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10-06-2011, 09:17 AM
  #101
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Nice to see Lucia off to a good start.

Anyone know what type of point pace in the BCHL is something to target? 1.5-2 PPG? Literally know next to nothing about that league.
Last 4 years' league leader points - games played:

93 - 57
120 - 56 (Beau Bennett)
99 - 59
102 - 60

2 per game is possible, but 1.5 per is very good.

75 points in 60 is almost always close to top 10, and 65 in 60 is top 20.

Lucia is 18th according to today's stats 7 points in 5 games, but it's also tied for 12th. League leader has 10.

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10-06-2011, 09:17 AM
  #102
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Nice to see Lucia off to a good start.

Anyone know what type of point pace in the BCHL is something to target? 1.5-2 PPG? Literally know next to nothing about that league.
Well, I'm assuming that these are the years directly prior to their college freshman years but...

2009-10
Beau Bennett - 120 points in 56 games
Mark Zengerle - 120 points in 60 games

I think 80+ points in 60 games would be a good first step.


Last edited by Dr Jan Itor: 10-06-2011 at 09:42 AM.
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Old
10-06-2011, 10:31 AM
  #103
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Jonas Brodin and Charlie Coyle are in for sure. Gustafson, the swedish goalie. Thats pretty much it I think.
thanks fox i knew i forgot someone

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10-06-2011, 12:53 PM
  #104
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Brodin finishes outside of the top 50 of HF's Prospect Rankings. Defensemen listed above him, in the 41-50 range include:

Ryan Murphy
Justin Faulk
Simon Despres
Oscar Klefbom
Jamie Oleksiak

Brodin was an honorable mention. Not too surprising, due to Brodin's relatively unflashy game.

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10-06-2011, 01:20 PM
  #105
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He also has a whopping 1 assist in 8 games. Not grabbing headlines with those stats.

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10-06-2011, 01:33 PM
  #106
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I wouldnt have expected Brodin to be in the top 50 but he is absolutely a better prospect than Faulk, Despres, Klefbom or Oleksiak.

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10-06-2011, 01:36 PM
  #107
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With so many draft picks this year like Scheifele, RNH and Couturier looking like they might end up in the NHL this season, Phillips might get a shot on Team Canada unless he's ineligible for a reason I'm not familiar with.
He's eligible.

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Nice to see Lucia off to a good start.

Anyone know what type of point pace in the BCHL is something to target? 1.5-2 PPG? Literally know next to nothing about that league.
Not sure but the Vees were averaging 6 goals/game for their first few.

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10-06-2011, 01:39 PM
  #108
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I wouldnt have expected Brodin to be in the top 50 but he is absolutely a better prospect than Faulk, Despres, Klefbom or Oleksiak.
nah, he's the next First Round Bust. put him on the banner now!

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10-06-2011, 01:52 PM
  #109
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nah, he's the next First Round Bust. put him on the banner now!
First you kill off Barker and Nystrom, now you're going after Brodin?

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10-06-2011, 04:14 PM
  #110
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Ya, Brodin's not a flashy player so fully expected to see him get passed over. That's fine with me, I think he'll be a strong pro regardless. Really enjoy Faulk's game and think he'll be a very good player for Carolina.

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10-06-2011, 04:41 PM
  #111
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Where did Granlund, Coyle, Zucker land in that top 50?

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10-06-2011, 04:51 PM
  #112
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It's only 41-50 so far.

Jason Zucker will surely be ignored and miss it all together.

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10-06-2011, 04:57 PM
  #113
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It's only 41-50 so far.

Jason Zucker will surely be ignored and miss it all together.
Yup. If anything he'd be in the 41-50 range and since he's not there, he probably won't be ranked any higher.

Granlund should be top 10, Coyle top 15-20 or so. Scandella or Hackett might crack somewhere between 30-40, but I doubt it.

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10-06-2011, 05:05 PM
  #114
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Yup. If anything he'd be in the 41-50 range and since he's not there, he probably won't be ranked any higher.
Pretty much. A lot of it has to with the "writers" for either team. It's also why we'll see Beau Bennett, a lesser prospect on the same Denver team, in the top 40 somewhere which is honestly laughable at best. And of course Jaden Schwartz will also be somewhere within the top 15, perhaps top 10...

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10-06-2011, 05:11 PM
  #115
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Through three guys.

I'm calling it, Coyle + Philips + Setoguchi for Burns + 2nd is going to be one of the best trades in Minnesota's history for sports.

Coyle and Philips along would I think be enough for Burns but Setoguchi for a 2nd? Nice!
Can't really shorten the trade. Setoguchi was obviously valued high as was Coyle, and the move up was necessary to make up the difference. I could make a large wall of text explaining some crazy theories(going all the way back to the 2009 draft) regarding the move but I don't think anyone would read it.

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i know it's too early to say but besides Granlund, Larsson, Zucker and maybe BB anyone know any other possible wild prospect could be in wjc this winter...
Coyle and Zucker should be looked upon as go-to guys on the American team.

Granlund should be the best player at the tournament if he does indeed go. If he hadn't missed last year's WJC, I'm not sure he'd go but since he did I expect him to be there.

Larsson will probably be the captain of Sweden's team with Gustafsson in the mix in net. Brodin should play a significant role on the point as well.

Nice to know we have prospects on 3 medal contending teams expected to play significant roles. Wouldn't be surprised if one of our prospects is the MVP or we end up with multiple players on the all-star team.

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I wouldnt have expected Brodin to be in the top 50 but he is absolutely a better prospect than Faulk, Despres, Klefbom or Oleksiak.
Different skill-sets. Despres is somewhat of a surprise for me, I don't feel he showed more than guys like Scandella or David Savard did at the junior level yet he's got a lot more hype out of the Q.

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Originally Posted by tyratoku View Post
Yup. If anything he'd be in the 41-50 range and since he's not there, he probably won't be ranked any higher.

Granlund should be top 10, Coyle top 15-20 or so. Scandella or Hackett might crack somewhere between 30-40, but I doubt it.
Scandella and Hackett won't make it. Coyle was 20 on their last ranking and with players only added he's more likely to move down than up.

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10-06-2011, 05:21 PM
  #116
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I could make a large wall of text explaining some crazy theories(going all the way back to the 2009 draft) regarding the move but I don't think anyone would read it.
The season hasn't started yet. I've got some time on my hands and would certainly be interested in reading walls of text with crack-pot theories. Feel free!

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10-06-2011, 05:23 PM
  #117
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Can't really shorten the trade. Setoguchi was obviously valued high as was Coyle, and the move up was necessary to make up the difference. I could make a large wall of text explaining some crazy theories(going all the way back to the 2009 draft) regarding the move but I don't think anyone would read it.
I'd read it.

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10-06-2011, 05:30 PM
  #118
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It's only 41-50 so far.

Jason Zucker will surely be ignored and miss it all together.
If Brodin is off the board then surely Zucker isn't close. Would guess both Coyle and Granlund remain though it will be interesting to see if Coyle's stock goes down now.

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10-06-2011, 05:45 PM
  #119
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If Zucker isn't, and i agree he probably won't, that goes to show how much cred college hockey gets around here.

The Wild and their prospects are pretty much on everyone's ignore list, outside of MG.

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10-06-2011, 05:49 PM
  #120
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If Zucker isn't, and i agree he probably won't, that goes to show how much cred college hockey gets around here.

The Wild and their prospects are pretty much on everyone's ignore list, outside of MG.
Part of it has to do with how each HF team writer is grading out these prospects, though. Which is generally all over the map. When the Wild's "writer" grades everything on the low end while others have a different methodology, there's really no chance to be really strongly represented on list like this that the site puts out. Part of the problem, however, is that the Wild's "writer" doesn't view many, if any, games from most of the team's prospects. Which really makes you wonder why he's writing about the team in the first place...

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10-06-2011, 05:51 PM
  #121
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Part of the problem, however, is that the Wild's "writer" doesn't view many, if any, games from most of the team's prospects. Which really makes you wonder why he's writing about the team in the first place...
Someone had to jump on the grenade?

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10-06-2011, 05:55 PM
  #122
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Part of it has to do with how each HF team writer is grading out these prospects, though. Which is generally all over the map. When the Wild's "writer" grades everything on the low end while others have a different methodology, there's really no chance to be really strongly represented on list like this that the site puts out. Part of the problem, however, is that the Wild's "writer" doesn't view many, if any, games from most of the team's prospects. Which really makes you wonder why he's writing about the team in the first place...
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Someone had to jump on the grenade?
I'd be surprised if that wasn't the reason.

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Old
10-06-2011, 06:01 PM
  #123
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The season hasn't started yet. I've got some time on my hands and would certainly be interested in reading walls of text with crack-pot theories. Feel free!
I'd read as well as long as it's formatted in a way that makes it readable. A serious wall of text I will not even bother. It could tell me how to live forever and I wouldn't even bother.

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10-06-2011, 06:23 PM
  #124
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Alright crazy theories it is. I always try to make my walls of text readable with paragraphs .

It starts back in 09, Fletcher's first draft. We owned the 12th overall pick. We ended up moving back to 16 to take Nick Leddy, but Fletcher hinted that there was a deal "involving an NHL player" for the #12 pick. Most theories at the time was that the player was Ryan Clowe from the Sharks. Devin Setoguchi was coming off a 31 goal rookie campaign, perhaps Chuck Fletcher inquired about his availability instead, seeing as San Jose was strong in 09(and pretty much all recent history) up front. Yes, Setoguchi's value would have trumped the #12 pick in 2009, but there could have been more pieces involved. If the Clowe deal was truly on the table San Jose was willing to move a top-6 forward for a deal built on a 1st round pick, not NHL talent.

We'll then go to the 2010 draft. Charlie Coyle was someone who most people knew of as he was consistently ranked in the 20-35 range, but coming from the EJHL nobody really knew how good he was, or what his upside would be. He went late in the 1st. We took Brett Bulmer at #39. Like Coyle, Bulmer was a power forward project who's upside was in question. We've shown a strong commitment to the NCAA route in recent years, stronger than the CHL route. By the sounds of things Brent Flahr was all over Charlie Coyle when trade talks began in 2011, so was he someone we targeted in 2010? Did we try to move up to get him?

Then onto the trade at this year's draft. It's pretty obvious San Jose needed help on defense and needed to shake-up their line-up. They initiated the trade, likely making the majority of their roster available. Maybe we showed interest in Seto before, maybe we didn't. But fit-wise, he made alot of sense. Fletcher wanted shooters and we've been sold on Mikael Granlund having success as a center in this league. Joe Pavelski's a better player in my opinion and could have been involved, but fit-wise he's a natural center and isn't the shooter Seto is(Pavs has a good shot though). Clowe, again I could have seen him being involved but if we didn't bite on him in 2009 why would we now? Coyle, Flahr was all over him and rightfully so. He made a smooth transition from the EJHL to the NCAA and was incredible at the WJC.

So Coyle and Setoguchi great, but we're not at July 1st yet, we can't talk extension. We're not making that deal without getting an idea of what Brent Burns wants contractually, as he's shown interest in remaining with the team, much more than Gaborik. We've seen the Hawks model of getting a bunch of guys hitting their stride around the same time. We need a prospect sooner rather than later, and after Coyle, lets be honest, San Jose wasn't very strong. So we want that 1st rounder this year, we want another strong prospect and we don't want to wait another year.

All up to this point we were pulling the strings, but San Jose's not giving up their top prospect, a 24 year old top-9 forward they just gave an extension to, and their 1st round pick to get Brent Burns with one year on his deal. They need the pot sweetened. They're looking to win now, they don't care if the prospect is a 2011 or 2012 pick. The 2012 draft is more promising anyways and the Wild aren't going to be picking in the 50s when they're moving their best d-man after missing the playoffs 3 years in a row, and haven't had success in the UFA market in the past. With no 2nd in this year's draft and limited internal trade options, we're not getting a 2nd 1st this year without this or another Brent Burns trade.

If we wait till July 1st to find out what contractual demands Burns has, any interested team will want to negotiate prior to trade. We don't know if San Jose will still be happy with offering Coyle and Setoguchi if Burns is demanding a significant contract, and we want that 1st round pick. A 2012 2nd is unlikely to pay dividends until 2015 at the earliest, and Fletcher isn't going to have a job then if he doesn't improve. He can afford to lose that pick. He had success in 2010 moving back up into the late 2nd(also did it this year, but that hadn't happened), so he knows it's possible. He's also not made the same expectations as his first 2 seasons so trading players for picks/prospects is also a much easier decision.

Done deal.

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Old
10-06-2011, 06:32 PM
  #125
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Good write-up and I feel that's about as close of reasoning as to the actual thought process as there is.

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