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Old
09-27-2011, 01:48 PM
  #1
Beacon
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Season Forecast

Most of the season forecasts on this forum have us finishing in the 6-7 spot, then making a playoff run for at least 1-2 series wins. To be honest, I have no idea how that works. If you are a 6-7 spot, you are the underdog, so either we won't be very good and likely lose in the first round or we will be better than a 6-7 spot.

Last year, I wrote that we are substantially the same as the year before, so we will either not make the playoffs, or do so on luck and go nowhere in the playoffs. People accused me of trolling just to upset others because nobody wants to be told at the start of the season that his team is going nowhere, but that's how I saw things. I thought that we should trade Rosie, Frolov and Prospal for prospects and picks, and just accept that we are better off with a higher draft pick than with those players. We should, I suggested, let our youth show what it's worth, rather than plugging holes with aging vets.

This year, I think just the opposite. If anything, I think this board is understating how good this team is. Last year's development of Stepan, Anisimov, Boyle, Prust, Sauer, McDonagh, as well as the acquisition of Brad Richards and Mike Rupp gives us a deeper, physically stronger, more offensively creative team. This is not a 6-7 seed team.

Here's my analysis.

Last year, we scored 233 goals and gave up 198. We were #14 in offense and tied for #5 in defense. I expect our defense to remain about the same. McDonaugh replaced Rosie midway through the season and should do a good job. The replacement of Gilroy/McCabe with Erixon will mean that, if anything, defensive play will get better. I think expecting to give up around the same 198 goals is reasonable.

Now onto offense.

ADDITIONS:


Richards: 25 goals
Rupp: 10 goals
TOTAL: 35 goals

SUBTRACTIONS (those who scored over 5 goals):

Prospal: 9
Frolov: 7
TOTAL: 16

LIKELY IMPROVEMENTS

Gaborik: add 20 goals for a total of 42. He averaged 48 goals per 82 games prior to last year, and he never had a guy like Richards feeding him. If he clicks with Richards, he could get over 50. I think expecting 42 (a few goals below his average) is reasonable.

Wolski: Add 10 goals for a total of 16 Averaged 20 goals per 82 games until last season. He scored 6 in half a season for the Rangers. Expecting another 10 over the course of the full season is reasonable.

Zuccarello: Add 5 goals for a total of 11. He will probably spend the whole season with the Rangers. If not, someone else will score these 11 goals in his spot.

TOTAL: Add 35 goals.

LIKELY REGRESSION

Boyle: Take off 7 goals for a total of 14. He had a great year last season, but this time, he won't get a chance to play as much and may not be as lucky. While he may actually be improved over last year, I think we should cut his goal scoring by 1/3.

Prust: Take out 5 goals for a total of 8. I don't expect him to score as much because of fewer minutes played assuming there will be fewer injuries all at once. If there will be as many injuries as last year, then another player will lose these 5 goals.

Christensen: Take off 7 goals for a total of 4. He has some offensive ability, but won't play as much this year, so I am reducing his goals by 2/3.

Stepan/Anisimov: With the addition of Brad, they will get less ice-time, so they will lose 5 goals (combined).

Someone having an off-season: Take out 5-10 goals. Someone always has a poor season and/or gets long-term injured. This always happens and fans are always over-optimistic because they don't take this into consideration.

TOTAL: Take out 29-34 goals.

I expect the rest of the team to stay about the same, give or take a few goals. If MDZ proves himself, that could potentially add 5 additional goals, but I am not counting on it right now.

So the Rangers should add 20-25 goals. Basically, I expect the rest of the team to stay about the same, plus whatever Brad Richards produces. Some players (e.g., Gaborik) will benefit from his presence and some will lose out (e.g., Boyle and Stepan), but on average, things will remain as is, plus Brad's production.

=====================================

With 20-25 additional goals, last year the Rangers would have been in the top 5 in scoring, in addition to being in the top 5 in goals against. Another 19 goals would be enough for the Rangers to lead the East and be second in the NHL in goals for/against differential.


CONCLUSION:

The Rangers are going to be much better this year. Their power play should improve, as should their 5-on-5 play. The additional 20-25 goals should be enough for at least 5-6 close losses to be turned into victories, giving them an additional 10-12 points.

This should be enough to contend with Pittsburgh and Philly for the division title. At worst, the Rangers should finish no lower than the 5 seed.

This team will get over 100 points this season for the first time since 1993-94, though that was before the no-loss OT and shootout. This is easily the best team the Rangers iced in 15 years since 1996-97, and it may be the best team we've had in the post-Cup era. Oh and it's very much possible that we will acquire a good LW at some point before the trading deadline.

This year, the Rangers are massively under-appreciated. The Captain Callahan Era will be beautiful.

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Old
09-27-2011, 01:51 PM
  #2
BrianBoyle
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I'm not going to make such specific statistical predicitions, but I do believe that this Ranger team will be the best one since 1997. It has a good mix of talent, physicality, and "heart" -- along with a coach who is a proven winner, and one of the best [potential] 1-2 punches in the league.

I'd be disappointed, barring injuries, if the team finished any lower than 5th place; even then, I think this is a divisional winning caliber team.

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09-27-2011, 02:01 PM
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i like it, i think we are ahead of Philly honestly and depending on Cindy's status is whether or not we will be contending for the atlantic title

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09-27-2011, 02:05 PM
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SauceCheese91
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What's the deal with Prust these days anyways? Is he injured or something?

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09-27-2011, 02:23 PM
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iamitter
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Excluding last year, Gaborik averaged (283-22)/(640-62)*82=~37 goals per 82 games.
Post lockout, he has indeed averaged (38+30+42+13+42)/(65+48+77+17+76)*82 =47.8 goals per season
Even including last year (38+30+42+13+42+22)/(65+48+77+17+76+62)*82, he has averaged 44.4 goals per season.

Wow. I'm a little surprised by how high that is.

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09-27-2011, 02:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Boyle View Post
I'm not going to make such specific statistical predicitions, but I do believe that this Ranger team will be the best one since 1997. It has a good mix of talent, physicality, and "heart" -- along with a coach who is a proven winner, and one of the best [potential] 1-2 punches in the league.

I'd be disappointed, barring injuries, if the team finished any lower than 5th place; even then, I think this is a divisional winning caliber team.

This might be the first time in your lifetime that the Rangers finish as a top-4 team that has a game 7 advantage and is predicted to win the playoff series by bet-makers. It's a nice feeling. It's amazing how long passed since the last time it happened. I was just a little older than you at the time.

Imagine you are a teenager who has all this hope for the team's future going into the (1996-97) season because we just got Wayne Gretzky and the next thing you know, you spend a decade and a half being bummed out every time the season begins, knowing nothing good will happen. You want to lie to yourself and pretend things will be good, but you know it's false.

The next time you turn around and see a team that actually gives you hope, you went from being a teenager to someone more than a dozen years out of college.

Luckily for you, I don't see that kind of a disaster in the coming years.

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Old
09-27-2011, 02:28 PM
  #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamitter View Post
Excluding last year, Gaborik averaged (283-22)/(640-62)*82=~37 goals per 82 games.
Post lockout, he has indeed averaged (38+30+42+13+42)/(65+48+77+17+76)*82 =47.8 goals per season
Even including last year (38+30+42+13+42+22)/(65+48+77+17+76+62)*82, he has averaged 44.4 goals per season.

Wow. I'm a little surprised by how high that is.

Yeah, when I said 48 goals per 82 games, I meant post-lockout.

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Old
09-27-2011, 03:11 PM
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He has played 640 games in 10 seasons so that translates to only 30 goals per season.

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09-27-2011, 03:17 PM
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mullichicken25
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simple explination for going into the playoffs at 6-7 and winning a couple series as an underdog:

Henrik Lundqvist going into beast mode

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09-27-2011, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sbjnyc View Post
He has played 640 games in 10 seasons so that translates to only 30 goals per season.
1.) your post makes no sense
2.) if what you meant to say was that he has scored 283 goals in 10 seasons, so that translates to 28.3 per season, you'd be correct
3.) they were talking about goals per a full 82 game nhl season, where gaborik averages something like 35-37
4.) furthermore, they were mainly talking about gaborik post lockout, which makes more sense when analyzing his current playing ability, no?
5.) before trying to prove people wrong, you should really read things through

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09-27-2011, 03:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mullichicken25 View Post
simple explination for going into the playoffs at 6-7 and winning a couple series as an underdog:

Henrik Lundqvist going into beast mode
Or a significant injury in the middle of the season where they return (Gaborik).

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09-27-2011, 03:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ostrichsized View Post
1.) your post makes no sense
2.) if what you meant to say was that he has scored 283 goals in 10 seasons, so that translates to 28.3 per season, you'd be correct
3.) they were talking about goals per a full 82 game nhl season, where gaborik averages something like 35-37
4.) furthermore, they were mainly talking about gaborik post lockout, which makes more sense when analyzing his current playing ability, no?
5.) before trying to prove people wrong, you should really read things through
I think he makes a good point, though. What is the point of looking at per-82 goal scoring when Gaborik is liable for injury? There's two ways of looking at it. So he is NOT WRONG, so before you go and attempt to put him down, why don't you consider if his point has any validity as well?

Also, aside from your inference of his tone, technically there is no indication he was trying to prove anyone wrong. Just stating a fact (even if the stat is a little bit off.)

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09-27-2011, 05:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NYRamonte10 View Post
I think he makes a good point, though. What is the point of looking at per-82 goal scoring when Gaborik is liable for injury? There's two ways of looking at it. So he is NOT WRONG, so before you go and attempt to put him down, why don't you consider if his point has any validity as well?

Also, aside from your inference of his tone, technically there is no indication he was trying to prove anyone wrong. Just stating a fact (even if the stat is a little bit off.)

The point was to have an objective measurement per game. If you go by the season, it's not fair because one year he played only 17 games.

He was relatively healthy the last two seasons and in the 4 out of 6 seasons since the lockout. Once he missed most of the season, and one he missed 34 games. The other 4 seasons he played more than 80% of the games.

If he scores 48 goals per 82 games and plays 70 actual games, then it comes out to 41 goals. I think expecting this is more than reasonable.

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09-27-2011, 05:28 PM
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I'm not so much making a reference to his scoirng ability, but rather his ability to stay healthy. In the last 7 seasons he has played in 70+ games twice so how many games should we expect him to play?

He has usually been consistent when he is playing though. He normally averages about 4 shots per game and scores on 15% of them for about 0.6 goals per game. But last year he only averaged about 3 shots and scored less often. If he can play, say, 65 games with his normal figures, that's about 40 goals. If last year he played with those metrics he'd have scored an additional 14-15 goals. Should we ignore that?

What I'm omitting is the Richards factor. If Gabs gets back to his old ways and stays healthy I think he can break 50 goals. I'm not sure he can do both. Perhaps I'm being too pessimistic but it comes from a few decades of rangers fandom.

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09-28-2011, 08:50 AM
  #15
NYRamonte10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
The point was to have an objective measurement per game. If you go by the season, it's not fair because one year he played only 17 games.

He was relatively healthy the last two seasons and in the 4 out of 6 seasons since the lockout. Once he missed most of the season, and one he missed 34 games. The other 4 seasons he played more than 80% of the games.

If he scores 48 goals per 82 games and plays 70 actual games, then it comes out to 41 goals. I think expecting this is more than reasonable.

70 may be a little high, but yes that is proper reasoning. You have to look at empirical data, then throw in a dose of your own opinion/prediction.

But just remember this is a "season forecast", not an "82 game forecast". So which piece of data is more relevant? There's got to be a better metric for a player who rarely plays 82 games...

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09-28-2011, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by SauceCheese91 View Post
What's the deal with Prust these days anyways? Is he injured or something?
He had shoulder surgery over the summer.

I believe from reports that he is clear for contact but they're handling with precaution so he's ready to go fort the regular season.

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09-28-2011, 09:09 AM
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donpaulo
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I appreciate the thought process

I think that if one assumes the overall team defense remains about the same (which appears to be a safe bet depending upon Staal's status) then a top 5 unit will break camp and Henrik will put up double digit shutouts AGAIN.

PK shouldn't be an issue either, it simply has to tread water and remain better than avg for the team to be in most games for home and road contests.

Honestly this season is going to boil down to success on the powerplay and injuries (obviously)

If the powerplay improves, I see the NYR having more point streaks where they take a win when last year it would have been a shootout, or being able to score in the 3rd period when down a goal and take it to a shootout.

I really hope NYR makes the hockey news eat crow AGAIN. Lord do they hate NY which I honestly don't understand.

It has been the job of the rangers to pay excessive salaries to old Canadians on the tale end of great careers to play in the big apple, has it not ? THN should be singing their praises for the job security.

Claims such as NY's defense are unproven, somehow are mixed into to "paying overprices UFA contracts". I mean which is it ? unproven or overpriced vet contracts ? geez...

I prefer to view NY's stellar defense as "established" which is what THN would say if it were Montreal or Ottawa with such a squad of young solid defensemen.

Meanwhile Ottawa and Montreal's defense are as old as dirt with guys like Kuba, Spacek, Hal Gill and Gonchar. Were they part of a NY defense you KNOW they would be saying the sky is falling in manhattan.

What would make me happy is to see NYR win at least 1 round of the playoffs. To experience the handshake on the right side of the ledger sheet and go onto a 2nd round is a must from where I sit.

This club is building and getting better, not treading water.

The key for the club over the next few seasons will be to learn consistency and not to play down to the competition... here that devils and islanders ?

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09-28-2011, 10:43 AM
  #18
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It really comes down to one thing. If Gabby and Richards are dominant together, this team will go far. If they are injured or are too often shut down, we will continue to be a middle of the pack team.

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09-28-2011, 11:28 AM
  #19
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Kevin Allen of USA Today picks the Rangers to win the Atlantic

Atlantic Division Preview

Quote:
Outlook: If Richards generates 90 or more points, the Rangers have a shot at their first division title since 1994.

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09-28-2011, 02:45 PM
  #20
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The team is as good as everyone says it is on paper, but we're the Rangers. We're gonna **** somethin up...

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09-28-2011, 03:38 PM
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This team has 4 legitimate All Stars: Lundqvist, Staal, Gaborik and Richards.

Then there is depth in Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisinov, Stepan, Boyle, Girardi, McDonagh, Sauer, etc.

We have only one potential hole: top-6 left wing. It will get plugged by WW, MZA or a possible trade acquisition.

Either way, this is a team with 4 stars, 8 above average NHLers, and quality role players.

This should not be just another #7 squad.

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09-28-2011, 04:16 PM
  #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RangerEsq View Post
This team has 4 legitimate All Stars: Lundqvist, Staal, Gaborik and Richards.

Then there is depth in Callahan, Dubinsky, Anisinov, Stepan, Boyle, Girardi, McDonagh, Sauer, etc.

We have only one potential hole: top-6 left wing. It will get plugged by WW, MZA or a possible trade acquisition.

Either way, this is a team with 4 stars, 8 above average NHLers, and quality role players.

This should not be just another #7 squad.
Derek Stepan might be the perfect fit for that top line LW spot when all is said and done.

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