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Old
08-19-2004, 08:56 AM
  #1
hockeyaddict101
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No Nedved for Oilers?

According to Matheson the Oilers will not budge on their offer to Nedved of 3 million a year and J.P. Barry has decided to now shop Nedved to other teams.

The Oilers see Nedved as in the same league as Nylander who siged for 8.9 million over three years.

Maybe Nedved won't find a team willing to pay 3.5 million and will come back to the Oilers or that Nedved will come back because of the superior tax situation in Alberta.

Howson admits the Oilers are taking a gamble, but Lowe said they could still package some players to get a centre.

Edit - Browlee's take is a little more positive

Barry is trying to squeeze more money out of Lowe because he feels Nedved's value is more than Nylander or Conroy, Lowe disagrees.

Lowe would like a descending 3 year deal, something like according to Brownlee 3, 3.2, 2.8. and Lowe feels this is what the market is.

Barry will be shopping Nedved but Brownlee feels this is posturing because both Barry and Nedved know this is the right fit.

Lowe says they will continue to talk and Brownlee thinks they will eventually split the difference and Nedved will be an Oiler.

(We will have to see who's take is more accurate)

I am sure somone willl posts the links later, keep in mind that the Journal links that I read on this board seem to be missing a paragraph sometimes)


Last edited by hockeyaddict101: 08-19-2004 at 10:19 AM.
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Old
08-19-2004, 09:34 AM
  #2
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Wow. A hurdle.

But like I was saying beforehand. I don't believe it until the ink is drying on the contract. Nonetheless, I am incredibly proud of Lowe for not buckling simply because the thing we need more than anything in the whole world is a #1 Centre. If all GM's had as much resolve as him we wouldn't be worrying about a lockout this fall.

I think that Barry and Nedved are going to have a look around, see if anyone is crazy enough to sign him for $3.5 Million, and if not - go with the Oilers. It sounds like money is the only factor now and honestly - what's a few hundred thousand dollars a year when you are already a multi-millionaire like Nedved is?

Can't wait to see what unfolds.

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Old
08-19-2004, 10:16 AM
  #3
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I really like Brownlee's article

He really did a good job, when everyone reads the link when posted I am sure you will all agree.

It really comes down to posturing for both sides.

Really if there was a 3.5 million dollar offer out there, Nedved would already be somewhere else. I'm not buying Barry's I have only negotiated with the Oilers story.

I also think that Lowe has a little room to budge, especially since Barry in that article says that he would accept some of that coin in bonuses.

At the end of all this you get the impression that Lowe is right, and that his offer is what the market is for Nedved, and Barry is trying to squeeze a few more dollars. If another team is willing to offer that 3.5 million, Nedved will be gone but Lowe is gambling that this offer is not going to materialize and Brownlee seems to agree with him.

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08-19-2004, 10:20 AM
  #4
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That's pretty interesting.

This morning on the radio, they had Lowe call in as he waited for his flight to Ottawa and at the time I was a little perplexed about his answer when the Nedved situation came up. This could explain it.

Just to recap, on Monday or Tuesday, Lowe said that he was confident something would get worked out with Nedved. With that nugget of information in mind, I thought his tone was a bit different today.

When asked about Nedved, his response was - not a quote but something to the effect of - I am fully confident that we will have a first line center position addressed by the start of the season - not exactly a commitment to the Nedved situation specifically.

He was then asked about the report that a term had been agreed upon and therefore the speculation was fine tuning the money side.

Lowe, jokingly but also quite bluntly said, "Isn't it always about the money?"

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08-19-2004, 10:26 AM
  #5
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Makes you wonder if the "fully confident" Lowe has a trade already lined up with another team if the Nedved thing doesn't happen.

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08-19-2004, 10:30 AM
  #6
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Here's the link:

http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Edmont...19/590375.html

Personally, I think this is all posturing by the Nedved camp. What kind of agent would Barry be if he did'nt try to get a higher return for Nedved. Its all part of the negotiating process.

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08-19-2004, 10:34 AM
  #7
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Good work by the Oilers. No budging off 3 million, even though it's still a little high if you ask me, especially if it's a 3 year deal.

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08-19-2004, 10:36 AM
  #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oiltalk
Makes you wonder if the "fully confident" Lowe has a trade already lined up with another team if the Nedved thing doesn't happen.

Like I mentioned, it wasn't an exact quote so it may be incorrect to say "FULLY" confident but that was most certainly the impression I was left with.

He has said for a while now that he wanted to persue Nedved but should that not pan out he will address the situation somehow, including the possibility of a trade.

I gotta think that if Nedved doesn't sign, then that would be the next most logical move. Signing a UFA can be like throwing mud at a wall, it may stick - it may not, with Nedved they at the very least know how he fits in the room and have seen what he is capable of with THIS team - long term effectiveness still outstanding. They don't have the luxury of that inside look with some of teh other guys out there so, for me, I would like to see them give up a decent asset or two to get a good, young Center that can still grow a bit with this team.

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08-19-2004, 10:52 AM
  #9
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this looks like a pretty easy deal to close.

Nedved wants 10 mill over 3 years and will look at bonusses.

The oilers are willing to pay 9 mill over 3 years and will consider bonusses.

Split the difference at 9.5 mill which equals an average package of 3,167,000 a year Make 167,000 of that amount as realistic bonusses ( ie - playoffs first year, 2nd round of playoffs in 2nd year, 3rd round of playoffs in third year). The oilers get their 3 mil a year 1st line centre, Petr gets his 9.5 mill over 3 years if the oilers have success.

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08-19-2004, 10:58 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SedinFan
Good work by the Oilers. No budging off 3 million, even though it's still a little high if you ask me, especially if it's a 3 year deal.
Agreed. 3 Years at 2.8 Mill is what I would like to see. Not going to happen, so like I said in a thread yesterday, they will play arbitration rules and Nedved will end up getting 3.25 Mill per/yr.

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08-19-2004, 11:04 AM
  #11
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I said before that $10 million over 3 years seemed a bit high to me. And since I saw that Damphousse signed a one year deal with the Avs yesterday for 2 million, I'm REALLY starting to think that is a bit too high. I think Nedved brings more to the table and is a better fit for the Oil, but over $1 million more? I don't know...

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08-19-2004, 11:22 AM
  #12
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Bryn just said that they will probably replay the Lowe interview later this morning.

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08-19-2004, 11:27 AM
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That's not very nice putting a thread with a title like that I thought you actually KNEW something and weren't just speculating. Not nice at all.

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08-19-2004, 11:29 AM
  #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfpack
I said before that $10 million over 3 years seemed a bit high to me. And since I saw that Damphousse signed a one year deal with the Avs yesterday for 2 million, I'm REALLY starting to think that is a bit too high. I think Nedved brings more to the table and is a better fit for the Oil, but over $1 million more? I don't know...
I don't think Nedved is the second coming but I also wouldn't lump him in with Damphousse.

That was a signing that reeked of desperation and at 2 mil I would suggest they overpaid for a little insurance.

Nedveds not being looked at for insurance he is being looked at - whether it's fair or not - as a pretty major piece of the team.

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08-19-2004, 12:30 PM
  #15
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Just wondering about the mathematical equation here.

If the difference between Lowe and Nedved is the difference between $9 and $9.5 million, then whatever the Oilers would trade for their first line centre is worth less to them than $500K.(Or whatever the compromise is)

Simply put, a UFA signing for the extra "jake" instead of trading away assets is the better asset management, wouldn't you think?

Let's say...first line center...who might be out there....doesn't look like much...(Especially when you want one that makes less than $3.25 million)

Going to trade Smith for a first line center? What about Isbister and a 2nd rounder?

So the word is that Izzy and a 2nd isn't worth $250K?

The point of the matter is that by signing the UFA, you add an asset without losing it, and $250 in my opinion may not be worth losing the assets.

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Old
08-19-2004, 01:37 PM
  #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul
The point of the matter is that by signing the UFA, you add an asset without losing it, and $250 in my opinion may not be worth losing the assets.
BINGO!

I was wondering when someone would make that astute point.

The only thing that changes THIS way of looking at it is if the deal has no-trade clauses, in which case the asset both costs nothing and is worth nothing.


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Old
08-19-2004, 01:48 PM
  #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul
Just wondering about the mathematical equation here.

....

Let's say...first line center...who might be out there....doesn't look like much...(Especially when you want one that makes less than $3.25 million)

What about Isbister and a 2nd rounder?

So the word is that Izzy and a 2nd isn't worth $250K?
How does this factor in?

Let's say that the incoming center is 25 and making 2 mil a year, now if Isbister is making 1.5 mil and a ufa was to make 3 mil then;

you have 6 years of player rights VS 3 years with a UFA;

and

you have 2.5 mil left over to pursue additional players.

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:02 PM
  #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by George Bachul
Just wondering about the mathematical equation here.

If the difference between Lowe and Nedved is the difference between $9 and $9.5 million, then whatever the Oilers would trade for their first line centre is worth less to them than $500K.(Or whatever the compromise is)

Simply put, a UFA signing for the extra "jake" instead of trading away assets is the better asset management, wouldn't you think?

Let's say...first line center...who might be out there....doesn't look like much...(Especially when you want one that makes less than $3.25 million)

Going to trade Smith for a first line center? What about Isbister and a 2nd rounder?

So the word is that Izzy and a 2nd isn't worth $250K?

The point of the matter is that by signing the UFA, you add an asset without losing it, and $250 in my opinion may not be worth losing the assets.
I personally do not think that Nedved will have a positive enough effect on this team's ability to outscore to justify the money he is asking. In all likelihood he help the powerplay and will hinder the team at 5on5 (partly through GAA but mostly be because Mactavish will probably have him eat up much of the valuable soft minutes ... i.e the icetime against the other team's weaker players).

IMO the most optimistic a guy can sensibly be is maybe +6 in to the team goal differential because of Nedved (He actually had no effect on goal differential in his 16 games here ... though York was out or playing injured for most of it). +6 in goal differential works out to about 2 points in the standings ... depending on the bounces. And that isn't a very wise expenditure of $3M IMHO. Over $300k per extra team "+" by my most optimistic estimation ... which is not a very good rate of return if the Oilers hope to ever become a 100 point (+40) type of team with their payroll budget.

Granted ... its tough to guess how much impact a player will have. But leopards don't change their spots ... and IMO the best indicator of furutre performance is past performance.

As for the dollar values of individual draft selecting spots (e.g. a 50th overall pick) ... I really don't know, though one would hope that the Oilers hockey ops guys have this pegged pretty accurately. And with the signing bonuses, risk of failure, development costs, rate of RFA salary inflation, etc ... I suspect that it isn't nearly as high as we intuitively feel it is here.

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08-19-2004, 03:12 PM
  #19
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The whole thing just bugs me, sign Nedved and get it over with. K-Lowe im sure you can bounty up even another 500 000 if need be. If It was last year I say no but with the new CBA and a different economic system the oilers regardless are going to benefit someway. I'm sure we aren't going to break the bank if we sign Nedved now. To me there isn't another center out there. Lindros or Allision? I don't think so big risks I think. Then K-Lowe says well we can package up some players to get a center if need be. Well your probably going to have to give up some good players to get that center so we are propaply dealing from a weakness. With Nedved we don't have to give up any of our players in the likely hood. K-Lowe just sign him, your taking a gamble by hoping no teams sign him.

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08-19-2004, 03:13 PM
  #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I personally do not think that Nedved will have a positive enough effect on this team's ability to outscore to justify the money he is asking. In all likelihood he help the powerplay and will hinder the team at 5on5 (partly through GAA but mostly be because Mactavish will probably have him eat up much of the valuable soft minutes ... i.e the icetime against the other team's weaker players).

IMO the most optimistic a guy can sensibly be is maybe +6 in to the team goal differential because of Nedved (He actually had no effect on goal differential in his 16 games here ... though York was out or playing injured for most of it). +6 in goal differential works out to about 2 points in the standings ... depending on the bounces. And that isn't a very wise expenditure of $3M IMHO. Over $300k per extra team "+" by my most optimistic estimation ... which is not a very good rate of return if the Oilers hope to ever become a 100 point (+40) type of team with their payroll budget.

Granted ... its tough to guess how much impact a player will have. But leopards don't change their spots ... and IMO the best indicator of furutre performance is past performance.

As for the dollar values of individual draft selecting spots (e.g. a 50th overall pick) ... I really don't know, though one would hope that the Oilers hockey ops guys have this pegged pretty accurately. And with the signing bonuses, risk of failure, development costs, rate of RFA salary inflation, etc ... I suspect that it isn't nearly as high as we intuitively feel it is here.

But, numbers aside damn is he fun to watch.

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:22 PM
  #21
hockeyaddict101
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Loki
That's not very nice putting a thread with a title like that I thought you actually KNEW something and weren't just speculating. Not nice at all.
I meant to put a question mark, so went back in to try to add it but I guess you can't edit titles. Sorry.

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08-19-2004, 03:28 PM
  #22
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My money is on NJ or Boston

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:29 PM
  #23
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Originally Posted by Loki
But, numbers aside damn is he fun to watch.
:lol True enough.

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:49 PM
  #24
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Lowe should just give him 500000 dollars and get the deal done.

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08-19-2004, 03:54 PM
  #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smyth94_nedved93
Lowe should just give him 500000 dollars and get the deal done.
I'm sure Nedved's agent feels exactly the same way :lol

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