fine as a second line, especially because you could easily swap Backstrom and Weiss to spread out the scoring.

And on Jones, he also had a completely unsustainable shooting percentage of 17.6% last season. If he'd just had a good shooting percentage of 12% (which is still probably a bit high for him), he's have scored 18 goals. So you'd be looking at a 36 point player, rather than a 45 point player.

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10-05-2011, 03:00 PM
  #272
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You know...this is really starting to piss me off because its so god dammed true.

They finally....finally ****ing get a guy like Hannan last season...and nothing. Now that have Hamrlik, who isn't quite the same as Hannan, but can play that kinda role...and that giant soft ass bean pole is going to play with 52 again.

I defend Bruce quite a bit...but not pairing Green with the kinda player he needs to be paired with is just annoying as ****.
ive been calling for a steady vet partner since Poti arrived and BB refuses to give the kid someone to lean on and learn from.

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10-05-2011, 03:23 PM
  #273
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Hannan Green was such a logical pairing, ignoring the fact that the team tanked in their first few games together. But then you could see it click, Hannan seemed a perfect fit. Hannan would haul his slow poke ass over to help out Green at every chance. Slow down the forecheck, give Green an outlet when he was in trouble. The team turned around, and they were not together again, after Sarge got back from injury IIRC.

Instead, Sarge Green, well you know who is the heavy on defense. The guy that has to clear the crease and do pretty much everything, as Sarge stands and largely watches, and waits for the play to come to him. It is a skating league now, but Sarge plays like he cant skate. He can, they all can. I have seen him on his horse, a few times every year.

Watch for it, a dump to neutral spot, or Sarge will even be closer, and Sarge will make no effort whatsoever to get the puck. He looks sheepishly at Green, who hesitates at first, and then you can see him think, oh yeah, I have to do it all. Jeff "I ain't getting it" Schultz comes across as passive in almost every phase of the game to me, he wont even go after loose pucks unless he absolutely has to. Until he does that, he will never be a leader on his pairing nor on our defense.

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10-05-2011, 03:42 PM
  #274
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What do the Caps do if both Semin and Vokoun have monster years? Who goes?

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10-05-2011, 03:45 PM
  #275
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Yup. I'm going to tell you that a line built around Weiss is absolutely on the same planet as line 1, at least, and not far from line 3.

Weiss has averaged 67 points per year the last three years, on the freaking Panthers. Laich and Smyth have each averaged 53.

Recchi has hit 53 points once in the last 4 years. Fedotenko, Marchand, Brouwer, and Talbot have never reached that number.

It would be a line that's balanced, rather than having one player carry it. Again, it would be fine as a second line, especially because you could easily swap Backstrom and Weiss to spread out the scoring.
Malkin won the Conn Smythe. He carried that line, no doubt. But despite their relative lack of production in the regular season, Talbot and Fedotenko each put up 7+ goals in the post-season playing with him (which translates to a 23-25 goal regular season).
Bergeron and Marchand finished 2nd and 3rd on the Bruins in post-season scoring, with 20 and 19 points in 23 and 25GP respectively. Marchand's 11 goals trailed only Krejci's 12.

Weiss has put up 57 (assuming that was a typo in your post) points by playing first line minutes and big PP time. He wouldn't play 20min a night or get 3:30 of PP time for the Capitals. 38% of his points last season were on the powerplay. Even if we split up Nicky and Ovie at ES, Weiss still isn't going to see that kind of PP production on PP2.

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And on Jones, he also had a completely unsustainable shooting percentage of 17.6% last season. If he'd just had a good shooting percentage of 12% (which is still probably a bit high for him), he's have scored 18 goals. So you'd be looking at a 36 point player, rather than a 45 point player.
He shot 25.6% and 17% the two prior seasons. Small sample size, but he's starting to build a case he's one of those players with a high shooting% (see Brunette).

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