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Winnipeg Jets - Free Agents, Trades, Rumors, Speculation-It all goes here; Part IV

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Old
12-30-2011, 01:58 PM
  #926
atl thrasher344
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Schneider makes like nine hundred thousand a year. But regardless, there would be no way I'd trade away Evander Kane. No way. The kid is going to be a star. Does he deserve more money?

Yes.

Does that mean it should be a jump into higher levels of pay? No.

I personally think that most people are getting a little antsy with how much these two players are going to be asking for. If their level of play continues into the next few seasons, I'd have no problems paying four million each.

But not yet. Not based on one good season.
Drew Doughty sure is making a whole lot of money based on only really one great season.

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12-30-2011, 01:58 PM
  #927
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Both of these players came from a team that was flat...and magically...poof were in a playoff hunt. Might possibly be because the team is now in a market where people actually care about hockey, before they were barely selling tickets and now the team skates out to a sold out crowd at a home game. It's huge..
It really is shocking to see how little people actually know about the team prior to this year.



Last edited by Lynk: 12-30-2011 at 02:31 PM.
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12-30-2011, 02:33 PM
  #928
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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
Schneider makes like nine hundred thousand a year.
Regardless of what Schneider makes now, he is going to get a significant raise. Here are the scenarios for him:

1) Vancouver makes him qualifying offer with money that Schneider can't deny (like 2.5 - 3 mill) and he signs. Vancouver can't afford to spend 2.5 on a backup goalie, so this won't happen, but is a possibility.
2) Schneider rejects his qualifying offer, a team that is desperate for a tender for the future (NJ) signs him to an offer sheet for an amount that the Canucks will not be able to offer (probably 2.75 to 3.13 with a second rounder for compensation)
3) Vancouver takes Schneider to Arbitration. If he awarded less than 2, the Canucks sign him, if not, they let him walk where somebody offers him roughly 3 - 3.5 to be a starter. My bet is in arbitration, he gets 1.5; he hasn't played enough to demand much more than that.

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Originally Posted by sully1410 View Post
But regardless, there would be no way I'd trade away Evander Kane. No way. The kid is going to be a star. Does he deserve more money?

Yes.

Does that mean it should be a jump into higher levels of pay? No.

I personally think that most people are getting a little antsy with how much these two players are going to be asking for. If their level of play continues into the next few seasons, I'd have no problems paying four million each.

But not yet. Not based on one good season.
Unfortunately, that's not how economics in hockey works. When a guy goes to sign a new contract, the main focus is what they have done lately. If Kane scores 40 this year, he is going to get paid like a 40 goal scorer. If Pavs wins 35 games with a .920 save % and a 2.2 GGA he is going to get paid like other goalies with similar numbers.

With Kane, we have the luxury of being in control of him. We can pay him like a 40 goal scorer this year and have one more RFA deal with him. If he shows that same prowess, we lock him down for five years.

With Pavs, we are going to have to look at other comparables; guys like Halak and Price are the only guys who come to mind. IMO, we should lock Pavs down now for five at 3.25 before we go on a playoff rush. The market value for Pavs is 3 to 4 anyway you slice it.

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12-30-2011, 02:38 PM
  #929
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Originally Posted by Lynk View Post
It really is shocking to see how little people actually know about the team prior to this year.

I agree, this team is very much in the same place right now as they were at this time last year. Granted, there are much different circumstances surrounding the team this year.

The remainder of the season is going to tell the tail.

Out of curiosity, anybody have a clue what our man games lost was at this point last year?

I don't think we have had our complete roster for more than two games this year.


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12-30-2011, 02:45 PM
  #930
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It really is shocking to see how little people actually know about the team prior to this year.

I totally agree with you there, Lynk. The good news for us this year is how we got here.

Teams that start red hot and are unexpectedly at the top eventually come down to earth. This team got here with lots of learning and hard work, and improvement day in and out.

As for the saying Kane is unproven, well the kid has been in the league for 3 years and is heading towards a 40 goal season. What do you want? You don't score forty in this league anymore unless you are legit.

The days of Rob Brown feasting off of Mario Lemieux are gone.

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12-30-2011, 03:02 PM
  #931
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I totally agree with you there, Lynk. The good news for us this year is how we got here.

Teams that start red hot and are unexpectedly at the top eventually come down to earth. This team got here with lots of learning and hard work, and improvement day in and out.

As for the saying Kane is unproven, well the kid has been in the league for 3 years and is heading towards a 40 goal season. What do you want? You don't score forty in this league anymore unless you are legit.

The days of Rob Brown feasting off of Mario Lemieux are gone.
That year was crazy for unknown players on the Pens, Dan Quin threw down 94 points on top of Browns 114.

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12-30-2011, 03:05 PM
  #932
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Duke, you make great points in this thread, in my opinion. I agree with everything. Very, very well said.

I also think a lot of our growth will come from within, and over the next few years we may not be a "mid-cap" team only because we will have to pay our own younger guys who are likely too good to let go, however to keep them they will need to be compensated fairly.

One thing that has really been on my mind lately is this teams potential. Basically, this identical team will be back next season with the exception of likely Oduya (I think that's fair to say).

We've seen what this team did in Atlanta last season, and even though they stumbled, I think it's fair to say they learned A LOT based on the experience.

Now, this year, they must keep it all together all while being in a new environment with new coaches and a new system. So far, they've done exceptionally well, in my opinion.

I believe with this team and the likes of Little, Kane, Ladd, Burmistrov, Wheeler, Antropov, Enstrom, Byfuglien, Bogosian, Hainsey, Stuart, Pavelec, etc.. and possibly a young guy such as Scheifele next season, we should only get better and more consistent. I also think all of Slater, Glass, Wellwood and Mason will be back next season as they are all a great fit here. These players just seem to "get it" so far this season and I feel things will only get better.

I really like this team. I love the character, leadership, mix of youth and a little veteran leadership sprinkled in there. I love it all and am a firm believer that our main growth will come from within. For example, if Burmistrov can do next year (in his 3rd NHL season) what Kane is doing this year (in his 3rd NHL season), and I think Burmistrov can indeed break out in good fashion, that alone would be huge right there. I believe guys like Little and Wheeler will become the players we know they can be (and have shown to date they can be) but on a consistent basis, from the start of the season to the end. Ladd is our leader and while he isn't the flashiest, he really brings something no other forward on our roster brings, and that is leadership + goal scoring + physicality + experience, etc.. he may get 25 goals or so, and 40-50 points, rarely ever hit the highlight reels, but he is important here. Slater is certainly the unsung hero of our forwards, as I believe Stuart is on our defense.

This team is pretty good today, I believe, and should only get better as the years go on. If we can keep this core intact, I think we'll be rewarded. We will certainly add pieces along the way, as all teams do, but I am a firm believer our success will come from the growth and maturation we see from within.

If this team makes the playoffs this season, even if they squeak in by a single point in the 8th and final spot in the Eastern Conference, the experience alone will make all worth it, 100%. Even if we were get swept, the experience would make it all worth it in my opinion. This team is learning as we go here, and there is no better way to learn than to simply do it and gain that valuable experience. The phrase "well if we are just going to make the playoffs in the 8th spot and get beat out in the 1st round" does not apply to this team for me. You won't EVER sell me on that, because this team needs to achieve certain things in order to learn and become better.
As much as you would think that most of these guys will be back, you have to keep an open mind as the team could change quite a bit. The key is making sure you can keep the right guys at the right price and knowing when you just have to walk away.

I know TNSE has said they will be a mid-cap team, well, if they want to be a Cup Contender, they'll keep the core in tact as much as possible while also bringing in key role players on cheap contracts or some rookies like Schiefele or Cormier next year. Both I think have a good shot at making the team next year. I'm confident Cormier can come in next year and be a solid 4th line center.

The key in all this, is good drafting, developing, scouting, and coaching. If they follow the way Nashville has drafted, developed, scouted, and coached, combined with an owner that has cash, the potential for this franchise is limitless.

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Originally Posted by DinoNeils View Post
I would barely trade Kane for those other four. Eight million for the pair is about right. Look at what Price and Halak got, 2.5 and 3.75, and the proved about as much, if not more, than Pavs has when they last signed. My bet is Pavs gets in the 2.5 and 3.75 for a three year term. Only way he gets four is if we make a huge playoff push or he gets five or more years on the term.

Kane is getting four; I hate that he is, but it is the going rate for guys who are busting out. If the we sign him with one more RFA deal after this contract, I bet we can get him for 3.25 - 3.5. Anything that will take him to UFA will be around 4 per. Look at the contracts for A Kostytsin, Lucic, Ryan and Zajac. Those were the best comparables I could find.
I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure Price signed his current contract before the start of last season. He had yet to put up great numbers, he still showed potential and that's why it wasn't any higher. He'll get his pay day this offseason.

Either way, I don't see Pavs getting more then $3.75. Somewhere around $3 maybe slightly less. He's got two more years of RFA as well I believe. You have to think they'll want to lock him up for awhile, and if they do, that'll raise his price a little bit. Something a little over $3 for 4-7 years maybe.

Kane will get $4 easy if he goes for a longer contract. I'm kinda hoping they sign him somewhere in the range of $4-4.75 for 5-8 years. But lengthy contracts are worrisome. The problem is Kane is having a breakout year in his 3rd year. We have 4 more years of RFA status with him. He could take a 2 year deal at a cheaper price and then get his payday the next contract and we can really eat into UFA years.

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Originally Posted by awopbopaloobop View Post
I agree that next year the team will look quite similar as we should be able to shuffle the salary deck a little bit and still cover large raises for Pavs and Kane (especially if we get rid of Oduya and some of the 3rd/4th line guys are willing to trade a bit of salary room for a two or three year contract).

I wouldn't, however, underestimate True North's committment to their business plan, which includes being a mid-cap team. They are not running a charity for the city, they're in it to make money. They've stated several times that a key component to this plan is good personnel management in order to create a winning team but on a budget. If Kane, Burmi, Bogo, Enstrom, Little, Wheeler, Hainsey and Pavs all demand big money contracts over the next couple of years, then some of them will have to go in order to stick to the plan.

True North are not your wife with the MBNA Mastercard. They are prudent businesspeople who got into the position they are now in by careful planning and solid financial management. While a top-of-the-cap team might be exciting, it's not neccessarily sustainable given this smaller market.
In regards to the first bolded. - What 3rd/4th line guys would we get rid of to shed salary? They would just be replaced by guys making the same amount.

Second bolded - With the exception of Wheeler and Hainsey, you build around that core, not get rid of it. You get rid of lesser players to keep those guys. You have a 24 year old #1 goalie, 2 #1 defensemen(Bogo soon to be), a 20 year old winger on pace to score 40 goals, 2 extremely well 2-way centerman that could conceivably produce 120-150 points together within 3 years.

Third bolded - This seems to almost go against everything that people will argue for Winnipeg when they were getting a team. You have a filthy rich owner, season ticket sales sold for 5 years at above average prices, and merchandise that is likely one of the highest in the league. That doesn't exactly say "smaller market".

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Old
12-30-2011, 03:21 PM
  #933
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I'm not 100% on this, but I'm pretty sure Price signed his current contract before the start of last season. He had yet to put up great numbers, he still showed potential and that's why it wasn't any higher. He'll get his pay day this offseason.

Either way, I don't see Pavs getting more then $3.75. Somewhere around $3 maybe slightly less. He's got two more years of RFA as well I believe. You have to think they'll want to lock him up for awhile, and if they do, that'll raise his price a little bit. Something a little over $3 for 4-7 years maybe.

Kane will get $4 easy if he goes for a longer contract. I'm kinda hoping they sign him somewhere in the range of $4-4.75 for 5-8 years. But lengthy contracts are worrisome. The problem is Kane is having a breakout year in his 3rd year. We have 4 more years of RFA status with him. He could take a 2 year deal at a cheaper price and then get his payday the next contract and we can really eat into UFA years.
Price signed the year after they made the run with Halak in goal; both were RFA's. Price had solid numbers in the regular season; actually, the numbers are very similar to what Pavs has done thus far.

I think we can agree, on both players. Pavs will get between 3 and 3.5 for more than four years; I'm hoping 5, anything more than that scares me. Plus, if we haven't developed another goalie to push Pavs or to be our next starter, I would be concerned. Kane will get around 4 hopefully for two; gotta get that last RFA deal in there.

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12-30-2011, 05:03 PM
  #934
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I'm not sure how the conversation got steered to Kane and Pavelec's future contracts but I'll play.

I assume that Kane will not keep up his pace for 40 goals but will probably finish closer to 35. Even then he'll command a salary above what many here are stating. I'd expect him to get 4-5M/year for 2-3 years. One good year doesn't make him established but the free-agent market places a high premium on goal scorers. Kane's stats this year should be similar to Kessel's final year in Boston, which was also his 3rd year in the league and which earned him a 5.4M/year contract. The fact that Kane's a RFA is the only thing keeping that contract value from scaring most Jets fans. I'd expect him to take a shorter term with the hopes of earning an even bigger contract shortly and that the Jets have no reason to fear a short-term deal since he'd still be a RFA after.

Although Pavelec has been good I don't think the market values young goalies as highly. Where it gets trickier with Pavelec is that he's only got 2 more RFA years after this season. I'd expect him to get 3M/year for 5 years.

I think the Jets will avoid the ridiculously long-term contract especially since the league has stamped out the front-loaded contracts that extend beyond any reasonably expected career. They've stated they want to be a blue collar team - to me this means that players earn ice time with their recent play, not their stats in previous years. Similarly I think contracts will be kept short and that no-trade clauses won't be handed out like candy. If they're going to be competitive for any length of time as a mid-cap team, I think this is essential.

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12-30-2011, 07:12 PM
  #935
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I don't like long term contracts at all but in a league that doesn't allow for player or team option years (which is dumb every other major league has it) the Jets are going to have to dole out long term deals to their young players. Unfortunately due to the market we are going to have trouble resigning some of our players when they hit UFA status. Its the nature of being a small Canadian market, some players will love playing here but some will want to leave for the bigger brighter warmer city's of the NHL

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12-30-2011, 08:30 PM
  #936
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Ok well I guess I see your point, but if Pavs and Kane both stay the stars that we all hope for them to be, and their already getting that kind of money, I don't see how the jets are going to stay a mid cap team. If the almighty dollar remains more important then the playoff success of the team...we're going to see alot of new faces every year.

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12-30-2011, 09:17 PM
  #937
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Ok well I guess I see your point, but if Pavs and Kane both stay the stars that we all hope for them to be, and their already getting that kind of money, I don't see how the jets are going to stay a mid cap team. If the almighty dollar remains more important then the playoff success of the team...we're going to see alot of new faces every year.
Well what exactly are you defining as a mid-cap team? Is that mid-pack in the league in salary? If so, the Devils are 15th in the league in salary, and they're only $3 million under the cap.

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12-31-2011, 10:53 AM
  #938
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It looks as if Peter Mannino was cut by the St. John's IceCaps! It appears as if he has no future with this organization. Not really a big loss in the grand scheme, IMO.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/C...ere-were-two/1

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12-31-2011, 11:13 AM
  #939
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It looks as if Peter Mannino was cut by the St. John's IceCaps! It appears as if he has no future with this organization. Not really a big loss in the grand scheme, IMO.

http://www.thetelegram.com/Opinion/C...ere-were-two/1
I knew they'd pare down eventually, I figured it would either be Aebischer getting released or Pasquale being sent down to Colorado. This is a bit surprising, but I agree, basically a non-factor in the grand scheme. Pasquale looks like he's developing alright, good enough to be an emergency 3rd string goalie.

Hope Mannino finds another AHL gig.

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12-31-2011, 11:51 AM
  #940
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Sucks for Mannino. The three-goalie system could have been avoided if we didn't sign Aebischer in the first place (never really understood that decision).

Oh well, at least Pasquale gets more starts. He's going to be a very good goaltender.

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12-31-2011, 12:09 PM
  #941
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Sucks for Mannino. The three-goalie system could have been avoided if we didn't sign Aebischer in the first place (never really understood that decision).

Oh well, at least Pasquale gets more starts. He's going to be a very good goaltender.
I think with the poor play of mason last year they wanted a back up plan for the back up

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12-31-2011, 03:09 PM
  #942
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The three-goalie system could have been avoided if we didn't sign Aebischer in the first place (never really understood that decision).
Hasn't Aebischer been doing well lately? Sounds like it may have been a good decision.

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12-31-2011, 03:43 PM
  #943
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Sucks for Mannino. The three-goalie system could have been avoided if we didn't sign Aebischer in the first place (never really understood that decision).

Oh well, at least Pasquale gets more starts. He's going to be a very good goaltender.
I think the decision was Aebischer having experience who has been there before (Stanley Cup), to help mentor the young ones. While if Mason didn't pan out the way he did they would be getting a cheap backup that was pretty on par with Mason last few seasons. Mannino will be going on 28 in the new year and he hasn't broken out yet. I'm sure some AHL group will pick him up he has shown flashes of being good but whether it's consistant or not is the question.

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01-01-2012, 02:20 AM
  #944
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Well what exactly are you defining as a mid-cap team? Is that mid-pack in the league in salary? If so, the Devils are 15th in the league in salary, and they're only $3 million under the cap.
I'd heard somewhere that they didn't want to go over bored on spending for players. They want to keep a good amount of room in the cap. Which is fine.

But eventually the team needs to be a serious cup contender, and to do that you kind of need to spend the dough.

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01-02-2012, 10:58 AM
  #945
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Can't believe that anyone could possibly undervalue Kane! The kid is a stud. In this thread I've seen him in ridiculous trade proposals (Kane, Bogo and a first for Bobby Ryan and his 13 goals??), and someone saying he's not worth more than guys like Fehr, Wheeler and Little...wow.

32 GMs in the NHL would line up to pay Kane 4Mil a season - not based on potential, based on what he brings right now. You guys are lucky to have him.

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01-02-2012, 11:32 AM
  #946
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Can't believe that anyone could possibly undervalue Kane! The kid is a stud. In this thread I've seen him in ridiculous trade proposals (Kane, Bogo and a first for Bobby Ryan and his 13 goals??), and someone saying he's not worth more than guys like Fehr, Wheeler and Little...wow.
Who said that in this thread? I've seen terrible proposals from fans of other teams but I haven't seen any Jets fans suggest Kane + Bogo + 1st for Ryan.

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01-02-2012, 12:11 PM
  #947
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Who said that in this thread? I've seen terrible proposals from fans of other teams but I haven't seen any Jets fans suggest Kane + Bogo + 1st for Ryan.
No Jet fan with two brain cells would suggest that.

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01-02-2012, 07:37 PM
  #948
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Can't believe that anyone could possibly undervalue Kane! The kid is a stud. In this thread I've seen him in ridiculous trade proposals (Kane, Bogo and a first for Bobby Ryan and his 13 goals??), and someone saying he's not worth more than guys like Fehr, Wheeler and Little...wow.

32 GMs in the NHL would line up to pay Kane 4Mil a season - not based on potential, based on what he brings right now. You guys are lucky to have him.
One of these guys are not like the others...

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01-02-2012, 07:44 PM
  #949
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Can't believe that anyone could possibly undervalue Kane! The kid is a stud. In this thread I've seen him in ridiculous trade proposals (Kane, Bogo and a first for Bobby Ryan and his 13 goals??), and someone saying he's not worth more than guys like Fehr, Wheeler and Little...wow.

32 GMs in the NHL would line up to pay Kane 4Mil a season - not based on potential, based on what he brings right now. You guys are lucky to have him.
Color me confused

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01-02-2012, 11:48 PM
  #950
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Color me confused
He's counting the inevitable replacements in MTL and CBJ as well, just to be safe.

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