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Winnipeg Jets - Free Agents, Trades, Rumors, Speculation-It all goes here; Part IV

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Old
11-02-2011, 03:03 PM
  #276
BigTuna49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
Did you want to mention his poor (in comparison) numbers the year after, being 09-10 season as well? 38 points in 82 games. He even had relatively the same average icetime that season too.

Does that not count?

If you'd like to disregard what i'm saying and look at the numbers, that's fine. Numbers don't exactly tell the story, in my opinion. I was a Canes fan for years and when we dealt Ladd to Chicago for Ruutu, it didn't appear that Ladd was going to grow into the point producing power forward we'd drafted 4th overall. Granted he was still young when we moved him, he had been given a few opportunities in the top 6 and just didn't show enough to stick there. In Chicago he blossomed some more, it was a better situation for him and great fit for the player he was and could still potentially be. Even still, many still projected him to be a very good 3rd line guy, but perhaps not offensively gifted enough for the top 6.

Numbers are numbers, I'm judging this by what I personally watched out of Ladd. Granted since then, he has taken some big steps forward. However, even still, he must prove last seasons numbers are the rule and not the exception.
See, this is what I have a problem with. You are basing him strictly off his 11 games in Winnipeg and not looking at what he has done in the past. Just because you haven't seen him play at that level, doesn't mean he won't or can't(I apologize how this comes off rude).

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11-02-2011, 03:08 PM
  #277
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
See, this is what I have a problem with. You are basing him strictly off his 11 games in Winnipeg and not looking at what he has done in the past. Just because you haven't seen him play at that level, doesn't mean he won't or can't(I apologize how this comes off rude).
He's talking about Ladd's time with the Canes.

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Old
11-02-2011, 03:51 PM
  #278
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Just looking at goals and assists is a pretty easy way to make a bad judgement, there is so much more going on that can be recorded and analysed to give you a much better picture. It would be great if one of the guys from behind the net could come over here and start an advanced stats thread to grow the awareness of advanced stats in hockey.

I wont go really in depth here but I'll try and do a quick overview of Ladd. (note all data is for 5on5)

07-08 08-09 09-10
63 GP 14G 16 A 82 GP 15G 34 A 82 GP 17 G 21A
TOI/60 10.91 TOI/60 12.88 TOI/60 12.80
GFON/60 3.14 GFON/60 3.58 GFON/60 3.09
GAON/60 2.27 GAON/60 2.27 GAON/60 2.91
SH% 9.84 SH% 10.03 SH% 8.94
SV% 921 SV% 914 SV% 884
PDO 1019 PDO 1014 PDO 973

10-11 11-12
81 GP 29G 30A 11GP 3G 1A
TOI/60 14.40 TOI/60 13.25
GFON/60 2.73 GFON/60 2.06
GAON/60 3.09 GAON/60 2.47
SH% 7.86 SH% 5.95
SV% 902 SV% 903
PDO 981 PDO 963

Nothing here really jumps out shooting % is relatively consistent and is at an acceptable value, if anything during his 10-11 year the shot% was a little lower that would be expected. A quick check of his team mate quality and line mate quality shows.
07-08 lll08-09 lll09-10 lll10-11
QCOMP +.018 lll+.108 lll-.019 lll+.039
QTEAM -.017 lll+.145 lll-.062 lll+.099

Nothing too crazy here ether we can see that moving from the 3rd line in CHI to the 1st line in ATL his QTEAM went up as did the quality of his opponents. However there is nothing here to show an abnormality such as drawing the worst that the opposing team has to offer or playing with supper starts.

We can now compare his raw stats (not his counting stats) to other players around the league, to see how he stacks up. I took the average numbers from the first second and third line players from seeds 1/3/5/7 in the east and teams 2/4/6/8 in the west according to last years play-offs. While not 100% accurate due to teams like Boston using their second and 3rd lines almost exactly the same I feel that it does give an accurate representation of where Ladd would fall on a play-off team. Using this he compares to a 3rd liner on a play-off team.

However there has to be something that accounts for the sharp increase in goals. For the answer to this we need to look at his PP stats (5on4)

08-09 09-10 10-11
TOI/60 .41 0.63 2.89
GFON/60 1.8 4.66 6.42
GAON/60 0.0 0.0 2.31
PDO 1077 1089 923

Here we can see where Ladds increase is coming from, he went from around 30 seconds of PP time to close to 3 minutes, he also improved his ability to score on the PP. (note the poor differential is not really his fault the SV% for his PP time was a mere 800) adjusting the SV% closer to a league average 995 on the powerplay would give Ladd a goal differential on the PP close to 5.5 which is comparable to some of the top PP players on play off teams.

So we can take from this that while Ladd may be best suited to a 3rd line roll in 5on5 he is still vary valuable on special teams and should be utilized as such.

With a Cap hit of 4.4 (some extra for being Capitan and a leader) he should be pretty close to worth his salary as long as he continues to see regular PP time on the 1st or 2nd unit.

(note I come from a Baseball back ground so if I am miss using any of these stats please let me know.)


Last edited by Wpgpage: 11-02-2011 at 03:59 PM. Reason: formatting
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Old
11-02-2011, 04:16 PM
  #279
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Hmm.. I hear Omark is available for cheap...

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11-02-2011, 04:21 PM
  #280
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Thanks Wpgpage - this kind of stuff is great. I think the small sample size for this season skews some stats (e.g. 5.95 SH% seems unlikely to continue for the whole season...I hope!).

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11-02-2011, 04:41 PM
  #281
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Originally Posted by Gm0ney View Post
Thanks Wpgpage - this kind of stuff is great. I think the small sample size for this season skews some stats (e.g. 5.95 SH% seems unlikely to continue for the whole season...I hope!).
I agree its mostly due to the fact that Little hasnčt been able to do anything yet. Over the course of the next 20 games it should increase back to around 8-9%

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11-02-2011, 04:43 PM
  #282
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Originally Posted by Duke49 View Post
See, this is what I have a problem with. You are basing him strictly off his 11 games in Winnipeg and not looking at what he has done in the past. Just because you haven't seen him play at that level, doesn't mean he won't or can't(I apologize how this comes off rude).
Slow down there, Duke. Guerzy was a Canes fan and watched Ladd there.

My opinion of Ladd isn't really based on in depth watching of him, but more his roles on the Hawks and Canes.

If he continues to score 20 goals and 50 points, I will change my opinion. As of right now, he is on pace to score over 20 goals but only just over 30 points. That's not enough for a top 6 player. Especially with the gravy minutes and PP time he's getting.

Again, I hope he can start getting more points, but his linemates (Little especially) have to help with that.

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11-02-2011, 05:03 PM
  #283
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Ladd has had a slow start.. but he's still a 2nd liner at worst. He looked great last game in all facets IMO.

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11-02-2011, 05:05 PM
  #284
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I think I'm too tired to be on this board right now. I should go take a nap.

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11-02-2011, 11:10 PM
  #285
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My problem is, I don't see Ladd as a top 6 winger. Maybe he is going to prove me wrong (I hope he does). I see him as an EXCELLENT 3rd line guy. Gritty, shut down guy who can pot you 20-50 and who you want on the ice in the last minute.

I also don't see Fehr as a top 6 guy. I can imagine him being a bandaid for us going forward so I wouldn't rely on him anyway.

Wheeler? I have zero faith in this guy. He has had one real good spurt and that's it. He is lazy and just seems like someone that the Jets inherited and won't be in the long term plans. Again, I hope I am wrong about him.

Omark could lay a giant egg here. He could also realize his potential and become a nice top 6 winger here. That's what I am saying.

Disagree on Ladd and Fehr, while both are probably not top line players I think both are solid second line guys, Ladd has only shown flashes here, but he does come to play every night. Fehr played on some pretty good Capitals teams, with more ice time here you never know, hopefully he can come back from the shoulder injury but you never know.

Wheeler looks like he will be out of the NHL within a couple of years, the guy is big, skates well but is really soft and completely clueless on the ice, does not seem to have any confidence.

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11-03-2011, 11:43 AM
  #286
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Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Disagree on Ladd and Fehr, while both are probably not top line players I think both are solid second line guys, Ladd has only shown flashes here, but he does come to play every night. Fehr played on some pretty good Capitals teams, with more ice time here you never know, hopefully he can come back from the shoulder injury but you never know.

Wheeler looks like he will be out of the NHL within a couple of years, the guy is big, skates well but is really soft and completely clueless on the ice, does not seem to have any confidence.
That crazy he's a solid 3rd line player at 5on5 and crappy on the PP at least he has been over the last 2 years. He's almost the exact same player as Eric Fehr in 5on5 situations the only difference is Fehr is a solid PP player. So what makes Wheeler a candidate to be out of the NHL in a few years and Fehr a second line player? On that note a PP line of
Ladd///(Little/Wellwood)//Fehr
should theoretically be a very solid unit.

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11-04-2011, 01:18 AM
  #287
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Ladd was a top 50 forward in scoring last year.....not sure how anyone could think he is not at least second line...

59 points is top 3 in scoring for 2/3 of the teams in the league....and he brings a lot more than scoring.

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11-04-2011, 09:10 AM
  #288
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Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little for Kyle Turris and a draft pick

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11-04-2011, 09:34 AM
  #289
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That is overpayment for Turris besides about 0% chance the Coyotes would trade for Wheeler considering he spurned the organizaton once already.

I could actually see something involving Little and Turris + Stone.

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11-04-2011, 10:20 AM
  #290
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This team is 5-4-1 over the past ten games. Sure there are some injuries on D but nothing that requires a shakeup. I'm also aware that a few forwards are under-performing, yet the team is winning of late in spite of that. This is exactly the type of team that needs a patient GM right now, IMO.

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11-04-2011, 11:44 AM
  #291
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The Jets started the season with a bad record but seem to be climbing out. Hopefully we can put some more wins together this weekend and next week. If we ended this road trip with an above .500 standing overall, I think the road trip was better than one could have imagined. If we go 5-2, awesome.

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11-04-2011, 12:29 PM
  #292
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Originally Posted by ducky View Post
That is overpayment for Turris besides about 0% chance the Coyotes would trade for Wheeler considering he spurned the organizaton once already.

I could actually see something involving Little and Turris + Stone.
Buff and Little for Turris and Yandle.

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11-04-2011, 12:52 PM
  #293
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Buff and Little for Turris and Yandle.
Haha I would LOVE that trade. Too bad it's total fantasy (hence I'm sure the winky face)

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11-04-2011, 01:05 PM
  #294
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Pure fantasy.

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11-04-2011, 01:11 PM
  #295
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One team to keep an eye on is Columbus. If they continue to lose, they could blow the team up and ship out some guys.

One player I'd want is Antoine Vermette. He's an excellent PKer, can provide secondary scoring (two seasons ago he put up 27 goals) and can play at center or on the wing.

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11-04-2011, 01:42 PM
  #296
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McArdle on waivers today...hopefully that means Hainsey is coming off IR in time for this weekend's games...

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11-04-2011, 10:59 PM
  #297
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Hard to believe McArdle was once a 1st round pick!

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11-04-2011, 11:48 PM
  #298
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sipowicz View Post
Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little for Kyle Turris and a draft pick
Just because you evaluate the worth of a player as being low, doesn't mean that other teams won't. Bryan Little alone is probably overpayment for Turris.

Quote:
Originally Posted by WJG View Post
One team to keep an eye on is Columbus. If they continue to lose, they could blow the team up and ship out some guys.

One player I'd want is Antoine Vermette. He's an excellent PKer, can provide secondary scoring (two seasons ago he put up 27 goals) and can play at center or on the wing.
If Columbus blows up their team, which I doubt, they'd want significant picks and prospects. Winnipeg's cabinet is way too empty for us to be spending those kind of assets for Vermette. If anything we need to tone down on trading away picks and prospects if possible.

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11-05-2011, 09:49 PM
  #299
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Little for R.J. Umberger straight up or package Wheeler with Little for a player and draft pick.

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11-06-2011, 09:05 AM
  #300
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Winnipeg Jets need to do something like this,

http://stars.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=599061

I have seen the Canucks do it, the Stars do it, and I imagine some other teams as well. It is so sweet to get a little behind the scenes look.

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