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08-19-2004, 05:20 PM
  #1
theoil
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Budget Time

It is getting close to the season that will not be played and there are a few contracts for KLowe to tidy up.

As I understand it there are currently 12 forward positions signed up for the coming year for a total of $15,985,000. This is based upon numbers posted at nhlpa.com plus vague memories that Rita signed for $800,000. Please correct me if I am wrong.

This leaves Dvorak and an offer for Nedved still outstanding to bring us to the usual 14 bodies required to fill an NHL team.

We currently have 5 defencemen under contract leaving us 2 positions short of a full load. The five under contract are scheduled to make $7,400,000.

This leaves Smith and Bergeron as the two players whose rights are owned by the Oilers who are not signed as yet.

We have two goalies under contract for a total of $2,175,000 and the roster is full.

Now if my math is any good that means that the current on - ice talent is scheduled to make $25,560,000 over an 82 game schedule.

There are widely published reports that Nedved has been offered $3 mil and I am arbitrarily going to arbitrarily offer Dvorak $2.2 just so that I can reach a total which is then $21.185 million for the forwards.

Jason Smith is probably going to need at least $2.5 and Bergeron will be looking for at least $.8 million to take the budget for the defence to $10.65

In total then the teams budget including those signed and those speculated upon comes to $34,100,000 without bonuses or call-ups.

I do not know what the budget is this year but let us assume that we are talking $35 million because otherwise we are looking at dumping salary and Lowe says that is not the case.

Now, I have been told that I tend to oversimplify things but in my opinion that is usually by people that don't know how to uncomplicate things.

On a team that has a $35 million budget it would be my contention that the forwards have a budget of $20 mil, the defence $10 mil and the goalies $5 mil. (Hence my reputation for oversimplifying).

I break this down in the following manner. First line $8, 2nd line $6, 3rd line $3 and the fourth line plus two pb guys $3. Now there is a lot of speculation on this board as to who should play where so I will leave that part of my analysis out of this post but let me say that within this breakdown there is always room on the Oilers for an underpaid younger player to balance out a higher paid player in his prime. And with the pursuit of Nedved it seems that we might even have reached the position where we can afford one overpaid ufa.

On defence I allocate $5 mil for my first two, $3 for my second pairing and $2 for my final 3.

In goal I figure you need $4.25 for a starting goalie in his prime to be competitive and that leaves $750,000 for your backup. And in all of this I repeat that there is no contingency money in case of injuries and call-ups.

Now the current team has spent $1.185 over on the forwards and $650,000 over on the defence and robbed the goalie budget of the approximately $2 mil to pay for the largesse.

In other words, we cannot afford an nhl quality starting goalie in his prime with our current lineup.

Just some meandering thoughts about how I see Lowe's job in trying to put this team together.

Too simple?

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Old
08-19-2004, 06:53 PM
  #2
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Interesting point. Still quite a few factors to it though, such as how much revenue will the team bring in with no playoff games. Also an amount per playoff series. If the first number is more than $35 mil than sure we could add some salary. Don't the Oilers budget based on 3 playoff games?

How about some more hypotheticals or less simplifications. IMO an enforcer should not be making what ours is. Georges Laraque is overpaid, some would say grossly. So how much does an enforcer make in your hypothetical situation? I'd say around 500-1.2.. wide scale yes but it depends if it's a Brookbank/Worrel type of someone useful like Simon. Simon should make more than 1.2 but he's not a typical enforcer... he can actually play hockey!

Some would say some of our other players are overpaid, maybe even our newest signed goalie. I think these also need to be taken into account to paint a clear picture.

For the record I think we can and should spend a little more than we do. Hockey is a business and requires some risks, such as signing an Iginla and maybe making it to the Cup finals. Our businessmen owners are true businessmen. Sometimes ya gotta spend money to make money.

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Old
08-19-2004, 07:03 PM
  #3
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That makes sense to me theoil, good stuff.

Glad to see that it appears that the Oilers will be maintaining the player payroll, maybe even increasing it this year.

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Old
08-19-2004, 07:15 PM
  #4
Asiaoil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by igor
That makes sense to me theoil, good stuff.

Glad to see that it appears that the Oilers will be maintaining the player payroll, maybe even increasing it this year.
Hey igor - so the whole idea is to outscore the opposition and ES +/- is a good indicator of a player's success in doing that. Would it be possible to combine the ES +/- and salary to give some sort cost-benefit ratio for each player? Obviously a big salary with a negative +/- is bad while a healthy +/- and small salary is good. I can't remember if you did something like this already Could be interesting to see who contributes most given their salary (and who doesn't) and what mix of players might give us the best results given our budget.

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Old
08-19-2004, 09:50 PM
  #5
oiled
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i guess noone knows for sure but does anyone know aproxamely how much the oil have to spend?

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