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Old
08-19-2004, 03:01 PM
  #26
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Well this is just great.

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08-19-2004, 03:08 PM
  #27
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are him and his wife still fighting about edmonton?

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08-19-2004, 03:21 PM
  #28
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
I was wondering when someone would make that astute point.
But that's not the complete story unless you don't have a salary ceiling.

A team like the Oilers needs to maximize their value for every last nickel spent on payroll. igor's post alludes to this fact. UFAs tend to be (are always?) overpriced relative to their RFA counterparts.

Imagine you have a 1800 calorie diet that you can't go over. You fill up on low-nutrition junk foods like 2 Cokes and a bag of Cheetos then you've got work cut out for you getting your RDAs of the good stuff. Likewise if you have a fixed 32M payroll then adding UFAs is like treating yourself to some snack foods. The issue then is whether Nedved is more like Twinkies or like a Soy and Broccoli salad. According to igor's analysis (which I trust more than any other I've seen) Nedved's probably something like a sweetend yoghurt or maybe an apple: it has some stuff that would be good for you but is high enough in sugar that you may have to cut back on the bran flakes in the morning.

Instead of a UFA, consider the alternative. IF Lowe were able to trade a winger or D for a C without taking on salary and while getting an equivalent value back, then its a lateral move but the team is no worse off overall. However what if Lowe were able to take on a bit of salary? Say 2.5M? Then the salary taken on should be counted against the player coming back, meaning they'd have to give up less in exchange for taking on salary. The point to make, though, is those $2.5M in RFA dollars may reasonably go farther than 3.0M in UFA dollars.

Even if all the above is true, which is not certain by any stretch, then the problem still remains that I can't imagine any trade for a good RFA centre. Who would give one up? Thus its UFA or low-probability rejects like Dopita and Oates in my estimation. I think my point remains though: going the UFA route for the Oilers seems to me to be an admission of defeat in terms of trading and NOT something to be celebrated.

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:21 PM
  #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
I personally do not think that Nedved will have a positive enough effect on this team's ability to outscore to justify the money he is asking. In all likelihood he help the powerplay and will hinder the team at 5on5 (partly through GAA but mostly be because Mactavish will probably have him eat up much of the valuable soft minutes ... i.e the icetime against the other team's weaker players).

IMO the most optimistic a guy can sensibly be is maybe +6 in to the team goal differential because of Nedved (He actually had no effect on goal differential in his 16 games here ... though York was out or playing injured for most of it). +6 in goal differential works out to about 2 points in the standings ... depending on the bounces. And that isn't a very wise expenditure of $3M IMHO. Over $300k per extra team "+" by my most optimistic estimation ... which is not a very good rate of return if the Oilers hope to ever become a 100 point (+40) type of team with their payroll budget.

Granted ... its tough to guess how much impact a player will have. But leopards don't change their spots ... and IMO the best indicator of furutre performance is past performance.

As for the dollar values of individual draft selecting spots (e.g. a 50th overall pick) ... I really don't know, though one would hope that the Oilers hockey ops guys have this pegged pretty accurately. And with the signing bonuses, risk of failure, development costs, rate of RFA salary inflation, etc ... I suspect that it isn't nearly as high as we intuitively feel it is here.

Good post igor. My feeling is that if he can make Dvorak better, then that's also a positive of having him back. I won't dispute on the points you make because you most likely have the stats to prove it, but if Dvorak can score 10 more goals, then that would be great. I think the Oilers have enough good defensive player (Dvo on his line) to make up for his defensive shortcomings. At least I hope.

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Old
08-19-2004, 03:59 PM
  #30
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[QUOTE=oilswell]But that's not the complete story unless you don't have a salary ceiling.

Imagine you have a 1800 calorie diet that you can't go over. You fill up on low-nutrition junk foods like 2 Cokes and a bag of Cheetos then you've got work cut out for you getting your RDAs of the good stuff. Likewise if you have a fixed 32M payroll then adding UFAs is like treating yourself to some snack foods. The issue then is whether Nedved is more like Twinkies or like a Soy and Broccoli salad. According to igor's analysis (which I trust more than any other I've seen) Nedved's probably something like a sweetend yoghurt or maybe an apple: it has some stuff that would be good for you but is high enough in sugar that you may have to cut back on the bran flakes in the morning.



Anyone else hungry all of a sudden? Sweetened yogurt - that's good. My worry is that Nedved is like KFC - a half hour after supper you're asking yourself "Why oh why did I eat that crap?!"
I'd hate to overpay for a stomach ache.

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Old
08-19-2004, 04:17 PM
  #31
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I have yet to regret a meal at KFC

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Old
08-19-2004, 04:27 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfpack
My worry is that Nedved is like KFC - a half hour after supper you're asking yourself "Why oh why did I eat that crap?!"
I'd hate to overpay for a stomach ache.
Nah, that meal sounds more like Jiri Dopita.

Nedved would be more like Chinese takeout...tastes great, but a half hour later you're hungry again.

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Old
08-19-2004, 04:35 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Digger12
Nah, that meal sounds more like Jiri Dopita.

Nedved would be more like Chinese takeout...tastes great, but a half hour later you're hungry again.
Or like Hooters...the only reason you'd eat there is because of the hot babe that comes with the meal.

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Old
08-19-2004, 04:41 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by USC Trojans
Or like Hooters...the only reason you'd eat there is because of the hot babe that comes with the meal.
We have a winner. That was awesome!

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08-19-2004, 04:41 PM
  #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USC Trojans
Or like Hooters...the only reason you'd eat there is because of the hot babe that comes with the meal.
:lol that was good!

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Old
08-19-2004, 04:51 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. van Nostrin
Good post igor. My feeling is that if he can make Dvorak better, then that's also a positive of having him back. I won't dispute on the points you make because you most likely have the stats to prove it, but if Dvorak can score 10 more goals, then that would be great. I think the Oilers have enough good defensive player (Dvo on his line) to make up for his defensive shortcomings. At least I hope.
Well ... Last year York/Dvorak outchanced the bad guys by pretty close to 2:1 when they played together [I wasn't actually counting very often, but that's a decent estimate I think].

With Nedved/Dvorak the scoring chances stayed good ... maybe went up a bit, the finishing was better ... and the scoring chances against roughly doubled.

Net effect ---> Dvorak got good scoring (point-getting) results with Nedved ... but at EV+/- 0 during that stretch, it was his worst spell of outscoring results. That's a recipe for making Dvorak more expensive and less effective (in terms of outscoring) in one fell swoop.

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08-19-2004, 05:24 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
Well ... Last year York/Dvorak outchanced the bad guys by pretty close to 2:1 when they played together [I wasn't actually counting very often, but that's a decent estimate I think].

With Nedved/Dvorak the scoring chances stayed good ... maybe went up a bit, the finishing was better ... and the scoring chances against roughly doubled.

Net effect ---> Dvorak got good scoring (point-getting) results with Nedved ... but at EV+/- 0 during that stretch, it was his worst spell of outscoring results. That's a recipe for making Dvorak more expensive and less effective (in terms of outscoring) in one fell swoop.
Well my head and heart are battling on the whole Nedved issue. I see your point igor about Nedved's overall contribution to the team given his mediocre ES +/- stats - and more importantly in my mind - his influence on Dvorak. Radek played some solid hockey pre-Nedved, but his overall game suffered post-Nedved when he took a more offensive mind-set.

.....but it's also nice to see some skill and flair in the lineup and Nedved certainly provides that.

I guess the issue is whether Nedved's on-ice presense can have some sort of positive impact on the financial bottom line. His overall hockey impact will likely be small (maybe a couple extra points as you say) but maybe his play can increase revenue and off-set his salary in some other way (more bums in seats but we are already sold out). Otherwise I agree that signing him may not be the best way to spend the dollars and we should look at other alternatives through trade.

It's a tough call but we really shouldn't go any higher than $3 million for him because that money CAN be spent in other ways that leads to more points in the standings..

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Old
08-19-2004, 05:26 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
A team like the Oilers needs to maximize their value for every last nickel spent on payroll. igor's post alludes to this fact. UFAs tend to be (are always?) overpriced relative to their RFA counterparts.
I agree wholeheartedly with what you are saying.

However.

Salary is what you make of it. And what I mean by that is this:

- if you sign an UFA to fill a hole you are out in salary but up in player assets
- if you trade 2.5 million in salary for a RFA making 2.5 million in salary you are even in salary and even in player assets

BUT consider

- if you sign an UFA and then trade equivalent salary for prospects then you are even in player assets and even in salary

The difference is that you have your choice of what salary to pay. In other words - sign Nedved and then trade Isbister and ? for draft picks or prospects.

In this way you DO maximize return on salary. UFA's are overpriced compared to RFA's in terms of salary cost but not asset cost. And RFA costs a whole whack more. Therefore the trick is to trade salary value and not asset value.

Isbister and and one of Cross, Horcoff, Reasoner, etc would almost make up the cost of Nedved. The trick, to repeat the phrase is to find the combo that means the least to the teams success.

You know - somewhere in there I know I am trying to say something that makes sense but I know I haven't communicated it well - sorry guys.


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Old
08-19-2004, 05:49 PM
  #39
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ahhh, finally a thread where I use my expertise

I have yet to regret a meal at KFC

I have the ability to convert KFC in its solid form to a gaseous state without any significant loss in mole weight. That means a 3 piece with gravy and hot sauce can aromitize an entire building with little or no effort. It is not called slippery bird for nothing.

Or like Hooters...the only reason you'd eat there is because of the hot babe that comes with the meal.

you have obviously never had their salt and pepper shrimp (available in 10's or 20's).


As for Nedved and Devo not putting up out of this world numbers in their short time together, lets remember that it takes a while for any linemates to gel. IMO, 16 games is not enough time. Their games are compatable and there is a very good chance they will have a lot more success next year.

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Old
08-19-2004, 06:13 PM
  #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich

Or like Hooters...the only reason you'd eat there is because of the hot babe that comes with the meal.

you have obviously never had their salt and pepper shrimp (available in 10's or 20's).
I remember the first time I went to hooters as a teenager I was so disappointed when I discovered it wasn't actually a topless restaurant. How could I have been so misled?

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Old
08-19-2004, 06:29 PM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nikeisevil
I remember the first time I went to hooters as a teenager I was so disappointed when I discovered it wasn't actually a topless restaurant. How could I have been so misled?
Well, it's not like there are actually Crazy Horses in Edmonton either.

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Old
08-19-2004, 08:40 PM
  #42
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YKOil, I think I get what you're trying to say.

I think it's far too simplistic to say that Izzy + is "worth" only $250K to the Oilers. The UFA/RFA aspect, the cost to the team in salary vs. assets, etc., all make it an "apples & oranges" thing.

It's a nice feeling to at least see the Oilers seriously hunting for a UFA to add to the team, and a fairly high-skill type, too. Cross doesn't really count (SHOULD be our 7th guy if all goes well), and Oates was a noble effort (I still remember the jubilation around here at the time of his signing), but Nedved would be an important 'signal' to the team and the fans that the Oilers are looking to break out of that 'farm team for the rest of the NHL' syndrome in some new ways.

I do have some mixed feelings about Nedved being signed at that kind of coin, but it's more the term that would concern me. I *believe* (with no facts to back that up - too lazy) that Nedved's play might suffer some having the comfort of a 3-year guaranteed deal, whereas a lower base salary with bonuses would give him more incentive.

However, I STRONGLY HOPE that him coming here would improve the PP by a few spots - if that's the case, then it's hard to imagine that the Oilers wouldn't get more than another 2 points in the standings over a whole year. We all know how many games we lost a point or two by not being able to bury a PP goal last season...

So...if he signs, I'll be cautiously hopeful that the team's overall performance will be better by about 6 points (PP being better, Dvorak potting another 5 goals, York being healthy all year, no Salo in net!).

If he doesn't sign, I'll be cautiously hopeful that Lowe can pull something out of his...'hat'...to address the 1st-line center issue.

Hell, he might even wait to see what Schremp looks like in camp (whenever that may be) before pulling the trigger on a trade.

Yes, that would be a loooong shot, but we know the kid's not lacking in nerve or talent!

Bart

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Old
08-19-2004, 08:54 PM
  #43
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I think we all need to remember that last year was really weird. We had a horrid Salo for the balance and had a vacant forward position occupied by a washed up Adam Oates. This team would be instantly better just by the subtraction of Salo and Oates and the addition of Nedved. My biggest problem with the Oilers is that they don't know how to spend their money. Isbister is still making 1.4M, as is Laraque. 4th liners aren't worth that money. If they don't sign Nedved for the sake of keeping overpriced pluggers it'll be a big mistake.

Also, Lowe wasn't too gun shy when he signed Comrie to a huge contract. He collected more than Lowe is offering Nedved. Both basically have(had) the same leverage as UFAs or impending UFAs. Nedved is more proven, Comrie was younger with potential. Calgary has done a great job to keep Iginla and supply their checking/energy lines with affordable hard working guys. Lowe should think about that.

Also, I have a bit of a problem with Lowe jetting to Team Canada's camp. That stuff is almost entirely in the coaches hands now. The selection process is over. I'd rather see him trying to hammer out a deal with Nedved than darting to Ottawa to chill with Gretz. Maybe that's just my point of view, but I think the priorities are a little off and if I had a stake in the Oilers (which as a paying fan, I do) I'd be (and am) a little miffed.

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Old
08-19-2004, 09:28 PM
  #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YKOil
- if you trade 2.5 million in salary for a RFA making 2.5 million in salary you are even in salary and even in player assets
Not even. To even get the argument going the assumption has to be that you'll only take on salary if the player you're getting back is an upgrade over the one you're sending over. Yes, that means a salary dump by the other team and its definitely the reason I don't see it happening.

Quote:
if you sign an UFA and then trade equivalent salary for prospects then you are even in player assets and even in salary.
The difference is that you have your choice of what salary to pay. In other words - sign Nedved and then trade Isbister and ? for draft picks or prospects.
Only works to your advantage if the players you're getting rid of are as bad a bargain as the UFA. Sutter wouldn't turn Regehr into picks to pick up a crappy 2M UFA would he? So if Isbister is poor value for $$ then what kind of futures value will you get from him? The very best scenario I can think of is if you have players on your roster that are even poorer value than the UFA you're picking up.

That, or you'd have to find someone who is just a plain sucker for your guys and overpays. I'm total crap with trades, but on that note: what would X and Y be to make this equation work?

Brewer + Isbister + X = Okinen + Y

Just to pick something out of the blue from the "overpaid" guys that have been criticized lately.

Quote:
You know - somewhere in there I know I am trying to say something that makes sense but I know I haven't communicated it well - sorry guys.
I'm not sure I get it but I'm sure its my fault. A great post. Thanks for helping think this through!

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Old
08-19-2004, 09:57 PM
  #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolfpack
...
My worry is that Nedved is like KFC - a half hour after supper you're asking yourself "Why oh why did I eat that crap?!"
I'd hate to overpay for a stomach ache.
I haven't had KFC in a long time ... probably for over a year.

Then a couple of hours ago my missus picked up KFC on her way back from town. Hmmm ... queue eerie music.

I hope that it's not an omen.

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Old
08-19-2004, 10:09 PM
  #46
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Sakich
ahhh, finally a thread where I use my expertise
LOL, great post. Aromitize.

And NOW...Your...!EDMONTON OILEERRRSS!
....presented as a 10 course meal:

PRIME RIB with STEAMED CARROT & PINTO BEANS (Smyth Horcoff Pisani)
SPICY BURRITO with SHRIMP CASSEROLE & MEAT PIE (Torres York Dvorak)
HERO SANDWICH with TURKEY DRUMSTICK & CAVIAR PUFF PASTRY (Moreau Reasoner Hemsky)
GIANT CORN DOG with POTATOES & CHICKEN NUGGETS (Ritabister Stoll Laraque)


ALLIGATOR GUMBO with JASMINE RICE (Smith Staios)
FRIED EGGPLANT with SMOKED ALBATROSS (Cross Brewer)
CHICKPEA VINDALOO with SMALL HABANERO SMOOTHIE (Ulanov Bergeron)
CHOPPED LIVER (Semenov)

CURED SEAL STEW (Conklin)
KALAKUKKO (Markannen)


Edit: insert obligatory MacT blender / combo jokes here.


Last edited by oilswell: 08-19-2004 at 10:33 PM.
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Old
08-19-2004, 10:18 PM
  #47
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
LOL, great post. Aromatize.

And NOW...Your...!EDMONTON OILEERRRSS!
....presented as a 10 course meal:

PRIME RIB with STEAMED CARROT & PINTO BEANS (Smyth Horcoff Pisani)
SPICY BURRITO with SHRIMP CASSEROLE & MEAT PIE (Torres York Dvorak)
HERO SANDWICH with TURKEY DRUMSTICK & CAVIAR PUFF PASTRY (Moreau Reasoner Hemsky)
GIANT CORN DOG with POTATOES & CHICKEN NUGGETS (Ritabister Stoll Laraque)


ALLIGATOR GUMBO with JASMINE RICE (Smith Staios)
FRIED EGGPLANT with SMOKED ALBATROSS (Cross Brewer)
CHICKPEA VINDALOO with SMALL HABANERO SMOOTHIE (Ulanov Bergeron)
CHOPPED LIVER (Semenov)

CURED SEAL STEW (Conklin)
KALAKUKKO (Markannen)
:lol :lol

Oh man... tears from laughing

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Old
08-19-2004, 10:47 PM
  #48
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only one more day till nedved decides. kevin lowe should just give him 500000 more and be done with the deal.

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08-19-2004, 11:36 PM
  #49
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Originally Posted by smyth94_nedved93
only one more day till nedved decides. kevin lowe should just give him 500000 more and be done with the deal.
J.P.? Is that you?

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Old
08-19-2004, 11:45 PM
  #50
Wolfpack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oilswell
LOL, great post. Aromitize.

And NOW...Your...!EDMONTON OILEERRRSS!
....presented as a 10 course meal:

PRIME RIB with STEAMED CARROT & PINTO BEANS (Smyth Horcoff Pisani)
SPICY BURRITO with SHRIMP CASSEROLE & MEAT PIE (Torres York Dvorak)
HERO SANDWICH with TURKEY DRUMSTICK & CAVIAR PUFF PASTRY (Moreau Reasoner Hemsky)
GIANT CORN DOG with POTATOES & CHICKEN NUGGETS (Ritabister Stoll Laraque)


ALLIGATOR GUMBO with JASMINE RICE (Smith Staios)
FRIED EGGPLANT with SMOKED ALBATROSS (Cross Brewer)
CHICKPEA VINDALOO with SMALL HABANERO SMOOTHIE (Ulanov Bergeron)
CHOPPED LIVER (Semenov)

CURED SEAL STEW (Conklin)
KALAKUKKO (Markannen)


Edit: insert obligatory MacT blender / combo jokes here.

That is priceless!!!

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